Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Apr 2007

2007 Draft Round 2 Analysis

My second round analysis at FoxSports.com: I love the Bills getting Paul Posluszny in the second round.

Posted by: Mike on 29 Apr 2007

1
by sam (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 9:16am

Alright, we get it. You've never heard of Justin Durant, therefore he must be a special-teamer and backup, maybe a project to be a starter one day. People said Maurice Jones-Drew was too small to play running back with any impact, except as a third-down guy. Whoops. People said Ray Lewis was too small to be a dominant linebacker. Whoops.

Why trash the Jags personnel guys for taking their 2nd-rated inside linebacker in the draft in the second round? You have no idea where the other 31 teams had him rated, and whether or not he'd be there later in the draft. He was the MEAC defensive POY for three straight years. The Jaguars' head coach is a linebacker. Maybe, just maybe, they know what they are doing. They also have a tremendous history with 2nd-round picks (Jones-Drew, Khalif Barnes is their standout LT, Greg Jones, Rashean Mathis who was from a I-AA school, Mike Pearson who started at LT until he was hurt and they drafted Barnes, and Mo Williams... that's just since 2001).

If they are truly as they say committed to Best Available Player, then don't you have to take the best player on your board? They Jaguars don't need him to start right away with Daryl Smith and Clint Ingram on the outside and Mike Peterson returning from injury.

For those that keep saying Kolb (the Eagles' QB pick) was a bad pick because he would've been there later (or as one genius on ESPN said... 'would of went later') again, nobody knows where other teams had him ranked. I know the Jags wanted him, possibly in Round 2.

2
by Big Cahuna (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 9:28am

It does seem strange that you choose to trash the Jags pick in the same round as GB selected Brandon Jackson. Remember, we could have had Michael Turner with that pick.

3
by Kevin Eleven (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 10:58am

1- Here's what MDS said about the Jags' second round pick: " 2. Jacksonville surprised a lot of people when it took Justin Durant of Hampton. Durant is one of the fastest linebackers in the draft, but he's a project who will take a year or two to adjust to the NFL game. If the Jaguars want to catch up to the Colts in the AFC South, they need guys who can help them win now".

I just don't see a lot for even the most sensitive of Jags fans to get excited about here, and there were many strawman arguments in your post.

4
by james (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 11:21am

MDS,

Branch starting from day 1? Dominant?

The kid couldn't even get up foor the Rose Bowl. How is he gonna be up for training camp? This guy has bust written all over him.

Az botched this draft badly.

5
by Peter (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 12:15pm

#3
How about that whole "WORST PICKS" thing?

6
by Kevin 11 (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 12:27pm

5- Eh...OK, I can see that.

Only time will tell if it's a good selection or not. We could say that about every pick made this weekend, but it wouldn't make for a very interesting read.

7
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 3:39pm

The Colts do this same thing every year. Why bring it up as if it's shocking?

They get starters from late draft picks, and free agent pickups after the draft. They seem to be doing fine with this, so sure, insult it because you don't think it's the right thing to do, but don't be shocked.

8
by db (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 6:23pm

Cam and the Dolphins had better hope that Beck is a great QB and that Quinn is a bust because the head coaches grace period is up with Miami fans.

9
by Not saying (not verified) :: Mon, 04/30/2007 - 5:43am

It was called a bad pick because he's said not to be ready and MDS thinks the Jags need to win now. There was nothing mentioned about special teams. You can dispute whether he is in fact ready, but that doesn't call for such an angry post.

Also, I don't think Ray Lewis was as dominating in his first year that he was later. But, again, time will tell.

10
by sam (not verified) :: Mon, 04/30/2007 - 10:03am

Who said anything about being angry?

I stand by my comments re: Durant. Picking solely on need or to win now is a recipe for failure in the draft because there are no sure picks. The Jaguars felt that Durant was the 2nd best ILB in the draft. The first was already gone, so they took Durant. As much respect as I have for MDS (and it's a lot), I would submit that a team that has had tremendous success evaluating defensive talent (and 2nd/3rd round picks in general) over the last 5 years is better able to judge Durant's readiness to play.

Fact: the Jaguars' only hole that could certainly be filled through obtaining a quality starter in the draft was Free Safety. They need improvement at Wide Receiver but outside of Calvin Johnson there are no sure WR draft picks in any round. Why reach for a WR when he's not your top-rated guy? They took the BAP, which to me is sound drafting.

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