Did I really hear "Computers don't take into account but humans do?"

Oops....."it" being "strength of schedule".

Did you really mean to say gander?

judging by the results of the "Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week" for guests (2-8-1), perhaps Texas Tech is a good bet, no?

Besides wondering why there are only morning QBs, why aren't there any bloggers for other positions. Maybe I'll start a blog called "Wednesday afternoon defensive tackle".

Is there any rule against Bob Stoops from coaching up Little Bro during the season?

What, no Duke-Notre Dame predictions?

:-)

Again with the Clemson collapses at the end of the season. That was just last year. Prior to that, Clemson has started slow and finished strong, with the one random choke (see Duke, 2004). In 2005 Clemson started 2-3, but was 5-1 in the second half if I remember correctly. I'm still worried about BC and USC, but Clemson usually does well against quality competition.

Not good for Oregon- Dixon re-injured his knee and is done for the evening. They're now relying on Brady Leaf.

Wow.

Leaf is terrible. Must run in the family.

12: I believe that gene is called the interceptus homolog

Wow. That should have been a pick-six for Arizona.

Leaf is really, really bad. If Dixon happens to be out for the season, Oregon's season may be over.

Leaf just goes into instant panic when any rush comes at him. Unless the Oregon line can give him more time in the 2nd half, I really see no way they can come back.

If Oregon loses*, there may be no BCS controversy- well, some people will seek to create a controversy no matter what- it'll be LSU (if they win out) vs the Big 12 champ. Neither West Virginia nor Ohio State will have reasonable arguments against LSU or (likely) OU.

12- Ryan Leaf was a terrific college QB.

*The game isn't over, and I'm not ruling out a Ducks comeback.

What was the score when Dixon went down?

17 - 8-7, Oregon (they made it 11-7 one play later).

Technically two plays later -- Leaf had a 4 yard completion before the FG. You can see the pbp here

After winning with Georgia after a two game skid last week I'm 8 - 3. Texas Tech over OU looks oddly tantalizing, but my official pick is Michigan over Ohio State.

I've had a major change of heart- if Hawaii goes undefeated, I want them in a BCS bowl- to see if they're really good, or not. With ten spots now open in BCS bowls, it's not like a BCS Conference school would be getting robbed by being left out.

74 plays for Oregon, 55 for Arizona so far. That's a lot of plays for Arizona's defense, and would likely be the reason any Oregon comeback could even be possible at this stage.

And then Arizona made it 11-10 one drive later.

Man, this game is HIDEOUS. I have never seen so many "close but no cigar" passes in one game. It seems like every single drive goes like this: pass to wide open WR that is dropped, pass to wide open WR that is overthrown, pass to wide open WR that is underthrown, punt. What do the defenders and the football have in common? Apparently, neither is coming within 5 yards of the wide receivers (and even if they do, they just bounce off, anyway).

Re: 20

After Boise State last year, an undefeated Hawaii seems very likely to get a BCS bid. It's not so much that last year's Fiesta Bowl is likely to happen all over again this year, but that whoever takes an undefeated Hawaii could market things in that direction effectively. The mid-major underdog is now a fresh possibility in consumers' minds, and it could be worth money from advertisers.

If there is a flaw with the spread option attack in college football, it's that you need at least 2 mobile QBs, because one is almost definitely going to get dinged up. Florida already lost a game this year because Tebow couldn't run because of his shoulder, now it looks like Oregon may lose one because of Dixon's knee.

Unless you have Vince Young. Because his team can't just win without him.

91 offensive plays for Oregon so far.

I would hate to see Hawaii in a BCS bowl, their offense got completely shut down by an average Alabama team last season. If they completely dismantle Boise State or Washington I will change my story

Yeah, those 3-yard passes are going to get them downfield in no time.

Maybe the Big 12 championship game loser could play Hawaii in a bowl game. I think that'd be a pretty interesting matchup, personally.

Allow me to amend the sequence listed in post #22. The average drive in the second half has been as follows: pass to wide-open WR that is dropped, pass to wide-open WR that is overthrown, pass to wide-open DB that is dropped, punt.

That's the 5th second-ranked team to fall in 7 weeks. Not bad. If we're lucky, Kansas or Missouri will somehow move to that slot for the next weekend. :)

Hey, if LSU happens to lose, could we end up with 3 Big 12 teams ranked 1,2,3?

#28

All signs have pointed towards Georgia playing Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl-if both teams win out (even if Georgia does not make the SEC championship game).

Arizona apparently loves to play terrible football until a highly ranked team comes into its house late in the season.

Heisman has to go to Tebow, and I cannot stand the dude. But either he or McFadden deserve it and right now I am going with Tebow.

I don't think that Arizona played that amazing football. Their offense scored 20 points total against an average defense, and only 3 the entire second half. They got one lucky punt return on a short field (and a huge block in the back at the beginning) and an int return on a really bad throw by Leaf (one of many, many, many). If Oregon can mount any kind of drive in the second half, any kind of offense, they're winning this game.

They can't without some threat to throw.

Just crushed me. With one play, Dixon's Heisman hopes and the Ducks Rose Bowl hopes were erased.

I agree that Tebow deserves the Heisman. To put things into perspective... Tebow has 43 TDs so far this season. That breaks the single-season SEC record of 42 TDs, set by Danny Weurffel in his Heisman season. And Tebow has at least three games left to play. He's rushed for more TDs than Herschel Walker ever had in any one season (in fact, he's already tied the SEC rushing TD record by any player at any position). He's rushed and passed for at least one TD each in every game this season (giving him the longest streak in the nation of consecutive games with a rushing TD). He's on pace to break the SEC record for total yards and the NCAA record for rushing TDs by a QB. In Vince Young's near-Heisman season, he had 4086 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 INTs. In Troy Smith's slam-dunk Heisman season, he had 2746 yards, 31 TDs, and 6 INTs. Tebow so far has 3250/43/5, and he's on pace for 3995/56/6. He's pretty much blowing every other Heisman-winning QB in the history of football out of the water in terms of production, and he's doing it against the consensus best conference in the nation. Yeah, Florida had 3 losses, but don't blame that on Tebow- according to FEI, Florida is 1st in the nation in offense (by a significant margin), but only 82nd in defense. He's been arguably one of the top 5 passers in the nation (2nd in the nation in passing efficiency), and he's been arguably one of the top 5 rushers in the nation, as well (yes, even including RBs). How on earth do you justify NOT giving it to Tebow?

Ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.

Not only is this probably the first Pac 10 conference game on a Thursday night in at least 2 years, in what is *always* Big East or C-USA territory, but Oregon loses Dixon *and* Stewart to injury? You have GOT to be kidding me.

Amazing how the Pac 10 team lost just the way the Big 12 wanted them to.

#34: Because he's a sophomore, that's why.

You just watch, that'll be the reason he doesn't win it. It's silly, but the upperclassmen bias is there.

Re #33: I don’t think that Arizona played that amazing football. Their offense scored 20 points total against an average defense, and only 3 the entire second half. They got one lucky punt return on a short field (and a huge block in the back at the beginning) and an int return on a really bad throw by Leaf (one of many, many, many). If Oregon can mount any kind of drive in the second half, any kind of offense, they’re winning this game.

I thought that initial block on the punt return was a block in the back, too... but on the replay, it was pretty clear to me that the Arizona player blocked from the side with his head and arms around the front of the Oregon player's shoulder pads. Clean block, good no-call.

Also, you can't talk about how Arizona lucked out without talking about how Oregon lucked out, too. Their defense was horrible, and if Arizona's WRs didn't have such awful hands, that game would have gotten hideous in a hurry.

1997 Rose Bowl Rematch in the BCS CG Checklist:
1. tOSU win out (aUM)
2. Arizona State win out (vUSC, vArizona)
3. LSU loss (SEC CG best)
4. Oregon loss
5. Kansas loss
6. Oklahoma loss
7. Mizzou loss
8. West Virginia loss

Getting all of 5, 6, and 7 to happen may seem like a tall order, but the rematch of that classic Rose Bowl mandates it.

oh and I don't like Tebow for petty reasons. I chanted his name at the 2005 Florida-Alabama game that he was visiting...and I felt dirty doing it.

That was a sloppy game. And while the Ducks were in it until that late INT, it was pretty clear they were dying a slow death because Dixon wasn't in. I missed him so much it hurt me inside. And if Stewart isn't 100% for the next game, things could be heading even further south. Oh what could have been this season. If only they made Robo-players for every position. Injuries have finally killed this team.

If any sophomore season can beat the upperclassman bias, it would be Tebow's. But as much as it vexes me to admit this, I have to agree with DolFan - I'll believe that the voters can pick a sophomore when I actually see it.

I'm thinking Chase Daniel would be the favourite at this point, IF Missouri wins out - he'll presumably still have competitive stats, but more importantly he'll have the highly coveted 'star of a title contender' tag... and he's a junior. Of course, he's pretty low-profile at the moment, but winning will solve that.

Someone earlier nailed it. With the loss to Oregon, the national championship game is going to be LSU v. the Big 12 champion. If LSU happens to lose, then it will be the Big 12 champion v. either West Virginia or Ohio State. If both of those teams win it, there could be a BCS controversy in that sense, but that's it.

Oddly enough, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri all control their own destiny. When can you ever say that, with three weeks remaining in the season, that four teams controlled their own destiny in the national championship race? That must be a first.

It also must feel good for OU fans. For one of their own -- Mike Stoops -- to go out and save his job and at the same time put OU back in the driver's seat by knocking off a team that beat the Sooners last year on some screwjob calls by the referees. That must be pretty sweet.

And the Big 12 deserves a lot of credit. A Big 12 team is now essentially guaranteed to play for the national championship, and this will mark the fourth time in five years -- and the fifth time in seven years -- that the Big 12 will get a team in the national championship game. That's impressive stuff.

Not so impressive though, is their 1-3 record in those games. Perhaps they make it 2-3 this year.

Why did Brady Leaf look so unprepared in that game? Is it just a matter of royally sucking? Bad coaching?

You have a lanky running QB who sprained his knee last week. You'd think they'd prepare his backup with more of a gameplan than 4 yard passes (many of which were inaccurate) and a general deer-in-the-headlights mentality. Leaf looked like he wanted nothing more than the game to finally end - in the second quarter.

My understanding is that the BCS Championship game is worth more money than the other BCS games and that money gets at least partially distributed to the other teams in the Big-12 conference.

I don't think it is enough money to provide an incentive for Arizona to try to lose, but it probably is enough incentive for the teams (or at least their adminstrators) that aren't in a position to win the conference to be cheering against Arizona.

Re: #44

It would have been great for the Pac 10 for Oregon to be in the NC game, because then the ASU/USC winner, assuming they also won their rivalry games, would almost undoubtedly have replaced Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

Getting two teams into the BCS benefits every team in the conference, financially.

A 2nd team in a BCS bowl nets the conference an extra 4.5 million to distribute.

#42: Why is it good for the entire Big 12 to send a school to the championship game? How does, say, Kansas playing in the championship game benefit Nebraska?

Money, money, money.

Not to mention national respect. I'm tired of hearing how weak the Big 12 is.

Russell, Oklahoma may have the "worst" loss among the once-beatens, but they also have the "best" win (Missouri). No other one-loss team has beaten another one-loss team.

#48: Amen. I read another column here on FO complaining about the lack of quality out-of-conference wins from Big 12 teams, citing Mizzou over Illinois as the only decent win. LSU beat Va Tech, but I don't see any other quality OOC victories from the SEC. The twelve SEC teams did manage to beat 9 non-Div 1A teams and 10 from the Sun Belt, though.

So, with this Oregon loss can we officially rename the Pac-10 to the "Big West," given the similarity to another conference (one consistently competitive team, a couple other teams that flash quality every now and then, a bunch of crappy teams that shouldn't play D-I football)?

Re #50
Only if we can rename the the Big East the "Eastern Seaboard Athletic Conference," the Big XII the "little xii," and the Big Ten the "Super Mac-10." I actually think that last one is catchy, though it may rile the gun manufacturer. Oh, and the SEC and ACC are fine as is, so long as people recognize they stand for "Southeastern Confederacy" and "Awful Crappy Conference," respectively.

#50: "a bunch of crappy teams that shouldn't play D-I football."

Welcome to the age of parity, Aaron. The Pac 10 has fewer of those than most conferences. Interesting, though, how when the SEC teams all beat each other it's supposedly a sign of how strong and deep their conference is, but when it happens in other conferences it's a sign of weakness.

#49: By my calculation, the twelve teams from the Big XII managed to beat 14 non-Div 1A teams (4 from the Southland, 6 from the Sunbelt, 3 from the Gateway, and 1 from the Big Sky).

I looked through the entire Big XI schedule and I don't see any other quality wins outside of Mizzou over Illinois, unless you count OU's thrashing of Miami, or Nebraska beating Wake Forest.

Aside from LSU destroying Va Tech, Georiga beat Oklahoma St (though not a "great" win, it's a win against your conference) & Auburn beat Kansas St (ditto). Also, many of the SEC teams still have their rivalry game against a non-SEC team: Florida plays Florida St, Georgia plays Ga Tech, and South Carolina plays Clemson. Clemson is currently # 15 in the BCS rankings, and Florida St is #34 in the Sagarin rankings, and Ga Tech is #43. So there is still some opportunity for SEC teams to get a quality OOC win.

I don't like that the SEC plays cupcakes, for the most part, in their OOC schedule, but don't paint it like the SEC is the only conference. The Big XII does it too.

Wow. The fact that tOSU could somehow still wind up in the national title game blows my mind.

This is just sinking in: tOSU lost to a then-unranked Illinois team AT HOME, but only fell to #7? The historic Appy State loss sent the Wolverines into a different zip code, ranking-wise.

If the Ducks' loss last night drops them down below OSU (and it should- the voters are allowed to consider Dixon's injury when reranking the team), that means there are only 4 teams standing between between the Buckeyes and New Orleans. That just doesn't seem right to me.

Michigan could make this whole point moot tomorrow, but that doesn't seem likely.

At least the SEC beats the Sun Belt teams (see Iowa State-Florida Atlantic and Oklahoma State-Troy) and non-1A schools (see Iowa St.-Northern Iowa)

All of the SEC non-conference losses have been to BCS schools-no other conference can say that.

I'm a big SEC fan (Roll Tide), but admittedly the SEC does not look particularly strong this year.

My beloved Tide lost to an average-at-best FSU team, on a neutral site, in a very ugly game. Auburn lost at home to a South Florida team that has been proven to be not particularly good. Tennessee was beaten soundly by a Cal team that is now barely .500 and they are likely to win the SEC East. Mississippi State -- despite being bowl eligible with wins over Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama -- was absolutely embarrassed by West Virginia. Ole Miss squeaked by Memphis (23-21), lost to Missouri, and squeaked by lowly Northwestern State after the Demons mounted a huge second half comeback. South Carolina barely survived a 3-7 North Carolina team in Chapel Hill.

You get the idea.

LSU's win over Virginia Tech is really the only semi-impressive out-of-conference win the SEC has had all season, and I'm not sure how impressive that is. The margin of victory was certainly impressive, but the win itself was nothing special because Virginia Tech, as I see it, is nothing special.

The SEC is usually very strong, but that certainly does not seem to be the case this year. LSU is likely the best team in the conference, but even I wonder how good they are. This is very much a down year for the conference, and even with that LSU has lost one conference game already, and they've trailed in three others in the final two minutes. They are playing a weak conference slate -- especially considering their schedule did not include Georgia and Tennessee -- and it's not like they are dominating. They are lucky as hell to be where they are at.

I will say, though, that the SEC looks to improve next year. LSU will take a step back because they lose a ton, particularly on defense, and Arkansas / Kentucky will likely take a step back because of the loss of Woodson and the expected loss of McFadden. Aside from that, though, the rest of the conference should improve. Alabama, Georgia, and Florida all return a ton of starters and have great incoming recruiting classes. Ole Miss should take off a bit next year when everyone returns and Snead takes over at QB. Mississippi State returns essentially everyone. Auburn, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt may not improve, but they are likely to be as good as they are this year.

So, for 2008, that looks like three teams that will drop off, six teams that will improve, and three that should stay about the same. It's very much a down year for the SEC, but next year we'll see a bounce-back.

LSU’s win over Virginia Tech is really the only semi-impressive out-of-conference win the SEC has had all season.

Whoa..."semi-impressive?" Va Tech is currently 10th in the BCS standings. If there is a better OOC win all season, please name it.

Oregon's coaching staff has got to get some blame for last night.

How do you have a a run-option offense that is totally dependent on having a fast, atheltic qb and make the backup a Leaf brother?

Also how where they not more prepared for having to replace Dixon mid-game? This was not some random unpredicatble injury.

#53 Yes, everyone plays cupcakes in OOC. You would too if you were making the schedule. The BCS money to be gained means you shouldn't take unnecessary chances with tough opponents early. Where's the payoff? There's none. College basketball is different. If you aren't scheduling tough games there that's just dumb as it would be good practice for the tournament. But one loss in football is just too much when undefeated and 1 loss teams play for the title most every year.

#59 -- I'm not arguing your point. I agree with you. My point is: don't paint the SEC out to be the only conference that does it, as posting #49 attempted to do. EVERY team/conference plays cupcakes in the OOC schedule. Even Michigan, who held out forever in scheduling a true cupcake, played a D-I AA team this year (regardless of the outcome).

#53: Thanks for your response. If you are going to count Ga Tech and Florida St (who haven't actually lost to Georgia or Florida yet), I can certainly count Wake Forest (same overall record and better conf record than Ga Tech) and Miami (one game behind Fla St, but beat them in Tallahassee). So that leaves you with a potential win vs. Clemson to hang your hat on. Not exactly a slam dunk. I also noticed you didn't mention Missouri's win over Ole Miss. Not a "great" win, but it is a win against your conference.

The Big 12, esp. Kansas, has been ridiculed all year long for their cupcake OOC schedule. I have never defended the practice, but was merely trying to trying to point out that the all-powerful SEC does it too. Thanks for conceding my point.

If the three SEC teams you mention can win all three of those games against their ACC rivals, I will concede that the SEC has won more "significant" (whatever that means) OOC games than the Big 12, FWIW. I am hoping for a Big 12-SEC matchup in the title game, and we'll see who comes out on top when all is said and done.

#54 - do you really think a loss to a 1AA team is equivalent to a loss to a 8-3 Big 10 team?

#37: Yeah, Arizona got lucky. Don't talk to a Duck fan about dropped passes, or did you actually forget about Dixon's interception in the end zone? Cause that wasn't about the Arizona defense making a good play.

You may be right about the block in the back; I didn't watch a good replay of it. But it happened because of a short field, and that happened because Dixon was gone. The officiating was horrible (the two noncalls on the face masks were just ridiculous) but Arizona got lucky.

And they were never more lucky than when Dixon went down.

I do hope Dixon gets to play again for the Ducks. I also think that Oregon can actually go to the Rose. If they know Dixon's going to be out, they can scheme a bit differently. Against UCLA they'll be playing a team as devastated by injury as the Ducks are. And against OSU, they've always got a shot at home. If we have Stewart back, I think we have a real shot; all we need is ASU to lose against USC, and that should be the likely outcome.

And then we need to win two games with Brady Leaf. Gah.

#55: Very good point re: the SEC losing only to other BCS schools. I won't attempt to defend the Iowa St losses, but Troy is leading their conference and averages a 46 in the BCS computer rankings. At least Oklahoma St was brave/foolish enough to play @ Troy, unlike the three SEC schools who paid for a sacrifical lamb to come to them.

#56: Careful, you could have your SEC fan privileges revoked for being too objective. ;)

#63: Oregon fans are *never* allowed to complain about the officiating when Sooner fans are present. ;)

54: "This is just sinking in: tOSU lost to a then-unranked Illinois team AT HOME, but only fell to #7? The historic Appy State loss sent the Wolverines into a different zip code, ranking-wise."
While I agree with you that Ohio State ( I refuse to use the "The" in front) doesn't belong in the title game, likening their loss to Illinois in the same class as Michigan's loss to Appalachian State is not an apt comparison.
Illinois was ranked as high as #17 before the loss to Iowa (granted, a terrible game by the Illini) dropped them from the top 25. They were still consistently in the "Others receiving votes" group, and if they take care of Northwestern in Champaign on Saturday, will finish 9-3 and should be a serious contender to win the Big Ten in the coming years.

#63: No, I'm saying the officiating was just in general bad. There were bad calls both for and against Oregon, and a lot of entirely missed calls. The Pac-10 reffing sucks and it needs to get fixed. This isn't saying that the Ducks lost because of bad officiating; the Ducks lost because their Heisman QB got injured in the first quarter.

This is saying that Pac-10 refing is subpar.

And is this the point where we talk about Oklahoma forfeiting all their wins because they took money from boosters? I always forget if I say that before or after the "I was unaware that a recovered onside kick scores points" argument.

:)

#61 -- And you're going to hang your hat on Mizzou beating the only winless SEC team?

Ga Tech and Wake basically have the same resume and are 3 spots from each other in Sagarin's ratings, so that's pretty much a wash. Point conceded.

But Florida St is # 34, whereas Miami is #71 (and by the way, if there is another decent place to find rankings of all D-1 teams, let me know...I'm just using Saragin's b/c it's the only one I know). FSU actually has some good wins this year: Alabama and Boston College. Miami, on the other hand, is a terrible team. I'm not sure how they beat FSU, but I'm chalking that up to a rivalry thing. Three of Miami's four other wins came against Florida Int'l, Duke and Marshall. Of course, this is predicated on Florida beating FSU, and if that doesn't happen, I'll eat crow.

And by the way, Kansas should be ridiculed for their OOC schedule. B/c these schedules are made years in advance, you can't control how good a team will be when you schedule them, however, you can at least schedule other BCS schools. And if you look throughout the SEC's OOC schedule, at least their teams are scheduling BCS schools. Arkansas is the only SEC team who did not play an OOC game vs a BCS team this season. Four Big XII teams did not play an OOC game vs a BCS team this season: Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech and Baylor.

And by the way, just for the record, Clemson is going to destroy South Carolina.

#63" Touche, although the forfeited wins were from 2005, when we beat the Ducks in the Holiday Bowl (thanks to a late int thrown by none other than Brady Leaf). Not sure what you mean with the "recovered onside kick scores points" comment, since the Sooners were ahead 33-27 at that point and would have run out the 1:12 left on the clock had the refs not lost track of the ball and/or actually watched the replay that clearly showed the Oregon player touching the ball early. But I digress....

#68: According to Jerry Palm's collegebcs.com, the average BCS computer ranking for FSU is 40, Miami is 63. When we start discussing teams well outside the top 25 with below .500 conference records, I don't think we can count them as quality wins for either conference.

My original point was that the lack of decent OOC wins isn't limited to the Big 12, or the SEC for that matter. unfortunately there are just too few inter-conference games to make a statistically valid comparison.

Click on my name for a link to all of the computer rankings you could ever want.

The first comment in my previous post was in reference to #67, of course.

#69: the "I'm unaware that an onside kick scores points" means that Oregon was absolutely gifted that call by horrible refs, but the score was still 33-27 Oklahoma at the time. Oregon could still have been stopped. Getting that call meant that Oregon didn't lose the game right then, but Oklahoma didn't lose the game just because of that call.

#71: OK, I see your point. OU would have won had the correct call been made (barring a fumbled snap or something), but even after the blown call they still could have won by stopping Oregon (or making the last-minute FG). In other words, if the OU players and coaches had immediately forgotten about the worst call in the history of televised football and concentrated on defense, they might still have won. True enough, although if I were a Duck I would feel a little dirty making that argument.

I think we can all agree that the Pac 10 refs sucked last year and continue to suck this year, and the conference doesn't seem to be doing anything proactive to fix the problem. Suspending the officials after the fact doesn't really help much.

Whoa…�semi-impressive?� Va Tech is currently 10th in the BCS standings. If there is a better OOC win all season, please name it.

My point was that I didn't see how beating Virginia Tech was particularly impressive because the Hokies are not particularly impressive.

I understand that they are 8-2 and 10th in the BCS, but what have they done? They have won eight football games as a result of a very weak out-of-conference schedule sans LSU -- East Carolina, Ohio, and William & Mary -- and a very weak ACC. The truth is that the ACC, with Miami and Florida State both struggling greatly, is nothing is a very weak conference. Moreover, in a crazy year like this in which even the top teams have been beaten by some pretty mediocre teams, being 10th in the BCS is nothing particularly special. And it's also meaningless. As weak as the ACC is, they will only get one BCS spot (the guaranteed spot for the ACC Champion), so it only matters if they win the ACC or not. Where they are at in the BCS is wholly meaningless.

I just don't see how they've done anything special. The biggest win they've had all year long was when they beat Clemson, and those Tigers are nothing special in their own right. And they won that when Clemson had a meltdown of turnovers and special teams breakdowns. All in all, the Hokies are a team with a bad offense, a good but not great defense, and a good special teams unit. Put it all together and you have a pretty good team that is nothing particularly impressive.

They've played one team that was particularly good all year long, and that was when LSU killed them. And that loss really looks terrible at the moment. 7-3 Kentucky beat LSU, 7-3 Florida led LSU in Tiger Stadium for 59 minutes, 6-4 Auburn led LSU in Tiger Stadium for about 50 minutes and led until LSU won with a touchdown pass with one second left, and 6-4 Alabama led LSU the entire second half, including with well under five minutes to go. It is clear, considering how much they've struggled with all of those teams, that LSU is not that good. Yet that same team that has struggled with all of those opponents made an absolute joke of the Hokies. Aside from the Sisters of the Poor -- Louisiana Tech, Tulane, etc. -- LSU had an easier time with VT than just about anyone on the schedule.

The LSU win over Virginia Tech may be the most impressive out-of-conference win in the country this year, but I think that speaks much more to the lack of out-of-conference games that pit good teams versus other good teams.

The officials from last night should never be allowed to use replay again.

This is just sinking in: tOSU lost to a then-unranked Illinois team AT HOME, but only fell to #7? The historic Appy State loss sent the Wolverines into a different zip code, ranking-wise.

Seriously, there's unranked, and there's unranked. "Unranked" Illinois was 7-3, and had gone on the road against Missouri and played them closer than any other team except for 1-loss Oklahoma. All three of Illinois' losses were close in the fourth quarter, so it's not like they were getting blown out by anyone. They've been a very competitive team this year, even against highly ranked opponents.

Losing a close game against a team of Illinois' caliber isn't proof that a team isn't very good. I mean, LSU lost to 7-3 Kentucky, and they're ranked 1st. Oklahoma lost to 5-6 Colorado, and they're still ranked in the top 5.

#62 do you really think a loss to a 1AA team is equivalent to a loss to a 8-3 Big 10 team?

#64 likening their loss to Illinois in the same class as Michigan’s loss to Appalachian State is not an apt comparison. Illinois was ranked as high as #17 before the loss to Iowa (granted, a terrible game by the Illini) dropped them from the top 25. They were still consistently in the “Others receiving votes� group

The current standings do reflect that Illinois is no cupcake- they're now #19.

So no, I don't think the two losses are truly on a par- so I'm not suggesting that Ohio State should go from #1 to #20.

What I am suggesting is that OSU shouldn't still be within spitting distance of a #1 or #2 spot. Especially since they only have one more game left, and that against a weak Michigan team! Does the BCS really want a repeat of last January, with OSU playing the role of the Washington Generals for whomever is left at #1?

At the very least, #8 Arizona State's road loss to Oregon should make their 9-1 record "prettier" than Ohio State's 10-1.

I guess the bottom line for me is that I think all of the Big Ten is overranked this year, and if OSU's 7-1 record in that conference (coupled with their wins over Akron, Kent State and Youngstown State) propels them to the 2008 title game, I think it will be yet another BCS travesty.

Using tellshow's bcs rankings (and considering only i-aa losses--and ranking that in the last category).

VS 1-20
SEC: 1-2 (W-#10, L-#5, #6)
P10: 2-1 (W-#18, #20; L-#7)
B12: 1-3 (W-#19, L-#8, #9, #11)

vs 21-40
SEC: 0-3 (L-#27, #33, #34)
P10: 2-3 (W-#21, #49; L-#22, #25, #31)
B12: 2-2 (W-#29, #36; L-#28, #33)

vs 41-60
SEC: 7-0
P10: 3-2
B12: 4-1

vs 61-80
SEC: 4-0
P10: 2-1
B12: 7-2

vs 81-100
SEC: 5-0
P10: 6-1
B12: 6-1

vs 101-120
SEC: 11-0
P10: 3-0
B12: 7-2

"signature win"? gag

Leach has beat A&M consistently and has mixed in an ocassional win against UT and OU.

The Holiday Bowl win over a Cal team that thought they deserved a BCS game also comes to mind.

Let's face it. There really has not been a dominant force in college football this year. Two teams will probably wind up backing into the championship game.

LSU has been nowhere near being a dominant team since VT. They have scratched and clawed to have only one loss. Kansas no doubt has produced the most lopsided contests and have the benefit of no losses so far. However their schedule is an absolute joke (even the Big 12 one without OU or UT). They will get exposed by Missou next week and hopefully fall out of the top ten so we don't have to worry about seeing them in a BCS bowl game. If by some stretch they get incredibly lucky and manage to knock both Missou and OU out, then they have the makings of a true championship game.

The BCS games overall this year will be a joke. If OSU beats Michigan and Hawaii falls, then what will be the second team to come out of the Big 10, ACC, or Big East for those games?

76: Fair enough. But of all the one-loss teams BCS conferences, Ohio State is ranked second-to-last (ahead of only Arizona State).

LSU (BCS #1)
Oklahoma (BCS #4)
Missouri (BCS #5)
West Virgina(BCS #6)
Ohio State (BCS #7)
Arizona State (BCS #8)

Still, to make it to the title game, Ohio State would need ALL of the following to happen:

LSU to lose (likely twice).
Kansas to lose.
Oklahoma to lose.
Missouri to lose.
West Virginia to lose.

If all that happens, Ohio State would still only be ranked ahead of two one-loss teams: Arizona State and Kansas, both of whom haven't really beaten anyone either. So at what point are we only punishing Ohio State because of a game that happened last year, with a different starting QB, RB, WR1, and WR2?

79: "The BCS games overall this year will be a joke. If OSU beats Michigan and Hawaii falls, then what will be the second team to come out of the Big 10, ACC, or Big East for those games?"
If Hawaii loses to Boise State, it will likely be the Broncos, for the second year in a row. If Hawaii loses to someone else, then it's anyone's guess. Right now, teams 14-20 in the BCS standings are:

14. ACC - Virginia
15. ACC - Clemson
16. WAC - Hawaii
17. ACC - Boston College
18. WAC - Boise State
19. B10 - Illinois
20. SEC - Tennesee

Under your scenario, Hawaii loses, so we drop them. Only one of the ACC teams (Virginia Tech (#10), Virginia, Clemson, and Boston College) will likely be ranked in the top 16 after the ACC championship, so it looks bad for an ACC at-large bid. Tennessee is irrelevant unless it wins the SEC, as Georgia and Florida are likely much more attractive as at-large teams.
So that leaves Boise State (if they are the ones who beat Hawaii) and Illinois, which could conceivably move up to #16 if they beat Northwestern on Saturday and Virginia Tech wins the ACC (as expected). But it's probably likely that Boise State or Hawaii only loses to the other, so I'd say the likelihood goes:

Hawaii/Boise State winner
Illinois
best remaining ACC team

80,

I'm not a Buckeye fan, but I think you are grossly overstating what Ohio State needs to do in order to get to the national championship game.

You talk of Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas, but two of those three teams will be eliminated. At the end of the day, the Big 12 Champion, whomever that may be, is headed to the national championship game.

The other team will be LSU, assuming the Bayou Bengals win out. If they lose, however, it's going to come neck and neck between West Virginia and Ohio State. The Buckeyes currently trail the Mountaineers by a small margin, but they could make that up with a win over Michigan, and let us not forget that WVU has two games remaining against currently ranked opponents -- Cincinnati and UConn -- plus a rivalry game remaining with Pittsburgh. It's far from a given that they'll win out, they still have 25% of their schedule remaining.

Again, I'm not a Buckeye fan, but I think you are grossly overstating the case.

At this point, it seems that if Ohio State can just get LSU to lose one game -- and not two, an 11-1 Ohio State team will be guaranteed to go above an 11-2 LSU team in the BCS standings -- to either Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the SEC Championship game, and then take care of business against Michigan, they're headed to NOLA.

Seemingly all the Buckeyes need is to beat Michigan and have LSU lose once in the final three games.

82 (PaulH):
Yes, I did overstate what needed to happen for Ohio State to make the title game. However, my main point is the same: a one-loss Ohio State team shouldn't be disregarded simply because of what happened last year. (In fact, some people are making the same ridiculous argument against Oklahoma beating out other one-loss teams.)
You present two scenarios: (1) both LSU and West Virginia lose and (2) just LSU loses.
Scenario 1:
Big XII champ in (I don't disagree) and all other Big XII teams not in the running for national title.
One-loss BCS teams:

Ohio State
Arizona State
I don't see the problem. Arizona State hasn't really beaten anyone, either, so I see no problem with Ohio State vs. Big XII champ in the title game.
Scenario 2:
Big XII champ in (I don't disagree) and all other Big XII teams not in the running for national title.
One-loss BCS teams:

Ohio State
West Virginia
Arizona State

Above, I acknowledged ASU, so I won't here. As for West Virginia, if they win out, I don't see how OSU's win over Michigan would be considered more impressive by the computers than WVU's wins over Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Pitt. If both WVU and OSU win out, all the teams they beat will end up being unranked anyways, and WVU is already ahead of OSU.
I've don't mean to defend OSU, and I really don't want to see them in the title game again (they're not that good), but it would be hard to place Arizona State ahead of them, and I really don't think they pass West Virginia unless the Mountaineers lose.
And to be honest, I'm really hoping that enough ACC schools lose so that the BCS has no choice but to take Illinois as an at-large team :)

83,

I think you pretty nailed it there. I'm not necessarily saying that Ohio State will pass WVU if both win out, but I think it's possible, especially if they beat Ohio State convincingly.

And honestly, I think there is a much better chance that West Virginia loses once in its final three games than the chance of Ohio State losing to Michigan. The Buckeyes aren't great, but Michigan sure as hell isn't and they've owned the Wolverines as of late.

That said, though, if LSU wins out it's all going to be a moot point.

84: I agree totally about West Virginia's chances; I feel like, of all the top ranked teams, they're the one most likely to lay an egg at the worst time and look like crap against UConn or even Pitt.
In fact, coming to the realization that Ohio State still has a decent shot at the national championship is depressing me. It really seems that if West Virginia loses (now the pessimist in me is seeing this as a near certainty :P) and either LSU loses or Oklahoma loses before the Big XII title game and then wins the Big XII title, OSU will play for the national championship yet again.

#59: That's funny, I seem to recall Texas playing TOSU (THE Ohio State University) in Columbus early one season and winning the title, followed by the rematch in Autin and the Buckeyes getting to the title game and being heavily favored. So much for the argument that playing tough OOC opponents keeps teams from the title :-)

I'm every glad that others see what I've seen about LSU for at least a month--that they're in fact one of the luckiest college football teams I've ever seen and their unearthly 4th down conversion are simply isn't sustainable. And even with all their incredible luck they still have a loss (by rights they should have three). Mark my words, they will barely scrape by Ole Miss and lose to the Vols in the SEC title game.

Are the Sooners going to be #2 now? If so, I'd watch out for a loss by them to Okie State. It's happened twice before...

Dixon had torn his ACL two weeks ago, but was cleared to play???

"The quarterback tore his anterior cruciate ligament during Oregon's Nov. 3 victory over Arizona State, according to coach Mike Bellotti, but he had rested it and felt like he was ready to play Thursday night against the Wildcats."

Wow. The fact that tOSU could somehow still wind up in the national title game blows my mind.

This is just sinking in: tOSU lost to a then-unranked Illinois team AT HOME, but only fell to #7? The historic Appy State loss sent the Wolverines into a different zip code, ranking-wise.

Ohio State was 10 - 1 after their loss, Michigan was 0 - 1 after theirs. Ohio State's body of work for 2007 is still impressive.

24 hours Dennis Dixon was looking at a probably Heisman and a trip to the National Championship Game. Ouch.

WOW.

So Dixon had a torn ACL going into the game and Oregon kept it a secret. And they played him. And they had no plan whatsoever when he predictably went down.

I bet people who bet on Oregon last night are not too pleased with that program.

I don't think all of Oregon knew. I think it was Belotti, Dixon, and the medical staff. I can understand Dixon wanting that too.

But wow, does that suck.

Heck, if Michigan wins and Illinois takes care of the wildcats as expected, doesn't that make the Illini the #2 team in the big 10?

Re 88

What's impressive about beating a bunch of crappy teams?

#86 That’s funny, I seem to recall Texas playing TOSU (THE Ohio State University) in Columbus early one season and winning the title, followed by the rematch in Autin and the Buckeyes getting to the title game and being heavily favored. So much for the argument that playing tough OOC opponents keeps teams from the title :-)

Of course the losers of those games were pretty much eliminated from the championship right away. If you win a game against a tough OOC team, it doesn't keep you from the title, but if you lose a game it sure can.

So much for the argument that playing tough OOC opponents keeps teams from the title.

I don't think anyone is arguing that you cannot play in the national championship game if you play a tough out-of-conference opponent. The argument is that playing tough out-of-conference opponents makes it much more difficult to get to the big game. You can still do it, but it's a lot tougher to do.

Obviously it's a lot tougher to go through Ohio State than it is Ohio, and the odds of you making the big game obviously goes up if you take the creampuff route. But that's not to say that you cannot do it the other way, only that it makes things tougher.

Tennessee is not beating LSU in the SEC championship. I am hoping Vandy or Kentucky knocks Tennessee off so Georgia can get in there.

95,

I don't know, at this point anything could happen. On the surface LSU should be the favorite, but if Tennessee plays them like they did Georgia or Arkansas, LSU is likely going down. On the other hand, if Tennessee plays anything like they did against Cal, Florida, or 'Bama, LSU will blow them out of the water.

I guess the point is that with there being no truly great teams this year, nothing is a given. There is a lot of parity, and the real world effect of that is that, especially among the better teams, seemingly anyone can beat anyone on any given day. If you're LSU I think you have to hope that you play Tennessee, but a win is not guaranteed.

Don't forget, Tennessee led LSU last year in Knoxville until they lost on a touchdown pass with 9 seconds left. Anything can happen.

Speaking of LSU... I cannot ever remember a team winning more close games at the very end than they have the past couple of years.

Last year they beat Tennessee on a game-winning touchdown pass with nine seconds left. They forced overtime against Ole Miss with a touchdown pass as time expired, and beat them in overtime. Earlier this year they beat Florida with a last minute touchdown pass after trailing for 59 minutes. They beat Auburn after trailing 50 minutes with a long touchdown pass with one second left on the clock. They beat Alabama after trailing the entire second half on a touchdown with about 1:30 to play.

Exactly what does FO research say about that? After reading all of the stuff about guts and stomps, etc., you would expect them to come back down to Earth a bit, but they keep on winning close game after close game. Oh sure they drop one occasionally -- see Kentucky -- but they seemingly win 3 out of 4 close ones they play.

Any thoughts?

#95: I hate the Vols, so I don't want them winning the SEC title either, but they are going to win the East and they way LSU is walking the tightrope, I can easily see them losing. Plus there is some history, as a few years back LSU upset a highly favored Vols squad n the SEC title game.

#97: LSU has all the talent in the world, but Les Miles drags them down to the point where he HAS to keep going for it on 4th down late in order for them to barely win, if that makes any sense.

And Hawaii just edged Navada by two on a late FG BTW, as Nevada coach Chris Ault's lame attampt to call not one, but TWO timeouts to freeze the kicker failed, as it should have. I hate it when one timeout is called in that situation, but to call two in a row? I really think that rule should be abolished next year. No more timeouts as the ball is being snapped for the kick, that's just unbelievably lame, and furthermore it hardly ever works to begin with.

ALERT: If you have HBO, you have to see the documentary on the Michigan vs Ohio State rivalry.

If you don't have HBO, order it for a month just for this. It's that good. You'll thank me.

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