Go Big Blue

What was Brady's DVOA for this game? DPAR might be held down a little since he had 28 and not 40 passes - not that it was 'low.'

I'm suprised that none of Brady's receivers made it into the top WR category.

what was alexandar's dpar?

Actually Rivers didn't re-injure his knee. He injured his other knee.

I'll agree with the Chambers comment. Almost everytime I see him catch the ball (and I've seen every Chargers game he has played) it is one of 3 types.
1. TD Catch (no YAC)
2. Deep Pass along sideline, pushed out of bounds (no YAC)
3. Beats the zone but is surrounded by three defenders (unless he makes the most amazing juke move ever, No YAC)

Everyone was above average? Like Lake Woebegone?

The NFL finally got what it's been trying for: all offense and no defense. Since linemen no longer hold, and defensive backs aren't allowed to breath on receivers, the only point of trying to play defense is the occasional sack.

I hope something is done to correct this because I want to watch NFL football, not Arena, but I'm not holding my breath.

The Clark comment makes me wonder something about DPAR/DVOA. When you make opponent adjustments, do you use the overall strength of the pass defense or the strength of the defenses performance against specific receiver types? This could make a pretty big difference against a few teams. For instance, Oakland has an above average overall pass defense but is fantastic against #1's and horrible against other receivers.

Do these figures mean that Rivers had a higher DVOA than Brady? Rivers had 12.9 in 19 pass attempts (12.9/19=.68), while Brady had 16.8 in 28 attempts (16.8/28=.6).

Tom D:

I find it amusing that you believe defensive backs aren't allowed to play tight coverage when during the game thread of the Packer/Seahawks some fans were complaining regularly about the officials not calling penalties.

Anyway, thanks for the ironic chuckle.

New England is tops in run efficiency because every team is absolutely ignoring the run in an attempt to stop the pass. If they didn't lead the league in run efficiency with this kind of pass offence it would be more of a story.

Unless NE loses Moss, Stallworth and or Welker and are forced to move the ball running without the threat of the greatest passing attack in history, we won't really be able to judge how well they can actually run the ball.

Offensive holding or lack thereof doesn't explain the abysmal tackling on display all weekend. Except for the Giants in the second half, a Pop Warner team would have been ashamed to play defense like these teams.

BadgerT1000 - I find the way the Packers db's play pass defence intriguing. They are clearly far more aggressive than any other team I've watched. They seem very willing to accept the trade off of more pass interference and illegal bumps. It strikes me as excellent strategy to push the envelope of a rule.

I imagine it must be really frustrating as a Packer fan at times when you think you've got a stop and out pops the dreaded 5 yards and a first down. On the whole though, how do you think the db's and the aggressive strategy is working?

Jimm:

Given the choice between acting and reacting I will take the former.

I also think that by "setting the tone" early in the season refs have become more accepting as the season wore on though I have not checked to validate that perception.

The exception being Bigby. Dragging receivers to the ground is a tad overt.

To follow up on Badger's comments, it does seem like the defensive holds and PIs have relaxed later in the season. Part of that may be perception and timing though: calls on 1st down or in games where GB is winning handily are easier to shrug off than calls on 3rd down in close games, and there were a few of those early on. In particular, late in the first game against Minnesota I think Holcomb decided to not worry about completing passes and just threw a few passes at receiver immediately after the snap to covert legal jams into PI (at least that's what it felt like watching that game).

Another thing to consider is that Packers fans are only a few years removed from the Ahmad Carroll experience (all the holding and illegal contact penalties, none of the pass coverage), so the current situation is an improvement over what we had learned to expect.

10: DPAR & DVOA have different baselines, but the article said Rivers' DVOA was higher than Brady's.

I'm confused by the Favre comment. Like you said, five of his six third-down completions were with 6, 7, or 8 yards to go. I'd have expected, with the way the Packers were running (and the fact that Favre had only four incompletions while the game was competitive), to see third-and-shorter.

I don't think three yards on two plays is particularly strong evidence of a good running game. I continue to be intrigued, however, by the reasons for teams' repeated success on third-and-medium or -long this weekend (especially in relation to why they needed to convert third-and-long in the first place).

14: As was said in the discussion thread, Mike McCarthy has taken a very soft line on penalties, especially interference and holding. He seems to regard it as the price to pay for aggressive defense. This is a contrast with, say, Holmgren, whom you would see laying into one of his players for the same misdemeanour.

I think it is going to bite the Packers on the nose. The roughing-the-punter call on Saturday was almost an example -- if the Seahawks hadn't chosen to run Alexander in the red zone later on the drive, the penalty might have changed the complexion of the game.

Against New England, for example, making a stop then having it overturned by such a penalty could be critical.

This confirms what my eyes told me during the game. Romo played a decent game, but the rest of the team let him down. He's going to get a lot of s*** this offseason, and he really won't deserve it.
I was, however, pleasantly shocked to see TO defend him. I thought for sure that this would be the moment for Owens to turn on Romo.

17,20: Thanks guys. I skipped over that thinking it was a standard quick explanation of DPAR and DVOA. Sorry about that.

"Manning plays well"

....hmmmmm....

He had a high DPAR, but threw 48 times. The other Manning generated DPAR at about the same rate. Not bad play by big brother, but I wouldn't say it was especially noteworthy for anything but number of plays.

Why not show DVOA if you are going to talk about it?

ammek:

If Jackson doesn't slip on his way to the punter he doesn't crash into the guy and earn the penalty.

Ultimately, McCarthy wants his guys to be AGGRESSIVE. Not Forrest Gregg, fly out of control, act stupid aggressive. But get on your guy, try and force the action aggressive. With a young team the risk is that these guys are still learning the plays, themselves and adjusting to the speed of the game. One hopes that as the players become more experienced they will maintain the aggressiveness but channel it properly.

Of course, this doesn't explain the Al Harris/Charles Woodson Flagapalooza. In that respect I think McCarthy and Sanders have weighed the risk/reward and decided to roll the dice. I think it is also true that if Harris and Woodson were instructed to rein it in a bit you would see their overall play diminish. Woodson's willingness to throw his body around on running plays continues to surprise me. I don't think anybody on the coaching staff wants to lost THAT. So they accept the penalty every so often in return for those two guys beating the living sh*t out of most receivers. Who don't like it.

Don't like it at ALL.

I'm not sure that I agree that Marion Barber is such a great addition as a starting running back. Yes, he is a beast to tackle. Yes, he runs more explosively than Julius Jones, hitting holes faster and with greater power. Clearly, he's a better runner.

In the second half against the Giants, however, he seemed to me to be a drive killer, having several critical failures in pass blocking that left Romo exposed. Romo converted some of those pressures into sacks, some into incompletes, and a couple into completions, but Barber was one of the worst pass blocking backs that I've seen in a while.

Has anyone who has done game charting seen that this year, or did he simply have the appearance of a bad game?

"So, can we now all agree that Marion Barber should be the starting running back for Dallas in 2008? And why did we all realize Barber should be starting before Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett did?"

Are we really not sharper than the talking heads and not sophisticated enough to look at who got more carries rather than the "starter" label when claiming we're smarter than the coaches? The mistake the Cowboys staff made Sunday was being too clever and forgetting why they give Julius Jones carries instead of running Barber into the ground. As a result, Barber was exhausted and ineffective when the game was in the balance.

Didn't we know back in 2005 that Marion Barber should be Dallas' starting RB?

Re: PI banter

Off the top of my head I forget which thread it was, but towards the end we started on a (friendly, kind-hearted) tangent about how we'd most like to see NE lose. Well, I think I just found my answer. If NE loses because GB's CBs completely man-handle their WRs (ala NE's CBs in the 2003 AFCCG) I may just die of a explosive joygasm.

I like the phrase "explosive joygasm."

> As a result, Barber was exhausted and ineffective when the game was in the balance.

I'm not at all convinced of this. It looked to me as if the Giants made the necessary adjustments and/or the Cowboys just weren't executing as well in the running game. I don't know why Barber would be so exhausted immediately after halftime (16 carries, 101 yards in the first half; 11 carries, 28 tards second half). Barber was almost completely shut down from the start of the second half, not just by the fourth quarter or anything like that.

#20 "I was, however, pleasantly shocked to see TO defend him. I thought for sure that this would be the moment for Owens to turn on Romo."

I have to say, after watching the performance by TO (and using his past as a reference), I can't help but think he was being subtle in throwing Romo under the bus (my 80 yr old grandmother does the same time back handed defenses of people). He mentioned how unfair it would be to blame Romo for the vacation, etc., etc., etc. He brought these up before the media did. Maybe I am being a little too cynical, but given the fact that he has thrown his last 2 QBs under the bus (contrary to his tear declaration otherwise), I think it was a back handed defense of Romo.

> I think it was a back handed defense of Romo.

So the tears were fake? I don't think so. TO may be an emotional nutcase, but that defense of Romo looked real to me...

"Did anybody notice how little Eli Manning did in the second half of this game?"

Although, to be fair, Little Eli Manning is about 4" taller than Wee Brooks Bollinger.

> "I don't know why Barber would be so exhausted immediately after halftime... Barber was almost completely shut down from the start of the second half, not just by the fourth quarter or anything like that."

He had 21 yards in the opening drive of the 2nd half.

He had 21 yards in the opening drive of the 2nd half.

On six carries, though. 3.5 YPC is still a big drop from his first-half production.

35 - I couldn't agree with you more. And the decline only steepened as they gave him more carries than he'd had all season. They don't take a 2-hour nap at halftime. I'd be surprised if halftime ran longer than the Cowboys' Barber-intensive drive that preceded it.

It'd be a stretch to say that Romo played a "good" game. He was solid in the 1st half and on their first 3rd qrtr possession but after that he didn't do anything.

His 4th quarter line was 6 of 15 for 81 yds and a pick. I think this is a case where his relatively high DPAR is not indicative of his actual performance.

Barber being better than Jones is *such an old story.* What, did they finally start putting games on TV in January, 2008?

I don't think the Jennings/Driver touchdown spread is that strange - Jennings is a much younger and far more dangerous after the catch, and therefore is getting into the end zone on many plays where Driver would be tackled.

> I couldn’t agree with you more. And the decline only steepened as they gave him more carries than he’d had all season.

Nonetheless, even if Barber was experiencing some fatigue in the second half, I suspect that if not for that crazy end-of-half drive by the Giants aided in no small part by the big facemask penalty (with penalties being the Cowboys' biggest avoidable problem for the entire game, imo), the headlines the next day would have read: "Barber Bulls Cowboys to Victory (coaching staff credited with handing ball to Barber and getting out of way)".

Seriously, elsewise what more would you have wanted from the Barber/Jones combination? Spread the carries out and come away with 250 yards rushing? The game doesn't work that way; you take what you can get from whom you can get it (perhaps as opposed to the regular season, there being no tomorrow).

How to factor quarterback meltdown into DPAR? Seattle received the kickoff to start the second half, trailing 28-17. A scoring drive gets them back in the game. After a first down run gets stuffed, Hasselbeck throws a little 8 yard in route incompletion, then starts screaming at the ref for a hold on Woodson. On third down, Hasselbeck throws deep on a fly route. Al Harris is step for step with the receiver and knocks it away. Hasselbeck again starts screaming at the officials. Game over, I told my fellow Packer fans watching the game with me, on the third play of the second half. Similarly, Romo caved to pressure in the last couple of drives, yelling at his linemen and fretting about. How to factor that into the ratings of the most important position?

Re: Barber

FOX had a shot of Dallas's huddle during the run of penalties on their next-to-last drive, and Barber was doubled over, trying to catch his breath.

"you take what you can get from whom you can get it"

Agreed. And when you try to take more, you get diminishing returns. I don't know anything about presumed headlines or where the 250 yards rushing came from. I suggested Barber was fatigued because to me he didn't look like his usual formidable self as the game went on. Obviously there's no way for me to know, so you may have been right to dismiss my notion.

Fourth Quarter Marion didn't look like Fourth Quarter Marion. Maybe because he was so busy being First Half Marion. He looked cramped up on some of his 2nd half runs. I think he was shot. But maybe that has more to do with Wade Phillips and his soft camp and practices. Whatever. I think the original point was (another) Aaron Schatz strawman. Who wasn't agreeing Barber should start? A couple crackpots? So what.

10: From the fifth paragraph on that page: “To give an example, the best quarterback per play (what we call DVOA) was Philip Rivers, not Tom Brady.”

Oh sure, this from the same Vince Verhei that once predicted something that didn't come true and is known to eat babies. Everybody knows that DVOA is fixed to produce this particular outcome vis-a-vis Brady and Manning. Zippy the Pinhead for President.

Just taking these new comment thread rules for a test-drive.

Oh sure, this from the same Vince Verhei that once predicted something that didn’t come true and is known to eat babies. Everybody knows that DVOA is fixed to produce this particular outcome vis-a-vis Brady and Manning. Zippy the Pinhead for President.

Just taking these new comment thread rules for a test-drive.

:: TomC — 1/15/2008 @ 2:26 pm

Awesome...

Re: 44
Considering this was the first (and only) game Barber started all season, I'd say there was at least one significant person who insisted that Jones should be the started. I'll give you a hint, his name rhymes with Dade Bilips.

Re: 45
I guess that's what Aaron gets for not opening up that thread for comments. ;-)

44 (azibuck): "Whatever. I think the original point was (another) Aaron Schatz strawman. Who wasn’t agreeing Barber should start? A couple crackpots? So what."
Except that the fact was that Barber wasn't starting, so Aaron had a valid point. The "crackpots" were the ones in charge of who started, namely Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips. So when Aaron makes a comment about people finally realizing Barber should start, he's more referring to the actual men who make the decision, not fans and analysts.

#48, Poppycock. Look at what Aaron wrote. He's making sure we all agree Barber should start in 2008. Well, duh, considering Jones is a UFA, doesn't want to come back, and isn't wanted back. I mean, I tried to believe my eyes that Barber has been better for a while now, but it wasn't until Aaron Schatz, a lone voice in the wilderness, showed how much more productive Barber is, that I truly believed. I watched every game, but had no idea until I took my lying eyes off the TV and put them on DEVO. Er, VOIDOID, or whatever.

49: In comment 44, you say that Aaron's making a strawman argument, yet here you are in comment 49 making one. Where does Aaron say that he's the only one who thought Barber was more productive all along? In fact, in comment 44 you insinuate that only a few "crackpots" didn't think Barber was better. Which is it?
Maybe Aaron should have written "I, along with many other people of varying backgrounds, believe that Marion Barber is a better back than Julius Jones and should be starting in Dallas next year." All he did was try to put some flair in his writing - and that flair is what keeps me coming back here to read more articles. The metrics are nice, and interesting, but the individual writers' humor and insight is far better. I may not always agree, but do I always want to agree with what someone says? That's pretty boring.
I can tell from this thread and previous ones you're not sold on DVOA and DPAR. That's fine, neither am I. But don't go attacking Aaron for stating his opinion in what he had hoped was a humorous and/or entertaining way.

This is all well and good, but what we really want to know is when is jimmo going to post the scores for the BOTR teams?

(I justify including this comment in this thread by virtue of the fact that the anti-spam word is "scramble".)

The Barber/Jones who should start thing doesn't take into account the fact that despite the fact that Jones was the nominal starter, Barber got more carries than Jones in the regular season, although not by much.

Eddo, humorous and entertaining? I find much of the writing condescending and self-important. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy some of what I read here, perhaps much of what I read. I could just do without the relentless self back-patting. And in this case, perhaps I've read into it, because I am reading it, "can we now all agree (WITH ME/FO/DVOA)..." Considering the past history of what I perceive as self-flagellation, that's how I read it.
And the shot at DVOA or any other stat was that, in many cases, but this one especially, I don't need a single number to know Barber is better. I know Aaron didn't say it, but it's implied all over this site.

53: I just don't see any back-patting there...particularly given that the second sentence assumes that the audience all came to the same realization he did: "And why did we all realize Barber should be starting before Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett did?"

I thought it was pretty clear that Aaron was calling Phillips and Garrett out for being the outliers who didn't see something else that everyone else saw, which is kind of the diametric opposite of back-patting.

Also, I don't think self-flagellation is the word you're looking for. It seems that you'd like the Outsiders to self-flagellate more, not less...:)

Not where I'm from.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=flagellation

damn u markb beat me to the lake woebegone joke

"Oh sure, this from the same Vince Verhei that once predicted something that didn’t come true and is known to eat babies. Everybody knows that DVOA is fixed to produce this particular outcome vis-a-vis Brady and Manning. Zippy the Pinhead for President.

Just taking these new comment thread rules for a test-drive."

What I find even more surprising is how *anyone* would ever get the idea that some FO fans are of the "holier then thou, we are the smartest fans in the world and if you don't agree with our ideas you must be a moron", type mentality. I have no idea where that might come from.

Re: 42

The shot of Barber in the huddle can be found here.