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14 May 2007
One day, we will have a projection system based solely on coach quotes about a player. In this vein, the quotes from this article project Hester to have about 14 catches for 165 yards and 8 carries for 48 yards, most of which will be on bubble screens and reverses. There are easier ways to get 1.5 DPAR.
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 14 May 2007
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Hester run like crazy waterbug. Defenders faked out of jocks. Secret weapon takes Bears to Phoenix. Bet it now. Run, crazy waterbug Hester, run!
Ok, this [insert team name]joe thing is getting old.
I wonder how much Merrill Hoge placing Hester of his Top 5 Offensive Rookie of the Year listed affected the Bears' thinking. One hopes not at all.
It isn't as though he was contributing all that much on defense. They don't need to keep a roster spot open for him to learn offense as they weren't about to cut him anyway. His physical skills would be a bit wasted playing corner in a Tampa 2 anyway. In a couple of years he could be a very dangerous weapon, just in time to have to pay him a fortune in free agency. Yay.
That's excellent news for this Bears fan. He'll be a much better scrambling QB than Grossman.
Oh, wait, Grossman's still throwing? Meh. Now he'll be an inaccurate and erratic QB throwing to a receiver with poor route-running skills. This will end well.
Maybe an inaccurate quarterback throwing to a poor route-runner could actually result in some lucky off-target completions.
#
Maybe an inaccurate quarterback throwing to a poor route-runner could actually result in some lucky off-target completions.
that's true. It could also result in the best NFL follies episode EVER.
You know that Hester's going to take a lateral and throw it.
It does concern me that the Bears seem to have had one mini-camp to work with Garrett Wolfe and have already decided that they need Hester on offense as well.
Does this bode badly for our darting, devilish, daring, diminutive dasher?
More to come in next week's installment of Hester Wolfe and the Gross Man!!!
Mayhaps this is a symptom of playing in the same division as Mike Furrey.
Yeah, this doesn't really excite me all too much. He'll get two or three dozen touches on offense, if that. His role is special teams, everything else is gravy. Mmmmm...gravy.
Best case: Eric Metcalf with the early-90s Browns. Worst case: Eric Metcalf with the late-90s Cardinals/Chargers/Redskins/Packers.
How is this different from when Dante Hall went over to the offense in KC a few years back?
2: I for one don't think the .....joe thing has run its course just yet, give it a bit longer, like thieves passing in the night.
Am I the only person having Peter Warrick flashbacks? WR in the NFL isn't about speed, its about reading the defense and running the route the QB expects from you, then getting separation to make the catch. Other than Tim Brown, how many true burners have been great NFL WRs?
I would just like to add that the ...joe thing has not even come close to hitting its peak yet. I almost posted a Catholic Match Girl XP today just to get CMGJoe going.
13: Good point, but the Bears don't necessarily need Hester to be a great receiver. I would imagine that Hester's biggest impact on offense would be in a first-half-of-2006 Reggie Bush role: someone who doesn't get a lot of touches, but who the defense has to account for no matter what. I was hoping the Bears would have used him in this capacity last year, but I understand that it would have been hard to implement 13+ weeks into the season.
Bottom line: this doesn't really excite me; I would have been more disappointed if they hadn't used Hester on offense at all. Do I expect a ton of production? No. However, it would definitely be nice to see some creativity on offense.
Miami kept trying to find a position other than KR for Hester without success. I wonder why the Bears think they'll do any better.
"I wonder how much Merrill Hoge placing Hester of his Top 5 Offensive Rookie of the Year listed affected the Bears’ thinking. One hopes not at all."
I'm confident that Hoge's opinion had nothing to do with it, which is a good thing.
"It does concern me that the Bears seem to have had one mini-camp to work with Garrett Wolfe and have already decided that they need Hester on offense as well."
From everything I've read, Garrett Wolfe was very impressive at the rookie mini-camp. I saw some clips on TV from the mini-camp, and he exhibited good hands, ran routes well and showed great quickness. I don't think moving Hester to offense had anything to do with Wolfe, as the Bears had been toying with making the move for quite some time. It seems the only holdup was Hester's reluctance to make the switch. Having Hester on offense, after drafting Wolfe, gives the Bears yet another weapon. It's always good to have more weapons (unless you're someone like Tank Johnson).
"I would imagine that Hester’s biggest impact on offense would be in a first-half-of-2006 Reggie Bush role: someone who doesn’t get a lot of touches, but who the defense has to account for no matter what."
Exactly. You know that whenever he comes in on offense, all of the defensive players will be aware of him and give him extra attention. Depending on the situation, that could open up things for Cedric Benson, Bernard Berrian, Greg Olsen, etc.
A lot of the Bears' biggest pass plays last year came off play action. This gives the Bears another way to run play action - they can fake a reverse to Hester and throw deep to Berrian or over the middle to Olsen.
"Miami kept trying to find a position other than KR for Hester without success. I wonder why the Bears think they’ll do any better."
[Holds hands to imitate a scale.] Larry Coker, Lovie Smith . . . Larry Coker, Lovie Smith . . . Maybe the Bears think they have a better coaching staff than Hester had at "the U." And who could blame them for thinking so? It's not like Miami didn't have talented players on offense the last few years, but you could hardly tell by watching the Hurricanes' offense.
#11
because Dante Hall actually played offense in college (although it was RB). Hester was a kick returner with no position in college.
and I am starting to think TMQ was right-coaching is all the same or does not matter that much. If Coker and his gang could not coach Hester into a position..then no one can.
#14:
All due respect, Bill, why the hell didn't you post that?!
This gets an extra point, but not the Urlacher $100,000 fine?
Re 13:
You are most likely too young to remember the first true burner to become a wide receiver, Bob Hayes of the Cowboys.
#8: A common misconception, Furrey was actually a receiver originally, the Rams just converted him to FS for one year, because their secondary sucked (still does) and they were coming down with quality WRs. The Lions then played him back in his natural position and, hey, it turns out he was good at it after all. Go figure.
RE 1, 2, 12, 14 : I'm still enjoying the ...joe phenomenon myself. However, there are definitely some who are better at it than others. The good ones come off sounding funny and like an overly upbeat telegram (Steelers win it all STOP Roethlisberger already voted into Hall of Fame STOP). The bad ones come off reading like dialogue they used to give Native Americans in old movies.
I dunno, Bill, I thought "the Joe thing" got lame a long time ago. It passed the point of sucking sometime last week.
13/21: Randy Moss was a true burner, too. I don't think he is anymore. Willie Gault wasn't "great," but he certainly was a burner and was a productive player who demanded a lot of attention from defenses.
But I don't think anyone expects Hester to become a great receiver. That isn't the point of moving him to offense. No one expects him to be a starting receiver. But if he can contribute a big play here and there and open things up for others in his limited time on the field, having him on offense will be well worth it.
In addition, it's not just Hester's speed that makes him potentially valuable on offense; it's also his elusiveness. He repeatedly has shown the ability to juke would-be tacklers on returns in addition to being able to simply outrun them. There are lots of speedy players who have straight-line speed but can't change directions or juke defenders without losing their footing. Hester is not one of them.
Here's an idea for a trick play the Bears could use from time to time with Hester: The hook and lateral. Assuming Rex can complete the pass (I know, I know), imagine the defense flat footed as Hester takes the lateral and is off to the races. The Bears did sign Drisan James (the Boise State wide receiver who caught the pass and then lateraled the ball to a teammate on the incredible play in the Fiesta Bowl) as an undrafted free agent, and he reportedly looked good in mini-camp. If he makes the roster, they'll have someone who has shown he can execute that play to perfection.
As bearjoe might say, "Rex to James to Hester unstoppable. Bears light up scoreboard on way to Phoenix in 2008. Drink Kool-Aid, get tix and place bets now."
Speaking of bearjoe (or raiderjoe, etc.), am I the only one who is reminded of Peter Sellers' character (Inspector Sidney Wang) in Murder by Death when reading his posts?
Another possible comparison for Hester might be when the Cowboys played Deion at WR for a year or two. Both were gifted athletes and dangerous open-field runners (although Hester isn't in Deion's league in either category) who lack experience at WR. Deion did OK production-wise, but was someone that the D always needed to account for on reverses, screens, etc.
The problem with the "Hester is shifty and fast" argument is that we've only really seen what he can do as a returner. He is definitely both of those (although he fumbles a lot), but completely separate of that issue, the skill set for a KR and WR are very different. You often don't have 3 seconds to get up to speed after a catch as a WR. You never have a wedge of guys blocking for you. You're usually up against better players.
Frankly, I don't see much of anything happening.
13- Your exactly right.
He might excel in a role similar to Reggie Bush in NO, but I doubt the Bears run that stuff very often. I just see him as value in that role becuase of the threat of the reverse. Even if they don't use him on that, somebody really has to watch contain and it helps spread out that D horizontally.
I'd agree, consider him more of a Deion/Champ Bailey experiment on offense.
Marko: Do you really have that much confidence in the bears' offensive coaching staff? Ron Turner in particular seems to be well out of his depth to me.
Am I correct in recalling that Ron Turner was the Bears offensive coordinator during Glenn Milburn's brief and unsuccessful stay as a 'weapon' in the Bears offense?
It's a great idea until DH blows his ACL / MCL for a 2-yard bubble screen gain (a la Gale Sayers), only to be replaced on ST by Rashied Davis, the latest version of a current arena-league star, Ahmad Merritt.
While Turner isn't the greatest offensive coordinator (see: Super Bowl XLI), he is definitely capable, as evidenced in the offenses he ran when Erik Kramer was the quarterback in the mid-to-late 1990s. While he's a terrible, terrible head coach (at least on the collegiate level), he seems to design plays around his players' strengths.
While I'm not suprememly confident he'll use Hester the way myself and others have hoped (Reggie Bush-style), I definitely don't fear that he'll try and make Hester into a #1 or #2 receiver.
Oh, and to post 31: Rashied Davis has already produced more than Ahmad Merritt. He's far from a top slot receiver, but he has decent hands and seems to get open in space fairly well. In a very pro-set offense, like Turner's, where 3- and 4-receiver sets aren't used very often, Davis is an adequate slot receiver.
For those who like numbers:
Career Numbers:
R. Davis (2006 only)
22-308-2
A. Merritt (2001-2003)
19-176-0
In the future, please don't insult Rashied Davis like that.
Hester powerless against ROBO-PUNTER. Will fumble each return attempt at 1. Bears first to worst. Also, want CMG thread.
It's more about 1) the risk of losing a highly talented and dangerous DH before he peaks (just like Gale Sayers) and 2) the irony of Rashied Davis coming from the arena-league to be a star in the NFL, relative to Ahmad Merritt who started in the NFL and is now a star in the arena league.
This site has such a Chicago bias. Devin Hester moves to reciever - big news. Mathias Kiwanuka moves from DE to linebacker? Crickets.
Raiderjoe template hilarious. Makes posts easy. Exercise economy of words. Raiderjoe greatest FO poster ever. Raiderjoe going to Arizona in '08. Buy tickets now.
Didn't he suck in the secondary? Granted, he was a rookie, but he wasn't even their dimeback was he?
34: Sorry, JB, totally missed the irony of the Ahmad Merritt reference and completely glazed over the injury factor, which is definitely important.
However, I wouldn't keep Hester off the field just due to fear of injury. There has to be a happy medium; don't overuse Hester, as he is raw and probably not a great route runner, but at the same time, make the defense have to account for him, creating openings for other players.
Also, post 36 is possibly the funniest thing I've read in a long time (it just beats out actual raiderjoe's "passing Chiefs like thief in night"). Almost made me laugh loudly at work (oops).
35- Do you think Kiwi to LB is going to be a long term move? The guy is too good to be left off the field, but im not sure LB is a great fit for him. After strahan retires, I'd guess the Giants will move him back to DE.
"Marko: Do you really have that much confidence in the bears’ offensive coaching staff? Ron Turner in particular seems to be well out of his depth to me."
Karl, I think Eddo in post #32 summed it up pretty well. Also, I don't think you are a Bears fan. If you were, you would realize that compared to the other offensive coordinators the Bears have had in the past decade (Gary Crowton, John Shoop and Terry Shea), Ron Turner looks like a combination of Bill Walsh and Don Coryell.
I think Turner will design a limited package of plays for Hester that play to his strengths, which (as Eddo pointed out in post #38) probably do not include route running. I assume he'll line up in the backfield on occasion. Maybe they can design a short pass to him coming out of the backfield like the pass the Saints threw to Reggie Bush to burn the Bears for that 88 yard touchdown in the NFC Champsionship Game.
I apologize to those who don't like ___joe. Maybe it's just the book crunch and some sort of delirium where anything that isn't Excel is funny.
#36
OMG YES
I have nothing to add :(
"However, I wouldn’t keep Hester off the field just due to fear of injury"
Eddo - I agree completely - I just will have my heart in my throat every time he runs across the middle. ST just wouldn't be the same without him (as it is, every time someone kicks to him it reminds me of the homerun race in the summer of 1998 - everytime Sosa / McGuire steps to the plate, you think they're going to take it to the house - except you're disappointed with only a double).
As an aside, I think the primary reason the Bears drafted Wolfe (aside from not having a RB3), was to compliment DH in the return game. Thus you can't just skib kick it to Rashied Davis (of whom I am fond) like many did last year.
43: Agreed. My dad is still upset that they "didn't find a way to get Hester the ball" once the Colts started squibbing kicks. Now, in a rainy game, like the Super Bowl, laterals and trick plays might not be a great idea, but he has a point.
Let's say Hester's leading the league in KR average and has taken one or two to the house in the first six weeks. Do teams start squibbing every single kickoff against the Bears? It would be nice to have a guy like Wolfe who can play up 10-20 yards and field those and at least give a competent return, rather than a TE like Gabe Reid who is forced to run 5 yards and fall on the ball.
#14 Bill Barnwell is top FO writer. All others bow before his greatness.
I get tired of myself sometimes, but hey, that's what beer is for. Bill Barnwell will someday win pulitzer prize for football writing and all others will be disgraced by his perceptive, incisive, erudite... ah, where was I going with this?
Bill Barnwell rocks!
Oh, and moving Hester to O sounds good to me. He's already one of their most potent scoring threats. He'll not likely ever be an elite WR, but swinging out of the backfield.... if he gives them an average of 3 more points a game (8 offensive TDs all season plus the same level of ST scoring), that's a pretty big deal. Plus the threat of him might open up more lanes for the more traditional O guys.
Oh and Bill (#41), Excel funny. He-he.
I don't know if this just me, but I've noticed that the __joe thing is funnier when it's the first post in a thread. I'm not sure why exactly. I think it's just funnier when the __joe thing greets you every time you read an XP.
Not sure if that made sense.
This makes sense. If Hester can produce something like his punt return skills at WR/HB hybrid position it'll make the Bears offense infinitely better. Think I overstate? I disagree. Which is more likely?
a) Rex Grossman picking a defense apart with his arm
b) Rex Grossman picking his own defenses efforts apart with countless INTs.
If the Bears can find a way to figure out which day Good Rex turns up and which days Bad Rex is playing they'll be unstoppable - play a normal offense on Good Rex days, on bad Rex days take all the plays out of the play book that aren't runs, screens, or bombs to Berrian.
It's nice to see I have fans, but remember I am the only one true Raiderjoe.
D Hester 40 time very good. Has speed to blow by defenders. If Dante Hall can play on offense, no reason Hester can't. Hester better. Only blind man couldn't see that. Dante Hall typical Chiefs crap receiver. They finally make good move to dump Hall on other team (STL Rams). Herman Edwards and Carl Peterson capable of making good transaction once in while just like blind squirrel find nut once in while.
As a Bears fan, all I can say is that the last time Hester got any significant practice time outside of special teams was after the St. Louis game and the next week he fumbled/muffed three kicks. There is a reason the guy got bounced from position to position in college (he was even tried as a fullback). He is a great athlete, fantastic kick returner, but he may like the non-physical skills do anything other than return kicks. But to borrow a phrase from Dennis Miller, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Re 27:
You don't have any time to gather speed on punt returns either, but he is more than capable at that.
I think you are right that he is better with blockers in front of him, letting him choose which path to take. However, he should be decent at screens, passes to the flats, and maybe even pitches. A couple fake hand offs to Benson up the middle, then toss to Hester would be a good play. Then of course do the opposite.
Re Turner as OC:
My subjective opinion as a Bears fan is that is good enough. He offense is very basic, and relies on out-executing the other teams defense. He is a very good teacher though (or his staff are) because the Bear's receivers run excellent routes, and everyone seems to know where to be on every play. He also know's his teams strengths and uses them (ie don't pass with Orton, don't try short routes over the middle where Rex can't see, run up the middle alot since our guards can't pull very well).
My previous suggestion still stands - line up Hester 20 yards deep, get the long snapper in there, and chuck it back to him.
Sure, some series they'll end up 5, 10 yards back from where they started, but... isn't that what happened last year anyway?
The Bears have made Wolfe the first pick to be signed, there goes what I wrote at the start of this thread.
He's be awsome in the Reggie Bush role, or like a freaking wing back in a wing T. Line him up in Ace and run end arounds, reverses, and fakes with him. Get that guy in open space, and preferibly with blockers in front of him. He will make people miss, and he will be fun to watch.
52
Atleast Rex wont be able to throw a pick.
Wait a minute. This makes all the sense in the world.
Hester was drafted as, and is listed as a DB. Who better to put on an offense with Rex than a DB. He'll feel extremely comfortable, doing what he always does.
(with apologies to Raiderjoe and Peter Sellers)
Articles unnecessary. Last month, left out 135 articles, made 12 more salient points.
Sophandros
You have got it down exactly. All Hester has to do is run down the field next to a Bears WR while waering his defensive back number and Grossman will pick him out every time. If only there was a way to get him into an opposition jersey.
The Bears have also signed Kevin Payne the fifth round safety from Louisiana-Monroe. I really liked that pick by the way, he seems like a really good athlete who may be a little raw on defense, but has the size and athletic ability to contribute quickly on special teams replacing the snaps of Johnson and Worrell.
Payne good. Very physical. What will happen when WRs and TEs go over middle vs. Bears? Payne.
60: I see the new version of [your team here]joe includes new pun-making functionality. I'll have to upgrade mine soon!
I don't know if anyone is still reading this thread, but I had a thought and I haven't anywhere else to post it.
If the Bears want to use Hester as a receiver, why not use him in a similar manner to how (I heard) Indy use Marvin Harrison. They split him out wide with hi route and then don't change it. They will audible route changes to just about everybody else, but his route stays the same and if Manning wants to hit him then he does, if not then he is the decoy. It seems that Hester may struggle to pick up assignments, so just teach him half a dozen routes and leave it up to (gulp) Grossman to decide (double gulp) whether to use him or not.
RE: 62
I agree that Hester's role will be one of decoy first, option second, esp if he is able to get a few good games in. With him and Berrian (sp?) stretching the field on a regular basis, it takes a safety back further than a defense might like. If Grossman can connect with him early in the season, it will only help Benson and the other options underneath.
#62: "It seems that Hester may struggle to pick up assignments, so just teach him half a dozen routes and leave it up to (gulp) Grossman to decide (double gulp) whether to use him or not."
It could be brilliant, but I sense a problem lurking just beneath the surface (and I think you do, too): seeing as Grossman only likes throwing deep passes, because that's the only thing he's good at, and Hester would only really be useful on deep routes, where he could use his speed and not have to do anything complicated, Grossman would probably just lock onto Hester, making the offense completely predictable. I don't imagine checking down is one of Rex Grossman's strong suits.
People would catch on, and it'd be like a less talented, less versatile version of Delhomme to Smith in 2005, and we all know how well that went when someone finally thought, "Hey, I wonder what would happen if we triple or quadruple team Steve Smith on every single play?" Not a pretty sight.
Then again, it's not really clear that this would be any worse than the current Bears offense, so why not?
Re 64:
Seattle could only do that because of attrition to Carolina. They were on their 5th running back, and I know how much FO hates Foster, but he is better than Nick Goings or whoever they had line up as tail back. And they did have any other decent receivers that entire year.
64: Not to nitpick, because I see your overall point and Grossman forcing throws always scares me, too, but the reason Delhomme looked to Smith and only Smith was because he was flat-out awesome that year. While I hope Hester can have an impact, there's no way he comes close to matching Steve Smith from a receiving point of view.
#66: I agree, and I didn't mean to fault Delhomme, since there wasn't any better option for him to throw to, and I definitely don't think Hester will be anywhere near Smith as a receiver. I was just trying to show that even with amazing talent, a two person offense won't really work that well. And with less talented players, it would be an even worse situation for Chicago. Then again, it's hard to imagine their offense getting any worse next year, so it might be worth a shot.
Early reports out of the Bears mini-camp are of Hester working on crossing routes and end-arounds. He ran away from the defense with one short pass, taking it to the house. All this needs to be taken with a gram of salt of course as there was no hitting involved.
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