Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Sep 2007

Seventh Day Adventure: Therapy Session

by Russell Levine

How has your week gone?

Mine? Not so well. By Thursday afternoon, apparently not every person I've ever known had yet tracked me down to rag on me for Michigan's Appalachian State meltdown.

I thought I was handling this well. I thought I was OK. I did a radio spot on Wednesday afternoon in which I felt I was able to rationally discuss where this upset placed in the annals of sports history.

But a humiliation of this magnitude is not easily put aside. It's like a festering sore that I feel the need to constantly pick at; despite telling myself I'd stay off the message boards this week I have done the opposite. I've been a glutton for the frustrated analysis of Michigan fans everywhere.

Mostly I've just wondered why it is I care so much about something that ultimately has so little effect on my life -- except for that small bit about determining my ultimate happiness.

Still, there are too many questions to be answered about this loss before it can be forgotten. It's in that spirit that I welcome this week's podcast guest: Michigan blogger Brian Cook, proprietor of mgoblog, inventor of the BlogPoll, and holder of not one, but two degrees from the U of M. I don't know if that means he's twice as humiliated as the rest of us, but I intend to find out.

One of the unique features of Brian's site is his weekly "upon further review" segment, where he breaks down every play of each Michigan game and assigns credit or blame for the play's ultimate success or failure. His UFR segments on the Appalachian State game are required reading for any Michigan fan that has the stomach for it.

We'll also make picks on all this weekend's big games, and yes, Oregon-Michigan still qualifies.

Again, this is the new format for SDA this year. I'm still looking for a few guests to fill out the schedule, so if you're interested in appearing on a future podcast drop me an e-mail at Russell-at-footballoutsiders-dot-com and let me know your credentials.

And remember, this article serves as the college open thread all weekend.

Here are the games we'll be discussing this week:

Miami (Fla.) (+11) at #5 Oklahoma, 12 p.m. ET, ABC

This was one of the rivalry games of the 1980s, when the Sooners and Hurricanes hooked up in three memorable contests, all of which had national title implications.

Oklahoma looked utterly dominant last week, as new starting quarterback Sam Bradford lit up North Texas, completing 21 of 33 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami also had an impressive debut last week, as new head coach Randy Shannon -- subject of an awesome profile by Gary Smith in this week's Sports Illustrated -- was a winner in his debut against Marshall.

#16 Nebraska (-9) at Wake Forest, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

All the Nebraska talk coming into the season was whether Sam Keller was the right quarterback to operate Bill Callahan's West Coast offense. He wasn't needed much against Nevada in the opener, as I-back Marlon Lucky ran wild.

Wake Forest, meanwhile, blew a 14-point lead to Boston College and lost quarterback Riley Skinner to a separated shoulder. Skinner's poise, as much as anything, was the key to Wake's stunning ACC title last season. Brett Hodges will be his replacement if he can't go, as expected.

Oregon (+7.5) at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Oregon is another spread option offense and Dennis Dixon ran for 140 yards against Houston last week. How much can Michigan repair in one week on defense?

Jonathan Stewart is a powerful back who could also give Michigan trouble, particularly if the Ducks are capable of spreading Michigan out -- or if the Wolverines play with their collective head up their rear, as they did against Appalachian State.

This game is all about the neck up for Michigan. How do the Wolverines respond to unprecedented disappointment? Consider a player like Jake Long, who came back to win a national championship.

Michigan should be able to run on Oregon, but whether it can stop the Ducks is another question.

#22 Boise State (-3) at Washington, 3:30 p.m. ET, FSN (Regional)

Washington certainly looked impressive in taking apart Syracuse on the road last week and it looks as if Tyrone Willingham might have the program moving in the right direction in his third year.

He certainly appears to have a quarterback, Jake Locker, who ran and passed the Huskies past the Orange.

Boise State hasn't lost a game since 2005 and still has the world's best crocheting tailback in Ian Johnson, but the Broncos haven't beaten a BCS conference team on the road in their last 12 tries.

Notre Dame (+18) at #14 Penn State, 6 p.m. ET, ABC

Can Notre Dame possibly be as bad as it looked last week?

Jimmy Clausen, a.k.a. "Jimmuh the Emu," gets the start for Charlie Weis at Happy Valley. Will the offense look any better under his direction? Penn State's defense is nearly as nasty as Georgia Tech's, and Notre Dame's offensive line is horrendous.

Penn State might be the class of the Big Ten, particularly if Anthony Morelli really has figured things out in this, his senior season.

#19 TCU (+9) at #7 Texas, 7 p.m. ET, FSN

Along with Notre Dame, Texas is the other team that should send Michigan a Christmas card for keeping the focus of it last week. The 'Horns looked very pedestrian in a 21-13 win over Arkansas State, and the Big 12 announced during the week that a late on-side kick attempt should have been awarded to the Indians.

There are plenty of numbers to back the Horned Frogs here. TCU has won five straight against the Big 12, and nine of its last 10 against BCS conference teams, including a win at Oklahoma in 2005.

South Florida (+7) at #17 Auburn, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Auburn rallied to beat Kansas State at home last week (maybe the Wildcats should have brought their power towels with them). The Tigers look to have a mean defense, but very little offense, which begs the question: Can Auburn contend in the SEC with Brandon Cox at quarterback? And is he the new Reggie Ball? (OK, that's two questions.)

South Florida is a program on the rise. Often an afterthought in Big East discussions, the Bulls have beaten Louisville and West Virginia and put a huge scare into Rutgers the last two years. The odds-makers are either impressed with Jim Leavitt's program or they just hate Auburn's offense, because this line appears a touch low.

#9 Virginia Tech (+11.5) at #2 LSU, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Virginia Tech can be excused for a sluggish effort in an emotional atmosphere against East Carolina last week. But emotion won't help the Hokies against LSU's defense, particularly if Scott Glennon turns in a skittish performance.

LSU wasn't nearly as sharp as its 45-0 win over Mississippi State would suggest. The Tigers took advantage of turnovers to play on a short field the entire game. If Glennon coughs up the ball, this could be another rout.

Virginia Tech's defense is nearly is good as LSU's, but the Hokies may need to block a punt in order to have a chance on the road.

The SDA Podcast


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The Picks
(* - "Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week")
Visitor Spread Home Brian Says Russell Says
Miami +11 Oklahoma Miami Oklahoma*
Nebraska -9 Wake Forest Nebraska* Nebraska
Oregon +7.5 Michigan Oregon Michigan
Boise State -3 Washington Washington Washington
Notre Dame +18 Penn State Notre Dame Penn State
TCU +9 Texas Texas TCU
South Florida +7 Auburn South Florida South Florida
Virginia Tech +11.5 LSU LSU LSU
Season-long Results
("Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week" record in parentheses)
  Last Week Season Total
Guest: Vinny 3-5-0 (0-1-0) 3-5-0 (0-1-0)
Guests Composite     3-5-0 (0-1-0)
Russell 3-5-0 (1-0-0) 3-5-0 (1-0-0)

Posted by: Russell Levine on 07 Sep 2007

1
by Rocco (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 8:36am

I haven't listened to the podcast, but Brian has to be taking ND for the sole purposes of throwing the whammy on the Irish, right?

2
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:19am

My Top 25, obviously done before Thursday night:

1. Southern Cal
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. West Virginia
6. Penn State
7. Texas
8. Louisville
9. Cal
10. Georgia Tech
11. Wisconsin
12. Georgia
13. Clemson
14. Nebraska
15. Ohio State
16. Miami
17. UCLA
18. Virginia Tech
19. Arkansas
20. Oregon State
21. Auburn
22. Oregon
23. Tennessee
24. Florida State
25. South Carolina

Pick of the week: Duke +17 over Virginia. I'm 1-0 so far.

I will not watch LSU vs Virginia Tech, as I'm tired or ABC / ESPN exploiting April's tragic shootings on Va Tech's campus. Shutup about it already, I want to watch football. And if you're a football player and someone shoots me, don't worry about having to win games on my behalf.

3
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:28am

Hey guys, just got back from my honeymoon, I just wanted to check to see if I missed anything big last weekend...

Oh my. Well. Excuse me, I need to go laugh for a few hours. And I thought life couldn't get any better.

4
by Weekly Journalist (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:22am

#2- No love for teh Jersey?

5
by Tarrant (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:27am

The AP announced this morning that Div. I-AA team will now be eligible for ranking in the top 25. Thanks to Michigan, new ground is being broken all over the college football world!

6
by James, London (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:45am

Trogdor, congratulations. Go anywhere nice?

7
by Sonya M (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 11:43am

#1 -- most of the discussion about the ND-PSU pick had to do with the large spread.

8
by morganja (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 12:19pm

I didn't see much discussion about the biggest game of the week: Appalachian State vs. Lenoir Rhyne. I'm expecting an emotional drain after last week's big victory. It's our first home game this year and I'll have to walk over early to 'The Rock' to get a good seat. The rumor is that Lenoir Rhyne has promised to make us 'their Michigan', which is apparently a reference to something that sometimes happens in prison. I don't quite get it. Has anyone ever heard that phrase before? To make someone your Michigan?

Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32

9
by Fourth (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 1:29pm

Hah, the 6 team playoff/home field 1st/2nd round is my playoff idea too! It really is the only fair thing to the Big 10...I wouldn't have the Rose Bowl be the permanent site of the championship though, why give the Pac 10 home field every year?

Anyway, I'm surprised both of you are going with LSU -11.5. To me, this (like every VaTech game) has 21-16 written all over it. VT is good for 1 D/ST touchdown, and if you watched the LSU/MSU game last week you saw how sluggish LSU's offense was with Flynn at qb. I don't think VT will win, mainly since they won't be able to move the ball, but their defense will keep it close.

10
by asg (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 2:46pm

What, no picks for Lenoir-Rhyne @ Appalachian State?!

11
by morganja (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 4:28pm

I'm going to go out on a limb and just pick some random numbers....

Appalachian State 34
Lenoir-Rhyne 32

I have no idea why those numbers came to me.

Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32

12
by Russell Levine :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 5:09pm

Morgan -- I thought we were buddies. I want my DVD back if you're gonna keep this up!

13
by morganja (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 5:25pm

I'm only going to keep going until a) Michigan beats us or b) Lenoir-Rhyne upsets us this weekend.

We really appreciate the game. We haven't got it yet, it's a hard climb up the mountain for the mail-mule, but are eagerly looking forward to watching it, hopefully before the game tomorrow. I have never seen Boone this excited. Just a huge smile on everyone's face and the first topic of conversation out of everyone's mouth. It's the first time we've ever been able to talk crap to a major football power, let alone the greatest football power in history. Plus, we're all rooting for Michigan to go undefeated the rest of the way for obvious reasons. We don't normally root for Canadian teams down here, but we're all eagerly hoping for Michigan domination the rest of way.

14
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:05pm

4- Last week I called Rutgers the most overrated team in the country and picked them to go 8 - 4. I think every team I have listed would beat them on a neutral field, as well as a few teams I don't have listed (Missouri, Boston College, TCU, and others).

If you're a Rutgets fan, please don't be offended- it's just a prediction and I could be wrong.

15
by sean (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:06pm

Is there a website like football outsiders devoted to college football rankings? Or better yet, are you guys thinking about working up your formulas for college football as well.

16
by Mike :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 9:53pm

Congratulations to Trogdor from all of us here at Football Outsiders.

I fully understand the historic significance of the Appalachian State win, but honestly, as a way of judging the relative merits of two teams, I think a 30-point loss to Georgia Tech is worse than a two-point loss to Appalachian State.

17
by NewsToTom (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:10pm

Fall weddings should be banned. Hopefully I can manage to catch at least some of Miami-Oklahoma and LSU-VT, but I'm not optimistic.

Trogdor, congrats. Let me know how tOSU looks, since I missed last week's game, will ya? This way you can tell your wife (I'm assuming) it's an obligation, and you have to watch the game.

18
by Russell Levine :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 10:45pm

I guess I will add my congrats to Trogdor as well. Where does a Toledo guy honeymoon, anyway? Akron?

I kid, I kid. I'm sure you were worried about me, so just trying to show that I'm still alive.

19
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/07/2007 - 11:10pm

Fall weddings should be banned.

God Bless you, sir.

I think a 30-point loss to Georgia Tech is worse than a two-point loss to Appalachian State.

I strongly disagree. It's about the result. "Georgia Tech beats Notre Dame" is no big deal. "Appalachian State beats Michigan" is.

Besides, I think you're underrating Georgia Tech quite a bit there. I think Miami and FSU will be "back", but I still see GT as a legitimate threat for the ACC title and a possible top ten team.

20
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 12:20am

#2: AMEN BRUTHA!!! Although I have to ask why you just can't watch with the sound off. That's what I plan on doing.

21
by indywaldo (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 1:06am

I don't care who they are playing. If Boise State is on TV - I'm going to watch it. Just in case they decide to open up their playbook again. I know I will never see that again, but still.

ND/PSU. Yuck. I don't even know what to say.

VT's defense is actually likely better than LSU's. But the mismatch of LSU D / VT O > VTD / LSU O. If Scott Glennon turns in any performance, VT has no chance. The Scott Glennon I know is a two-bit punk surfs the internet all day at work while "delegating" everything but taking credit. Sean Glennon (who I don't think is related to Scott), is servicable. He won't win for you, but he can do enough to keep it close. LSU wins, but I take the points.

22
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 1:14am

I'm openly rooting against Virginia Tech, not only this week but in every game. The absolute last thing I ant to see is them beating LSU and their players/the media crediting the win to inspiration from the dead students or something. Enough is enough. Plus it's the Vick Brothers' old school. I was already vehemently against them, and this cements it even more.

Of all the schools for a gunman to go on an insane killing spree at...

I guarantee though, if they lose two games they'll suddenly become irrelevant, sugary sweet story or no. Here's to the first loss coming Saturday night!

23
by Devin McCullen (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 1:21am

I'll add congrats to Trogdor.

I have to admit, after tonight's Rutgers game, I'm not so sure that kevin's that far off. The offense looks fine, but if they can't do something about their run defense, and stop all the stupid penalties, they could have some serious issues. Seriously, if Navy had just decided to never throw the ball, they would have had a good shot - there were two picks in the end zone and three overall.

24
by Jon (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 3:06am

The triple option is really unlike any other offense. There's not much you can draw from this game (and that goes for Rutgers's impressive offensive performance too) on either side. I think things would have been more lopsided if Rutgers wasn't missing its starting NT and MLB.And Schiano, for the love of God, Rice does not need that many carries.

25
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 3:32am

Couldn't agree more with 24.

You take this tape and put it on the shelf until you play Navy again. Navy has made a lot of pretty good defenses look bad.

Ridiculous for Rice to be picking up carries late in this game. Yes, they play Norfolk State next week, but he was already nicked up tonight and they gave him 37 carries. A Heisman campaign isn't worth it if he gets hurt and wrecks your season.

Teel seems to have made great strides from the first half of last season and the passing offense looks legit. With Louisville and WVA already having some questionable defensive efforts, I like Rutgers's chances to score points in those games.

26
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 9:07am

I could see LSU covering the spread- VT would be down 6 late, and Glennon throws a terrible INT into triple coverage that's run back for a TD. Anyone who's seen Glennon impersonate a QB realizes that's incredibly likely.

27
by South Carolina Beauty Queen (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 11:54am

#22
Actually its the battle of the tragedies as commentators like to act like Baton Rouge was devastated by Hurricane Katrina. Although unlike the shooting spree, Katrina barely hit LSU so I am not even sure why Katrina is brought up when LSU is playing.

28
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 1:29pm

Upset watch: Marshall 13, #3 West Virginia 6, halftime. West Virginia hasn't moved the ball at all except for their one TD drive.

Way too early: Akron 2, Ohio State 0, 1st quarter. Akron's punter has pinned tOSU inside the 10 twice, the first leading to a safety (initially ruled down on the 1, but reversed on replay).

29
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 1:34pm

That was a brutal decision by the Marshall coach to settle for the field goal just before halftime. They had a timeout left and were at the WV 10. What are you afraid of?

30
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 1:47pm

Favorite names of the day:

Darius Passmore, Marshall WR.
Reggie Corner, Akron DB.

31
by morganja (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 2:08pm

I just came back from working out next to the stadium. My favorite Tee-shirt so far, "Where's Ann Arbor?"

Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32

32
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 2:10pm

Miami's offense is DOA. If Kirby Freeman is the best they can do, ouch. OU 21. UM 3.

33
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 2:30pm

Ohio State 3, Akron 2, halftime. Ohio State's turned the ball over 3 times, while Akron's punted on all 8 of its possessions.

34
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 2:33pm

Re: 31

Wow, that level of creativity isn't even up to Ohio State's usual, ahem, high standards.

35
by joe football (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 2:44pm

cognet.catch22.org for IRC football chat, #fo

36
by morganja (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 2:51pm

Re: 34

Well, We're a bunch of very nice, polite mountain kids here so we have different creative expression than one might expect from Ohio State. Obviously we all know Ann Arbor is in Canada, somewhere, it's not like Miss South Carolina is coming to Appalachian State. Oh, wait, she is.

Checkout signature for reference.

Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32

37
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 3:09pm

Akron today: 10 possessions, 2 first downs, 10 punts. Still only 6-2 midway through the 3rd quarter though.

38
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 3:30pm

Akron hasn't gained a first down in its last 11 possessions. 13-2 Ohio State, end of the 3rd quarter.

39
by oljb (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 3:35pm

So much for Marshall's attempt at a defense. A small lead at halftime over WVU is nothing to get optimistic about.

40
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:16pm

It appears that Nebraska is going to hang on and beat Wake, but I really fail to see what the fans and administrators like about Callahan. This doesn't look like a well-coached team to me at all.

41
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:16pm

Russell- your Edelstein lock on the OU game looks safe. Just a guess.

42
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:22pm

#40-

I think the call to go for it on 4th down rather than punt is Exhibit A there.

43
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:25pm

Duke covers- I'm 2 - 0.

My date for the evening kicked out, so it looks like I will be watching LSU vs Virginia Tech after all. The only alternatives are Auburn vs UCF and Colorado vs ASU. :(

44
by South Carolina Beauty Queen (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:34pm

Its Auburn-South Florida.

Looks like Saban will win his 1st SEC game against Vandy unless something crazy happens in 4 minutes.

45
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:35pm

I think Nebraska, having made the decision to hire Callahan and ditch the option, is smart to be patient. But was there any need to give him an extension this week?

46
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:46pm

Remember...Oregon is a very good team. This game is not just about Michigan.

47
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 4:54pm

Thanks to all for the well wishes and all that. For those who were curious, we did indeed go to Akron (city motto: we're not far from the Hall of Fame or Quaker Steak and Lube!). The historic Rubber Bowl, the awe-inspiring blimp hangars, that's plenty to fill up ten days. Or in reality, we went to ye olde Pacific Northwest, splitting time in Seattle, the Cascades, and Olympic National Park. If you haven't gotten to that part of the country, I can't recommend it highly enough.

As for it being a fall wedding, we actually picked the date (8/25) because we could take an extended honeymoon and not miss much sports-wise, since the first week of CFB looked to be such a dog (and UFC 74 hadn't been scheduled yet). Little did I know that Michigan would become such a laughingstock while I was gone - I didn't expect it until at least this week, or maybe next. That's the last time I underestimate them! (On a side note, we should all root for Penn State and Oregon today, so we can see ABC try to hype their premier game between legendary 0-2 teams.)

In football news, it's probably a good thing I have no idea what channel OSU was on today. I understand the offense should take a step back, but come on. It reminds me of the Purdue game a few years ago, when their secondary was so depleted they had AJ Hawk spend significant time at corner. In one of the few times I've ever agreed with Trev Alberts, he praised Hawk's effort, but basically said "Come on, you're Ohio Freaking State. Surely you must have an athlete good enough to plug in there." The same applies today. Sure, you lost a lot of good offensive players. So freaking what? You're playing Akron - plug the new guys in there and steamroll them. It's not like last year's backups didn't get significant playing time. Is it going to be that kind of year?

Miami's radio color guy sounds freakishly like commedian Brian Regan, and if he's trying to be taken seriously, he's almost as funny. I think their hiring qualifications consisted of "won't cheer on helmet-swinging brawls".

I despise it when PI isn't called because the ball isn't catchable, but if not for the PI it very well might've been. Nebraska got majorly lucky that wasn't called, and eked out a win against a decent team playing a backup sucky QB. I know he looked great that one year at ASU, but Keller just doesn't look like a good QB now. Unless it's just a matter of being severely rusty from a year off (although he should've been practicing all along), it looks like the Koetter fiasco totally screwed him.

48
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:05pm

"My date for the evening kicked out, so it looks like I will be watching LSU vs Virginia Tech after all. The only alternatives are Auburn vs UCF and Colorado vs ASU. :(
"

Or UFC 75! Henderson/Rampage should be a great fight, and the Bisping/Hamill and Cro Cop/Congo fights should be outstanding as well. I'm also looking forward to seeing Alexander again (after the way he destroyed Jardine), and Sakara should be a good test for him. Some of the dark matches have good fighters in them as well (Silva, Etim), so it could wind up being a great card. If only it was on live...

49
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:05pm

Pretty good game going on between Cal and Colorado State if anyone has CSTV. 20-14 Cal, late third.

This had great "trap game" potential for Cal, looks like it might be happening.

50
by jtp (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:09pm

Bizarre decision by Bellotti to go for two there, making it 11-7 Oregon.

51
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:09pm

I'm a patient man, but much more of this and I'm going to demand a pound of flesh from Michigan's DC and special teams coach. HOW CAN WE GET FOOLED BY THE SWINGING GATE PLAY!?!?!?!?

52
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:11pm

Looks like the Michigan gameplan against the spread offense is "hope they shoot themselves in the foot with false starts". Worked once to hold them to a field goal, not so much the second time.

Well, if you're going to go for 2 early, it might as well be on a trick play from the swinging gate.

Hart still looks like a beast. Is this his last year finally?

53
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:13pm

I've never seen the 'direct snap to the tight end for the two point conversion in the first quarter' before but there is a first time for everything, I guess.

And now a fumble. Wow.

54
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:14pm

BTW, congrats to Trogdor

55
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:21pm

Nice adjustment by English going with the "bad snap and dropped pass" defense. Not sure I get the all-out blitz on 3rd and 17, but it only almost backfired instead of completely backfiring, so I guess it worked, sort of. Good job.

56
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:25pm

I'm so pissed UFC 75 is only available on tape delay that I'm only going to watch what I can while flipping around during college football. Sporting events are meant to be watched live. Trogdor, don't go to FanHouse if you don't want UFC spoilers.

57
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:40pm

I can't believe you get 42,000 channels on that satellite, and you can't get the British one that's showing it live. They've made enough good decisions to have earned a little trust, but I just don't get this one. I'd be willing to pay a little to watch it live or at my convenience before the free airing (not the full 40/50 necessarily, but maybe 20, especially if I could zip through commercials between fights).

While I'm at it, I'd like to apologize to Randy Couture for ever doubting him. I thought Gonzaga was exactly the type of fighter that had chased him out of the heavyweight division - a good enough grappler to hang with him, and big enough to wear him down (see Rodriguez and roid-aided Barnett). It looks like the time off after losing to Liddell did Couture some serious good. He's been one of my favorites ever since the first time he whooped up on Belfort, but I wouldn't have imagined he'd still be this good at that age. Amazing.

OK, so he missed the kick. But if you're Oregon, why not try a bit harder to block it? They clearly have protection issues, and the kicker looked like he was about to wet his pants in terror. And that ends my UFC comment with enough football-related substance to be on-topic.

58
by joe football (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:42pm

Ok, I thought Dixon was avoiding contact earlier, but that was ridiculous. He was like 3 yards away from the endzone on third down

59
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:45pm

I hate football.....

60
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:45pm

I agree with that call (going for it on 4th and 2 from the 3) a lot more than I did with going for 2. Fortunately for Oregon, both worked extremely well. It's still hard to believe how easily they're running it right up the middle - I know Michigan lost a lot this offseason, but still.

While flipping through the channel guide looking for some British channel showing UFC live, I saw a show on the History Channel called "Dogfights". Thanks to Vick, the first thing I thought of is radically different than it would've been just a few months ago.

61
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:48pm

What's with the invisible names on Oregon's jerseys?

So much for Miami being a sleeper team. That final score was ugly.

Why is Clemson only ranked #25?

62
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:50pm

Mike Hart has deceptive speed! (according to Bellotti)

In all seriousness, he's been easily the most impressive aspect of this Michigan team.

63
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:56pm

No hangover for Appalachian State - they lead Lenoir-Rhyne 38-0 at halftime.

64
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 5:57pm

Henne's been around long enough he should be able to read these blitzes, and it looks like he is somewhat. Are the receivers just not adjusting? It seems like every time Oregon blitzes they end a drive. Even the interception was on a blitz that was blocked perfectly - but the receiver was bumped off (lucky a penalty wasn't called - there shouldn't have been, but you never know) and there was a safety there anyway. I don't know why Michigan can't take advantage of these blitzes with a ninth-year QB and experienced giant receivers (is it just me or do all of them look like tight ends?), but they're really struggling.

And #22 just got blocked by his own guy, turning a four yard gain into a much larger one. When you struggle that badly against the spread to begin with, you can't go blocking your own guys by taking such horrible angles like that. Or am I confusing chicken and egg?

65
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:01pm

The fake Statue of Liberty is my new favorite play.

(Nothing personal, Russ; it would be my new favorite play if Michigan did it to Oregon, too.)

66
by Stereochemistry (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:01pm

Amazing play idea: The statue of liberty has become so well known, you can now FAKE the play and score.

67
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:02pm

Wow, a fake Statue of Liberty. Egads. A trick play set up by an earlier trick play - this is TDZ worthy.

Anyone else not surprised seeing an accurate, mobile QB wearing #10 in a spread attack making a mockery of Michigan's defense? I swear I've seen this before at least four times the last three years...

68
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:06pm

I'm going to be incredibly depressed when Michigan STILL finds a way to beat PSU in a few weeks.

69
by jtp (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:06pm

Being from Oregon, I see a lot of U of O games and I must say that they run about the most creative offense of any BCS conference team.

70
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:07pm

I think Appalacian State underachieved last week.

71
by jtp (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:07pm

Michigan's defense can't defend the run or the pass! A 85 yard touchdown and a 61 yard touchdown.

72
by jtp (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:09pm

Too expand on how bad the Michigan D has been: They've given up 390 yards and it isn't even half-time yet.

73
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:10pm

I like Lloyd Carr. I get why Michigan's administration likes Lloyd Carr. Bo Schembechler was my idol when I was five years old and I'm glad Michigan still has a link to him. But:

Michigan can't give up, on average, more than 10 points a quarter, at home, over a game and a half against Appalachian State and Oregon. They just can't. Or else they're not Michigan anymore. The coach who allows that to happen can't stay as coach anymore. He just can't.

74
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:16pm

All things considered, taking a timeout with 1:12 left in the half is probably a better decision than rushing the backup QB in for 4th and 12. I can't believe that was what they were actually going to do.

And Henne shakes off the cobwebs and throws a strike. Amazing how when you do the logical thing, better things happen for you. Lucky break on the chinstrap malfunction.

75
by OMO (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:18pm

I'd just like to know from what university did they truck in those attractive girls in UM jerseys?

76
by jtp (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:19pm

So much for Michigan getting a little momentum going into the locker room...

77
by OMO (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:21pm

My Michigan grad BOL is at the game...talking to my MSU grad wife on the phone right now...it's a pretty brutal conversation...

He is saying that his section is trying to organize a walkout...leave at half and not come back.

Not good times at the Big House.

78
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:24pm

This would be interesting to know: When was the last time a team underperformed the point spread by more than 25 points in back-to-back weeks? I believe the spread was at least 23 last week (anyone remember exactly?), and Michigan lost by two, so they underperformed the spread by at least 25 last week. And they certainly appear well on their way to losing by more than 17 this week.

I wouldn't even know where to begin looking for that kind of info, but if someone else has it, I'd be fascinated to find out.

79
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:27pm

MDS, well put about Carr. He's got 30 minutes to show me that he shouldn't resign immediately, effective the end of the season.

80
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:31pm

End of the season?! When the team comes out for the second half, Carr shouldn't be on the sidelines with them, he should be gone already.

Someone HAS to lose their job after this game. Carr, English, somebody.

For Carr to gripe about the OFFENSE at halftime proves he very well might be clinically insane.

No, coaching out this season will not be good enough, even if it's understood Carr won't be back. The Wolvies need a new coach ASAP. It's not as if they could possibly do any worse than with Carr.

81
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:32pm

Re: 78

Start with the 1999 Arizona Wildcats, who beat Middle Tennessee by 15 when a 43.5 point favorite, then lost to Stanford by 28 when a 13.5 point favorite.

Michigan was favored by somewhere between 25 and 28 points last week, if you could find a line.

82
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:33pm

Oh, and I have to add tat if Oregon somehow finds a way to lose this, then Belotti should be fired.

So either way, this game should be the last for *one* of the coaches in it.

83
by Whiskey (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:33pm

OK, I'm watching this, and Chad Henne does not look like a top QB at all. A lot of his throws are high, and he's taking too many sacks at key times.

Michigan's defense looks bad, but the offense has still only scored 7 points. They're supposed to be the strength of the team.

84
by Whiskey (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:35pm

80:

For Carr to gripe about the OFFENSE at halftime proves he very well might be clinically insane.

Or that he knows the defense is so bad that the offense has to make up for it in a big way.

85
by Russell Levine :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:36pm

Whiskey, it's worse than that. The offense gained 307 yards, was inside the Oregon 30 on all six of its first half possessions, and still scored only 7 points.

86
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:38pm

Here's the game plan for every team remaining on Michigan's schedule.

Make sure the offense shows up in time for the game and runs the spread. Even lining up in a spread formation should cause the Michigan defenders to faint with fear at this point. On defense, line up 10 in the box to stop Hart, since nobody else on the team can beat you. Get a two TD lead, and then blitz away on Henne. Rinse, lather, repeat.

BTW if not for one false start penalty Oregon would have 4 more points. Think about that one for a bit.

87
by jtp (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:38pm

Michigan's offense has just one less first down than Oregon's (17 for Michigan, 18 for Oregon) and has piled up quite a few yards (307) but they've been killed by turnovers (1 interception, 1 lost fumble, and the turnover on downs) and an inability to move the ball in the red zone.

88
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:39pm

What would be the point in firing Carr after the game and letting him finish the season? What if he won the next ten?

Have I mentioned that Michigan has BCSed three of the last four seasons? Sorry, but any fan that is unhappy after that defines the term "spoiled".

The whole "I'm unhappy, so I must make someone else unhappy by punishing them" thing is lame.

It's two games, guys. Get a grip. :)

89
by Whiskey (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:40pm

85:

Whiskey, it’s worse than that. The offense gained 307 yards, was inside the Oregon 30 on all six of its first half possessions, and still scored only 7 points.

Exactly. Talented seniors should produce in the red zone, not take long sacks or get a delay of game penalty to get knocked out of field goal range.

90
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:40pm

Unfortunately the only other game I can watch at the moment is NC State-BC. The NC State QB has thrown what seems like ten INTs.

#81: Remember the year when Arizona was SI's cover pick to win the national title and they wound up losing something like 5 games? Bruschi's senior year I think.

91
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:42pm

Re: 78

Colorado in 2005 missed the spread by 45 (against Nebraska) and 31.5 (the 70-3 Texas beatdown) at the end of the season.

92
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:43pm

That should be 41.5 vs. Texas.

93
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:44pm

Wait, a stop by the Michigan defense?

Uber-recruit Ryan Mallett is coming in for the Wolverines- Henne is hurt.

94
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:45pm

Thanks. When I wrote, "if someone else has it," I really meant, "if Travis wants to research it for me."

As long as Willingham is at Washington and Weis is at Notre Dame, I want Washington to be better at Notre Dame. That certainly appears to be the case this year.

95
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:45pm

#88: Wins their next ten?! Have you SEEN them play at ALL this season? Or in their last two games of last season?

They're about to lose 4 in a row for the first time in FORTY YEARS, looking worse every time, and you're yammering on about how Carr should get another chance, unbelievable.

If anybody deserved to be fired from any job in America right now, it's Lloyd Carr. Keeping him on another week will just ensure at least 4 more losses.

I honestly don't think Michigan's even getting to a bowl this year, and all they'd need is 6 wins out of 12 games. The way they've "responded" to the loss last week is about as bad as it gets--they've basically confirmed that everyone who talked trash about them was right on the money.

96
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:46pm

86: But if they followed those instructions, they'd get out of the shower with shampoo still in their hair.

I honestly don't know what's wrong with Michigan's offense. They've put up some good stats and all, and as one friend described them, "They're much too good to be that bad". With all that talent (Henne, Hart, Manningham, possibly Arrington, and probably a few O-line guys will all be in the NFL soon) it's astounding that they can't convert more of their opportunities into points. I don't fault Carr for being pissed at the offense. Even with the defense struggling, it could easily be 32-24 or something if the offense wasn't scarfing down chicken bones in a noble attempt to choke away every chance at points.

97
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:50pm

One more: Fresno State last year missed spreads by 26, 26, and 28 in three consecutive weeks. The next week, they failed to cover as a 31-point underdog.

Hypothetical: If Carr were to be fired immediately after this game (not happening), who is there to replace him?

98
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:53pm

"Hypothetical: If Carr were to be fired immediately after this game (not happening), who is there to replace him?"

I'll do it. I work cheaply, and I lead W&M to numerous titles on the PS2. :)

99
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:56pm

Wow, Vegas sure was wrong about Fresno last year. If anyone had had some inside information about what the hell was going wrong there, they could have made a lot of money.

100
by Bill Barnwell :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 6:58pm

This is the avoiding UFC spoilers open discussion thread?

101
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:03pm

Not a misprint: Western Kentucky, which just moved up to I-A, is leading West Virginia Tech (who I think is D-II) 49-0 in the first quarter. Western Kentucky has 3 non-offensive TDs already.

102
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:04pm

I also don't see how firing Carr now would help anything. Who exactly would take over, and why would you expect it to be any better? And Michigan certainly has the talent to win a whole bunch of games still - an 8-4 season is completely realistic, and if OSU is as down this year as they looked today Carr might even get a win there. (All that changes if Boeckman somehow becomes a dangerous run/pass option, of course)

Heck, even this game isn't over! It would be an amazing comeback, of course, but it's only four scores, and they have the weapons to (theoretically) put up points in a hurry. An offensive score, and maybe a big turnover or special teams play, and suddenly the pressure's squarely on Oregon. It's not likely, but in college anything can happen.

There's far, far too much talent on this team to count them out so early in the season. We've seen teams go 0-2 and become monsters before this (FSU started one season losing to Clemson and Favre, then blew everyone out the rest of the way; I think Colorado came back from 0-2 to whining about not being in the title game in 2001), and it wouldn't be shocking to see Michigan do it. There's a reason we're all so shocked to see such a meltdown, remember.

That said, this loss is especially bad. Last week was bad, but everyone lays an egg once in a while. But to respond with an effort like this... yeesh.

103
by GatorGriff (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:15pm

Reason # 406 why Comcast SUCKS. IN Chicago, we aren't getting ESPN or espn2 at the moment. I called and they said it wasn't their issue, it was ESPN's issue. Is anyone else having problems with ESPN or espn2?

Comcast can go #@&! themselves.

104
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:18pm

I have DirecTV, also in Chicago, and both ESPN and ESPN2 are coming in fine.

I think we just saw why 18 points is too many to give any team that's playing against Anthony Morelli.

105
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:18pm

More bad news for Russell- Notre Dame is up 7-0 after Morelli throws a terrible pass that is picked and run back for 6.

106
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:20pm

I'm getting both of them. ND just returned an interception for a TD, and the Cocks just scored on Georgia somehow.

107
by kevin11 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:24pm

97- Exactly.

Have we all forgotten how MESSY college football coach searches can be? Just ask a Nebraska, Alabama, or a Notre Dame fan how frustrating those can be.

95- I saw highlights of last week's game, and all of today's so far. Switching to Georgia vs South Carolina now.

108
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:25pm

Clausen holds onto the ball way too long when he could have thrown it away, keeps backing up, eventually gets sacked for a loss of 12, and Mike Patrick says, "he did a nice job of keeping it alive."

109
by BadgerT1000 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:37pm

I am growing increasingly concerned that the Big 10 is, well, not so hot. I take heart in WI beating AK in January with most of the current roster.

But still. This is eerie stuff I'm watching.

I continue to maintain that Henne is a pedestrian qb made to look better by surrounding talent. He's Elvis Grbac. And that might be a dig at Elvis....

110
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:37pm

Derrick Williams is fast, although he could have just cut to the sideline instead of cutting inside and making me sweat. I thought for sure there was a block in the back there. PSU-ND tied at 7.

111
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:38pm

It wouldn't be a Mike Patrick broadcast without random meaningless uses of the word "poise". Of course, immediately after having his poise talked up, Clausen takes an Aaron Brooks drop and heaves up a not-quite-grounding duck.

And a punt return TD. Awesome. Just for the ABC promos, we all need Penn State to win tonight. The two winningest programs in NCAA history (history = not this year), next Saturday on ABC!

How awesome would it be next week if they could somehow both lose?

112
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:41pm

Was the Notre Dame idiot kicked out? I had it muted because Patrick theoretically could've been talking, but it looked like the kind of thing someone should be thrown out of the game for.

113
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:43pm

Nice beatdown by those two ND players on a PSU guy already on the ground on that punt BTW. Somehow I don't think that's what Weis meant when he said he wanted more physical play.

114
by Rocco (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:43pm

#112-

I don't think he was kicked out- if he was, the ref didn't say so. He deserved to be.

115
by DolFan 316 (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:45pm

#112: It's Notre Dame so of course not. In fact I'm astonished there was even a flag there--the ref looked like he wanted to settle in and grab some popcorn while that beatdown was going on.

116
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:46pm

I'm surprised college football doesn't discipline players more for on-field cheap shots. In the NFL that would have been an ejection with a good chance of a suspension for the following week.

117
by morganja (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:50pm

Just got back from "The Rock". Second team in during the second quarter, third string in for the fourth. Gave up a touchdown with 45 seconds left. Final 48-7. So, how are the big boys doing? ..........oh.

Appalachian State 48 Lenoir-Rhyne 7
Appalachian State 34 Michigan 32
Appalachian State 42 Oakland Raiders 10

Just checking if Raiderjoe is on.

118
by CA (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 7:53pm

It's not Carr's fault that Michigan was ridiculously overrated heading into this season. It's time for the college football world to accept that the 2007 Wolverines simply are not particularly talented (and they weren’t all that great last year, either). Carr is a good coach of a not very good team.

119
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:04pm

I'm not willing to stipulate that the the 2007 Wolverines are not particularly talented, but if that's the case, whose fault is that?

120
by Gerry (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:04pm

Holy Shit, Russ. I am sorry.

121
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:07pm

Fresno State-Texas A&M (on most Fox Sports regional channels) heading to OT tied at 29.

122
by Eric J (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:11pm

In case anyone cares, WV Tech is NAIA.

123
by morganja (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:12pm

Look at it this way. Michigan is stuck on 860 wins and 11 National Championships.

124
by Duck in MA (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:17pm

Ah, it's a good day today! Lloyd Carr will still be around for a few more games, but another loss to tOSU and bowl game (or God forbid missing a bowl game!) and he's gone. Too bad. But Bellotti just served some notice that the Pac-10 should not be underestimated this season. Along with USC and Cal, whom I consider to be the two fighting for the top, UCLA, UW and UO are all looking pretty good and could pull some upsets and make things interesting.

125
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:19pm

Bad call, upheld on replay review, in favor of Fresno State likely just cost A&M the game. The ref didn't even explain why it was upheld, just announced it.

126
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:19pm

Absolutely awful replay review in A&M-Fresno. The Fresno WR caught a 24-yard pass on the first play of OT, tried to stretch the ball over the goal line, and lost possession without being touched. They ruled that the WR stepped out-of-bounds on the play, and didn't overturn it despite clear evidence to the contrary.

127
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:23pm

This is insane. I'd say this was an out-and-out screwjob, but A&M is the home team.

128
by Mike :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:24pm

And then the ref reviews it again and reverses it. Even though I think they got it right in the end, the way this referee handled the replay was a disgrace -- how long was that delay in all, 20 minutes? I really hate the fact that I can't spend a Saturday watching football without at least one game marred by replay.

129
by Travis (not verified) :: Sat, 09/08/2007 - 8:26pm

Ref reviews it again, reverses it, BUT finds a roughing-the-passer against A&M. I don't understand what they're doing.

130