Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

24 Jun 2007

Kitna Says Lions Will Win Ten Games

Well sure, if you include preseason games, that seems reasonable. And someone has to win all those intra-squad scrimmages and they'll probably be Lions too.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 24 Jun 2007

1
by Brian (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 1:18pm

The Lions do have a chance to win 10 games...about a 1% chance.

I'm estimating 5 wins, and realistically at most 7. The Lions are interesting in that they have consistently won fewer games over the past 5 seasons than you'd expect given their internal stats. They are the anti-Patriots.

http://bbnflstats.blogspot.com/2007/06/nfc-north-2007-predictions.html

2
by Marko (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 1:43pm

Did Kitna undergo drug testing after making those comments? Or is he starting a new career as a comedian? Ha ha ha! You're killing me, Kitna!

3
by PaulH (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 2:01pm

Serious question...

Am I the only one that, upon reading this, was quickly reminded of Matt Hasselbeck's "We're going to take the ball and score a touchdown!" comment in Green Bay in the wild card playoffs about three years ago.

Of course, that ended in a Seahawk interception returned for a touchdown, so you can imagine how I'm expecting this comment to play out.

4
by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 2:07pm

I had no idea the NFL had instituted a 32-game schedule starting this season. Is the NFLPA aware of this?

5
by ZS (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 4:53pm

Hold on now. In the article, it says more than ten games. Which is still entirely reasonable, I mean, look at their schedule:

Week 1: at Oakland. Considering Andrew Walter/Aaron Brooks will still be quarterbacking, that's one win right there. 1-0.

Week 2: Minnesota. Adrian Peterson is their star? He ran 41 yards for Chicago last season. Also, Tavaris Jackson? Really? 2-0.

Week 3: at Philly. I'm a Giants fan, so I must assume Donovan McNabb is injured by now. I'll be fair, though, and call it a loss. 2-1.

Week 4: Chicago. They lost their leading rusher, a top linebacker, and Rex Grossman is at quarterback. 3-1

Week 5: at Washington. Jon Kitna pwns Jason Campbell. 4-1

Week 7: Tampa Bay. They're well rested! 5-1

Week 8: at Chicago. Alright, alright, split series. 5-2

Week 9: Denver. First off, Denver will have to deal with the Lions' dreaded Ford-Field advantage. Also, Jay Cutler will have an off week or something like that. 6-2

Week 10: at Arizona. The Cardinals will have to deal with their own dreaded home-field disadvantage. 7-2

Week 11: NY Giants. Not only am I predicting a Lions loss, I am predicting Eli Manning of the soon to be 10-0 Giants will throw for 300 yards, 3 TDs, and be paraded around the field on the backs of his teammates. "IN ELI WE TRUST" runs the NY Post! Hooray! Super Bowl! 7-3

Week 12: Green Bay. Brett Favre will throw five interceptions, all will be returned for touchdowns. 8-3

Week 13: at Minnesota. By this point Brooks Bollinger will be behind center, and Chester Taylor will be back behind him. Good times. 9-3

Week 14: Dallas. Send your best "Terrell Owens and the Lions" joke to ZSGhost@gmail.com! The best will be laughed at. 10-3

Week 15: at San Diego. They lose - who says I'm not being realistic? 10-4

Week 16: Kansas City. With Larry Johnson reduced to running on his knees, Kitna is hailed as a psychic by the press for his bold prediction in June. 11-4

Week 17: at Green Bay. They're resting for the playoffs. 11-5

SEE?! TOTALLY POSSIBLE!

6
by Kevin Eleven (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 5:01pm

Stranger things have happened- the 1998 Rams, 2001 Patriots, and...uh...

7
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 5:12pm

I completely disagree. If any team is capable of not winning an intrasquad scrimmage, it's Detroit.

Honestly, it could happen. I guess.

8
by James C (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 5:15pm

The Bears have gone from 5-11 to double digit wins in 2001 and 2004.

Maybe the reason Kitna is optimistic is that the offense looks great in practice. But it would as it is playing against the Detroit defense. The secondary is abysmal and their starting DEs have about 30 career sacks in five years between them (and neither of them are cheap in cap terms). Oh and their best player recently sexually assaulted a stripper. How can they fail?

9
by Alex (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 5:32pm

#5: "Week 2: Minnesota. Adrian Peterson is their star? He ran 41 yards for Chicago last season. Also, Tavaris Jackson? Really? 2-0."

Wrong Adrian Peterson. Minnesota's got the new one, the old one played for Chicago last year.

10
by Craigo (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 5:44pm

Kitna has upped the ante. He now says 11-5 is the worst the Lions will do this year.

Aparently the homeless NFL Europa teams are going to be integrated into the NFC North, because I don't see any other way that can be true.

11
by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 6:06pm

Kitna's been watching a lot of EPL, and he probably thinks that the Lions got bumped down a division by now. Arena Football plays an 18-game schedule...

12
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 6:10pm

The absolute worst part is, that if the Lions do somehow pull this off, we'll all be treated to the nauseating spectacle of Millen strutting around like he's a genius, crowing about how he turned the Lions around.

Quite frankly, I'm not and never will be mentally prepared for that.

13
by Vitor (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 6:28pm

@ 5: Oakland has cut Brooks, genius.

14
by Andrew (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 6:56pm

Las year, Roy Williams told us how it was "Stupid" how close the Lions were to "scoring 40 points" in a game they scored 13. Applying this same approximate 1:3 ratio of reality to hype, a Kitnian boast of "more than 10 wins" translates to 3 or 4 wins this season.

15
by Marko (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 7:01pm

"Wrong Adrian Peterson. Minnesota’s got the new one, the old one played for Chicago last year."

I'm pretty sure ZS knows that and is just making a joke about the 2 Adrian Petersons.

16
by Theo, Netherlands (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 7:03pm

We got this saying in the Netherlands when someone says that it can't be done.
"Cannot is at the cemetery, next to dont wanna."

aka Big Fat Rams Cough

17
by Theo, Netherlands (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 7:14pm

"the same impact that Reggie Bush had in New Orleans... ... He's everything that they said he was and more."

They said Bush was a running back, who turned out to be a receiver.
Bush was the "and more" part but not the "everything that they said he was" part.

18
by Theo, Netherlands (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 7:26pm

* could go either way.

Week 1: at Oakland. 1-0
Week 2: Minnesota. 2-0*
Week 3: at Philly. 2-1
Week 4: Chicago. 2-2
Week 5: at Washington. 3-2*
BYE
Week 7: Tampa Bay. 4-2*
Week 8: at Chicago. 4-3
Week 9: Denver. 5-3
Week 10: at Arizona. 6-3*
Week 11: NY Giants. 6-4
Week 12: Green Bay. 7-4
Week 13: at Minnesota. 7-3
Week 14: Dallas. 7-4
Week 15: at San Diego. 7-5
Week 16: Kansas City. 8-5
Week 17: at Green Bay. 9-5

19
by jr (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 7:34pm

14: Dude, you just don't know. The Lions' last year offense was actually the best in the NFL by a staggering margin. Unfortunately they just wound up leaving 687 points on the field. Seriously, though, Kitna's statement is just too easy of a target to ridicule. It falls into the same category as "Shaq helps obese kids get into shape" as concepts that require absolutely no effort to skewer. Kind of like the Lions' franchise in general.

20
by Karl Cuba (not verified) :: Sun, 06/24/2007 - 10:10pm

Kitna's prediction makes perfect sense, you just have to wait for the "Lions' opponents to play with bags on heads" anouncement.

21
by EnglishBob (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 3:58am

This is going to sound barmy but given how weak the North is, if Chicago self-implode who's to say Detroit can't win the division? They have a reasonably easy schedule and Chicago defence and special teams are likely to regress (?).

22
by kibbles (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 7:05am

Re #6: Stranger things have happened- the 1998 Rams, 2001 Patriots, and…uh…

Prior to the 2004 season, a writer for the San Diego Chargers famously declared that he looked to see what the worst team on San Diego's schedule was, and it turns out that it was San Diego. The Chargers then famously rebounded from a 4-12 season to finish 12-4, and Marty Schottenheimer won his third career "Coach of the Year" award. I'd have to say that that ranks pretty high up on the list...

Re #10: Kitna has upped the ante. He now says 11-5 is the worst the Lions will do this year.

Aparently the homeless NFL Europa teams are going to be integrated into the NFC North, because I don’t see any other way that can be true.

Uh... where have you been? That happened years ago- the only reason the Lions haven't reached 11 wins yet is because they, themselves, are a defunct NFL Europa franchise, too.

Re #18: Week 12: Green Bay. 7-4
Week 13: at Minnesota. 7-3
Week 14: Dallas. 7-4
Geez, I knew that Minnesota was going to be bad this year, but apparently they're going to be so bad that just playing them will negate an existing loss, no questions asked.

23
by DWL (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 7:30am

Dutch math?

24
by dryheat (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 9:07am

In fairness to Kitna, he doesn't give a timeframe.

I have no doubt the Lions will win more than 10 games.

25
by andrew (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 9:08am

You forgot to analyze an important part of their schedule:

Aug 9: vs Cincinnati - pretty sure the entire bengals team will be unable to leave state of Ohio w/out violating probation... they'll probably negotiate to make exceptions for regular season... but not preseason. 1-0.

August 18 - @ Cleveland. This will be Golden Boy's first game starting for the Browns. 1-1.

August 25 - @ Indianapolis. They say the 3rd preseason game is the best indicator of the preseason games, right? The one the teams play their starters the most? However the Colts aren't stupid, they know they won't get a proper evaluation vs the Lions, so they'll focus on week 2 or 4 of preason instead. 2-1.

Aug 30: vs. Buffalo. Last preseason game, they like to do something for the local fans. 2-2 (its a fire millen thing).

26
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 9:26am

The Lions are an interesting team. I officially jumped off the bandwagon last year when Peter King predicted big things from them during training camp. They didn't let me down.

This year the defensive backfield looks really bad. To some extent, the 'Tampa 2' is supposed to hide this, but I'm skeptical. The offense should score lots of points again this year, but Kitna is likely to take a lot of pounding.

If Kitna can stay healthy all year, I think the Lions have a shot at a winning record. Unfortunately for Detroit fans, I don't think that either is very likely.

One final Lions related thought. If the Lions are able to get off to a good start, I wonder what happens after they blow a few games because they can't (or won't) run the ball to protect a lead. Will Marinelli pull a Buddy Ryan and go after Martz?

27
by Sophandros (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 9:59am

What's he supposed to say? It's not like he's going to tell the media, "hey guys, we're going to royally suck this year," even if that's true.

28
by Ilanin (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:38am

26 - I don't have my PFP 2005 to hand right now, but Aaron exposed "Martz's offense can't hold a fourth quarter lead" as a myth years ago. ISTR his Rams were at the top of whatever metric it was that was used to measure a team's competence at holding a lead.

29
by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:44am

In all fairness, a) the Lions have had a solid Madden offense for years now (got to love optimistic programmers), and b) Sophandros is right. I'd much rather have Kitna and Williams saying "We're going to kick some butt this season" than "Yeah, we're looking forward to the next top-5 draft pick. Two more and we'll be an 8-8 team."

Still, it's funny.

On the other hand, the Tigers managed to turn things around very quickly ...

30
by mactbone (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:48am

Well, you can just give the normal platitudes like "We're working really hard and I think we've improved a lot from last year. We need to take these lessons and apply them on the field, blah, blah, blah."

Speaking of the NFCN - ESPN had some thing where Hoge and some other guy predicted which team would have the best offense and which would have the best defense. They both agreed on Chicago for defense and they split on Minnesota and Green Bay for offense.

Seriously, one of them said Minnesota. The reasoning being that Adrian Peterson + Chester Taylor = teh yards! Being a Bears homer I predict Grossman will magically fix his problems and Benson will be the back that we want him to be. Realistically, I can see the Lions or maybe Green Bay having the best offense.

31
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:48am

Well, the good news is that after years and years of trying, the Lions will finally likely put two excellent receivers on the field. The bad news is that the rest of the tesm isn't too good, and if Shaun Roger's production doesn't match his potential, which it rarely has, and looks to be still unlikely at this point, well, I don't think Calvin Johnson can be a run-stopper.

Mike Martz quarterbacks get hit a lot, even with Orlando Pace playing tackle, and the Lions don't have Orlando Pace on their roster, so it wouldn't be surprising in the least for Kitna to miss time. The Lions winning more than 10 wouldn't be the most shocking thing the league has ever seen, and if Calvin Johnson has a Randy Moss-like rookie year, I suppose it's possible, but I don't think Vegas needs to adjust it's Lions' prop line hugely just yet.

32
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:59am

If the Vikings get any production out their defensive ends this year, which isn't tremendously unlikely, I could see their defense being better than the Bears' defense this year, which does not have tremendously long odds against regressing a little bit.

If Tavaris Jackson exceeds replacement level, heck, even meets replacement level, I'll be extrenely surprised, maybe even shocked. Opposing defensive coordinators are going to put eight and nine guys in the box against the Vikings offense, and dare Jackson and the receivers to impose a price for doing so. There's not a lot of reason to the think that Jackson and the receivers will accomplish the task.

33
by MJK (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 12:27pm

Kitna is obviously just trying to have some SWAGGER.

I don't think you can necessarily say with certainty that any team in the NFC North has no chance at 11 wins. Bad divisions can do wonders helping teams cover up a few bad weaknesses. I don't think it's likely, but at least Kitna is trying to break the ho hum we're going to lose again mentality which I imagine now permeates the Detroit locker room.

On the Martz offense and 4th quarter lead thing:
It's a lot easier to hold a 4th quarter lead when Marshall Faulk is your running back and you defense is decent (2000-2001 Rams quality) than when Kevin Jones is your running back and you have the Lions defense... In other words, the Lions won't be able to hold leads not because of a Martz offense, but because they are a bad, one-dimensional team.

34
by Phil (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 12:48pm

"The Lions winning more than 10 wouldn’t be the most shocking thing the league has ever seen..."

OK. Can we just stop this madness? Look, I'm rooting for the lions (but against Millen, at the same time) just like everone else. However, as Parcells once said (paraphrase), There is a big, big, BIG difference between going 9-7 and going 10-6 for whatever reason. For the Lions to pull off 10 (regular season) games, they would have to win the division. Does anybody really see that happen with all the reasons listed above? Not this year anyway. Even if Kitna thought they could truly win 10 games, he would have set the bar higher--say 11-12 games--to motivate the team.

35
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:01pm

Why didn't Kitna just come out and say the Lions would be undefeated? It would be just as believable.

36
by Tarrant (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:07pm

I'm in the camp of "What exactly is Kitna going to say?" If he says "No comment", it's going to be reported as him having no faith in his team. Even if he believes they'll only win four games, he can't say they'll only win four games.

And no one ever was excited by the line "I'd say we're headed for an 8-8 season."

The worst answer you might get is something like "Well, we're in a rebuilding year, but we're gonna play hard and I think fans will be surprised," or some nonsense like that.

Beyond that, pretty much every player, at the minimum, is going to say they see a winning season ahead (so, at least 9-7). So he said slightly more, but it's not like he said they were going 16-0. He gave the standard boilerplate answer everybody is going to give.

Actually it's kind of interesting between sports what owners/players promise. You rarely would see an NFL player/GM/coach say "Yeah I see a 4-12 season, but support us anyway!" But I've seen baseball owners freely say prior to the season "Yeah it's a rebuilding year, we may see 100 losses but we'll be better next year, so fans should come see the young talent!" I've seen NHL owners say similar things. I wonder if it's because there's so many more games per season?

37
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:12pm

Phil I pretty much said it was unlikely, and only asserted that it wouldn't be the most unlikely development in league history. Two of the other three teams in the division aren't much good, and the third team could easily regress a lot this year. If Shaun Rogers plays to his talent, and Calvin Johnson gives an unusually dominant rookie of the year performance, they could get there. Now, I think it is very unlikely that both of those developments will come to pass, especially since Rogers might be charged with a felony, but it's not a one in a hundred shot, either.

Maybe two in a hundred, but definitely not one.......

38
by mawbrew (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:13pm

Re: 28&33

My point really wasn't that Martz's offenses were any better or worse than average at holding leads, but that Martz's approach is seemingly inconsistent with that of the head coach. Marinelli comes off as much preferring a smash-mouth style. Just wondering how he'll react when/if the Martz approach let's them down.

Also building on #33, in addition to Faulk, the Lions don't have Bulger or Warner (in his priome). Kitna is much more prone to throw a pick than either of those guys when they played for Martz.

39
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:36pm

Don't forget the absence of Orlando Pace, either, Mawbrew. The Martz offense, with it's aversion to max protection schemes, benefits even more than other offensive styles from having a dominant offensive tackle in pass protection.

40
by DWL (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:47pm

"I wonder if it’s because there’s so many more games per season?"

Precisely...sort of...it's because there are so few games.

Most teams can expect to go 8-8 +/-1. It's all these "ifs" that get sited (injuries, coaching, player X lives up to potential, fumbles, luck, etc.) that will get the majority of teams over the hump. It is these same factors that have the potential to bring down those few teams that truly are above .500.

Therefore, the team that goes 5-11, may very well have done so b/c of the "ifs" and the truly awful teams that are "rebuilding" may have a flukey run of "ifs" and reach 7 to 9 wins.

I think this is what Parcells meant about winning 10 games.

41
by Phil (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 1:55pm

Will
Don't take that as me singling you out or anything. I can agree with just about everything you said...I just wanted to stop what I saw as a trend starting to build on this thread.

DWL
Would you put last years 9'ers in that catagory? By all accounts, nobody expected them to be any good--at all. But they ended the season with some good momentum.

42
by andrew (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 2:31pm

On Around the Horn last week they showed footage of a fan behind home plate at Denver in a Rockies/Yankees interleague baseball game.... with a "Fire Millen" sign.

43
by Alex (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 2:31pm

One year ago:
""The Lions Saints winning more than 10 wouldn’t be the most shocking thing the league has ever seen…�

OK. Can we just stop this madness? Look, I’m rooting for the lions saints (but against Millen Loomis?, Mueller?, at the same time) just like everone else. However, as Parcells once said (paraphrase), There is a big, big, BIG difference between going 9-7 and going 10-6 for whatever reason. For the Lions Saints to pull off 10 (regular season) games, they would have to win the division. Does anybody really see that happen with all the reasons listed above? Not this year anyway."

A lot can change in one year.

44
by DWL (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 2:46pm

Which category, the average team that had bad "ifs" but pulled it out late, or the bad team that got some good "ifs" late?

45
by Tom (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 3:17pm

Re 43:

Are you talking about saints team that went 8-8 only two years ago, only went 3-13 due to crazy circumstances no one could control, and upgraded their QB from Aaron Brooks to Drew Brees?

Because, although saying ten wins would have got you called crazy (maybe not after the Drew Brees signing), saying 8 or 9 wins would not have, while the Lions probably don't have a good chance at that.

46
by Phil (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 3:18pm

Alex
I see where your going. However, for starters, you're equating Brees to Kitna, Bush to Johnson, Katrina disaster to Millen disater and the subsequent emotional season for the Saints is a bit of a stretch. You're right, a lot can change in a year, but there just hasn't been enough change in Detroit to start talking about a 10 win season.

DWL
I assume that one was for me. Answer to your question, the 'bad' team that got some good "ifs".

47
by DWL (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 3:58pm

Phil,

I don't follow the 49ers close enough to comment specifically (and I'd certainly hate to hijack the Lions' thread); however, it sounds like your general take based on what I was trying to articulate is that if we looked at the 49ers roster (talent pool), we would have said that it is far below the league average and we therefore expect them to win six or fewer games (I'm comfortable calling 7 to 9 wins what an average team should win), but then something (Smith developing faster, Gore playing at his projected level, coaching meshing well with staff, or something) occurred to boost them into the average realm.

That being said, I guess the question on this string is: Are the Lions in the Average range now with regards to talent, where 7-9 wins is reasonable if things go normally, and therefore 10 wins could occur w/ a couple of unexpected "ifs" falling there way?

48
by Hooper (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 4:09pm

Re: 43

mmmmm.....outlier.....

In all seriousness, and with no supporting data, the Lions seem to have calmed down quite a bit recently. The O-line hasn't completely disregarded the QB on the field in a while, and they finally drafted a receiver that a fair number of people think was actually worth the effort. I don't see 11 wins, but they might at least be respectable. That game against San Diego might actually have some playoff bearing.

49
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 4:46pm

#48 - You mean the kind of playoff bearing where the Lions upset the Chargers and let the Chiefs slip in as the wildcard, right? Because I can't imagine any other scenario where that game would have any playoff bearing.

50
by Tom (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 5:02pm

Re 48:

I think every receiver they've drafted has been lauded as going to be great.

51
by ZS (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 6:10pm

#43: The Saints also got kinda lucky, considering how the rise of the Brees-Bush-Colson (Colston?!) offense came at the same time as Chris Simms' injury, Jake Delhomme's decline, and Atlanta continuing to ride the Mike Vick Experience.

I'm not saying that can't happen to the Lions, but you really can't compare an addition of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush to the addition of Tatum Bell and Calvin Johnson.

52
by Hooper (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 6:24pm

re: 49
Yep. I didn't mean anything in regards to the Lions making the playoffs. The only other thing I can imagine is that somehow the Lions could be a part of a weird tiebreaker based on strength of schedule.

re: 50
Very true. My fault entirely for attempting a little humor immediately after saying "in all seriousness". Thanks for pointing it out.

53
by Tri Shanku (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 7:35pm

Come on guys, Kitna's counting in binary!

Seriously, he was a math major (and I always support him just for that..)

54
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 7:43pm

There will be an NFC North team not named the Bears who wins the division and possibly ten games, but it won't be the Lions. It will be the Packers. And that will be followed by yet more Favre melodrama as he strings along the media for months before saying he'll be back for yet another season and expressing his utter dismay and bewilderment at all the media attention he's getting.

Then again, the Saints got the consensus best player in the draft last year and look what happened to them...

Nope, I still can't see it. Not unless the Lions pull the mother of all shockers and fire Millen sometime between now and September.

55
by Jason Taylor (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:44pm

"John Kitna is scrambled eggs."

56
by Jon Kitna (not verified) :: Mon, 06/25/2007 - 11:46pm

"Jason Taylor can't spell."

57
by Brian Kelly (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 8:55am

Martz said about a month or so back that he was more excited about the upcoming season than any other time in his coaching career! He then grabbed a marker and started drawing X's and O's for the media, GUSHING about how with the addition of Calvin Johnson, the Lion's would be essentially UNSTOPPABLE. Martz BEGGED Marinelli and Millen to draft Johnson, and was ecstatic beyond description when his wish was granted. If the mad scientist - the creator of the GREATEST SHOW ON TURF - is right, then the only prayer opposing teams have is that Johnson and/or Williams succumb to injury. Otherwise, imagine Millen hoisting the Lombardi trophy! (oh wow, even *my* credulity is being stretched TO THE MAX!)

58
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:36am

Brian Kelly
Why are you yelling at us??

59
by Phil (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:42am

Also
Are you suggesting that Jon Kitna will be an MVP within the next two seasons? That's what the GREATEST SHOW ON TURF did for Warner.

60
by Mike W (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:44am

Last night on ESPN radio, the host brought out Kitna's quote, and Mortensen said he agreed with him. Then he backtracked a little, saying they'd approach ten wins. Yow.

61
by RMGreen (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 12:39pm

It's possible. Every season in almost every league there's a 'magical' team that rises out of the ashes of a terrible season to become a top-level contender the next year. Why not the Lions this year? It could happen.

62
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 1:10pm

Re 61:

I can see where you are coming from, but the Lions major problems were on defense, and they did little to improve there. I guess they could become an unstoppable offense that goes Colts of 02, and wins 10 games 46-42, barely squeezing into the playoffs, but I still bet they don't win 10 games.

63
by Erasmus (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 6:42pm

As a Lions fan with no hope and who frequents Lions boards...this is what they thought before Kitna even said anything. Lions fans honestly think they are going to win 8-11 games this year.

As a Lions fan who had hope, then after the Mike Williams draft pick lost hope (though I tried to get it back) for the Millen led franchise, I honestly think this team is not going to win 10 games. The defense is too shaky. They have a great DT combo, but the DEs depend on Kalimba finally breaking out in his 6th season and White just being solid (though I think Francis is going to be good). It depends on the LBers being healthy sometime this century (Millen was a former LBer and has made some crappy LBer picks) and it depends on the Tampa 2 to totally hide really really bad corners.

The offense should be improved-does that mean more wins. I like the Mulitalio signing, I think Backus is solid at LT and Foster should be OK at RT. We actually have depth at WR and RB now (Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett plus maybe Bryson is a whole lot better then Arlen Harris and gods know who else we put out there). And we actually have 4 WRs instead of 2.

That being said, the Mike Williams pick was a terrible, terrible pick-I think worse then the Joey or Charles Rogers pick. Especially with the players picked right behind him.

64
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:15pm

#61:

I'll tell you why not in two words: Matt Millen. That kills the whole thing dead right there. Otherwise I'd buy that stock because mark my words, the Bears will fall. Not only will they fail to win the North, they might not even make the playoffs.

65
by Erasmus (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 7:31pm

Well if the Bears are not making the playoffs-someone else has to be, and I think the Vikings, Packers, and Lions are all flawed teams that need a couple of things to go right for them.

That being said, the Bears have a dominant defense-and if its not dominant this season its going to be better then the other 3 teams and it has an above average offense that should be better then 2 other of its divisional foes. Right now the Bears are the best team in that division because they have the least amount of fatal flaws.

66
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:21pm

Re 64:

Could you explain your reasoning behind why you think the Bears will fall? Please make it something more substantial then the Bear's defense is bound to regress. Unless you think it's simply the Briggs and Johnson losses.

67
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 9:37pm

The Bears' offseason has gone too badly for me to believe it won't carry over. Unless you think they *wanted* to cut Johnson all along. Olsen won't help them at TE either, he's a pure workout warrior. Hester will flop at WR since he's flopped at being anything but a return man his entire career to date. It all started with the organization's disturbing reluctance to give Lovie and extension, and it's gone on from there. Teams with offseasons this bad never win anything.

68
by Tom (not verified) :: Tue, 06/26/2007 - 10:15pm

Ok, I was just curious to see how a non-Bear's fan views the team. Personally, I think most things have been blown out of proportion, and I don't think losing Briggs is going to hurt us that much.

Losing Tank will hurt our depth, so we will have to get a little lucky with injuries, but losing Johnson and Scott isn't as big as losing Tommie Harris which is what happened to us last year.

69
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 5:16am

I'm not intentionally trying to dog the Bears (or you for tbat matter) that's honestly just the way I see it. I have no special love or loathing for the Bears actually. It's just that I've seen teams with bad offseasons collapse way too many times. Remember, there was no WAY the Eagles weren't going to win their division in Year Two of the TO Error. Until they didn't.

The Bears still LOOK like the best team in the NFC North on paper, but I'd honestly be shocked if all of this didn't affect them in a negative way. The one move that actually irked me was that whole Lovie contract situation, they really did him wrong. Briggs on the other hand can go stew in his own juices. The hell with him I say.

70
by dryheat (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 9:35am

Mike Furrey agrees...

71
by Tom (not verified) :: Wed, 06/27/2007 - 12:05pm

If McNabb had stayed healthy, or they had a better QB than McMahon (like AJ Feeley or Garcia), they still would have won their division.

72
by Erasmus (not verified) :: Thu, 06/28/2007 - 12:40pm

Oh man if Olsen does not work out I wonder if they have a TE on the roster that caught 40+ passes and had 6 TD catches or not. And Hester is going to be a 4th WR on the squad regardless if he works or not.

I like Anthony Adams, I think he was a bad fit in the San Fran 3-4 look and a great fit for a DT in the Tampa 2 scheme-but yeah beyond him and Harris depth is lacking, but really who else has good DT depth in that division.

bad offseason mojo is not going to hurt the Bears this season unless injuries eat them up (they have been pretty lucky on the OL front in regards to health)

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