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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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» Printable version

Week 14 DVOA Ratings

12/12/2007

by Aaron Schatz

Well, first of all, we sincerely apologize for all the problems over the last two days. The server situation got so bad yesterday that we had to start our server migration a day early, which meant no DVOA ratings article because we didn’t want it to suddenly disappear when the migration started. We still have some things that need fixing, but we’ll be catching up with all our columns over the next couple days (Every Play Counts is going to run Thursday afternoon) and this should mean a major improvement to our traffic issues, with an even better, more permanent solution planned for the off-season. Let’s hit the numbers then a couple comments…

* * * * *

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 14 weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
WEEK 		WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
1 NE 60.5% 1 57.8% 1 13-0 48.2% 1 -7.9% 7 4.4% 7
2 DAL 38.0% 2 39.4% 2 12-1 30.3% 2 -7.0% 8 0.8% 13
3 IND 36.0% 3 30.6% 3 11-2 29.2% 3 -13.1% 3 -6.2% 31
4 GB 27.3% 5 29.6% 4 11-2 21.8% 4 -1.9% 15 3.6% 10
5 PIT 24.1% 4 16.6% 9 9-4 4.8% 13 -21.3% 1 -2.1% 20
6 JAC 20.4% 8 23.4% 5 9-4 16.5% 5 -0.2% 16 3.7% 8
7 TB 17.5% 6 16.4% 10 8-5 12.2% 8 -7.9% 6 -2.6% 22
8 SD 16.4% 7 18.7% 6 8-5 4.2% 14 -6.3% 9 5.9% 3
9 SEA 16.2% 10 17.6% 8 9-4 3.7% 15 -10.0% 5 2.5% 12
10 MIN 14.7% 9 17.9% 7 7-6 6.3% 12 -4.8% 10 3.6% 9
11 CLE 7.3% 11 12.5% 11 8-5 12.5% 7 12.3% 27 7.1% 2
12 CIN 5.9% 12 7.3% 12 5-8 13.4% 6 8.2% 22 0.7% 14
13 PHI 3.4% 13 0.7% 16 5-8 9.4% 10 2.3% 17 -3.7% 28
14 DEN 2.4% 20 2.4% 14 6-7 11.5% 9 5.9% 21 -3.2% 24
15 WAS 0.4% 14 -1.3% 18 6-7 -4.0% 21 -3.7% 12 0.7% 15
16 NYG 0.1% 15 0.3% 17 9-4 -1.8% 19 -3.4% 13 -1.5% 17
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
WEEK 		WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
17 BUF 0.0% 18 4.4% 13 7-6 -2.6% 20 2.5% 18 5.1% 6
18 TEN -0.3% 16 -4.1% 19 7-6 -9.8% 23 -13.1% 2 -3.7% 27
19 NO -6.4% 22 0.9% 15 6-7 9.0% 11 12.4% 28 -2.9% 23
20 BAL -8.0% 17 -9.9% 21 4-9 -16.5% 27 -10.2% 4 -1.7% 18
21 CHI -9.1% 21 -5.8% 20 5-8 -19.2% 28 -2.0% 14 8.1% 1
22 ARI -9.4% 19 -11.0% 22 6-7 -1.8% 18 4.2% 20 -3.5% 25
23 HOU -9.5% 24 -11.7% 23 6-7 0.0% 17 12.0% 26 2.5% 11
24 DET -13.1% 26 -13.8% 24 6-7 1.6% 16 8.9% 23 -5.8% 30
25 NYJ -19.2% 25 -13.9% 25 3-10 -8.8% 22 15.5% 31 5.1% 5
26 KC -19.7% 23 -20.5% 26 4-9 -22.6% 31 -4.7% 11 -1.8% 19
27 ATL -26.4% 28 -26.9% 28 3-10 -13.9% 26 12.6% 29 0.1% 16
28 OAK -27.1% 27 -24.3% 27 4-9 -13.0% 25 10.5% 25 -3.6% 26
29 CAR -29.7% 30 -32.0% 29 5-8 -20.3% 29 3.0% 19 -6.4% 32
30 MIA -31.7% 29 -36.0% 31 0-13 -12.6% 24 16.7% 32 -2.5% 21
31 STL -34.5% 31 -33.6% 30 3-10 -20.5% 30 9.6% 24 -4.4% 29
32 SF -44.8% 32 -45.4% 32 3-10 -35.8% 32 14.9% 30 5.9% 4

  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as “Forest Index” that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team’s weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).


TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK PAST
SCHED 		RANK FUTURE
SCHED 		RANK VAR. RANK
1 NE 60.5% 13-0 58.7% 12.3 1 5.2% 3 -25.4% 27 12.0% 18
2 DAL 38.0% 12-1 39.6% 10.3 3 -0.1% 17 -13.0% 22 10.3% 22
3 IND 36.0% 11-2 35.8% 10.8 2 2.7% 12 -18.4% 24 17.6% 8
4 GB 27.3% 11-2 30.9% 9.5 4 -0.6% 19 -28.3% 28 10.0% 23
5 PIT 24.1% 9-4 23.7% 8.0 9 -0.5% 18 -11.0% 21 26.8% 2
6 JAC 20.4% 9-4 19.9% 9.3 5 1.2% 14 -6.2% 19 5.8% 32
7 TB 17.5% 8-5 19.7% 8.4 6 -4.5% 25 -50.5% 32 14.8% 13
8 SD 16.4% 8-5 10.3% 7.6 11 4.9% 6 -18.9% 25 22.1% 5
9 SEA 16.2% 9-4 24.2% 8.1 8 -9.6% 32 -32.0% 29 10.8% 20
10 MIN 14.7% 7-6 18.7% 8.2 7 -2.9% 23 -3.2% 18 20.4% 7
11 CLE 7.3% 8-5 7.5% 7.4 12 -1.2% 20 -19.5% 26 6.8% 29
12 CIN 5.9% 5-8 9.9% 7.7 10 2.4% 13 -34.6% 31 7.6% 28
13 PHI 3.4% 5-8 -3.2% 7.2 13 6.0% 2 15.8% 10 12.6% 17
14 DEN 2.4% 6-7 5.0% 6.5 16 0.6% 16 10.8% 14 37.7% 1
15 WAS 0.4% 6-7 -8.5% 6.4 18 4.8% 7 26.4% 6 9.2% 25
16 NYG 0.1% 9-4 1.3% 6.7 15 -1.4% 21 30.5% 3 6.6% 30
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK PAST
SCHED 		RANK FUTURE
SCHED 		RANK VAR. RANK
17 BUF 0.0% 7-6 -6.9% 6.9 14 7.3% 1 5.4% 15 12.6% 16
18 TEN -0.3% 7-6 -3.1% 6.4 17 0.8% 15 -1.4% 17 16.5% 9
19 NO -6.4% 6-7 -3.6% 6.1 19 -6.7% 31 -7.6% 20 13.9% 14
20 BAL -8.0% 4-9 -15.8% 5.5 22 4.0% 10 4.3% 16 15.3% 11
21 CHI -9.1% 5-8 -12.4% 5.6 21 3.3% 11 17.8% 9 7.7% 27
22 ARI -9.4% 6-7 -2.9% 5.1 24 -6.2% 30 -33.6% 30 26.7% 3
23 HOU -9.5% 6-7 -9.7% 5.4 23 -3.1% 24 29.4% 4 11.9% 19
24 DET -13.1% 6-7 -11.0% 5.9 20 4.6% 8 12.0% 13 21.0% 6
25 NYJ -19.2% 3-10 -21.2% 4.4 25 4.9% 5 20.3% 8 10.7% 21
26 KC -19.7% 4-9 -24.3% 4.3 26 4.9% 4 -16.3% 23 26.0% 4
27 ATL -26.4% 3-10 -20.3% 4.1 27 -5.2% 28 12.2% 12 6.1% 31
28 OAK -27.1% 4-9 -23.1% 3.3 29 -2.3% 22 36.4% 1 14.8% 12
29 CAR -29.7% 5-8 -24.4% 3.8 28 -4.5% 26 35.9% 2 15.6% 10
30 MIA -31.7% 0-13 -37.8% 3.0 30 4.2% 9 29.2% 5 13.8% 15
31 STL -34.5% 3-10 -29.7% 2.8 31 -4.9% 27 21.0% 7 9.8% 24
32 SF -44.8% 3-10 -37.9% 2.4 32 -6.2% 29 15.4% 11 8.3% 26

Best and Worst DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA
AFTER WEEK 14		   BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA
AFTER WEEK 14		   WORST TOTAL DVOA
AFTER WEEK 14		   WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA
AFTER WEEK 14
2007 NE 60.5%   2007 NE 48.2%   2005 SF -63.8%   2005 SF -45.4%
1999 STL 48.5%   2004 IND 45.1%   1999 CLE -52.6%   1997 NO -40.3%
2001 STL 44.5%   2002 KC 37.9%   2000 CLE -46.4%   2002 HOU -39.6%
2004 PIT 42.3%   1998 DEN 33.1%   2003 ARI -45.1%   2007 SF -35.8%
2004 NE 41.7%   2005 IND 32.7%   2000 CIN -45.0%   2004 CHI -35.0%
2005 IND 41.0%   2006 IND 31.8%   2007 SF -44.8%   2000 CLE -34.5%
1998 DEN 40.8%   2000 IND 31.3%   2004 SF -44.7%   2006 OAK -33.6%
2002 TB 40.8%   2007 DAL 30.3%   2000 ARI -44.4%   2004 MIA -32.8%
2004 IND 39.1%   2004 KC 29.8%   1998 PHI -43.4%   1998 PHI -32.6%
2007 DAL 38.0%   2007 IND 29.2%   2002 ARI -43.4%   2001 CAR -30.1%

How good are the Patriots? They beat one of the top five teams in the league by three touchdowns and their DVOA rating actually went down by one percentage point. OK, it isn’t quite like that… The Patriots had a rating of 69.4% for this game; their overall dropped slightly because of changes in opponent adjustments. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, had a rating of 18.7% and barely saw their league-best defense drop despite giving up 34 points.

Meanwhile, while the undefeated Patriots are keeping up their high level of play, the winless Dolphins have completely dropped off a cliff. Three weeks ago, I wrote an article at ESPN.com saying that the Dolphins would not finish 0-16. They simply were not playing like the worst team in football. Well, in the last two weeks, that has changed. In two weeks, Miami’s DVOA rating has gone from -16.2% to -31.7%. To show just how horrible the Dolphins have been in the last two games, I put together a DVOA week-to-week graph:

For most of the season, Miami was just a garden-variety bad team with poor luck. Their last two games have been two of the three worst games of the season according to DVOA. The only game with a lower rating was also played in Week 14. If you look at which teams moved up and down significantly in the ratings, you may be able to figure out which game it was. Since very few people actually watched the game, it’s probably a bit of a surprise.

Worst Single-Game DVOA 2007
(through Week 14)
Team Opp. Week DVOA Score
KC DEN 14 -143.4% 41-7
MIA BUF 14 -104.3% 38-17
MIA NYJ 13 -101.7% 40-13
STL TB 3 -98.3% 24-3
SF CAR 13 -92.5% 31-14
DEN SD 5 -87.4% 41-3
CAR NO 12 -85.5% 31-6
SD MIN 9 -84.8% 35-17
ARI CAR 6 -81.5% 25-10
OAK GB 14 -81.4% 38-7

Kansas City managed a single touchdown against a below-average defense. They went 1-for-13 on third-down conversions and gained 2.5 yards per offensive play, including 16 yards rushing on 17 carries. They fumbled three times and gave up five sacks, while Denver had just one of each.

On to the housekeeping… all the team stats pages and individual stats pages are now updated, as are the playoff odds. New England now is listed with a 62.2 percent chance of finishing 16-0, while the Dolphins are still listed with less than a 25 percent chance of finishing 0-16. The premium database and Loser League will be updated later today; things are delayed a bit by the server nonsense. LOSER LEAGUE AND PREMIUM NOW UPDATED.

For (short) comments on every team, remember to look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream page.)

posted 12-12-2007 at 12:56 PM by Aaron Schatz || DVOA Ratings ||

190 Comments »

  1. blah blah on the main page… huh!

    first!!

    :: Ch V Kalyan — 12/12/2007 @ 12:55 pm



  2. How does NE have the best rush offense in the league? (20.2 DVOA)

    :: Yosi Scharf — 12/12/2007 @ 12:56 pm



  3. And the crowds rejoice!

    :: Frick — 12/12/2007 @ 12:56 pm



  4. No need to apologize for the server issues. They happen. As long as it’s a sign of the site growing (these servers used to be good enough but they can’t handle the increased traffic) and not mis-management, I think we can all suck it up and deal.

    Any thoughts as to why Miami’s fallen off the cliff? The change in QB is probably part of it, but it can’t explain everything. And it’s notable that even with that dive, they’re still slightly ahead of the Rams and significantly ahead of the 49ers. Which begs the question, how is San Francisco that freaking bad (and how did they win *three* games)?

    :: Trogdor — 12/12/2007 @ 12:57 pm



  5. I love how Miami has 3 estimated wins and 0 real ones, while has SF has 3 real wins and only 2 estimated… The Pats #2 pick looks real good right now.

    :: iowapatsfan — 12/12/2007 @ 12:57 pm



  6. 2: They have a really good O-line plus teams are so afraid of their pass offense.

    :: B — 12/12/2007 @ 12:58 pm



  7. First!

    Yes, the Eagles’ DVOA remains above-average despite another loss. Keep those long, consistent, red zone stalling drives alive.

    Seriously, how do people think the Eagles’ schedule has affected them this season?

    :: apocalypse66 — 12/12/2007 @ 12:58 pm



  8. “Printable version” is linking back to main page… thanks.

    :: GlennW — 12/12/2007 @ 1:00 pm



  9. I’m stunned at how relatively good Miami’s offense is–I would have thought their defense was better than their offense (but I admit I don’t spend a lot of time watching them).

    :: Athelas — 12/12/2007 @ 1:02 pm



  10. To lend further credence to the “there is no ‘Grossman is our starter’, there is no ‘Greise is our starter’, only a CHICAGO quarterback” theory, Grossman/Griese are ranked 33rd/34th in both DPAR and DVOA. The trifecta would be Orton listed at 35th by week 17. Interestingly, Adrian Petersen & Benson are ranked 47th/49th in DPAR and 50th/46th in DVOA. Maybe there’s also the “CHICAGO RB” theory as well.

    :: chip — 12/12/2007 @ 1:11 pm



  11. So umm, wow. I was at the Broncos - Chiefs game, and while the Chiefs looked painfully inept, I don’t think I would have pegged that as the far and away worst game played by anyone this season. How was the Broncos DVOA for this game?

    :: David — 12/12/2007 @ 1:19 pm



  12. Ooooh, look at the new security word images, super cool.

    Anyway, let’s talk about regression to the mean…if Miami just had their two worst DVOA games of the year, what do we think will happen in the ensuing weeks? They’ve got Baltimore this week and will lose by about two touchdowns. Then they’ll play New England closer than everyone thinks they will and will have a shot at winning. If they lose to New England they’ll beat Cincinnati in week 17…if they beat New England, they’ll lose in week 17. No matter what, this team finishes 1-15 and New England finishes 15-1.

    :: footballprofessor — 12/12/2007 @ 1:21 pm



  13. #4 - I’m guessing that “starting at RB, Samkon Gado” is one factor.

    :: Richie — 12/12/2007 @ 1:24 pm



  14. I guess I don’t understand someting about how the system works. The cowboys DVOA is 2 pts better than the Colts, but their weighted DVOA is 9 points better, despite playing a weaker schedule. I thought weighted meant weighted by schedule?

    :: Ian — 12/12/2007 @ 1:27 pm



  15. 4: navin would be able to answer you more completely, but my take is that the Niners are completely offensively inept. Terrible O-line, terrible coaching, bad quarterbacking - they are such a complete disaster to watch that it’s almost comical. The offense looks completely unprepared, and the defense managed to make Atlanta’s passing game look threatening.

    In terms of the Niners having 3 wins, keep in mind that they’re in the division of suck (all of their wins are divisional wins) and completely have the Cardinals’ number for some reason.

    Oh, and Andy Lee is really, really good - and the rest of their special teams aren’t bad. If Lee (and Moorman) don’t go to the Pro Bowl, there’s something seriously wrong.

    :: patriotsgirl — 12/12/2007 @ 1:27 pm



  16. 4. Obviously, it’s the niners brilliant coaching staff that inspired them to win 2 extra games than expected.

    The scuttlebutt on the niners boards is that it’s the offensive total lack of ball control/time of posession that “tires out” the defense and makes it look worse than it actually is.

    I kinda think DVOA accounts for this, at least partially… so I think they just have little talent and bad execution

    :: zenbitz — 12/12/2007 @ 1:28 pm



  17. No matter what, huh?

    :: Jacob Stevens — 12/12/2007 @ 1:29 pm



  18. Wooohooo! I guessed the worst game of the season correctly!

    :: Sid — 12/12/2007 @ 1:29 pm



  19. In amongst the rest of the ‘best/worst ever’ action Denver is putting in a very strong bid to be the most inconsistent team to run onto a field. That 37.7% variance currently leads the field with only the 2005 Niners offering any challenge. Wouldn’t have picked a Shanahan team to do that.

    :: deflated — 12/12/2007 @ 1:30 pm



  20. 14 — weighted measures how good they’re playing “right now,” weighing only the last 8 games — or is it 10? — with the most recent games being weighed slightly more.

    :: Jacob Stevens — 12/12/2007 @ 1:31 pm



  21. I guess I don’t understand someting about how the system works. The cowboys DVOA is 2 pts better than the Colts, but their weighted DVOA is 9 points better, despite playing a weaker schedule. I thought weighted meant weighted by schedule?

    No, it’s weighted by recent performance.

    :: Scott de B. — 12/12/2007 @ 1:33 pm



  22. RE: 4

    Any thoughts as to why Miami’s fallen off the cliff? The change in QB is probably part of it, but it can’t explain everything.

    Cleo Lemon started most of the game against Buffalo and he’s starting in Week 15. The QB situation is a very small part of it. The whole team is in disarray. Their best offensive player was probably Jesse Chatman, and he didn’t play against Buffalo. Same for Marty Booker.
    Their starting QB was Beck, their RB was waiver wire fodder Gado, and their best WR was Ginn, I guess. Combine that with the same bad offensive line and you have a historically bad offense. Don’t let me get started on the defense and special teams.

    :: Sid — 12/12/2007 @ 1:33 pm



  23. any idea whats happened to Seattle’s special teams, they were pretty good now they suck.

    josh brown used to be automatic, now i think hes missed 5 of his last 9 or so

    ryan plackermier used to boot it now he has like 3rd lowest average, and 2nd lowest net.

    kick/punt return is pretty good

    can we blame it all on our extremely shitty long snapper?

    but even our coverage isn’t the same as earlier this season

    :: justin — 12/12/2007 @ 1:34 pm



  24. Well, first of all, we sincerely apologize for all the problems over the last two days. The server situation got so bad yesterday that we had to start our server migration a day early

    Oh, it’s hard to mind too much when the content on here is so good. And if nothing else, the FO outage did wonders for my productivity at work. (I guess that’s a plus.)

    At some point, you guys should really try to move beyond this WordPress system, though. It’s probably really hurting your server load that every time someone posts, they have to load the entire page of comments over again at least twice. Moving to something more efficient might help alleviate the strain on the servers. (Although I guess you guys recognize this already, as it must be at least part of the reason the open game threads are implemented differently.)

    The best thing in the world would be if someday you can go to a self-moderated web forum. I haven’t seen one implemented perfectly — even Slashdot (the original?) has drawbacks — but I can’t imagine a site better suited to the concept than this one.

    On the other hand, the comments here tend to be so good, maybe it would be superfluous. But as you guys keep growing, who knows?

    :: louis — 12/12/2007 @ 1:37 pm



  25. Ewww! 3 of the worst 10 games of 2007 were all in week 14. There were a couple games that aren’t listed there that come ot mind as being pretty ugly too…like the first half of Chicago-Washington on Thursday night. Wait, if no one sees the game, does it exist?

    :: Nevic — 12/12/2007 @ 1:38 pm



  26. For some reason ,i LOVED the prospectus and buy it year after year and listen to it. A lot of this had to do with how accurate I thought that article was on rating Quarterbacks out of college. I thought it pinned down guys like Rivers (now I have changed my mind) and Campbell (big arm, where’s that so called accuracy now?)… and I just thought using all these stats is the right way to predict football. Now I don’t trust my own opinion…
    The DVOA is so overrated. The fact that a team (Giants) can beat the Eagles TWO times in one season, including a game (This past week) where ANY viewer could easily see the Eagles had ONE GOOD DRIVE OF THEIR SCRIPTED plays, and then NOTHING…(they got the ball first and 8 at the 8 after a jacobs fumble, and spags stuffed them to a FIELD GOAL–pathetic), not to mention, jacobs fumbled again INSIDE the eagles 10 yard line. Did I mention that Dahl (undrafted free agent rookie) safety was on the field, and after re watching the tape I saw numerous times where Pierce had to push him to a spot before a play. And Michael Johnson a 7th round pick was our other safety, in only his 3rd game starting….

    What does all that I just said mean?? One thing. These stats are crap. Stats can only take you so far. I would be more impressed if you guys formed opinions on all the games you watched just by that—watching more games than other people. I ALWAYS think the Eagles are the best team in the NFC, this has been a reoccuring thought of mine for the past 4 years. Always worry about them. BUT NOT THIS YEAR BOYS. They suck this year. They are GOD aweful…

    Must give credit where credit is due…the Too Deep Zone article is the best analysis ANYONE on the web gives. If this site was dedicate to more aritcles like that, it would be amazing. Not to mention the quotes article is fun to read….

    :: Dan — 12/12/2007 @ 1:42 pm



  27. Speaking of the ugly, injury-plagued Thursday night game, has anyone noticed that teams playing on short rest (i.e. Thursday night, except for Pakcers-Cowboys who had a normal 7 days rest after Thursday games the previous week) have included a large number of injuries. Packers-Lions on Thanksgiving saw several Packers and a few Lions go out hurt. Bears-Redskins saw lots of injuries too. Is this just an issue of small sample size, or is the long season plus short rest really making a difference. If it is, the NFL should really re-think the Thursday night games.

    :: Nevic — 12/12/2007 @ 1:43 pm



  28. Re 14:

    DVOA is already adjusted for schedule, weighted is adjusted to so early games count less.

    :: Tom — 12/12/2007 @ 1:43 pm



  29. Dear Santa,

    Please let us see what would be THE greatest Any Given Sunday *ever* the week after next: “Dolphins over Patriots.”

    I promise I won’t ask for anything else!

    :: gustav — 12/12/2007 @ 1:44 pm



  30. Aaron’s data really argues for removing the Miami Head coach, but I really can’t see them attracting anyone to that position that is better. If the Dolphins beat the Patriots it will go down as the single greatest WTF in football history. As a Dolfan I can tell you that close to Christmas I got better things to do than watch that “game”. I think the Raven-Dolphins game is the best chance at a Dolphin win this year. The Ravens team that showed up last week is a team that looked a lot like they weren’t anymore interested in playing football than this Miami team is. Sundays game will be an ugly affair watched by only those that like “pain”. Samkon Gado was hardly the worse thing on the field for the Dolphins last Sunday.

    :: Johonny — 12/12/2007 @ 1:48 pm



  31. I would have thought that the Dolphins players would be highly motivated to avoid being part of a winless season and that as the end of the season got closer their intensity/play would get stronger. Another theory dashed.

    :: mawbrew — 12/12/2007 @ 1:49 pm



  32. Loser League is now updated.

    :: Aaron Schatz — 12/12/2007 @ 1:49 pm



  33. #25 - Quick, somebody bring up the zlionsfan DVOA hate template.

    :: Jimi — 12/12/2007 @ 2:00 pm



  34. RE #25:

    [These stats are crap. Stats can only take you so far. I would be more impressed if you guys formed opinions on all the games you watched just by that—watching more games than other people.]

    In short you think FO should give up their competitive advantage and act like most of the 1.3 million other sports commentators in the world? Is that about right?

    :: Ashley Tate — 12/12/2007 @ 2:00 pm



  35. 25: I think DVOA has it dead on with the Giants, and corresponds almost perfectly with the somewhat crude measure of win-loss record.

    Out of their nine wins, four have been against complete disasters: Mia (barely), SF, Atl, and NYJ. They have played four games against teams that currently have winning records: Dal (twice), GB, and Min. They have lost all four (and most were not very close). So, the Giants are 0-4 against good teams; 4-0 against terrible teams, and 5-0 against mediocre-to-bad teams.

    Which means, to me, that they are almost by definition an average team.

    :: patriotsgirl — 12/12/2007 @ 2:02 pm



  36. Re 26:

    There are always going to be anomalies in any season … to use that as an example that DVOA stats suck is ignorant. Yes, the Giants beat the Eagles twice, but those games did not happen in a vacuum … all the other games have to be considered as well. Like the games against the Packers and Bears in which the Eagles completely outplayed their opponent and got unlucky to lose. Or the domination against a Detroit team the Giants struggled to beat.

    Every system has its flaws, but it’s still better than looking at yards gained and yards allowed, which is relatively meaningless. In any given season, the sample size is so small that there can be apparent inaccuracies. But all DVOA is telling us is that if these two teams played ten times, they’d probably both win 5 times, which I would agree with. It just so happens the Giants won the two games that were actually played during this season.

    :: chad w — 12/12/2007 @ 2:03 pm



  37. Er, instead of “win-loss record,” I meant “win-loss” breakdown.

    :: patriotsgirl — 12/12/2007 @ 2:04 pm



  38. #12, 29:
    OK, I am a Pats fan, and I do understand the pervasiveness (and, to some extent, the origins) of Pats-hate, but I find it absolutely befuddling that people would so openly root for a fluke loss by the Pats. Losing to the Colts, Cowboys or Steelers, sure, you may actually like them better, and think they can pull it off. But the Dolphins or Jets?

    Here you are, with the privilege and fun of watching one of the best teams in history do things no other team in history has done before, beat a season win record that a very good but not truly outstanding team has secured and kept for decades thanks to circumstances beyond their real worth, and you wish that a sloppy field and a couple fumbles rolling the wrong (or right) way would cause the Pats to lose to an abysmally inferior opponent. Just for kicks and gloating.

    Frankly, if the Colts (or some other team I dislike: Jets, Oakland, etc) were in the same situation, I would hope they would lose to the Pats and no one else. Just strange.

    :: slo-mo-joe — 12/12/2007 @ 2:05 pm



  39. According to your playoff odds, the odds of the Patriots winning their divisional round playoff game are: 72.8%

    The odds of the Patriots winning the conference game if they have already won their divisional round game are: 67.9%

    How can there be so little difference? Isn’t NE likely to face a much stronger opponent in the championship game?

    :: Jason — 12/12/2007 @ 2:06 pm



  40. Maybe the dolphins look over at the niners and see them with 3 wins and think ‘you know, all this trying hard and not playing that badly hasn’t been working… let’s do what they do instead, and maybe we will win, too.’ That’s my only guess for why they have fallen off so badly.

    :: David — 12/12/2007 @ 2:10 pm



  41. Printable link just brings us back to the front page.

    :: Boston Dan — 12/12/2007 @ 2:11 pm



  42. #39: The difference between New England and Indianapolis (likely AFCCG opponent) is greater than the difference between Indianapolis and, say, Jacksonville or San Diego (likely AFC Divisional Round opponent).

    :: Jimi — 12/12/2007 @ 2:11 pm



  43. 39 (Jason),

    Not really. The Pats would probably face the Jags (5th in Weighted DVOA) or the Chargers (6th) in the divisional round, followed by either the Colts (3rd) or the Steelers (9th) in the AFC Championship. There’s not that much improvement there.

    :: Eric J — 12/12/2007 @ 2:12 pm



  44. Re Miami:

    Is there a variable in the DVOA formula for “we hate the coach, we quit”?

    Because that seems to be the most logical explanation for the utter collapse of the Dolphins over the last fortnight. To echo Johonny, Miamis’ biggest issue in the offseason will be finding a credible Head Coach. I’d love Parcells or Marty, but really, do they want the pain of a 4-5 season rebuilding effort?

    :: James, London — 12/12/2007 @ 2:12 pm



  45. Since there are currently 4 3-10 teams, there’s a good chance that strength of schedule will determine who gets the second through fifth picks.

    Going by current strength of schedule (linked in my name) the Jets are the runaway leader in this category, and are all but assured the #2 pick unless they win another game. (It seems the stronger schedule wins this tie breaker).

    The Falcons, ‘Niners, and Rams are in a virtual dead heat, with the Rams and Falcons opponents just one win ahead of the ‘Niners. This will probably change, but if it ends in a dead heat, the Falcons pick third with the worst conference record (2 currently) and the Rams pick ahead of the 49ers (both have 3 conference wins, but the 49ers have all 3 in the division, which is the next tie break).

    So basically, the pick the Patriots own is likely to end up as the 5th pick, unless one of the Falcons, Rams, or Jets manage to win a game. Things could change, but right now the 49ers are the losers of the tiebreakers.

    :: doktarr — 12/12/2007 @ 2:14 pm



  46. 30: Bobby Petrino will be looking for a job in a few weeks. Maybe they can get him.

    :: B — 12/12/2007 @ 2:16 pm



  47. The Eagles are 13th in DVOA, 8th in conventional offense, 10th in conventional defense and I believe they’ve outscored their opponents. Even with their struggles in the red zone, they should be solidly in the playoff hunt. Yet, they’re circling the drain and I’m afraid villagers bearing torches and pitchforks may descend upon McNabb’s home at the next full moon. What the hell is going on?

    :: Harris — 12/12/2007 @ 2:17 pm



  48. 47: Really bad special teams play seems to be disproportionately affecting the Eagles. And it’s a part of the game that’s not usually reflected in traditional stats.

    :: B — 12/12/2007 @ 2:19 pm



  49. 45: You’re wrong, your link goes to SOS LAST year not for this year, Pats likely pick #2, if I did it right see link in my name for current order and Strength of Schedule

    :: Sven — 12/12/2007 @ 2:24 pm



  50. #38:

    I agree, and I have to say, even as a die-hard Pats fan, I was sort of rooting for the Colts when they had that chance to go undefeated in 2005. In fact, I never really cared much for Dungy until he got up there and said, “We’re going to try for 16-0.” (Beats watching Sorgi, for one thing.)

    And I completely agree: If that Colts team had done it, much better them than the 1972 Dolphins, who were very good, but not historically great.

    :: louis — 12/12/2007 @ 2:24 pm



  51. Just a methodology question - how are teams treated in garbage time. For example, how are Colts rated on plays where they benched their starters? (or the Ravens on those plays)

    :: SteveW — 12/12/2007 @ 2:27 pm



  52. #45:
    Interesting how divergent the DVOA and win percentage strength of schedule values are. Top five hardest by DVOA (win/loss rank):
    BUF (24), PHI (10), NE (25), KC (6), NYJ (28)
    Top five easiest by DVOA (win/loss rank):
    SEA (30), NO (3), ARI (19), SF (23), ATL (16)

    :: slo-mo-joe — 12/12/2007 @ 2:29 pm



  53. #39 slo-mo-joe This Colt fan agrees. If we didn’t beat youse in week 8, then I wanted (still do) you to run the table so we get another crack in week 20. The downside of that, for me, is having to listen to so much Pats love from some ignorant folks and the media. (If I ever read Simmons any more ths would be even worse. It would be worth it for Miami to steal some of the glory I am hoping the Colts will capture just to see “Simmons face” when it happens.

    But otherwise, I am so greedy for my own team to win accolades and glory, that I want all their opponents to appear invincible and the ONLY team capable of beating them would be Indy. So good luck. Until week 20. Then… may your team’s Gatorade be laced with laxatives.

    :: Bobman — 12/12/2007 @ 2:30 pm



  54. 47: It’s the curse of Terrell Owens. Look at the 49ers… that is your future, Eagles and Cowboys fans.

    :: fish shure — 12/12/2007 @ 2:31 pm



  55. Re: 38

    This Colts fan is rooting for the Pats to go 17-0 and then lose to the Colts in the AFCCG :o)

    :: turbohappy — 12/12/2007 @ 2:31 pm



  56. #49:
    Duh, I completely missed the “2006″, that explains the divergence in #52.

    :: slo-mo-joe — 12/12/2007 @ 2:32 pm



  57. 45 - I’m pretty sure that the weaker Strength of Schedule drafts higher (meaning earlier). Since draft order is based on the amount of failure from the previous season, it makes sense that the team with the same number of wins against inferior competition would get to pick before the team that was able to ’succeed’ equally against better competition.

    :: David — 12/12/2007 @ 2:34 pm



  58. Since extraordinary individual and/or team achievements are more often generated in unique environments, I am curious what is special about 2007 with respect to the NFL.

    For example, when baseball expanded in 1961 all kinds of players had extraordinary power numbers including players like Norm Cash and Jim Gentile who never repeated those performances.

    So in 2007 we have the Patriots bid for perfection, the Cowboys quietly having one of the best DVOA seasons in recent memory and the Dolphins stinking it up like month old cheese sitting in the sun.

    What’s the deal Camille??

    :: BadgerT1000 — 12/12/2007 @ 2:34 pm



  59. RE: 19 - shanahan/variance

    Maybe, just maybe, this can put a dent in the argument that Variance is first and foremost a product of coaching. Mike Shanahan didn’t forget how to coach this year. He may not be the best coach in the whole league, and he’s not a stellar GM, but he’s a good coach (even if it’s time for him to move on from Denver). People pointed to Jacksonville’s variance last year as a sign that Jack Del Rio was a terrible coach.

    This year, the Jaguars are THE most consistent team in the league. Does that make them the best team, or him the best coach? No. Has he improved, yeah, but not from 32 to 1. I would imagine that injuries, QB changes - really, any personnel changes which the team might need to adjust to, and the players just not playing well in some weeks might have more to do with it.

    Is Randy Moss’s proclivity for getting called for OPI a reflection of Bill Belichick’s ability to coach? No. Penalties and Variance are not, IMO, the best measuring sticks for coaching ability.

    :: sam — 12/12/2007 @ 2:35 pm



  60. #53:
    may your team’s Gatorade be laced with laxatives.
    Eh, that would be a fluke too, wouldn’t it? Have you so little faith in your own team?

    Regardless, you are better off feeding Purds boiled potatoes and rice for a week. His intestinal regularity is the real reason the Pats keep winning. Ask him.

    :: slo-mo-joe — 12/12/2007 @ 2:35 pm



  61. Is it possible to see what the dvoa ratings are just for the last 4 weeks?

    Just wondering where Minnie would rank.

    Lotta people have got DAL-GB carved in stone but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Minnie in the NFC Championship Game.

    :: Mikey — 12/12/2007 @ 2:36 pm



  62. RE #53, I should have referenced #38. My bad.

    :: Bobman — 12/12/2007 @ 2:36 pm



  63. To lend further credence to the “there is no ‘Grossman is our starter’, there is no ‘Greise is our starter’, only a CHICAGO quarterback” theory, Grossman/Griese are ranked 33rd/34th in both DPAR and DVOA. The trifecta would be Orton listed at 35th by week 17. Interestingly, Adrian Petersen & Benson are ranked 47th/49th in DPAR and 50th/46th in DVOA. Maybe there’s also the “CHICAGO RB” theory as well.

    Much of this has to do with the fact that all of these guys have to play behind the “CHICAGO OL.”

    :: TomC — 12/12/2007 @ 2:37 pm



  64. #60, Hey, a win is a win. I’d prefer it to be clean and honorable and all that, but you know, your team is pretty darn good and wishing injury on them is beneath me. Besides, laxitives are funny. Plus you may need help with the running game.

    Sorry, vile joke. Couldn’t resist. And you don’t need help anyway.

    :: Bobman — 12/12/2007 @ 2:39 pm



  65. Harris #47:

    The 2007 Eagles record is what happens when you lose a bunch of 3 and 4 point games (Packers, Bears, Patriots, Seahawks, Giants) where you fail in the redzone at the end of the game or fail at a field goal at the end of the game or muff a punt at the end of a game or play prevent and let the opponent march 97 yards in 57 seconds.

    In other words, change around half a dozen or so close plays, and the Eagles end up 10-3.

    But the real problem is that the Eagles have had just 2 wins by 10 points or more. What they really needed this year was not just a few breaks to make them a flukey 10+ win team, but a consistently better presence in the redzone to make most of their games not be close. Their defense played well enough to allow this, but their offense has not, and it was not helped by a complete lack of turnovers on defense and pitiful special teams for returns.

    :: Andrew — 12/12/2007 @ 2:40 pm



  66. Re: 38

    C’mon, man–wanting the Jets to win this week (for non-Jets fans) would be spiteful Pats-hate. But wanting the Fins to win next week? How often do you see 0-14 beat 14-0? More unlikely than a team going 16-0, I submit!

    That would be historic!

    :: gustav — 12/12/2007 @ 2:43 pm



  67. deflated, #19:
    It has been a roller-coaster year for Broncos fans. I wonder what the variance is, broken down by offense, defense and special teams.

    slo-mo-joe, #38:
    Goes to show just how much dislike Pats fans have raked up, hmm? Unless you think that all the Pats-haters, as you call them, are irrational, you have to recognize that a good chunk of that hatred has been stimulated.

    :: Kaveman — 12/12/2007 @ 2:46 pm



  68. 67:

    That data is available on the individual offense/defense/st pages.

    DENVER:
    10.1% variance on offense (2nd most inconsistent)
    12.2% variance on defense (Most inconsistent)
    3.4% variance on special teams (Most inconsistent)

    :: sam — 12/12/2007 @ 3:35 pm



  69. RE: 49 et al,

    I was looking at both the 2006 and 2007 SoS lists, and mistakenly put in the wrong link. The 2007 link is in my name on this post.

    Moreover, that 2006 link was actually the PROJECTED 2006 SoS based on the 2005 records, and as such is meaningless. It also confused me into thinking that better SoS leads to picking higher, which is incorrect. So the Jets are basically locked into the 5th pick unless somebody wins a game.

    That said, I did have one important thing right about this year. As I said, the 49ers are in a virtual dead head for SoS with the 49ers, Falcons, and Rams, and the 49ers lose subsequent tiebreakers due to winning more conference/division games. At the end of the season, it’s extremely likely that the Rams SoS will be higher due to higher W/L in remaining opponents. So it basically comes down to the Falcons against the 49ers for the second pick. Assuming neither wins another game, of course.

    :: doktarr — 12/12/2007 @ 3:41 pm



  70. Hey, remember when we all thought the Bears had the easiest schedule in the league back before the season started?

    Whoops.

    :: Yinka Double Dare — 12/12/2007 @ 3:42 pm



  71. 68: Wow, Denver is off the charts in inconsistency. Not only are they 1st or 2nd in all three phases, they’ve got an 11 point lead on the #2 team.

    :: B — 12/12/2007 @ 3:45 pm



  72. The huge variance doesn’t surprise me at all for the Broncos.

    I was one of the few that did see the Denver game last week, and the San Diego game which is listed on the worst DVOA games of the year list.

    This team can be one of the top 5 teams in the league…seriously. But they have just flat out underperformed this year, to my great disappointment. The defense in particular has been poor, and once again poor field position has hurt the offense.

    They still have a chance at the playoffs, but it ain’t much of one.

    :: Bronco Jeff — 12/12/2007 @ 3:50 pm



  73. For any of you bettors out there - there is snow and major wind expected in Foxboro on Sunday.

    The Pats should win, but it might not be the revenge blowout everyone seems to be expecting.

    Also, as a Pats fan, I’m scared to death of them going 16-0 and then losing in the playoffs. Just being honest.

    :: Nicky P — 12/12/2007 @ 3:55 pm



  74. # 63. I know. As a season ticket holder, it’s painfully obvious where the rebuilding effort lies. I didn’t think anyone could be worse than Freddy Miller until Terry “The Turnstile” Metcalf started in place of Rueben “One-Armed” Brown.

    :: chip — 12/12/2007 @ 3:59 pm



  75. 38

    That would be because most football fans HATE the Pats. Its not like the Colts, no one hates or hated them. But many of us despise the Pats. I personally root against them in every game. And I take no joy in seeing a team I despise winning like they do. Thats the answer to your question, we don’t get any fun out of watching them. In fact, many people will probably be Pats haters for a long time, just like how people hate the Broncos. I know I will be loving it when the Pats are going 7-9 again. I’ll enjoy embarassing the Pats fans who are probably the worst in football around here. So its just that a team that has so many people sick of them is not gonna be enjoyed by most people except Pats fans.

    As far as the Dolphins, isn’t it just cause they lost their QB (Green), RB (Brown), and top WR (Chambers? That seems like the obvious answer to me. The only reason we haven’t seen this decline earlier is because two of their games after those guys were gone were the MUD games (for lack of a better term) against the Giants and Pitt. The niners look like a much better team right now to me.

    :: thestar5 — 12/12/2007 @ 3:59 pm



  76. Looking at the offensive/defensive charts, it just occured Minnesota-Seattle playoff game would be a pretty strange game: a great passing team (Seattle) v. a team with a great run defense (Minn), and a great runnning team (obviously, Minn) v. a team with a great pass defense. Sort of mirror images of each other. I’m not sure how that would all play out. I’d be tempted to say the running team wins, but I’m not sure I’d take Jackson over Hasselbeck in a game in Seattle …

    :: citizen jason — 12/12/2007 @ 4:03 pm



  77. 75:
    I hate the Colts.

    Also, regarding Variance:
    The other thing with Variance is that it can actually penalize good coaching, insofar as a team which plays badly to begin the season but improves as the season wears on will suffer from a poor variance rating. That’s why the week-to-week DVOA charts are so much more informative IMO than VAR.

    :: sam — 12/12/2007 @ 4:04 pm



  78. Re: 75

    So I’m guessing you would disagree with #38’s characterization of watching the Pats as a ‘priviledge’? Unless, or course, you’re in prison, in which case any TV at all would be a priviledge.

    :: mawbrew — 12/12/2007 @ 4:05 pm



  79. (quoting what at the moment is post #35 - patriotsgirl)

    25: I think DVOA has it dead on with the Giants, and corresponds almost perfectly with the somewhat crude measure of win-loss record.

    Out of their nine wins, four have been against complete disasters: Mia (barely), SF, Atl, and NYJ. They have played four games against teams that currently have winning records: Dal (twice), GB, and Min. They have lost all four (and most were not very close). So, the Giants are 0-4 against good teams; 4-0 against terrible teams, and 5-0 against mediocre-to-bad teams.

    Which means, to me, that they are almost by definition an average team.

    The first problem with this is that DVOA is apparently under the impression that the Eagles are a good team, and the Redskins are averageish. You can’t just flip back and forth between DVOA and raw record whenever it suits your needs.

    Secondly, average teams generally don’t go 5-0 against mediocre to bad teams. Beating *all* of those teams is evidence of goodness.

    Thirdly, the Eagles are 1-4 against good teams, 1-3 against averagish teams and 3-1 against bad teams. So what does that make them?

    Let’s say it makes the Eagles mediocre to bad, which is convienient when you want to dump on the Giants’ strength of schedule. That would put the Giants at three spots *below* mediocre to bad. Does that sound right? Not to me it doesn’t.

    :: Kurt — 12/12/2007 @ 4:12 pm



  80. Methodology question. Did you adjust DVOA for the Noah’s ark game in Pittsburgh? If not, what would happen to the Dolphin and Steeler numbers if you eliminated that game - treating it as a complete fluke? Would the Steelers’ be less variant? Wouldn’t the Dolphins DVOA look more like that of an 0-16 team?

    :: ammek — 12/12/2007 @ 4:16 pm



  81. I think the ‘72 Dolphins WERE a historically great team in that they were part of the ‘71-’73 run of three straight Super Bowl appearances, something almost no team has done. The ‘90-93 Bills had four, I don’t think any other team has had three staight appearances, and of course the Bills didn’t win any. The Dolphins won two of three, dominating the two they one (although they were equally dominated in the one they loss).

    I think the ‘73 Dolphins were actually better. The ‘72 team benefitted from a very easy schedule but suffered from playing their back-up QB most of the year. At that stage of Morrall’s career, I’d say it would be something like Testaverde playing for the Pats this year.

    BTW, I was a Dolphin-hater (Colt fan) at that time - the Fins had been forced to give up a draft pick for tampering with Shula. But they were a great team; don’t let their current annoying behavior obscure that.

    :: mrh — 12/12/2007 @ 4:18 pm



  82. I go back and forth between whether I’d rather have the Vikings, should they not blow their playoff opportunity, play the Bucs or Seahawks. Assumimg Garcia is healthy, I guess I lean towards Seattle. Cedric Griffin seems to have made significant improvement in recent weeks, and the Vikings pass defense in the red zone has never been all that bad. The Vikings offense would have better success against Seattle than they would Tampa, I guess, and I think a hot day in Tampa, which is not impossible in January, would hinder the Vikings more than a bad weather day in Seattle.

    Of course, the Vikings could go out get beat by the Bears on Monday, which would render these judgements rather less relevant.

    :: Will Allen — 12/12/2007 @ 4:20 pm



  83. Yeah, I think the ‘73 Dolphins team was significantly better than their undefeated team.

    :: Will Allen — 12/12/2007 @ 4:24 pm



  84. Re 26, etc (Giants are underrated/no they’re not thread): I’m a Giants fan, but overall I find it hard to take exception with the Giants middling ranking. However, I am a bit skeptical of the standard rationale that the Giants have feasted only on mediocre teams this season, and just barely several times. Indeed, Giants have gone 0-4 against teams in the top 10 DVOA, and 6-0 against the bottom third of the league. But shouldn’t they receive some credit rather than scorn for beating all the teams they should have? Aside from NE, Dallas, and Indy, how many other teams can claim this (even GB has a loss at home to Chicago)? Not that DVOA works this way, but I find it unconvincing when people single out unimpressive Giants wins while cherry picking other teams’ wins in comparison, while neglecting others’ weak performances. After all, ultimately they play 14 of the same 16 opponents as everyone else in the division, and given the widespread mediocrity in the NFC, probably a similar strength of schedule as everyone else in the conference.

    :: Mark Glickman — 12