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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Week 10 DVOA Ratings

11/13/2007

by Aaron Schatz

The biggest development of Week 10, of course, is the tsunami of injuries that has hit the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts remain number two for 2007, but they are just barely ahead of the Cowboys, and the Patriots and Colts are no longer the two best teams of the DVOA era. The Colts have fallen back into the pack, although they are still the sixth-best team in history. (They’ve fallen behind Dallas and into third place in WEIGHTED DVOA.)

The other big news of the week is Green Bay’s destruction of Minnesota, which moves the Packers up into fifth place. I think logically we would all agree this makes sense. The five teams that are 7-2 or better are now the top five teams in DVOA, and all five are in the Top 10 for both offense and defense. The Vikings, meanwhile, have been jerked around wildly because of two games at opposite sides of the spectrum. The Week 9 win over San Diego currently has a DVOA of 101.2%, which is the fourth-best single game of 2007. The Week 10 loss has a DVOA of -71.4% — that doesn’t qualify for the ten worst losses of the year, but it is pretty close. So the Vikings have gone from 16 to 8 to 15 in the space of two weeks. (Last week’s rating actually was artificially high due to an error in special teams, but even the corrected Vikings were eighth overall.)

Oh, and because I know you will ask, the other top single games of the year, based on current opponent adjustments, are Arizona’s upset of Pittsburgh, New England’s demolition of Washington, and two Pittsburgh games: Week 1 against Cleveland and Week 9 against Baltimore. Let’s hit the numbers…

* * * * *

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 10 weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

As of this week, opponent adjustments are at full strength, although they will continue to change throughout the season as we get more information on how good each team really is.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>


TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
WEEK 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
1 NE 73.2% 1 68.6% 9-0 48.5% 1 -18.5% 3 6.3% 5
2 IND 42.1% 2 34.6% 7-2 30.6% 2 -17.4% 4 -6.0% 31
3 DAL 41.6% 3 39.0% 8-1 28.3% 3 -12.8% 6 0.5% 14
4 PIT 32.8% 4 39.1% 7-2 12.6% 9 -23.8% 2 -3.6% 25
5 GB 23.7% 7 28.3% 8-1 17.0% 4 -6.4% 9 0.2% 15
6 TB 18.1% 6 13.1% 5-4 15.5% 6 -4.5% 12 -2.0% 18
7 SD 14.7% 13 8.5% 5-4 0.3% 16 -5.1% 11 9.3% 1
8 JAC 13.8% 9 11.0% 6-3 10.6% 10 0.5% 15 3.7% 9
9 SEA 12.1% 10 21.9% 5-4 -1.1% 18 -5.5% 10 7.7% 2
10 TEN 11.2% 5 11.6% 6-3 -11.0% 25 -25.6% 1 -3.5% 24
11 NYG 6.7% 11 9.8% 6-3 7.6% 12 -3.8% 13 -4.7% 29
12 CLE 5.3% 15 -0.5% 5-4 13.3% 8 15.3% 27 7.3% 3
13 PHI 4.9% 12 2.9% 4-5 15.9% 5 8.1% 22 -2.9% 22
14 WAS 3.3% 14 -4.7% 5-4 -4.9% 22 -7.4% 8 0.9% 13
15 MIN 2.6% 8 0.9% 3-6 2.5% 15 1.6% 16 1.7% 11
16 CIN -0.3% 17 3.5% 3-6 15.5% 7 14.9% 26 -0.9% 16
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
WEEK 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
17 BUF -2.4% 16 -6.1% 5-4 -9.1% 23 0.0% 14 6.7% 4
18 ARI -3.3% 21 4.5% 4-5 -2.8% 19 1.8% 17 1.4% 12
19 DEN -6.0% 24 -8.3% 4-5 6.3% 13 11.1% 23 -1.2% 17
20 BAL -9.8% 20 -5.4% 4-5 -22.6% 29 -15.4% 5 -2.6% 21
21 NO -12.4% 19 -13.0% 4-5 8.7% 11 16.6% 29 -4.6% 28
22 DET -13.8% 18 -4.1% 6-3 -4.0% 20 3.5% 20 -6.2% 32
23 HOU -14.4% 23 -11.7% 4-5 -0.8% 17 15.3% 28 1.8% 10
24 KC -16.4% 22 -11.8% 4-5 -22.6% 30 -8.2% 7 -2.0% 19
25 ATL -17.6% 26 -7.4% 3-6 -10.1% 24 5.1% 21 -2.4% 20
26 MIA -19.8% 28 -28.5% 0-9 2.5% 14 18.6% 31 -3.7% 26
27 CAR -20.4% 25 -15.1% 4-5 -12.9% 26 2.1% 18 -5.4% 30
28 CHI -20.7% 27 -17.2% 4-5 -24.0% 31 2.1% 19 5.4% 7
29 NYJ -25.6% 29 -27.9% 1-8 -4.8% 21 26.9% 32 6.2% 6
30 STL -34.0% 31 -34.9% 1-8 -16.7% 27 13.4% 25 -4.0% 27
31 OAK -35.3% 30 -28.1% 2-7 -19.1% 28 13.1% 24 -3.1% 23
32 SF -51.6% 32 -46.0% 2-7 -38.0% 32 17.8% 30 4.2% 8

  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as “Forest Index” that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team’s weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).


TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK PAST
SCHED 		RANK FUTURE
SCHED 		RANK VAR. RANK
1 NE 73.2% 9-0 9.0 1 73.9% 1 5.8% 5 -2.3% 19 2.7% 32
2 IND 42.1% 7-2 8.5 2 40.3% 3 7.8% 1 -11.4% 26 10.4% 15
3 DAL 41.6% 8-1 7.2 3 41.8% 2 1.5% 14 -4.1% 20 8.1% 22
4 PIT 32.8% 7-2 6.0 5 29.0% 4 -5.1% 26 -0.5% 15 31.6% 2
5 GB 23.7% 8-1 6.4 4 23.7% 5 -1.0% 18 -16.4% 27 8.4% 21
6 TB 18.1% 5-4 5.7 7 18.2% 6 -0.5% 17 -21.8% 32 21.9% 6
7 SD 14.7% 5-4 5.2 9 17.0% 7 4.7% 10 -9.4% 23 30.6% 3
8 JAC 13.8% 6-3 5.9 6 14.3% 8 1.6% 13 2.9% 14 7.1% 23
9 SEA 12.1% 5-4 5.1 11 11.2% 9 -9.7% 32 -17.1% 29 13.4% 11
10 TEN 11.2% 6-3 5.2 10 11.1% 10 -1.2% 19 -1.0% 17 8.4% 20
11 NYG 6.7% 6-3 5.0 14 8.5% 11 0.0% 16 7.5% 10 5.7% 28
12 CLE 5.3% 5-4 5.2 8 7.6% 12 5.2% 8 -18.0% 30 9.0% 19
13 PHI 4.9% 4-5 5.1 12 3.0% 13 1.9% 12 16.5% 3 17.6% 8
14 WAS 3.3% 5-4 4.6 17 2.9% 14 5.1% 9 14.3% 6 9.7% 17
15 MIN 2.6% 3-6 4.9 15 2.2% 15 3.8% 11 -19.9% 31 23.3% 5
16 CIN -0.3% 3-6 5.1 13 -0.6% 17 5.9% 4 -9.9% 24 3.8% 31
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK PAST
SCHED 		RANK FUTURE
SCHED 		RANK VAR. RANK
17 BUF -2.4% 5-4 4.7 16 1.0% 16 6.0% 2 14.6% 5 10.8% 14
18 ARI -3.3% 4-5 3.8 21 -3.4% 18 -6.3% 29 -16.4% 28 33.3% 1
19 DEN -6.0% 4-5 4.3 18 -8.1% 19 5.9% 3 -10.0% 25 19.2% 7
20 BAL -9.8% 4-5 3.5 23 -10.5% 21 -8.0% 30 26.7% 1 6.4% 26
21 NO -12.4% 4-5 4.0 20 -8.7% 20 -2.7% 23 -9.2% 22 10.1% 16
22 DET -13.8% 6-3 4.2 19 -14.2% 22 -6.1% 27 16.1% 4 24.4% 4
23 HOU -14.4% 4-5 3.6 22 -18.0% 25 -2.8% 24 12.0% 9 11.1% 13
24 KC -16.4% 4-5 3.4 25 -15.0% 23 -2.4% 22 -2.2% 18 9.5% 18
25 ATL -17.6% 3-6 3.3 26 -16.4% 24 -8.5% 31 6.7% 12 6.7% 25
26 MIA -19.8% 0-9 2.9 28 -21.1% 28 5.2% 7 12.1% 8 5.9% 27
27 CAR -20.4% 4-5 3.4 24 -19.2% 26 -2.8% 25 7.5% 11 14.0% 10
28 CHI -22.5% 4-5 3.3 27 -20.2% 27 0.8% 15 5.0% 13 4.7% 30
29 NYJ -25.9% 1-8 2.6 29 -24.0% 29 5.3% 6 21.3% 2 5.1% 29
30 STL -34.0% 1-8 1.9 30 -33.5% 30 -2.1% 21 -0.7% 16 14.3% 9
31 OAK -35.3% 2-7 1.6 31 -34.1% 31 -6.2% 28 12.4% 7 12.1% 12
32 SF -51.6% 2-7 1.1 32 -53.4% 32 -1.4% 20 -5.4% 21 7.0% 24

Our feature on the best teams of the DVOA era changes again this week. First of all, we’ll say goodbye to our “best defensive teams” table. Tennessee is still number one for 2007 after their loss to Jacksonville, but they are no longer near the top teams since 1996. However, and it really pains me to have to bring this up, San Francisco has finally reached the level of incompetence that forces us to look both ways: the best and worst DVOA ratings ever.

Best and Worst DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA
AFTER WEEK 10		   BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA
AFTER WEEK 10		   WORST TOTAL DVOA
AFTER WEEK 10		   WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA
AFTER WEEK 10
2007 NE 73.2%   2007 NE 48.5%   2005 SF -63.0%   2005 SF -48.2%
1996 GB 48.6%   2004 IND 41.2%   2000 CIN -54.4%   1996 STL -39.7%
2001 STL 47.5%   2000 STL 39.7%   2007 SF -51.6%   2002 HOU -39.3%
2001 PHI 46.2%   2000 IND 38.1%   1996 STL -49.8%   1999 ARI -38.3%
1999 STL 45.7%   2006 IND 34.4%   2005 HOU -48.4%   2007 SF -38.0%
2007 IND 42.1%   1999 WAS 31.2%   2002 HOU -47.2%   2006 OAK -36.9%
2000 TEN 41.8%   2001 STL 31.0%   1999 CLE -47.2%   1997 NO -35.2%
2007 DAL 41.6%   1998 DEN 30.7%   2000 CLE -47.2%   2004 MIA -35.0%
2002 TB 41.6%   2007 IND 30.6%   2000 ARI -45.5%   1999 SD -34.0%
1998 DEN 38.7%   2002 KC 30.3%   1999 CIN -42.7%   2000 CLE -33.8%

Yes, they are that bad, although they are not as bad as… themselves, two years ago. I doubt that this year’s 49ers are going to get down to that level of ineptitude. The 49ers have pulled away from the bottom of the pack, but it really doesn’t compare to the way the Patriots have pulled away from the top of the pack. Two teams from the “DVOA Era” are listed in Eddie Epstein’s book on the best NFL teams ever. He ends up ranking the 1999 Rams tenth and the 1996 Packers sixth. Notice how much the Patriots are blowing away those two dominant teams. Also notice that they are the most consistent team in the league this year. Wow.

Speaking of players who make you say “Wow,” how about that Devin Hester. It’s been a very popular question around here: How is Chicago’s DVOA affected by teams trying short kicks or squibs to avoid Hester. The short answer, prior to this week, was “about two percentage points.”

The long answer actually addresses three questions:

  • 1) Are teams treating Hester differently compared to the other good kick returners of recent years?
  • 2) Is this a winning or losing strategy for Chicago’s opponents?
  • 3) If the answer to number one is “yes,” how does that affect DVOA?

To answer the first question, take a look at this table showing the teams with the lowest average gross kickoff distance AGAINST, since the introduction of the K-ball in 1999.

Year Team Avg Kick Main Returner
2007 CHI 56.5 Devin Hester
2000 CIN 58.5 Tremain Mack
2001 CLE 59.8 Ben Gay, Andre King
2004 CLE 59.9 Richard Alston
2003 NE 60.2 Bethel Johnson
2001 NYJ 60.3 Craig Yeast, Chad Morton
2005 CLE 60.4 Josh Cribbs
2003 PIT 60.4 Ike Taylor, Antwaan Randle El
2001 CHI 60.5 Autry Denson, Leon Johnson
2004 KC 60.5 Dante Hall

OK, so Hester is truly unique. The average kickoff to the Bears this year is shorter than to any other team in the last eight years, and there are extenuating circumstances with the other teams below 60.0.

The 2000 Bengals are just weird, because Tremain Mack was one of the worst kick returners in the league that year. It looks like the Bengals were getting blown out so often that teams were constantly kicking short in the second half, to prevent the rare touchdown return that would launch the surprise comeback.

There is clearly something going on with Cleveland that I never noticed before. Two other Cleveland years just miss this list: 1999 (60.5 — it misses by hundredths of a yard) and 2006 (61.0). A stadium near the water affects San Francisco’s punting numbers, and I have an adjustment for that. Perhaps the winds affect kickoffs in Cleveland rather than punts, and I need to add an adjustment for that too.

It turns out teams didn’t really treat Dante Hall the way they are treating Hester. Even in 2003, the year Hall was allegedly an MVP candidate, the average kickoff to Kansas City went 63.4 yards. In fact, the average kickoff distance in Weeks 1-8 (63.4) was no different from the average kickoff distance in Weeks 10-17 (63.3), after Hall had established himself as a major threat.

OK, second question: Is this a good idea? I just looked at this for an upcoming issue of ESPN the Magazine, and here’s what I found.

Hester did not take over as Chicago’s main kickoff returner until Week 13 of last year, and teams generally kicked to him during last year’s regular season and for the first four weeks of this year. Overall, from Week 13 of 2006 through Week 8 of 2007 teams kicked away to Hester 46 times and tried to avoid him 35 times. (This is my best estimate, obviously I may be wrong about the intention of a couple of those kicks.)

  • The net gain from kicking to Hester averaged 37.8 yards. The net gain from avoiding Hester averaged just 34.0 yards.
  • Chicago’s averaging starting position was their own 31.7-yard line when the other team kicked to Hester, and their own 36.9-yard line when the other team avoided Hester.
  • On average, kicking deep to Hester was worth -.29 points of field position compared to the league average for kickoffs. The average kickoff which avoided Hester was worth -.42 points of field position.

The stats for kicking deep to Hester would be even better if we included this week’s game against Oakland. The numbers seem to say that it is better to kick to Hester, and don’t even consider two other issues: fumbles and penalties. Hester may be Mr. 100 Speed, but the guy has butterfingers. Four fumbles is an astonishing number for a guy who has only fielded 50 kickoffs in his career. Two of those fumbles were recovered by the kicking team, giving them the ball deep in Chicago territory. (On punts, the problem is even worse: 11 muffs or fumbles in a year and a half, twice as many as any other player in the NFL.)

Every great Hester run is also one block in the back away from disappearing into thin air. Hester lost a touchdown to a penalty against Seattle in the playoffs, and he lost another one against Kansas City in Week 2. Even a shorter Hester return could be docked 10 yards on a penalty, and that’s not going to happen when Israel Idonije is fair catching a short kick.

Hester is a good kickoff returner, not a great one. He’s a great punt returner (despite the muffs) but kickoff returns and punt returns use different skills. Late in the half or nursing a lead, it makes sense to avoid Hester. Otherwise, teams are just handing Chicago the ball 20 yards from field-goal position, and even an inept offense like Chicago will gain 20 yards on a lot of drives. Avoiding Hester is a losing strategy.

However, it is a strategy people are using, which means that we need to start accounting for it. The Bears seem to be an exception to the general rule that the receiving team has no control over opposing kickoffs. Therefore, beginning this week, the 2007 special teams ratings include an “avoid Hester” penalty. In general, squib kicks at the end of a half are left out of DVOA. If Stephen Gostkowski squibs it 30 yards with five seconds left in the first half, that doesn’t really say anything about Gostkowski’s kicking ability. The squibs to Hester which came earlier in the game were being counted as bad kicks for the kicking team but were showing up in Chicago’s ratings as very short returns.

Now, based on my subjective decision, I’ve also coded a number of kickoffs to Chicago as “Hester squibs.” On these kicks, I will be giving Chicago value based not on the return of the kickoff, but the net value of the kickoff compared to all NFL kickoffs. It’s a temporary solution, and it is not exact, and I’m sure people can criticize it and pick it apart, but it seems to work for now. Overall, this raises Chicago’s special teams DVOA from 3.5% to 5.4%, and the Bears go from 23rd in kick returns to 11th. I also marked a couple of Leon Washington returns as “Hester squibs,” and looked for them for other guys (Cribbs, for example) but couldn’t find anything that clearly qualified.

In the off-season, we can go through and look to see if there is a pattern to squib kicks in general, and figure out how to handle short kicks of all kinds: the end-of-half squibs, the “we have a 28-point lead so who cares” squibs, and the “Devin Hester scares me” squibs.

Housekeeping: The premium database is updated, the team stats pages are updated, the playoff odds are updated, and the Loser League is updated with the first week of the second contest. Note that the premium data and playoff odds were both computed prior to installing the “Hester fix” to special teams, so numbers may differ slightly from those here. I’ll get to updating all the individual stuff tonight when I get some free time.

For (short) comments on every team, remember to look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream page.)

posted 11-13-2007 at 4:39 PM by Aaron Schatz || DVOA Ratings ||

186 Comments »

  1. Colts picked up Simeon Rice off waivers to replace Freeney who is seriously hurt.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 4:54 pm



  2. San Diego jumped 6 freakin’ spots?!

    I can’t wait to see the Giants-Detroit game… how can any team have worse special teams than the Giants? What does that look like?

    :: kevinNYC — 11/13/2007 @ 4:59 pm



  3. #1

    Nathan, correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that mean that every team with a worse record than the Colts had the opportunity to claim him and didn’t?

    I know Rice was the proto-Freeny, and played in the Dungy Defense in Tampa, and from what I read, he’s cheap, but how much does he really have to offer the Colts at this point?

    :: James, London — 11/13/2007 @ 5:01 pm



  4. With the way the Colts are messed up right now, I have a feeling my Chiefs can rise up and avenge the playoff loss last year. It’ll be all defensive though. 6 picks last week for Manning 8 this week!

    :: Aaron — 11/13/2007 @ 5:01 pm



  5. 1st?

    :: Mike Leach — 11/13/2007 @ 5:01 pm



  6. re: 3.

    “Nathan, correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that mean that every team with a worse record than the Colts had the opportunity to claim him and didn’t?

    I know Rice was the proto-Freeny, and played in the Dungy Defense in Tampa, and from what I read, he’s cheap, but how much does he really have to offer the Colts at this point? ”

    Really, we have no idea if he will help. The positive here is that guys like Rice and Freeney don’t actually work well under other defenses that require the DEs to do more than just rush the QB.

    It ends up being the best situation for Rice. The best situation for the Colts.

    If Rice is better than a replacement DE the Colts have is hard to say, but at the price tag they are getting him for, I don’t think it matters.

    Make sense?

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:04 pm



  7. One thing you may want to look at in the offseason (in regards to the Hester squib adjustment) is Chicago’s offense. Teams conceding some field position value to Chicago is alot different than conceding some field position to a team who’s offense more closely resembles a professional football team.

    :: Wanker79 — 11/13/2007 @ 5:05 pm



  8. 2: Looks like Indy’s special teams, Detroit’s special teams or Carolina’s special teams.

    In other words…just plain ugly.

    :: Rex\\\'s Evil Twin — 11/13/2007 @ 5:06 pm



  9. And only days ago the Colts were miles ahead of te rest of the league. Interesting.

    :: thestar5 — 11/13/2007 @ 5:06 pm



  10. #2

    The big difference between NYG & DET special teams is in punting and punt returns. Picture the Giants without Jeff Feagles, and with a few muffed returns. (Say what you will about R.W. McQuarters, but he does field the ball cleanly.)

    :: JasonK — 11/13/2007 @ 5:10 pm



  11. Where do the Colts & Chargers special teams DVOA from this past game compare to the all time worst and best, respectively?

    :: M — 11/13/2007 @ 5:10 pm



  12. And to my astonishment after the NYG and Buffalo games, Miami still have a positive offensive DVOA.

    Ah, the split explains it; Passing -6.0%, rank 22 Rushing 12.0% Rank 6.

    :: James, London — 11/13/2007 @ 5:11 pm



  13. After watching the game last night, it’s hard to believe there were worse offenses than San Francisco’s.

    On a related note, does anyone know if that “non-catch” at the end of the half will be reviewed or changed eventually, or does it just stay in the books? Doens’t matter, obviously (although that single play represents almost half of the 49ers’ net passing yards)–just curious since no one but the refs seem to think it was a completion.

    :: citizen jason — 11/13/2007 @ 5:13 pm



  14. So Dallas has closed the gap on Indy but I was wondering, is there any way to predict what that 30% extra DVOA that New England has over them, means in repeated head-to-heads against those two teams?
    Dallas and Indy each had a lead on New England at one point but blew the lead. Hypothetical situation: New England plays Indy/Dallas tens times in a row, what is the percentage that either one of those teams wins given 10 chances? 1 in 10?
    Also, if New England loses to tomorrow, how badly would New England have to play to bring such a huge DVOA do to the Indy/Dallas level at this point?

    :: Cosmos — 11/13/2007 @ 5:14 pm



  15. #5:

    Wow, that’s gotta hurt.

    :: zip — 11/13/2007 @ 5:15 pm



  16. Not having seen a Detroit game this year, I can only ask others:

    Is their special teams deficiency a result of poor coverage or poor returns or both?

    One thing I always find misleading about special teams is the issue of return yardage — in terms of defending against returns, there can be an extremely fine line between giving up a 30 yard return and giving up a 90 yard return — just one missed tackle. Accordingly, two missed tackles can really blow the yardage given up statistic out of the water. That’s why Bethel Johnson, for example, who had a few great runbacks and otherwise sucked, (at least in my memory) had good overall numbers. Someone (coincidentally on the Colts) missed one tackle, and boom, 100 yard return. Contrast that with the average running back or wide receiver, where the defense misses one tackle, it rarely results in 100 yard plays.

    :: JJcruiser — 11/13/2007 @ 5:16 pm



  17. It’s really a shame that the Colts’ (or any other team in their position) opportunity for an all-time great season is being destroyed by the whole team getting injured.

    :: throughthelookingglass — 11/13/2007 @ 5:18 pm



  18. #31 special teams, #32 weighted. I think Bobman called that.

    :: doktarr — 11/13/2007 @ 5:18 pm



  19. re: 17

    agreed. It’d be a shame if it happened to the Pats as well. If it’s not going to happen, it should over another team’s superb play/gameplan. not injuries.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:19 pm



  20. 16 - The concept of covering a kick or punt is completely alien to the Detroit Lions. That sound you hear is the Lions falling back to earth.

    :: Todd M. — 11/13/2007 @ 5:22 pm



  21. I’m surprised to see PHI at #5 in offense. McNabb has looked horrible in the games I’ve watched. Westbrook, of course, has looked like a freaking superstar. Have I just had bad luck in catching PHI on off-days?

    :: Brooklyn Bengal — 11/13/2007 @ 5:23 pm



  22. Wow. Indy is still first in run blocking and 4th in pass protection.
    Take a picture, it will last longer.

    :: Herm? — 11/13/2007 @ 5:24 pm



  23. #14 - Think sample size is the problem there. IIANM DVOA doesn’t translate directly to points. We don’t know if a 10% gap between NYG and ARI is the same as a 10% gap between Indy and Pitt or if its 1/3 as big as the gap between NE and Pitt. The relationship could be non-linear and it could be based on multiple variables more than just the gap (distance from 0%, variance, component DVOA, etc). Even if you set up a chart and brute forced the closest match, variance and small sample size would likely invalidate it.
    #17 - Injuries are part of football. Maybe the 2004 Patriots would have been an all time team if they weren’t hit by injuries much worse than the current Colts. Maybe Cleveland would have been a playoff contender last year if not for injuries.

    :: Jake — 11/13/2007 @ 5:30 pm



  24. Ranked so high with Charles Johnson?

    He’s single handedly turned the O-Line into a nightmare.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:31 pm



  25. it’s mind-boggling to me that the Bears are ranked worse than Miami or Atlanta….

    :: dbt — 11/13/2007 @ 5:32 pm



  26. Wow, the Bears hold a team under 200 yards, 3/15 on 3rd downs, and 2.6 yards per pass attempt, and their defensive DVOA gets worse (or, at least their ranking does). Sucks when the computer actually recognizes that you faced Josh McCown.

    :: TomC — 11/13/2007 @ 5:32 pm



  27. Haven’t you heard that Bill Simmons is tired of hearing about the Colts’ injuries?

    :: Matt — 11/13/2007 @ 5:33 pm



  28. 21:

    Part of your perspective might be skewed by the fact that McNabb has stunk up the joint in every nationally televised game this season. In the non-Sun/Mon night games, he’s looked pretty good.

    Of course, if you lived in Philly, McNabb could walk on water and you’d still boo him :)

    :: Toxikfetus — 11/13/2007 @ 5:33 pm



  29. “Maybe the 2004 Patriots would have been an all time team if they weren’t hit by injuries much worse than the current Colts.”

    Can we just avoid comparing injuries please? There’s no way to do it reasonably, so let’s just stop it. Or continue the one on extra points about it.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:33 pm



  30. Can we assume that the increase in NE’s ratings during this bye week are a result of opponent adjustments?

    This question makes me wonder how those adjustments are applied.

    1. Does NE get credit for last week’s Bolts and Colts or do they include that “horrible in every way” game, too? Seems like including the current week would require some circular calculation suitable only for US tax code. That one game seems to have dramatically lowered both Indy and SD ratings.

    2. Does opponent adjustment get deeper than just overall DVOA? For instance, do we use Offensive DVOA for the Defensive adjustment, etc? Better yet, do individual DPAR ratings come into play such that the injuries to Marvin Harrison and the others reduce the “expected” results for Indy’s offense?

    BTW - DVOA and the ensuing discussions have become a “never miss” Tuesday read. Thanks for the effort it takes.

    :: Thinker — 11/13/2007 @ 5:36 pm



  31. it’s mind-boggling to me that the Bears are ranked worse than Miami or Atlanta….

    Yeah, it boggles my mind (and breaks my heart) as well, but when you’re 3 minutes away from losing to Oakland, it’s hard to argue that you should be any higher.

    :: TomC — 11/13/2007 @ 5:36 pm



  32. 2: Well, there defense did snag six picks against Peyton Manning and their special teams did return two kicks for touchdowns on Sunday.

    :: Richard — 11/13/2007 @ 5:37 pm



  33. The Lions are who we thought they were!

    A couple of things I notice. If the top 12 teams, the Giants have the hardest remaining schedule at #10, otherwise most have it pretty easy. Does this mean that if you qualify for the playoffs as of week 10 then you are probably in?

    Also, who has the Steelers played? It looks like their past schedule is of teams that have no offense or no defense or both or Seattle.

    :: Otis Taylor 89 — 11/13/2007 @ 5:37 pm



  34. What does it mean that Pittsburgh was involved in 3 of the worst 5 losses of the season, twice as victor, and once as vanquished?

    :: B — 11/13/2007 @ 5:38 pm



  35. It’s clear that for the sake of field position, a squibb away from Hester is sub optimal. But does Hester’s touchdown threat make up for that. That is to ask, What are the chances of the Bears scoring on a drive started by a kick to Hester versus a squibb away from him?

    :: David Mazzotta — 11/13/2007 @ 5:38 pm



  36. That’s a pretty big gap between the Cowboys and Packers, but I think I like the Packers chances in a couple weeks. Excellent corner play seems to be the key to matching up with the Cowboys, although Whitten will certainly have an opportunity for a big game. I think the Packers will have to compensate less than other teams in regards to Owens and the other wide-outs, which perhaps means the safeties can pay more attention to Whitten. On the other side, I think the Packers’ receiving corps matches up pretty well with the Cowboys secondary.

    Oh, and there is no way that there are 17 worse offenses than the Vikings’.

    :: Will Allen — 11/13/2007 @ 5:39 pm



  37. 36: Those 17 offenses don’t have Adrian Peterson. Or Steve Hutchinson. There probably aren’t 17 worse pass offenses, though.

    :: B — 11/13/2007 @ 5:43 pm



  38. This week’s Frankenstein inquiry; if you sewed together the rosters of the Niners and Raiders, how many victories would accrue to the Bay Area?

    :: Will Allen — 11/13/2007 @ 5:43 pm



  39. Niners/Raiders Hybrid

    QB: Alex Smith
    RB: Frank Gore
    WR: Jackson ??
    WR: Curry ??
    WR: Battle ??
    TE: Vernon Davis

    The defense would probably be pretty good though. ;)

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:46 pm



  40. My favorite this week is the rank difference between Detroit (#22) and Miami (#26)
    I also like 0-9 Miami ranked above 6 teams, two of which are 4-5.

    :: Herm? — 11/13/2007 @ 5:47 pm



  41. 38: According to my calculations, if you combined SF and Oakland’s rosters, they would still be he worst team in the league.

    :: B — 11/13/2007 @ 5:47 pm



  42. #36 Will, I think we can both agree that San Francisco is worse. God, it’s tough being a Niners fan.

    :: Paul (London,UK) — 11/13/2007 @ 5:48 pm



  43. #29 - Maybe we should just stop with the constant mentioning of injuries period. The colts aren’t the first team to be riddled with injuries and they won’t be the last. I think the more notable fact is how relatively injury free they have been over the past several years.

    :: bsr — 11/13/2007 @ 5:49 pm



  44. Re 36:

    Owens may be more likely to get pass inference calls then other receivers. Really, I doubt there is a play were a packer DB doesn’t commit interference, illegal contact or holding.

    :: Tom — 11/13/2007 @ 5:50 pm



  45. Yeah, B, the offensive line is actually significantly better than average, I think, but the NFL has become so pass dependent that having an above average line and a HOF quality running back cannot balance out personnel at qb and receiver which do not belong on an NFL roster.

    Actually, I think the qb position becomes increasingly important as passing becomes more important. Yes, I know such a statement seems pointlessly obvious, but given the huge disparity between the best qb play, and even the average qb play, to say nothing of the worst, it seems to me that parity may be receding.

    :: Will Allen — 11/13/2007 @ 5:53 pm



  46. Oh, and there is no way that there are 17 worse offenses than the Vikings’.

    That picture would probably look different if they adjusted for Adrian Peterson’s ligaments.

    :: David — 11/13/2007 @ 5:53 pm



  47. Niners/Raiders Hybrid

    QB: Alex Smith
    RB: Frank Gore
    FB: Justin Griffith
    WR: Jackson ??
    WR: Curry ??
    WR: Battle ??
    TE: Vernon Davis

    LT: Adam Snider
    LG: Larry Allen
    C: Jake Newberry
    RG: David Baas
    RT: Joe Staley

    –

    Defense

    3-4

    LE - D. Burgess
    NT - Sopaga (because I like him.)
    RE - Bryant Young

    OLB - Haralson
    ILB - Derrick Smith
    ILB - K. Morrison
    OLB - T. Howard

    CB - Nate Clements
    CB - Nnamdi Asomugha
    CB - Walt Harris

    SS - M. Huff
    FS - S. Schweigert

    I don’t know even if I agree with this team. Just.. wow. I hate both of these teams so much.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:54 pm



  48. Aaron, as always, thanks for the stats and insight.
    But I think you miss a point on the Hester analysis. The difference in average field position does not take into consideration the variance. If you kick to the guy, you average the 31.7 yardline, but that is probably a lot of 20 yardline stops mixed with some returns that are deep into enemy territory or scores. And the vast majority of squib kicks are probably close to the 36 yardline average. Add to that an inept offense, and the handful of long returns he breaks might hurt more than the handful of times the Bears actually gain 30 yards and kick a field goal.
    Wouldn’t a better way of looking at it be the average points the Bears score on the drives folling squibs v. the average on drives following Hester returns?

    :: Drew — 11/13/2007 @ 5:57 pm



  49. Maybe I should have taken Trent Dilfer. Or Josh McCown. Wow. That’s pretty sad.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 5:59 pm



  50. Surprising how much variance the Steelers have, especially comsidering their cupcake past schedule. After all, their 2 losses are by small margins, away, and against average-ish, not entirely horrible teams.

    :: slo-mo-joe — 11/13/2007 @ 6:00 pm



  51. #29 - “Can we just avoid comparing injuries please? There’s no way to do it reasonably, so let’s just stop it. Or continue the one on extra points about it.”
    Only if people will stop the excuses for the Colts because of injuries. Everyone gets injuries. If there’s no way to compare injuries reasonably, then its not reasonable to make the implied comparison between Indy and the normal number of injuries.

    :: Jake — 11/13/2007 @ 6:01 pm



  52. re:51

    I think it’s reasonable to notice a team losing half their starters in a two week span, but if it stops the meaningless Pats/Colts injury comparisons, then whatever.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:04 pm



  53. Would anyone make different picks on my Niners/Raiders hybrid.

    I’m surprised how many Niners I took. That can’t be right can it?

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:05 pm



  54. Teams have been kicking away crom Josh Cribbs for a few weeks now as well. After he burns them once for a long return, they kick away from him.

    His return TD this week was meant to be a short kick. It travelled just a bit too far.

    :: Riceloft — 11/13/2007 @ 6:10 pm



  55. RE:54

    Shouldn’t we have a special Cribbs rating for when a short kick goes to far and is actually returned? ;)

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:13 pm



  56. The good news for the Colts - and they need some - is that they have gotten their injuries at the right time (if there is such a thing). With 7 wins (including wins visiting each of their divisions teams), they are almost certain to make the playoffs.

    With 7 weeks still to go, they have an excellent chance of getting their people back before playoff time.

    :: JMH — 11/13/2007 @ 6:15 pm



  57. There was a short kick against the Patriots this year that was returned for a TD by one of the up men. It takes a special kind of skill to squib-kick and still give up the TD.

    :: B — 11/13/2007 @ 6:15 pm



  58. re: 49
    or Joe Montana. Or Jim Plunkett.

    :: RickD — 11/13/2007 @ 6:15 pm



  59. Nathan,
    I think you’ve got to move Burgess to OLB in place of Haralson and put Marques Douglas at DE.

    :: rk — 11/13/2007 @ 6:15 pm



  60. 56: I think we need more information on the severity of the injuries, specifically the ones to Clark and Freeney. I think those guys are the key to the Colts going anywhere in the playoffs.

    :: B — 11/13/2007 @ 6:17 pm



  61. David Mazzotta #35:

    That is to ask, What are the chances of the Bears scoring on a drive started by a kick to Hester versus a squibb away from him?

    The Bears have received 46 kickoffs and Hester returned one for a touchdown this year. I don’t know how many drives after the other team scored have resulted in Bears scores.

    :: Andrew — 11/13/2007 @ 6:19 pm



  62. RE:59

    Much better idea! Agree with your changes.

    Any others?

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:20 pm



  63. #53

    I honestly think I’d put Dilfer as the QB for the “all Bay Area team”. Actually I’d probably just put Russell at QB and see what he can do. Anyone but Alex Smith.

    I’d also take D-Jack out of the lineup. He looks completely finished, although there aren’t much better options at receiver.

    How about the coach? I’d probably give the nod to Kiffin, the Niners have completely regressed under Nolan.

    :: Joe in Seattle — 11/13/2007 @ 6:25 pm



  64. San Francisco is clearly ranked too low because they are dealing with lots of adversity. My current Madden08 season is way better than this. With injurys and penaltys and deaths turnd off Alex Smith has a paser rating of 72.8, and Frank Gore is averaging 91.9 yards per game. Venon Davis has 4 TDs thru 9 games and we are 6-2-1… aslo Nate Clemmens had 4 interceptions aganst Eli Manning and returned them all for scores. Eat that!

    :: chuck — 11/13/2007 @ 6:26 pm



  65. What’s funny about Detroit’s bad special teams is that they actually block kicks pretty well. (I think that’s partly covered by opponent field goal efficiency in the w/HIDDEN column.) So the actual effects could be even worse.

    kevin, it’s like gouging out your eyes, but with sharper spoons. The worst part is actually kickoffs. My guess is that it’s partly Hanson’s aging leg and partly bad coverage. The aging leg wouldn’t be so bad if Hanson hadn’t also missed an XP and a FG inside 30 this year; in his defense, that’s about all he’s missed, so Detroit’s FG/XP is just about average.

    The Lions aren’t pinning people inside the 20 (30th overall, ahead of Jax and Mia), which may be from all the three-and-outs inside their own territory.

    We don’t chart special-teams plays, although I wonder if there might be something we could note about them. (I’ve charted all the Lions games so far, but only have the last 4-5 on DVR. Maybe I need a bigger hard drive.)

    I did pick Alex Smith for this LL team. Now if Shaun Alexander can only get healthy …

    :: zlionsfan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:26 pm



  66. 33, 34 –

    It means that the Steelers continue to (almost) lead the league in variance; but, as 50 points out, that surprises me on an intuitive level because both Steeler losses have been pretty close and on the road and came against the current No. 18 and No. 19 teams. Guess my intuition is wrong.

    As for whom the Steelers have played and beaten, well, who has anybody played and beaten? The Pats have obviously handled all comers, including Indy and Dallas and SD. The AFC South teams have some quality wins against each other. The NFC East teams can say the same, and like the Cowboys (twice) the Packers have beaten the Giants (once) — but DVOA shows that people putting Big Blue at the top of their “power rankings” were suffering from pretty low wattage power. The Packers also handled SD and PHI at Lambeau.

    Meanwhile, the Steelers have yet to face any great teams, to be sure; but their past schedule rank is dragged down by SF, and they have beaten pretty soundly the teams currently at Nos. 9, 12, 16, 17, and 20.

    :: Matt — 11/13/2007 @ 6:28 pm



  67. RE:63

    I’d go Kiffen. Obviously we have to have the Raiders D coordinator.

    I’d want to keep Tom Rathman as RB coach though.

    QB, Russel would be fine. Dilfer as well. You can’t really go right with the options available.

    I didn’t want to keep Jackson, but who else is there? ;)

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:37 pm



  68. Given the Hester/squib discussion, you might want to read TMQ this week (since it looks like no link this week). He has a long section on a high school team that hasn’t punted since 2005 (when the coach read the “teams punt too much” study). They’ve even gone for it on fourth down from their own six.

    :: PatsFan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:39 pm



  69. #67

    Agreed on Jackson, there really isn’t a better option. Can we convert Alex Smith to WR? He seems athletic enough (even with his baby hands).

    Actually Kiffin is only 32, he could have some game in him.

    :: Joe in Seattle — 11/13/2007 @ 6:40 pm



  70. you forgot the most important element of this team…. andy lee. shane lechler can hold for seabass’s 58-yard FGs.. and we’ll let nedney do the onside kick at the onset of the 2nd half..

    :: chuck — 11/13/2007 @ 6:40 pm



  71. I still have the same questions about variance too, which puzzles me every week. Are the Steelers so high up the chart in variance because they have had many dominant performances but then came crashing back to earth in their two losses?

    Again, intuitively speaking — which is a euphemism for my own ignorance — it seems that a team like Jacksonville or Philadelphia “varies” more from week to week, either blowing people out (PHI over DET) or getting blown up (DAL over PHI); or else losing by bigger margins and/or to worse teams (JAC at NO, IND at JAC). Yet the Eagles are 8th and Jacksonville 23rd in terms of variance.

    :: Matt — 11/13/2007 @ 6:41 pm



  72. On Madden, I always made Andy Lee punter and Kicker. It was a good use of a roster spot, but since we have Seabass, might as well take him.

    We could always use Michael Robinson at wideout ;)

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:43 pm



  73. The punting unit would totally rock on this team. Lee is awesome and so is Lechler.

    ROBINSON AND BATTLE FOR QB!!!

    :: Joe in Seattle — 11/13/2007 @ 6:45 pm



  74. 45: Will, there are 10 teams that can’t do either. Even more shocking, there are 8 teams with a worse pass DVOA than the Vikings. I think the Vikings are getting some passing benefit from having a good running game, because objectively, there’s no way their passing game is better than any team outside of Miami or the SF Bay area.

    :: B — 11/13/2007 @ 6:53 pm



  75. Why didn’t the Niners keep Rasheed Marshall too, and deploy Smith, Robinson, Battle, and Marshall in a classic single wing?

    How much worse could that have been for them?

    :: Matt — 11/13/2007 @ 6:54 pm



  76. Freeney may be out for good:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3108696

    It seemed a little fast how they jumped on Rice. Too bad.

    :: Slo-mo-joe — 11/13/2007 @ 6:56 pm



  77. Eric Crouch is surely looking for work…

    We could line up an entire field of QB hybrids with an O-Line.

    They could run Basketball like plays in the backfield as randomly several of them start rushing out. Who will get the ball? who has the ball? Whose throwing the ball?

    Will they run with the ball?

    And a QB/Punter as well to completely confuse if we go for it on 4th, which we most often will.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 6:58 pm



  78. 77 - If you need a QB slash punter slash WR hybrid, the original Slash looked to be in easonably good shape during his “Deal or No Deal” appearance.

    :: Matt — 11/13/2007 @ 7:00 pm



  79. Rice, Dungy, Freeney out, it all makes sense. This is one of those moves that’s so obvious, it almost never happens.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:00 pm



  80. Last week I made the comparison between “conventional wisdom” and DVOA in regards to the Dallas-NY game, and I think DVOA won that match up. That was good to see (from more than one viewpoint).

    Also, it’s good to see Miami with 3 expected wins. I’d say they’re in the early running for surprise team of the year next year, especially with Ronnie Brown coming back. Yes, it’s way too early in the season for that.

    :: Temo — 11/13/2007 @ 7:01 pm



  81. Roscoe Parrish leads the league in punt return average. He also has just 2 fair catches. Does he get a negative adjustment because of how Ralph Wilson Stadium’s swirling winds affect punters? Or is it just his lack of publicity?

    :: McGaytrain — 11/13/2007 @ 7:02 pm



  82. Is the ‘variance’ stat adjusted for opponent? In other words, if my team plays NE then NYJ then IND then SF, is the variance going to be astronomical just because of the schedule?

    :: Brian — 11/13/2007 @ 7:03 pm



  83. Re #30:

    Can we assume that the increase in NE’s ratings during this bye week are a result of opponent adjustments?

    Yes.

    Does opponent adjustment get deeper than just overall DVOA? For instance, do we use Offensive DVOA for the Defensive adjustment, etc? Better yet, do individual DPAR ratings come into play such that the injuries to Marvin Harrison and the others reduce the “expected� results for Indy’s offense?

    It’s offense vs. defense and vice versa. Getting down to individual players would be beyond the system; how would you quantify lost offensive linemen? Also, the play-by-play doesn’t identify which players are in the game, and charters can’t pull it off the telecast, so no such adjustments could be made mid-game. We have to live with the occasional Charlie Frye start or game full of backups skewing the numbers a bit, but it’s not too bad over 16 games. And as you can see from the Hester discussion, Aaron will look at ways to adjust if circumstances seem to warrant it, although it often turns out that those proposed adjustments don’t make things more accurate.

    :: Jerry — 11/13/2007 @ 7:03 pm



  84. re: 76 Wow.

    That’s really too bad about Freeney. In my mind, that’s the straw that breaks the back of the Colts’ playoff hopes. Simeon Rice just is not at Freeney’s level any more.

    Now I’m wondering if they’ll be able to stay ahead of the Titans and Jags.

    *shakes head, snaps out of it*

    Wait - they still have Manning, Addai, and Wayne. They’re still dangerous.

    I expect they’ll wax the Chiefs next week.

    (Am I tryiing a reverse jinx or a double-reverse jinx? I cannot tell.)

    :: RickD — 11/13/2007 @ 7:05 pm



  85. #52 Hear! Hear! As a Colt fan, I personally feel that injuries have killed our season (which means SB chances) but that is not unique by a long stretch and certainly not worth using as excuses. Having it all come apart in 2 weeks is newsworthy–since teammates and staff can work a new guy or two into their plans every week, but 6 new guys in one week, not so much. So for a week or two it might be a legit excuse, but it “is what it is” and everybody has to deal with it eventually. Time to move on. So no more injury excuses, please, and let us just gnash our teeth in private.

    Maybe they get healthy or the newbies improve by week 17, but probably not enough to make a difference. Worst case scenario is they recover enough to win the division, beat other AFC teams in the playoffs, and stand punch drunk at midfield while the Pats dismantle them in the AFCCG. Some Pats fans would gloat, most would just be embarrassed, and casual fans would say “gee, why do they suck so much?” [joke] And for the record, BB WILL run up the score and will NEVER be able to defend putting in Brady at DB so he could get the record 12th pick against Manning. Quoth TB after the game “My arms were tired after throwing 6 TDS each both lefty and righty, but I needed to get my legs a little workout, so playing corner seemed like the right move for the team’s sake. Nothing against Peyton, but we’re just trying to win a football game here.” [/joke]

    #18 Doktarr, I actually posited somewhere in the 28-30 range, IIRC, but truly feel that even 32 would be too high. Thanks for remembering.

    To all FO regulars whose teams feature good coverage units, what the hell does it take? 1 or 2 good gunners who command more than league minimum? I assume a large part of Indy’s precipitous decline was the same malaise that affected the rest of the team–new guys doing new things with no game experience and only a couple practices under their belts–and that in following weeks, when Inanimate Carbon Rod has covered more than just two kickoffs in his lifetime, he’ll actually improve to merely bad, up several steps from sucktacular. He aspires to ordinary.

    Will Allen, Nathan, and others, keep positing the hybrid Frankenteams–it’s fun. And I could use some fun about now. I was surprised how good the NFCN hybrid team looked on paper last week.

    :: Bobman — 11/13/2007 @ 7:06 pm



  86. Brian- No, because theoretically, if you lose by 14 to NE, win by 10 against NYJ, lose by 10 to Indy, and then win by 14 against San Fran then your variance should go lower. IE, you should be playing very poorly against the good teams and very well against the bad teams. If instead you played the good teams close (and got a high VOA) and then got blown out by the bad teams (and got a low VOA) then your DVOA would be jumping all over the place.

    :: Temo — 11/13/2007 @ 7:07 pm



  87. #77

    With Curry, Robinson and Battle we have a lot of options for a hybrid type QB.

    This offense could be a lot of fun. I’d probably just line Vernon Davis up at WR and have Curry/Battle toss him the ball and let Davis run. It allows Davis to use his freakish athletic skills and it’s a simple pass that even he can’t drop.

    Actually, just getting McCown and Smith off the field makes this offense worlds better.

    :: Joe in Seattle — 11/13/2007 @ 7:07 pm



  88. I wonder if we could make a better team than the Niners or Raiders from free agents….

    QB: Doug Johnson
    Backup: Rob Johnson

    (Just because.)

    RB: Kevan Barlow
    Backup: Shaud Williams

    FB: Cory Schlesinger

    WR: Mike Williams
    WR: Antonio Bryant
    WR: David Boston

    TE: Ernie Conwell
    TE: Jermaine Wiggins

    LT: Zach Wiegert
    LG: Toniu Fonoti
    C: Cory Raymer
    RG: Marco Rivera
    RT: Adam Meadows

    Kicker: Mike Vanderjagt
    Punter: Dirk Johnson

    And on to the Defense. Could we score on anyone?

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:11 pm



  89. 91. Would this be the truly “replacement level” team? And also, can we use people who are in prison on the defense?

    :: Temo — 11/13/2007 @ 7:15 pm



  90. If the Colts didn’t pick up Simeon Rice or the Jags didn’t pick up Grady Jackson we could put together a halfway respectable defensive line.

    Is Chad Brown still out there? Mike Rumph? Tony Parrish?

    :: Joe in Seattle — 11/13/2007 @ 7:15 pm



  91. 93. Same with Tank being picked up by the Cowboys.

    :: Temo — 11/13/2007 @ 7:16 pm



  92. 4-3

    DE: Grant Wistrom
    DT: Dan Wilkinson
    DT: Johnathan Sullivan
    DE: Kenard Lang

    OLB: Ed Hartwell
    ILB: Al Wilson
    OLB: T.J. Slaughter

    CB: Ahmad Carroll
    CB: Lenny Walls
    CB: Derrick Strait

    SS: Donovin Darius
    FS: Tony Parrish

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:18 pm



  93. I thought about Chad Brown. Maybe replace T.J. Slaughter.

    I couldn’t stand putting Rumph on the team.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:19 pm



  94. Dline isn’t our problem. CBs are.

    Can we immediately make some trades here? ;)

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:20 pm



  95. Oh, probably want to switch Tony Parrish and Darius around.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:21 pm



  96. Actually, Corey Dillon at RB.

    :: Nathan — 11/13/2007 @ 7:27 pm



  97. Bobby Taylor for CB. That’s all I’ve got. This defense is going to surrender 40 points a game.

    :: Joe in Seattle — 11/13/2007 @ 7:28 pm



  98. Backups

    QB: Rohan Davey or Aaron Brooks
    RB: Wali Lundy or Stephen Davis
    WR: Corey Bradford, Doug Gabriel, or Charles Rogers.
    TE: Courtney Anderson
    O-Line: Chukky Okobi, Jeno James, Rex Tucker, Kenyatta Walker

    D-Line: Jason Fisk, Willie Whitehead, Seth Payne
    Linebackers: Rocky Calmus, Ronald McKinnon, D.D. L