ARRGH! My vote for "Hole in Zone" as most underrated defensive player was wasted!

Gostkowski should win hands-down for "most underrated by his own coach." But that coach is also coach of the year. And paper covers rock.

Kif, we have a conundrum.

"No doubt that Peterson was the NFL’s highlight reel champ in 2007, but who would you rather have if you were building a team?"
.
Uhm... Peterson.

2:
If we can hit that bull's-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards...Checkmate.

Devin Hester getting that many votes as "overrated" is a joke. Makes me wonder what sport people are watching.

My hat is off to the individual who voted for "Amy Winehouse". And to whoever claimed ROBO-PUNTER is over-rated:

Woe unto you!

#3: I don't know that you ever want to build a team around a RB, no matter how good. A good Left Tackle is worth more than any other position but QB. Running backs have significantly shorter careers, are highly dependent on their blocking, and in general are considered to be interchangeable more than any other position.

It is also much harder to get a good Left Tackle than a good RB. Men who weigh over 300 pounds and run around a 5 second 40 yard dash are extremely rare.

RoboPunter is neither over- nor under-rated. RoboPunter simply is.

Blessed be his name.

5, I voted for Hester. Teams absolutely should kick to Hester every time. And I'm not just saying that because my Giants have (the extremely overrated) Jeff Feagles.

#2, 4 - Many thanks. I've been going through withdrawal ever since CN's contract expired.

Adrian Peterson is a phenom. I'd agree that "average" running backs are fungible, but Peterson is already the 2nd best back next to LT. The guy had zero pass threat and was running against stacked boxes.

How many posters actually watched Joe Thomas instead of just voting for him because the importence of the position?

I am glad that Leroy Hill got some love as the most underrated defensive player. I voted for him and if he wasn't next to Lofa and Peterson people would be talking about how beast he is.

D.Hall is still the most overrated defensive player. He gets burned for 3tds and people still refer to him as "shut down".

None of my underrated special teams guys made it. Chase blackburn on coverage, James Thrash on coverage, Steve Breaston was a very good returner for Arizona and Rock Cartwright was a good return man for the skins.

If New England goes 10-6 and wins the Superbowl, does that count as a decline?

On the underrated offensive player vote, I always try to vote for someone that doesn't even make it among the top "underrated" players.

This year, it was C Samson Satele of the Dolphins.

Do we really need to make a distinction between 'Keep Choppin' Wood' and 'Keep Choppin' Game Film'? Shouldn't they both be called KCW? I mean, sure, it was Hanson who chopped off his foot, but it was Del Rio who put a sharpened axe inside crowded locker room. Let's give credit where credit is due - I think they each deserve 50% credit for that incident.

Incidentally, does Bobby Petrino deserve an entirely new category for pre-meditated conduct most detrimental to the team?

"Incidentally, does Bobby Petrino deserve an entirely new category for pre-meditated conduct most detrimental to the team?"

The Nick Saban Award?

Re: 10

Same here. Trying to watch it at 9EST on Comedy Central just doesn't feel right.

BTW, my handle in Team Fortress 2 is "Sweet Juicy Justice".

Re: 14

Zing!!

9 - OK, and teams don't kick to Hester, yet he breaks NFL TD return records despite that. I guess he's not breaking enough records to satisfy the FO voters. He'll have to work on that.

10 (Independent George): Futurama was picked up by Comedy Central recently. So if you get Comedy Central, you can check for when it's on the air. :)
---
5 (Jordy): I think Hester gets votes because, although he's the best, he is hyped non-stop by the media, potentially overvaluing KRs/PRs and therefore overrating him. That being said, I would never vote for him; he singlehandedly keeps the Bears competitive in games by forcing their opponents to change strategies.
(On a side note, I remember telling my Dad that Hester could go out this year (2007), average 35+ yards per kick return and 15+ yards per punt return, and pretty much have the single greatest year a returner could have, but only score 0-2 touchdowns, and the media would consider it a disappointment. I also noted that there was "no way" someone could repeat what he did in 2006. Oops.)

There is 1 thing that makes no sense regarding Petrino that never gets mentioned

1- Petrino supposedly was hated by almost everyone in the organization

2- Almost everyone was upset when he left

If he truly was as bad as everyone thought they should have been ecstatic when he left. Instead everyone was whining over how he was a traitor and abandoned them. Even if he left during the middle of the year it is best to remove the problem as early as possible rather than holding onto them for longer periods of time

18: Hester benefits a lot from the Bears' league-best return teams. He gets better blocks than anyone. He also fumbles more than he should. Third, he doesn't get as consistently good field position as some other return men, but he makes up for it with the home run threat.

I'd vote for about a dozen kickers, Shane Lechler, Jeff Feagles, and a few more guys before I'd even begin to consider voting for Hester as overrated, but there are some legitimate reasons to say he is.

9, No team should have kicked to Hester this year. I'd rather give the Bears offense with a suspect QB, no running game, and penalty prone OL the ball on the 40 than give Hester and the best special teams in the league the opportunity to beat me.

Michael Strahan? Overrated? Really? The guy got snubbed for the Pro Bowl.

I may be a Giants fan, but I disagree wholeheartedly with people calling Tony Romo overrated. Sure, he may prove that label correct if TO hits a production wall, but the guy torched the NFL for most of the regular season. He only played one of his two playoff losses in two years poorly -- this year he looked okay, okay, okay, and awful in four respective quarters -- but last year he played a fine game... minus a botched snap. That is not something we judge QBs on anyway, especially since Romo drove his team into position for that FG try anyway.

Thus far, Romo looks legit.

And I hate saying that. Hate it. Hate it so very much.

Also I'd give Jerry Reese the nod for Executive of the Year because of his absurd draft. Blasted by punditry everywhere as mediocre and producing no players who will help the team this year, Reese wound up selecting 6 players in 8 rounds who made significant contributions and a 7th player who made an impact on special teams. Considering two of those most important players were 7th rounders (Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Johnson), that is an incredible haul.

7: totally agree. exchange adrian peterson with...oh, i don't know, kevin jones, and see how they each look.

1: Mine too! Can he get some kind of honorary award, or something? I was looking forward to that writeup.

Hmmm... there should be a "running up the score" deduction on DPAR.

Also, Brian Westbrook was first-team All-Pro this year. I love the guy, but it's hard to see that as underrated.

9.7% Kelley Washington (coverage, NE)
9.1% Stephen Gostkowski (K, NE)

I am guessing that 20% of the people who voted were Pats fans then.

How the hell is a player who broke an NFL record in his rookie year and then broke his own record in his second year despite almost every team he played against emptying the barrel in trying to keep the ball away from him over-rated?

He has a farcical impact on the game for a return man. I guess it shows that 10% of the people who voted in this poll are idiots.

The second and third paragraphs of my earlier post (#27) were about Devin Hester. Apologies for any confusion caused.

Tony Romo gets tagged as overrated because he gets away with a lot of terrible decisions. The only guy who's been able to do that and win consistently is Favre. We won't know whether Romo is the successor to His Lordship or Aaron Brooks until T.O. retires(though John Madden and Peter King are standing by with six gallons of ThroatCoat tea and a dozen X-tra Sof brand kneepads just in case).

Romo and TO as most overrated offensive players in ALL OF FOOTBALL the last two years?

Anti-cowboys bias among fans is as rancid as ever, though it's no surprise. Given how Cowboys fans routinely vote undeserving players into the pro bowl, I can't completely say it's unfair though.

I think Westbrook is def underrated. If you ask 100 people "Who is the best RB in football?" you won't get many people fingering Westbrook, but he just might be.

I think my pick for underrated was Westbrook, but now I'm thinking it might be Clinton Portis. Conventional wisdom seems to say that he's lost a step and is now just an average back in a mediocre offense, but he's as important to that offense as Westbrook is to his. And he's the best pass blocking back in football.

Surprised not to see Vernon Davis on the Breakout list - he managed a league-average year with arguably the worst supporting cast of any tight end in football, in this his second season. Then again, that cast will be back, but who expects Darrell Jackson to be this god-awful again?

20 (Yaguar):
Hester benefits a lot from the Bears’ league-best return teams. He gets better blocks than anyone.
From footballoutsiders.com:
Bears Special Teams DVOA (rating (rank))
2003: +2.9% (5)
2004: +1.9% (11)
2005: -2.7% (27)
2006: +7.6% (1)
2007: +9.1% (1)
Years with Hester as primary returner are in italics.
So there was a noticeable improvment in their special teams when the Bears drafted Hester. Now, that might not necessarily be due to Hester, but it could be. And while I agree that they block better than most teams, I sometimes wonder if it's a chicken-and-egg situation; does Hester look better because of the blocking, or does the blocking look better because of Hester? Most likely, there's a synergy between the two.
---
He also fumbles more than he should.
From pro-football-reference.com:
Devin Hester
2006: 67 returns, 8 fumbles (every 8.4 returns)
2007: 85 returns, 7 fumbles (every 12.1 returns)
Josh Cribbs
2007: 89 returns, 5 fumbles (every 17.8 returns)
So Cribbs is better, but not by a whole lot. Also to note, I'm not sure if muffed punts are classified as returns or not. Also, Hester is improving at knowing when to actually field a punt, as noted by the numbers and by subjective observation.
Overall, I think the fumbling-too-much issue is a little overblown. I'd also bet that muffed punt fumbles are recovered by the fumbling team at a higher rate than normal fumbles; however, I do not have that information.
---
Third, he doesn’t get as consistently good field position as some other return men, but he makes up for it with the home run threat.
I can't really argue that, although I wonder if it's better to have a home run threat at KR/PR, rather than consistency. As Aaron (or maybe a commenter) noted in his "Should teams kick to Hester?" article, while over the long run, a more consistent return man is better, football games consist of a finite number of plays and possessions, so one touchdown may be worth trading for -5 yards of field position on every possession. This also may even mean that it's worth it for a home run threat to give up a few more fumbles. Obviously, I'd like to see some more research done on the subject (and I may do it myself if I have the time and resources :) ).

Jimmy,

I think you do not have to be a Pats fan to admit that Gostkowski is "under-rated". Gostkowski is the best current example that I can think of of a kicker who is average (i.e. "adequate") at kicking FG's but has (usually) phenomenal range and placement at kickoffs. One reason why the Patriots defense looked as good as it did this year, despite being kind of over the hill, was that opposing teams almost never got to start with good field position, and a lot of that was Gostkowski's doing (and, of course, also their kick coverage, especially Kelly Washington).

But in the mainstream media, kickers that have made a couple of highly publicized "clutch" pressure kicks (e.g. Cleveland's Dawson) get a lot of press for being great kickers. FO has shown that FG accuracy is wildly random from year to year, and hence an "above average" FG kicker is probably actually just a lucky FG kicker, but kickoff distance is a repeatable skill, and so a kicker who consistently has long, powerful, well placed kickoffs is underrated.

Incidentally, other people have hypothesized this, but I wouldn't be surprised if Gostkowski was injured or for some other reason "off" in the SB. After his first KO, almost all of his subsequent kickoffs were uncharacteristically bad...one going out of bounds, and most of the rest much shorter and with less hangtime than was usual for him. It would also explain why Belichick seemed to be eschewing FG attempts (going for 4th and 13 instead of trying a 49 yarder, and playing for the Hail Mary in the final 30 seconds instead of trying to move into FG range).

My vote for most underrated defensive player was Hunter Hillenmeyer. I don't know if he actually is, but he is the most underrated for the Bears.

One thing to add to Hester, his returns don't get consistent field position, but opposing teams are so afraid of him that he still delivers consistent field position due to short kickoffs, and directional punts.

I also think he is the best return man ever, so I don't know if he can be overrated. Can Peyton Manning be overrated? Or Jerry Rice? Or Orlando Pace?

Does anybody still think Ray Lewis is a great player anymore? My sense is that he's rated just about right: way past his prime but still a moderately effective player.

#18 - it's just not the same. It's on too early for me to watch, and, maybe I'm imagining things, but it alwasys seemed like CN got Futurama in a way that CC doesn't. Their promos were often almost as good as the show itself. It made sense nestled amidst the likes of Birdman and ATHF on Adult Swim.

Overrated/underrated is a tough category because it's really more about subjective meta-perception than it is about objective performance. It's possible for somebody to be a legit superstar, and still be overrated (Romo/Hester) because of the media coverage, and it's equally possible for someone to be underrated & underappreciated while an All-Pro (Westbrook).

I don't like "negative voting", eg for Haynesworth because the Titans' D is worse when he's out. I don't watch the Titans enough to know, but there are several plausible explanations for a defense to decline when it is missing one player. For instance, when Charles Woodson missed the game in Dallas, the Packers tried to employ an unfamiliar zone defense, which confused the heck out of youngsters like Bigby and Bush. Accordingly, the secondary had its worst game of the season, but the difference cannot be calculated as simply "minus Woodson".

34: Referring to the "rest" of Gostkowski's kickoffs in the SB is misleading. After the opening kickoff he only had 2 others. One OOB, and one resulting in the Giants starting at their own 17.

i votedf ro andre johnson for underrated offensive player. the man is top of the class for WRs in the league, but he doesnt do the grandstanding of ocho cinco and doesnt have the mouth nor the QBs that Moss and Owens have. When he went out, the O suffered. If Schaub stays healthy next season and the Texans find a Rb, I can see Johnson leadign that offense to a 3rd place finish in their division. I think he also suffers from playing in Houston, which is not a Northeast media darling and is overshadowed by the Cowboys in their own state.

Re #39
Teams were able to run the ball successfully on the Titans up the middle when Haynesworth was not playing. Teams were generally not able to do so when he was playing. It wasn't a scheme issue.

I'd also argue that any time a coordinator has to significantly change his gameplan to account for the absence of a player, that should be regarded as an indication that said player is probably pretty good.

Is it really still possible for Roy Williams to be overrated? I know he made the PB as an alternate, but every semi informed fan seems to know he sucks, and Dallas fans want him cut.

under rated? How about Leon Washington.. the guy pulls off some amazing feats behind an offensive line made out of whip cream. . . his avg. is pretty darn good too, so it isn't just his explosive kick returns.

He might just be a breakout player next year, especially if the Jets can improve that pathetic offensive line.

i voted for andre johnson for most underrated, too. another player who's value was magnified when he was out of the lineup (iknow there are other factors when that occurs). but he just hasn't been hyped yet, and when he plays a whole season with a competent QB he will break out and could end up as a pro bowl staple.

33: You've essentially conceded my 2nd and 3rd points as being legitimate. Let me further defend the first one, that the Bears have excellent special teams blocking. Obviously, my primary evidence is from watching Bears games and seeing Hester run through ridiculous gaping holes that aren't present for most other returners. I'll try to make some numbers-based arguments too, though.

You cited the 2005 special teams DVOA for the Bears to show that they were bad on special teams before they got Hester. The better measure would be the specific ratings for punt and kick returns. The monster improvement in special teams in 2006 also had a lot to do with Robbie Gould having a career year.

The point in Hester's favor is that the Bears had below-average returns in 2005. However, that's entirely attributable to Bobby Wade, who had an astonishing 10 fumbles on about 40 returns. The guy couldn't field a punt if his life depended on it. On one of the punts where he actually managed to field the ball and not drop it, he scored an easy TD. The blocking was solid even then.

Brendon Ayanbadejo is a great, great all-purpose special teams guy and has made the Pro Bowl twice in a row for it. Hester does have a great supporting cast.

But let me make myself clear: I believe Hester is the greatest return man in the history of the game. And statistically, he blows the other all-time greats out of the water. But I don't believe he's as far ahead of the pack as his statistics would indicate.

The equivalent argument is "Jerry Rice isn't quite as good as his statistics look because he had Joe Montana and Steve Young throwing to him." We get this sort of argument a lot when a particular unit of a football team puts together an all-time-great accomplishment - everyone in that unit has to be really good.

i just have to say that i love FO readers for voting for joe thomas as rookie of the year- that shows a level of sophisticated football knowledge that the general public doesn't have. i also like that patrick willis got some votes, he had a great season, too (as did peterson, of course- nothing against him). there probably should be a separate defensive rookie of the year award, though.

Couglhlin not getting much love on the coaching award.

43. yes, i think it is fair to put roy williams on the overrated list- he has made 4 straight pro bowls and tv announcers still talk about him like he's a premier safety, which, as you say, most knowledgable people know is hogwash.

I think one of my favorite things about this site is the way it recognizes worthy players - often on bad teams - who otherwise don't get much press. I still remember how we 'discovered' Adrian Wilson - it was buried in a writeup on Ronde Barber and DB tackles on runs vs. passes. The name 'A. Wilson, ARI' kept popping up at the top of the charts, and somebody in the comments attentively asked, "Who the heck is this A. Wilson guy?". And now we know.

Now, if only somebody could tell me how to pronounce Nnamdi Asomugha, I'd be a happy camper.

As a Broncos fan I am happy people think Cutler is going to break out, but how? He was already top 10 in DPAR, had an entire new offense from last year and had the Broncos in the top 10. Hasnt he already broke? With Sheffler less hurt, Walker less hurt, and hopefully Marshall improving, he could put up bigger numbers, but I think that that will be having better teammates, not breaking out.

Granted, he only barely won the award, but I still think he is as broken as he is going to get.

So if Tom brady is standing at the edge of the water and RoboPunter is walking on the water, does the sea part for Brady?

@20

He doesn't get as good field position? That's completely untrue. By virtue of possessing the home run threat that you mentioned in your post, the Bears consistently get good field position because teams are scared of him.

48. Excluding the postseason was listed in the directions for the voting. He probably shoots up the list a few slots if it's included.

7#

Completely agree about the value of a LT versus a RB. A running back, no matter how much of an impact player he is, is only one serious knee injury away from never being the same, or retiring completely. The media hype surrounding Peterson could be pushing him in the "overrated" category very soon.

33#
Overall, I think the fumbling-too-much issue is a little overblown. I’d also bet that muffed punt fumbles are recovered by the fumbling team at a higher rate than normal fumbles; however, I do not have that information.

I'd respectfully disagree with this point. If the returner muffs a punt, its him vs. the coverage team at trying to recover it, which in general are not good odds. You may be right in terms of raw totals, but the impact of a lost fumble on a punt is huge. That's a 40-50 yard swing in field position after the defense just got a stop. I don't see how the risk of that kind of play happening could ever be overblown.

(Beating a dead horse) And who the heck thought Tony Ugoh was one of the two best lineman in the leauge this year? I have no problem at all with Joe Thomas winning this category, but Ugoh? Really?

46: I watched a lot of Bears games this year, and while Hester does have good holes, some of them are as much him as they are his blocking. There are holes that he's fast enough to hit and get through that other players just can't reach.

Like you said, it's related--both parts of the unit make each other look better.

So if Tom brady is standing at the edge of the water and RoboPunter is walking on the water, does the sea part for Brady?

Wins the thread.

I don't get why special team players that make the pro bowl can't be included as underrated in this category, but Brian Westbrook can win another underrated category. Seems like they make the rules up as they go along.

54 - I kind of figured that, but was too lazy to figure it all out myself.

So a rookie is the Best lineman in football? For the second year in a row? I absolutely agree Thomas deserved to be ROY but theres no way a rookie lineman can be the best at his position. I thought we had learned from McNeil's drop off this year.

By the way calling Hester overrated is equally ridiculous. I'm glad to see people defending him. He's also my vote for breakout player of 08. As reciever.

This might be treading on dangerous ground, but I see voting for Belichick for Coach of the Year in much the same way as voting for Merriman for DMVP last year. I'll leave it at that.

re: 37

I'm not sure why Ray Lewis is considered overrated. His physical skills have certainly declined, but I would still rank him athletically as above average.

But where FO readers are way off is understanding his value to the defense. Just watch the Ravens games when he is playing and injured and you'll see two completely different defenses. He is the one responsible for putting guys in the right places to make plays and calling audibles to counteract what the QB is doing (see the Seattle game for a great example of how poorly the Ravens adjust to audibles without Ray).

More than any other defensive player he is the QB of the defense, which has been top rated for a very long time. All it takes to notice this is watching Ravens games, which obviously the people who voted for Ray Lewis didn't do.

It’s difficult to know what to say about Belichick at this point with so much still unknown, except that we’re pretty sure he’s never injected anything into Roger Clemens’ butt.

Absolutely hilarious. I know people like to write LOL a lot, but I always wonder how it is people can so readily laugh out loud sitting by themselves staring at a computer screen. Do they have richer inner lives than I do? Poorer? Anyway, I absolutely guffawed out loud at that one.

Shaun Alexander (at this point, the only way he can decline further is if he starts running the wrong way like Jim Marshall),

Also really enjoyed that one!

wow, such a rich vein or ore to mine for comments... where to start?

I liked seeing Ugoh listed as a ROY candidate, but agree that it's nuts for him to be a top-2 lineman. Maybe in a few years, maybe not. I'm thrilled to have him, but one of the top 2 is not realistic right now. Nice to see Jeff Saturday getting love. Dungy too--he was one blown coverage, one doinked gimme FG, and one "sit the starters" game from a perfect regular season himself, despite starting a D that for a few games returned only 2 starters from the 2007 SB. With Indy's D ranking, it's surprising to see nobody highly rated here--either Meeks, Dungy, Sanders, Brackett, etc. Maybe most of them getting a moderate level of votes is appropriate, rather than any ONE winning a category.

Jason David almost needs an award named for him--Post-SB Free Agent Who Flamed Out? Keep Chopping Lombardis?(that name would allow him to stay on the champ and still suck) Who will win it next year? Tyree?

I am almost offended by Freeney's mention in the overrated category. Didn't his team essentially lose their playoff game because they could not get pressure on the QB? While one could argue they went 6-1 without him and didn't really try in the final loss, they failed when it counted most because they had no pass rush. I'd put Gary Brackett in the running for underrated D player--he sure deserved a Pro Bowl nod over Ray Lewis and anchored one of the best D's this season despite its resemblance to a pre-season roster at times (albeit in a weak year for D's in general).

Hard to vote Joe Thomas the ROY and best OL and then say he's underrated (unless he cures cancer in the offseason). Good vote for Andre Johnson as underrated-he might explode stats-wise next year if healthy.

The sig decline category makes sense because most of those guys had career years, but Marvin Harrison? How do you significantly decline from 25 catches when your career average is about 90? How can he decline more? Retire? Lose a limb to a croc while on vacation in Egypt? Evaporate?

I think the SB/playoff run cements Shockey's place on the overrated roster. And of course HiZ and Robo-P got screwed.

Re 63:
How does it cement Shockey's place? I don't get all this talk that obviously Shockey was the problem in NY and they just needed to get rid of him. Oh yeah, they also had to get rid of Barber. Oh, and Coughlin had to becom a nice guy. Oh, and Eli had to have some of his best performances during the playoffs instead of an occasional meltdown that he has in the regular season.

Bah. Just getting tired of this addition by subtraction BS.

I voted Jarrod Cooper for underrated special teamer. Simply put: the Raiders kicked to Hester, and ate him up. Using the negative, in weeks without Cooper (during his suspension, and after his injury) their kick coverage sucked.

I'm pretty sure Joe Thomas won the Best O-lineman solely because the preceding question was about the Offensive Rookie of the Year and mentioned him by name. Then we're asked for 2 write-ins at offensive line, and it's no surprise what happens.

Even as a Philly fan, I can't agree that Westbrook is underrated anymore. He would've been a great choice the last few years, because he's been pretty amazing this whole time, but now I think everybody realizes it. I heard his name an awful lot this year.

Tony Romo is a quality player and rated pretty fairly imo. I don't understand him winning most overrated, but I guess he's just overexposed.

Devin Hester is ridiculous. It took about 2-3 returns in '06 for me to realize he was the greatest returner in NFL history. Now I think he's about 10 tiers above the next guy in line. I might argue he's still underrated!

i actually think shockey is "rated". he is neither over- nor under- rated. No one says he is in the Gates-Gonzalez discussion for TEs, and even when he faces the Cowboys, Witten outplays him time and time again no matter how much Shockey abuses Roy Williams. Shockey just happens to be a big personality, therefore he gets more attention, which somehow translates into being considered overrated.

My gripe with Shockey is that he makes some amazing grabs in traffic but then lets easy passes bounce off of his chest, stares at his hands, shakes his head and yells at himself and/or Eli. He's ADD.

I voted Marques Colston as most underrated. Sure, the Pro-Bowl is distorted in voting, but he wasn't chosen as a starter, backup, first, second, or third alternate in the NFC.

#52 - see number 2.

I just read through the ROBO-PUNTER thread and found this enjoyable tidbit:

69- Pat, stop trying to bring the discussion back on point. :)

If ROBO-BELICHICK devises an offensive play that will gain 20 yards every time, his team will go 16-0 every year. I don’t see how that affects ROBO-PUNTER at all. ROBO-PUNTER’s team can fire the defensive coordinator or change some defensive personnel, right?

:: Travis — 6/1/2006 @ 2:12 pm

Notice that he did not say 19-0? ROBO-BELICHICK has been created, will ROBO-PUNTER follow?

#67 - The upside to Shockey is that if he gets the pass in the Super Bowl instead of Boss, Rodney Harrison isn't catching him from behind. The downside is that he might not make the catch in the first place.

Didn't read all the comments, so apologies if it's already been said.

I love the confidence FO readers have in the NFC. They expect New England to decline next year, then the ENTIRE NFC, then the rest of the AFC.

and it's not even barely either. The 7th team (Dallas) has twice as many people thinking they're going to decline as the 8th team (Pittsburgh)

re: 61

"All it takes to notice this is watching Ravens games, which obviously the people who voted for Ray Lewis didn’t do."

This is why I have a fair amount of distaste for the overrated portion of this discussion every year - it's plainly more a vote for "dudes we are most sick of hearing about" than one really based on anyone's level of play, plus I think some people just really enjoy being contrarian (cf. Bob Sanders getting votes).

I do like seeing the underrated players recognized, of course. Boley's been my vote for the past two seasons, fwiw.

Re 72:

I didn't notice that until you pointed it out. I added them up and 72.5 percent of voters think an NFC team is going to decline. However, like Doug said, the wording of the question was poor. I doubt many people think the Cowboys or the Packers will miss the playoffs. Also, the Seahawks seem to get in by default every year. The Cardinals and 49ers need to hurry up and improve to the point where they can challenge Seattle for the division.

I bet the NFC North race is exciting next year, I could see any team except the Lions winning.

74 (Tom D):
I doubt many people think the Cowboys or the Packers will miss the playoffs.
I don't know...I know I, for one, interpreted the question as was intended (who would miss the playoffs). I voted for the Packers based on the fact that Favre has to lose it at some point. I'd call myself out for incorporating the gambler's fallacy, but obviously this is different. :P
As for the Cowboys, remember that this is a team dependent on T.O. (crazy, moody, potentially cancerous), Tony Romo (young, still gets away with a lot of risk-taking, easily swayed by celebrities of the female persuasion), and Wade Phillips (bumbly, not in the owner's good graces). Granted, they're uber-talented everywhere else, but they are also the kind of team where some early struggles could snowball and leave them at 6-10 or 7-9.

Re: 55

Ugoh is another of those, "how much worse was his team without him" guys. Manning got pressured more than he had in years while Ugoh was out injured. He was so much better than Charlie Johnson and some people decided that it's because Ugoh is so good instead of because Charlie Johnson played so bad.

-66 I was thinking same thing. Does this mean it was not only a year end award vote, but a psychology 101 test as well?

Gary Bracket better than Ray Lewis? Are you just trying to be the guy who goes out on a limb far enough to be cool or something?

I am sick of hearing about how overrated Ray Lewis is. He is not who he used to be, but he was maybe the best MLB ever. The guy is still one of the best Middle linebackers in the game, off the top of my head I'd probably say I'd want Mike Peterson at MLB for my team, but Lewis certainly isn't bad or even average.

I am a Giants fan and I will tell you some over/underrated guys on my team.

Overrated
- Antoinio Pierce - can't cover the pass minus screen plays.
- Shockey - isn't a top notch tight end. He can make great plays but also drop the routine catches and has dumb penalties.

Underrated
Eli - As witnessed by winning MVP and the SB.
- Justin Tuck - Although now most people know who he is and how good he is, but before the playoffs most people didn't even know what team he played for.
- Gibril Wilson is the name that people need to know. The guy is a ball hawk and everywhere. Look at the Dallas tape, the guy was everywhere. If he isn't a pro bowl SS, then he is only a notch below.

Tony Romo is NOT overrated either.

72 - what I love about FO readers is the awesomely non-stop Futurama references. I think the world would be a better place if more people called themselves the Crushinator. And I know for a fact that the world would be a better place if Zap Branagan's "...checkmate" speech was used more often.

Re 75:

Even if Favre falters, they have Rogers waiting in the wings. Plus they have a new found running game. And they have a young good defense (though I guess the corners are getting up there). I could definitely see the Packers declining, but I think it would be extremely unlikely that they aren't a wild card team minimum.

As for the Cowboys I don't think they are that dependent on TO, Terry Glenn should be healthy next year, and Crayton is a decent #2. Romo has started 26 games now, I think he's past "one year wonder" status now.

78 et al: Is it too late to change my commenter name to "El Zilcho"?

Jason David almost needs an award named for him–Post-SB Free Agent Who Flamed Out? Keep Chopping Lombardis?

That award would be named for Larry Brown, no?

83:

How about the Larry Brown Memorial 'Show Me the Money' award?

#50 - I believe it's pronounced 'NAHM-dee awesome-WAAAH!!!'

79: Gary Brackett was actually awesome this season. He did deserve to go to the Pro Bowl over Lewis. I think you do good scouting, but remember that what your eyes told you about Lewis in games past doesn't necessarily apply anymore.

Re: building around Adrian Peterson

RB is a scary position, but if (as signs may indicate) Adrian Peterson is the next elite running back in the NFL, then I'd rather have him than even a very good left tackle. Several of the elite running backs maintained success over an extended period (Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, for example). If that's what Peterson is, then that would be pretty good to have for the next 8-10 years.

If Peterson turns out to be a second-tier RB (say, like Curtis Martin), then I'd rather have the left tackle. If Peterson turns into the 2007-2017 version of Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, or Walter Payton? Then I'd rather have Peterson.

I must say I enjoyed looking at last year's awards almost as much as this year's because we predicted the 49ers as the suprise 2007 contender and the Giants were second for playoff team most likely to decline in 2007.

Re 87:

Of course Peterson could be the next Gale Sayers or Terrell Davis absolutely amazing, but only for a short period of time.

"remember that what your eyes told you about Lewis in games past doesn’t necessarily apply anymore."

And remember what your eyes tell you now does not come close to indicating how valuable Lewis is to the defense in terms of organization and scheme.

21... Will someone explain to me why Feagles is considered overrated? He seems to me to be a very good directional kicker (placing the ball in unreturnable spots) and gets praised as such.

According to FO, the Giants punt team was 8th this year, and 4th last year.

Looking through last year's awards then this year's again, I think it would be awesome to see a sophomore of the year award. Who does everyone think is the best second year player?

#79 - Pierce might be overrated as an individual defender, but I think he might also be the one irreplaceable part in the Giants' D. The most impressive part of the D in the super bowl wasn't the pressure, it's that they generated pressure without getting beat on the screens & draws New England uses to beat the pressure. NFL films caught Spagnolo on the sidelines saying that it was Pierce's responsibility to change the defenses if Brady audibled. No, he can't cover Jason Witten, but he is the guy who makes sure Witten has to stay back to block.

I think this is Ray Lewis' primary role in Baltimore now. He's obviously no longer the terror he was in 2000, but he is the one guy on the field who knows the entire defense as well as Rob Ryan.

Kelly Washington's ranking in the under-rated special teams player award is an interesting indication of the difference in coaching between the Pats and the Bengals - one of the main reasons the Bengals let him go was because of his inability/unwillingness to contribute on special teams.

Lotta Cowboys hate. Lotta Pats love. Surprised? I'm not.

The "Most OVerrated" categories should be renamed to

"Player Whose TV Game Announcer Man-Crush Most Makes You Gag And Want To Put Your Foot Through The TV Screen".

I'm guessing he doesn't qualify, but for Jerry Jones not to even get a mention for Executive of the Year is absurd. Everybody laughed at him hiring Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett. They laughed at him for signing Bigg Davis, who went to the Pro Bowl. They said Hamlin wouldn't do anything, and he went to the Pro Bowl. He handled the Romo contract situation about as well as you can. He had a solid draft class, including drafting Nick Folk who was leaps and bounds better than any kicker that Parcells had. Jones managed the season about as well as any Executive could have done. I guess his bad rep clouds the judgement of the voters.

86- Thanks for the scouting comment, but I can remember a Gary Bracket interception, maybe it was even the Pats Colts game and if the guy had even average speed he would have scored a TD, but he doesn't. Also remember his position, many people argue the "fungibility" of the Colts LB positions. A couple of years ago people were talking about how this mighty mouse guy was everywhere ( ala Bob Sanders). Last year people were talking about how Rudi Johnson ran him over like a pancake.

Pacifist Viking I am glad you could Chime in about Adrian Peterson. I tend to think he will be more along the NFL record holders as long as he can stay healthy. Joe Thomas was impressive from what I saw, but I'd agree that the wording of the question right after the ROY helped his chances a lot.

Adrian Peterson is an impressive impressive story. If you watched any of the combine last year, you learned that he was the best overall athelete in the draft not only at his position, but overall.

If you look back even further you see a freshman at Oklahoma ( a top notch college program) that was the best athelete on his team AS A FRESHMAN.

He almost won the Heisman trophy AS A FRESHMAN.

Peterson is a legend in the OU weight room. The trainers typically don't push the redshirt and true freshman into full time college workouts, but Peterson not only was outlifting seniors, but he was doing much much more. He had advanced plyometrics and workouts that his teammates couldn't hang with.

Even after long practices of carrying the rock, he would always finish gassers and windsprints first.

The coaching staff had to have trainers evalute his workouts to make sure he wouldn't jeopardize his health as an 18 year old.

His biggest drawbacks are his more upright running style ( which is a more injury prone running style), and the fact that he just flat out runs wreckless. He just runs wreckless. He runs with the power and strength of a power back but with the speed of a speed back.

Many scouts say that he could have potentially been the first EVER player to go from highschool straight to the pros.

He was the standout #1 recruit in TEXAS " the football state" and ironically went to OU because he didn't think Mac Brown would ever win a title. ( something many UT fans like to quote).

If you saw any of his highlights in the San Diego and Chicago games ( vs two stout defenses) you saw why he will be a special player in the NFL.

I would still rank L. Tomlinson as the best back because he has done it for so long, but Peterson was already the 2nd best back in the league as a rookie and he is not your ordinary fungible running back.

Oh and and Cato June was the LB I was talking about in the first paragraph. People loved him, then he was expendable.

The only thing bigger or better about Gary Brackett over Ray Lewis, is that HUGE forehead. Not to mention Lewis's leadership and pregame braveheart antics.

Question about the last category, who should be the number one pick in the draft. Does it take into account the team with the pick, and what they might need or is it more of a "who is the best player in the draft", kind of thing?

Tony Romo is THE most overrated offensive player in the NFL? Really? The FO readership ain't what it used to be. How about putting some thought into it people?

If you don't like the FO stats how about more conventional stats: Romo was second in yards per pass attempt. And he was sixth in net adjusted yards per pass attempt. He's only a two-year starter. What the f*** (excuse my Berman) more do you people expect?

Don't hate him because he does commercials and Fox focuses