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04 Mar 2008
Four Downs: NFC East
by Daniel Adler and David Lewin
Dallas Cowboys
Coaches, Coaches, Coaches!
As a player, Jason Garrett had one memorable game. Starting in place of an injured Troy Aikman on Thanksgiving Day in 1994, he threw for two touchdowns and more than 300 yards to lead the Cowboys to a second-half comeback over Green Bay and show Jay Fiedler that an Ivy League quarterback could make it in the NFL. That was about the extent of Garrett's impact during his seven years with the Cowboys as a player. However, during that time, owner Jerry Jones supposedly took a shine to him and tabbed him as a future head coach.
When Bill Parcells "retired" after the 2006 season, Jones made Garrett, with just two seasons as a quarterbacks coach in Miami, his first hire of the new staff. Fearing Garrett was not quite ready to be a head coach, Jones hired wily veteran (read: retread) Wade Phillips to be head coach and run the defense. As we all know, Dallas went on to have a remarkable season and Garrett became the "it" coaching candidate of the off-season. Jones gave Garrett about three million reasons and the title of assistant head coach/offensive coordinator to get his protégé to stay. After a pay bump for Phillips to keep his salary slightly above that of his assistant, the Cowboys are faced with a bit of a coaching quandary. Other teams have dealt with high profile assistants before -- well, the Redskins have dealt with high profile assistants, at least: Marvin Lewis handled defense when Steve Spurrier tried to bring his fun-n-gun offense to the NFL in 2002; more recently, Gregg Williams controlled the defense while Joe Gibbs concentrated almost entirely on offense. What is unique and worrisome for the Cowboys is that unlike other instances of highly paid assistants, where the head coach is one of the highest paid in the league (i.e., most secure), Phillips is seen as a temporary solution. Phillips is in an unenviable position: He could win 12 or 13 games and be fired.
As if the Cowboys did not have enough coaching turmoil, Parcells decided to raid the lower rungs of their coaching staff, choosing Tony Sparano to head the Dolphins and promoting others holdovers from his Cowboys staff to higher positions with the Dolphins. Sparano should not be a giant loss; he called plays for the Cowboys in 2006, but was relegated to offensive line coach in 2007 upon Garrett's arrival. While the Cowboys staff loses a former University of New Haven head coach in Sparano, it gains a former Dallas Cowboys head coach in newly reacquired secondary coach, Dave Campo. Why did Phillips hire Campo? Theories abound:
- He wanted someone who certainly would not usurp him.
- He wanted someone to give him a fair match in a foot race.
- He knew Campo had not seen Phillips' daughter's belly-dancing in Charlie Wilson's War and would not taunt him about it.
- He wanted someone who knows what it is like to be fired as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
Who Could Leave?
Believe it or not, the Cowboys do have some non-coaches in their organization. Their 2004 second round pick, Julius Jones, is almost certainly gone as a free agent. As long as the team can keep restricted free agent Marion Barber, this could be a case of addition by subtraction. Barber was extremely good in 2007 with a 31.9 DPAR -- good for third among running backs. Despite not starting on his own team, Barber went to the Pro Bowl (along 12 of his teammates). He only carried the ball 204 times in 2007 and it will be interesting to see how he handles a larger load. Barber received the highest RFA tender ($2.562 million), so if a team wants to sign him to an offer sheet, they will have to give up first- and third-round picks. Despite Barber's great ability, this is too steep a price and it is highly unlikely any team would make that deal. However, the fact that the Cowboys have not yet locked up Barber to a long-term deal has made some speculate they are looking to trade him. In reality, this angle may not have much truth; there is no rush for the Cowboys to commit big money to Barber.
Outside of the running back position, the Cowboys secured the services of a pair of Pro Bowlers in re-signing tackle Flozell Adams and using the franchise tag on safety Ken Hamlin. Cornerback Jacques Reeves was snapped up by the Texans. Dime cornerback Nathan Jones is an unrestricted free agent and expected to leave. With two injury-prone corners left -- Terence Newman on one side and the aging Anthony Henry on the other -- the Dallas secondary looks very thin.
Whom Should they Sign?
While Barber is a great back, the Cowboys need to find a quality running back to platoon with him. The speedy Tatum Bell is an interesting complement to the bruising Barber. Considering this year's strong draft class and the fact that the Cowboys have two first-round picks, it is quite possible the Cowboys draft a runner early. Keep an eye on Felix Jones, Arkansas' other first-round running back. Jerry Jones loves former Razorbacks and if he cannot swing a deal for Darren McFadden, Felix Jones may be the next best thing.
The Cowboys should be considered dark horse candidates for Javon Walker. Even with a premier receiver in Terrell Owens and a new contract for Patrick Crayton, the Cowboys have doubts about their receiving corps due to Terry Glenn's questionable health. The Cowboys would prefer to have two top flight starting wideouts and Crayton as the third receiver.
On the defensive side, the Cowboys look very thin at cornerback, especially if Anthony Henry cannot stay healthy. They have already brought in one former defensive superstar, Zach Thomas, and it is possible they could pursue a veteran like Ty Law; although Law is nowhere near the player he once was, perhaps he could help out in nickel coverage and provide leadership. Another former Patriots cornerback with a monosyllabic last name they may have considered was Randall Gay, but the Saints offered him too much money for a third cornerback.
New York Giants
Everybody Stay Calm
Pretty much everything there is to say about the Giants' remarkable run has been said. It was spectacular, unpredictable, and exactly why people love the NFL so much. However, in the aftermath of the greatest upset of all time, a strange myth has taken root: Eli Manning is a star quarterback.
Now, there are a ton of different ways to define "star," but for the sake of this argument, let's keep it simple and say that a star quarterback is one of the eight to ten best in the game, essentially Pro Bowl level. Using this criterion, Eli Manning is not even close.
Last season Eli Manning was 30th in DPAR (total value) and 35th in DVOA (value per play). By definition, an average DVOA is 0%; Eli was at -10.2%, which is to say significantly below average. Now, in Eli's defense he did have a bit of a down year. His DPAR and DVOA were the worst of his three years as a full-time starter. In fact, he has gotten worse with each passing season (his career-high DVOA is 1.1%). Some have argued that Manning became a different player during the Giants' late-season run. We don't buy it. Manning didn't play nearly as well down the stretch as people think he did -- particularly in the first 58 minutes of Super Bowl XLII -- and based on past returns, we would still label his good but not great performance as fluky.
That's not to say Eli can't take a step forward next season. Fifth-year quarterbacks usually improve significantly, and Eli did seem to make some progress with his decision-making and accuracy. However, it would be a shockingly huge improvement if Eli has as good a year in 2008 as several less-hyped young passers, like Philip Rivers (14.2% DVOA) and Jay Cutler (19.7%), had in 2007.
So, to any ESPN talking head who wants to say that Eli is better at this stage in his career than Peyton, or that he has emerged as an elite quarterback, we can only say, "Dude, what the f**k?"
Who Could Leave?
The biggest personnel issue facing the Giants this off-season seems to be the future of the running back position. Derrick Ward, who was having a very nice season (8.1% DVOA) before getting injured, is an unrestricted free agent. The team seemed quite comfortable with the two-headed monster of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw in the playoffs, but if Ward can be retained at a reasonable price then that would add further flexibility to a fragile and unproven group.
Already gone are linebackers Kawika Mitchell (Bills) and Reggie Torbor (Dolphins), plus free safety Gibril Wilson (Raiders). All were somewhat overvalued just by virtue of being starters on the Super Bowl champions, and the Giants made the right move to let them go. The Giants did re-sign the kicking duo of Jeff Feagles and Lawrence Tynes, keeping their 20th ranked special teams intact at a moderate cost. Both restricted free agents -- starting strong safety James Butler and backup quarterback Jared Lorenzen -- were tendered and are expected to return.
Of course there is also the omnipresent Michael Strahan retirement saga and the persistent rumors that Jeremy Shockey is on the way out. I sincerely doubt Shockey is going anywhere because there don't seem to be any strong suitors for his services. Strahan, on the other hand, should walk away on top, but probably won't, especially if he is allowed to skip training camp again.
Whom Should they Sign?
After last off-season yielded only one free agent signing and a Super Bowl victory, don't expect the Giants to be particularly active in free agency -- despite the rumors about a potential trade for DeAngelo Hall. It seems unlikely that such a deal will materialize, and the Giants seem fairly intent on maintaining the team chemistry that was integral to their playoff run. Some offensive line depth would be nice, and even better would be a tackle who would allow David Diehl to return to guard, strengthening two positions. However, it doesn't seem likely that they will be able to find that upgrade in free agency.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Unheralded Superstar
The most valuable contribution to the Eagles during 2007 may have come from the media relations department. Miraculously, they made Andy Reid's "drug emporium" story all but disappear once the season got rolling.
However, the most valuable on-field contribution came from Brian Westbrook, who led all running backs in DPAR with 46.5. Like Tiki Barber before him, Westbrook appears to be an undersized back who is getting better with age; he turns 29 just before the start of the 2008 season. Whether Westbrook can remain as productive as Barber through age 31 remains to be seen, but the fact that he is relatively fresh in terms of career carries (1,014 in six seasons) and uses the same trainer as Barber suggests that he should not slow down during 2008. To put it in perspective, Jamal Lewis is four days older than Westbrook, but has more than twice as many pro carries.
With FO binky Kevin Kolb breathing down his neck and leaving nasty notes in his locker, Donovan McNabb went with the full head shave and staved off the grim reaper for the year. McNabb was the 14th rated passer with a DPAR of 52.5 in 14 games, deceptively maintaining his 2006 form (57.0 DPAR in 10 games). However, a closer look reveals a marked drop in DVOA: 25.7% in 2006, 9.9% in 2007. McNabb may hold up another year, and President Joe Banner has adamantly committed to him for the 2008 season, but it is clear their long term plan involves Kevin Kolb. The Kolb pick very much fits with the Eagles style of drafting at positions of strength, preparing players for a couple years, and then inserting them into the lineup when the original players get old. Cornerback Lito Sheppard started nine games in his second year and became a full-time starter in year three; considering Kolb is a quarterback, it's reasonable to push that timetable back a year for him.
Who Could Leave?
The Eagles have shockingly few potential losses this year, with only four unrestricted free agents on the team. Fullback Thomas Tapeh has already signed with Green Bay, and while he did an excellent job clearing space for Westbrook, the Eagles clearly don't think he will be particularly tough to replace. The other three -- William James, Kimo Von Oelhoffen, and Reno Mahe -- were bit players and don't seem to be at the top of the team's priority list.
Some have questioned the decision to put the franchise tag on L.J. Smith, seeing as he is hardly a franchise player (37th in DPAR). However, the tight end franchise number is quite low, only about $4.5 million, and the Eagles are clearly satisfied with L.J.'s performance as a run-blocker. The move may pay dividends by maintaining continuity on a veteran offense.
In other moves, the Eagles released Jevon Kearse, whose continued existence was news to many fans. They decided to keep both of their restricted free agents, agreeing to a one-year deal with safety/kick returner J.R. Reed and tendering a qualifying offer to cornerback Joselio Hanson.
Perhaps the biggest looming loss is the potential trade of Lito Sheppard -- that is, it is the biggest looming loss depending on which Sheppard is being traded. Sheppard is one of the more talented young corners in the league, but he's been horribly inconsistent over the past three years. (His Success Rate, according to FO game charting, has gone from 42 percent in 2005 to 60 percent in 2006 to 41 percent in 2007.) Sheppard's starting job has been given to new arrival Asante Samuel (see below) and the Eagles are said to be open to moving Sheppard if an agreeable contract extension cannot be reached, as Eagles prefer not to allow key players to enter the final years of their contracts unsigned.
Whom Should They Sign?
During his introductory press conference, Asante Samuel commented, "The fans have always been supportive of the team ... that's why I picked the Philadelphia Eagles." Has he ever been to Philadelphia? Considering the fans are notoriously harsh, it sounds like he picked the Eagles for another reason: Money. Not that there's anything wrong with that. The Eagles seem to be feeling quite generous this off-season, shelling out the big dollars for Samuel (6 years, $57 million) and Chris Clemons (5 years, terms undisclosed).
With those two in the books, and relatively few potential losses, the Eagles don't have a lot of needs. Obviously a wide receiver would be nice, and the Eagles made a big last-day run at Randy Moss before he re-signed with New England. It was reported that they had interest in Javon Walker, but that does not seem likely to materialize. Most likely, the Eagles are hoping that the addition of Samuel and slight upgrades in other areas will be enough to get them back to the playoffs in 2008.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback of the Future?
So far the big news of the Redskins off-season has been the hiring of Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks coach Jim Zorn as head coach. Zorn is, by all accounts, a good guy and a good coach, although it remains to be seen whether he is capable of making the leap from position boss to top dog. The move went against Daniel Snyder's traditional philosophy of hiring the biggest name available, but that's no guarantee it's going to work out.
The biggest question raised by this move is how quarterback of the future (and present), Jason Campbell will fit in Zorn's West Coast offense. My guess -- and this is David Lewin writing this section -- is not well. I firmly believe that Campbell has the talent to be a Pro Bowl quarterback. He was 20th in DVOA last year (7.0%), far ahead of one Elisha Manning (-10.2%, 35th), and if you asked me which one I would take I'd say Campbell without hesitating. However, Zorn's hiring means it's not likely that Campbell will reach his potential with the Redskins.
Campbell's strength is his strong arm and ability to throw intermediate and deep passes with accuracy. Criticism of Campbell generally focuses on his slow delivery, and his imprecision on timing and underneath routes. Campbell rarely had to throw short in college because the presence of Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Brandon Jacobs made it unnecessary, so it is understandable that he is somewhat underdeveloped in this area. Given these limitations, it seems unlikely that the West Coast offense will be a good fit.
Since his Auburn days, Campbell has been in a different offensive system virtually every year. He seems to have done OK picking them up, but some people have described him as a slow learner. The combination of a new system to which he is poorly suited, a new coach whose public statements about Campbell have been lukewarm at best, and the presence of a proven veteran backup on the bench could spell trouble for Campbell in 2008.
Who Could Leave?
Using creative cap maneuvers fueled by owner Dan Snyder's deep pockets, the 'Skins should have little trouble getting under the cap. Reworking the deals of Chris Samuels, Santana Moss, and others will guarantee them more money, but save on this year's cap. With Todd Collins already re-signed as a free agent, return man Rock Cartwright appears to be the only player the Redskins will have to fight to keep. High-profile bust Brandon Lloyd was cut last week and Mark Brunell, a Joe Gibbs favorite, will likely retire.
Whom Should They Sign?
In chronological order, here are Snyder's highest profile pickups since 2000: Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Laveranues Coles, Clinton Portis, Shawn Springs, Antwaan Randle El, Brandon Lloyd, Adam Archuleta, Fred Smoot. The names are becoming less impressive. Recent pickups have not had much greater success, but at least the cost of whiffing is lower. Snyder and Vinny Cerrato, newly promoted Executive VP of Football Operations, are always a threat to throw off the pay scale for the entire NFL when they decide to crack out Snyder's checkbook, but recently they have shown much more restraint. Expect that to continue this year as they have little cap space to work with and seem to finally understand that it is next to impossible to build the core of a team through free agency. The Redskins have publicly declared they will not make any splashy acquisitions, but from the guys who brought you the meteoric rise of Jim Zorn, do not totally rule out a high profile wide receiver signing such as Javon Walker. Their recent experiment in tiny wideouts has failed, and they may look for a big target for Jason Campbell.
Daniel Adler and David Lewin are an Ivy Leaguer and a quarterback, but when combined, they do not become Jason Garrett, Ivy League quarterback. We thank them for pitching in on the final Four Downs.
Ugh, more stirring the pot with Manning.
When you have Tim Hasselbeck, Phil Simms, Kurt Warner, Boomer Esiason, Jim Miller, et al all in agreement that the Giants' offense is the most QB-unfriendly in the NFL, I can't help but be skeptical of QBs who run paper and scissors offenses like Cutler. It's no coincidence at all that Eli started playing like the QB that we all expected him to be when Coughlin and Gilbride tossed the playbook out the window in week 17. Doesn't hurt that Steve Smith returned from injury, and Toomer finally decided to stop dropping passes. (And no, Shockey being hurt didn't help at all, watch the Buffalo game tape again if you somehow believe that.)
I hope this thread doesn't get ugly, but I'm not optimistic.
Why, if you're Daniel Snyder, do you hire a no-name coach who's system doesn't mesh with your QB's abilities? I could understand it, sort of, if he hired a guy with a well-known pedigree, but why make it harder for a guy you traded two picks to get?
On another note, I'm not quite as convinced as most that Sheppard is definitely out. He's signed until (I think) 2011 at a reasonable number, so they don't HAVE to move him. I think that locker room malcontent stuff is over-rated. Of course, if they swap him and the #19 pick to jump up and take McKelvin I'd be quite pleased.
I think you've got the wrong backfield targeted as the Giants' biggest personnel issue. The RBs are fine-- some combination of Jacobs, Bradshaw, Droughns, and either Ward, a rookie, or cast-off from another team will be perfectly adequate.
The DBs are the biggest question on the team. At safety, Gibril Wilson walked for huge money, James Butler wasn't that good to begin with (although it's said that he was playing through a hamstring injury for much of 2007), and Michael Johnson is promising but untested. At corner, Aaron Ross looks like the only sure thing. Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters will be another year older, and, much like Eli Manning, it's tough to say whether Corey Webster's late-season improvements (he caught the last pass Brett Favre threw as a pro!) are a fluke or a herald of things to come. Kevin Dockery is an okay nickel guy, but doesn't have the size you want in a starter.
They signed Sammy Knight yesterday, which will help provide a "floor" at the safety position, in case Butler, Johnson, and/or whoever they draft aren't up to snuff. There may not be any more moves in this area until the draft, but that doesn't mean that their secondary is anywhere close to settled.
Cudos on Campbell. It's just hard to think he will thrive in a West Coast system. And it was just hard to not be excited about the play of Todd Collins during the playoff run. He hit 3rd and 4th options continually. His strength was his mastery of Saunder's system. You seriously wonder if he could do the same under Zorn. So what am I saying? I'm saying 6 or 7 wins unless Campbell can learn to throw on time in '08. Here's praying Jim Zorn is coach of the year.
We get it, FO as a whole has a strong hatred for Eli and always will. You don't need to keep screaming it. Oh, and stop trying to use DVOA to rate individual players! It is an interesting way to rate teams, but to try and gauge individual players with it is quite misleading.
Re: Jason Campbell
Do you know that one of the offenses he ran at Auburn was a WCO-type offense and the season he ran it Campbell completed 70% of his passes? The OC at Auburn was Al Borges at the time.
Anyway, we'll see. I hate the offseason and the media coverage of it. It's really over-rated. No matter who joins or leaves the Redskins, I'll still root for the Redskins in the fall. The most important roster moves are not the 1st round draft picks or the big-money free agents, but 3rd and beyond draft picks and UDFAs. Yet I think 90% of the media focuses on the big names. To be honest, I didn't read many FO articles (I just perused a few of Doug's columns) and they don't look to be too bad... but this is the Dead Sea period for real NFL fans. There's stuff going on but it's not nearly as exciting as when the players put the pads on and play week-in-week-out... must be good for them to get a long break.
No salary cap numbers?
Lets see if we can objectively assess the impact of bias on the story line by FO authors. For the sake of argument, lets assume they are biased. Then according to this analysis, I conclude they are biased....
Whats dissapointing is the editorial choices. An inability to state anything other than the obvious, and pretend its an improvement over the mind-numbing stuff from major media.
If there are no positive objective findings from '07s outcome to apply to '08, then I would suggest there is no value to this statistical method.
Dear FO Authors: Your methods suck.
Sincerely,
Someone who knows very little about said methods but doesn't agree with your conclusions.
#8:
You can't hope to come up with accurate salary cap numbers until all of the details of the signings and re-negotiations in the last week are public.
The failure of FOs methods bodes well for Eli. Here's a large wager that he significantly outperforms both Rivers and Culter.
Terence Newman and injury prone CB? He's missed 1 game in his entire career. If he's injury prone than Dusty Dvorcek is legally dead.
The lead-in to this story in my RSS reader says the NFC East is "a division so strong that the worst regular-season team in 2007 goes into 2008 as the defending Super Bowl champion" which is odd, because I'm pretty sure the Eagles, at 8-8 were the worst team in the division, and they're not the defending Super Bowl champions. It's one thing to value DVOA highly; it's another thing to value it above actual standings.
Usually I don't have a problem with the 'anti-Eli' bias since said bias is founded in FO's stats. However, it doesn't seem entirely appropriate to me for the author of a supposedly-professional article to refer to a player derisively (eg 'Elisha' Manning).
RE: 14 The lead-in to this story in my RSS reader says the NFC East is “a division so strong that the worst regular-season team in 2007 goes into 2008 as the defending Super Bowl champion†which is odd, because I’m pretty sure the Eagles, at 8-8 were the worst team in the division, and they’re not the defending Super Bowl champions. It’s one thing to value DVOA highly; it’s another thing to value it above actual standings.
Actually, the whole point of FO's custom stats like DVOA IS to go beyond the standings in determining a team's quality. If the Giants graded out as the worst team in the league in 2006 in DVOA, there's no reason why they shouldn't reference that number now.
Oops! Sorry for the double-post, but I obviously got some years mixed up in my head there. I'll rephrase that "If the Giants graded as the worst team in the NFC East in 2007 according to DVOA, then there's no reason they shouldn't reference that number now."
14. What? DVOA was created in part because of the recognition of the fact that wins and losses don't completely describe the strength of a team. It's completely valid to use that here and say that DVOA rated the Giants as the worst regular season team in the division.
Obviously, they should qualify that intro as "according to our statistics..." so that we know its just meaningless BS.
#15:
Eli is short for Elisha. It's his name: Elisha Nelson Manning. (see link on my name)
RE:16 Actually, the whole point of FO’s custom stats like DVOA IS to go beyond the standings in determining a team’s quality. If the Giants graded out as the worst team in the league in 2006 in DVOA, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t reference that number now.
I guess my point is, if your stats grade out the eventual Super Bowl Champs as the worst team in the division, maybe it's the stats that are flawed rather than the actual games on the field.
Jerry Jones loves former Razorbacks? Who, besides Ken Hamlin?
Is FO falling for the "report media rumors and talking points as fact" game too now?
Would be a pity, if so.
Giants, Who Should they sign?
Ummm, maybe actually giving us free agents that would fit these needs you describe would be useful. I know you waited until five days had passed to post this article but it seems useless as a point of discussion if you don't give us real names to discuss.
RE #20
Wow. Dave Lewin, my sincere apologies. I ought to do more research before writing on the internet. And I'm sorry to Eli to, who's had to go through life with a name that looks like it should have been given to a girl.
RE:#24
Elisha is Archie Manning's given name, too. It's a male name, all the way back to the Bible.
Manning did have a pretty crappy regular season, in conventional stats as well. I believe he had a 56% completion percentage, 20 INTS (compared to 23 TDs), and a QB rating of 73.9. The numbers are what they are, and I'm a Giants fan.
Then again, his playoff run was very nice, I'll trade regular season stats for a post-season performance like that any day. As far as his 'poor' performance in the SuperBowl, if you remove the INT that Steve Smith shoveled from 2" off the ground to 6' in the air (in other words, obviously no way that ball is intercepted due to Eli's end of the deal) then he outplayed Brady.
So bash Eli and the Giants all you want, they still have the rings. I feel sorry for any Pats fans, Brady is going to get hammered next year. I have a feeling he'll be eating through a tube around mid-season after every team sends the house on every play.
#21: That's the point. Comparing a teams play-by-play performance to that of an average teams in the same situations, and then adjusting it for the quality of a teams opponent, creates a metric of no redeeming value. Interesting idea, but it failed.
#22, Yeah, I'm only finding one Razorback ever drafted by the Cowboys: Jerry Dorsey in 1970.
Elisha is the name of an Old Testament prophet, the successor to Elijah. Not too many of them were females.
It's interesting how quickly a name becomes "feminized." Elisha is fairly recognizable as a male name, even sounds like the unmistakably male Elijah, but as soon as one fairly recognizable woman (assuming that Elisha Cuthbert is fairly well known)gets that name, immediately people categorize the name as feminine. Same thing happened to Ashley (remember Ashley Wilkes in Gone With the Wind)and probably to others I could think of if I actually had a functioning memory. There's probably some interesting and meaningful point about sexism, etc. in this, but you guys might prefer to talk about football.
24: Elisha = old testament (male) prophet. See First and Second Kings.
Small nitpick: FB Thomas Tapeh (formerly of the Eagles) has signed with the Vikings, not the Packers
I guess my point is, if your stats grade out the eventual Super Bowl Champs as the worst team in the division, maybe it’s the stats that are flawed rather than the actual games on the field.
Or maybe they genuinely played better in the postseason than the regular season?
#21, 32
They certainly did play better in the postseason. However, I don't think the DVOA grades were all that great comparative to other postseason teams as well. There are just some parts of a game like football that aren't captured well in stats. Some of this is luck, but also some of it is timing, and being able to play your best at the most important times.
Eli is not a great QB, yet. He may become one, or may not. I for one do not think he is as bad as his DVOA/DPAR suggest. But the stats are what they are. Eli made many mistakes this season, but often the team did not let those mistakes kill them (except vs. Min). He made plays in several games where his play won the game late (Was, Chi, NE). But he's as far from the only reason they won as he is from being a detriment to the team.
[Elisha] went up from [Jericho] to Bethel, and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, "Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!" And he turned around, and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the LORD. And two she-bears came out of the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.
Wade is a retread, Jerry loves former razorbacks. So insightful.
I really think that the Giants are the first case of the reverse FOMBC curse.
Re: 34
Proving once again that some people just can not take a joke.
Where I think the ELi analysis is weak is the dismissal of apparent improvement from week 17 through the Superbowl. I think that's really debatable and if they're going to suggest his play from then on wasn't as good as perceived they ought to be able to provide some evidence to support that point.
It sure looked to me like Eli did a much better job protecting the ball at the end of the year. Other than the previously mentioned Smith bobble in the SB and one late pick in week 17, he didn't turn the ball over. And he did it without sacrificing their downfield passing game. It's certainly possible that those five games were a small sample size fluke, but it's just as possible they represent a new baseline for performance.
1) Tapeh signed with Minnesota.
2) RE #3 - you are correct. Shepherd is signed through 2011. But is not happy. If they were to trade him to move up, I can think of a lot of guys who can help us more then McKelvin. I'd rather stay put and get a guy like DeSean Jackson, who even if he brings us nothing as a WR, at least he'll be able to return a kick more then 10 yards. If not him, maybe Kenny Phillips falls into our laps?
3) "notoriously harsh" - and the bashing of Philly fans continues. Demanding? Sure. But you'll not find more passionate, more knowledgable, more die-hard fans anywhere.
We now return you to outraged Giants fans.
I just find the whole Eli Manning business interesting because in PFP 2007 I took what was, at the time, a pro-Manning stance saying that people should lay off him because he's actually an average to above average QB who you can win with. Now, coming off the worst full season of his career I take the exact same position, and it's perceived as anti-Manning. Personally I don't think 4 playoff games are that much more important than 4 years of mediocre performance, but I understand if people want to disagree.
"I really think that the Giants are the first case of the reverse FOMBC curse."
Ha!
FOMBC-- the sword that cuts both ways!
One tidbit on J. Campbell.
His best year in college is under a WCO in 2004. That year he was SEC offensive player of the year.
#40
This year was not close to Eli's worst year as a starter. Try watching his play instead of blindly following what you can learn through nfl.com play-by-play. The things that matter for a QB improved tremendously over this past offseason for Eli (footwork, accuracy, read progression, sense of pressure).
It is hard to say why his statistical performance departed from his apparent improvement so widely at times this year. Some of it is due to the Giants' offensive system being unneccessarily complex and filled with option routes until seemingly December. Some of it was the Giants having the most drops of any team in the NFL in the regular season. Some of it was having to play a number of bad weather games. It is hard to say what the largest reason was.
Re: #13
If you're going to attack an article for being wrong, at least look at the guy's stats from this season. Maybe injury prone is a little strong, but it is fair to say Terence Newman battled injuries throughout this season. For the first time in his career, Newman did not start every game he played in (due to the fact that he was not healthy). Also, he only played in 13 games during the regular season (11 starts). Furthermore, his injury struggles were widely reported throughout the season.
The thing that jumps out to me is the fact that D-Lew would rather have an Eli Manning with a ring on his finger than a Jason Campbell who was benched late in the year in favor of career backup Todd Collins. Campbell was healthy enough to play but the skins wanted the "momentum" of keeping Collins in.
Blindly comparing their DVOA is absurd. The Redskins had the most vanilla offense in the league full of WR screens, 2 yard fullback passes, and 5 yard tight end drags. The guy didn't even call audibles, and choaked at the end of numerous games ( Tampa, Dallas, Philly, Giants 1 stick out in my mind).
In DVOA land the Giants are the worst team in the NFC East... back in the real world they are super bowl champs.
Also, the biggest question for the Giants is the RB position? They had 4 backs play a signifigant role last year and with exception of the garbage Reuben D. they all had much success.
That was after they were supposed to collapse last year with Tiki and his huge pct. of that offense leaving. AND offsides Luke moving to Tampa.
I post it almost everytime there is a Giants article, but MANNING MAKES THE RUN GAME BETTER with his audibles and presnap reads. What is so hard to understand about that? Before every snap he points out the Mike and calls audibles accordingly ( as opposed to many QB's who just line up and run the play ( Like Jason Campbell )).
People said the Colts were screwed when they lost Edge, and that the Giants were when they lost the Marquee Tiki. Both teams won the SB and had built up the stock of Addai/Rhodes, and Jacobs/Bradshaw/Ward.
The Giants are a great example of a team with a fungible RB situation. The key NEEDS will be OLB, S. James Butler is a grade D player, and Gerris Wilkinson can only step into one OLB slot and although looked good in limited time, he is inexperienced. They have to draft/sign a stud OLB and a smart Gerry Reese will.
Elisha Manning is not disparaging or derogatory. Now, if the authors had referred to him as Elisha Hussein Manning, well, that would be something different altogether.
Watching Campbell play I got the impression that WCO wouldn't be the best fit, but, if what some other posters are saying is true that Campbell played collegiate WCO in '04, then maybe there is yet some hope.
re: 4
I agree the secondary is still the biggest worry, though there were a couple plays in the Super Bowl where Adalius Thomas went by Diehl in a manner reminiscent of Suggs going by Diehl in the preseason game. I suppose Whimper has been in the "developing" stage, but certainly isn't a sure thing, even if it would be nice to see him "overcome" his name :). Also, I'd think that a linebacker who can cover would be pretty important, especially with covering Cooley and Witten for 4 games next year.
Here's hoping Reese & Co come up with a draft class even half as good as the last one. I think given the level of success they've had, sticking with a few modest deals like Knight's seems perfectly reasonable.
Re: The Giants, Eli, and the Running Game.
I've finally realized that the FO staff are actually writing Trolls for the Giants fans. Quite simply, they seem unable to objectively analyze the "worst team ever to play in the SB" Giants.
To discuss Eli without mentioning the dropped passes is insanity. To forget to mention that his #1 receiver was hurt all year and didn't practice? Right, a little oversight. Coming into 07, Eli's accuracy was horrendous. He DID have some bad moments in the last season (and one god-awful game against Minn), but on the whole his play was improved ALL year, and above average to good in the playoffs.
Between Jacobs, Ward, and Bradshaw, the running game seems to be as good as anyone. Also, the Giants had solid play at FB through the late season and playoffs.
The 2ndary looked to be as bad as any in NFL history through 2.5 weeks, then came together and played well enough through the rest of the season.
8 rookies played in the playoffs.
Honestly, this team seems potentially on the verge of actually putting up some good DVOA #'s in 08, and really that's what its about, isn't it?
OK, so I took the bait. 17-14
#46:
I don't see OLB as that big a concern for the Giants. Torbor was only starting because of Kiwanuka's injury. With Kiwi back, he'll be the starter on the Strongside (no, he's not moving back to DE), and Zak DeOssie will likely replace Torbor as the #2 at that spot. On the Weakside, Wilkinson looks ready to step in. They need to draft for depth, not for a starter. I'd be surprised if they take a LB before the 3rd round.
#48: I'm happy with the Giants' OL. Yeah, Diehl could be improved on, but you don't find young starting-caliber OLTs available in free agency. He's adequate (and a salary cap bargain), and they've got 3 developmental projects behind him in Whimper (who has played well enough as a fill-in to be the #3 OT), Koets, and Na'Shan Goddard. In the extraordinarily unlikely event that there's a phenomenal OLT prospect available at pick #31, by all means they should take him, but otherwise, they should be fine sitting tight.
The only OL need I see (besides an extension for Snee)is for a young C/G to develop to replace O'Hara in 2-3 seasons.
44: If I recall correctly, Newman dealt with a foot injury that happened during training camp/preseason for most of the season that he played through simply because the Cowboys needed him to. One year of being injured does not make a player injury prone. It just makes him unlucky for that season.
I am aware that Campbell had an excellent year in the WCO under Borges at Auburn. However, he only threw 270 times during that season. He had high yards per completion and completion percentage numbers which makes it tough to tell how much he was throwing long v. short.
It is my recollection that that Auburn team eschewed short passes in favor of runs by Brown and Williams and that Campbell mostly took shots downfield in response to teams stacking the box. He was extremely effective, but I'm not sure that Zorn's system is going to be that similar. I hope so though, I think Campbell is an excellent talent.
Also, I don't think anyone meant to impugn the Giants backfield. I personally love Brandon Jacobs. Still, letting Ward get away would be a mistake.
Irrational. Discussion of Eli Manning is. Just like his tight end, who runs the wrong route a LOT. Fueled by his blonde hair, he never actually has to produce - he's irrational. Just like discussion of his quarterback.
Matt, if you've been watching the Giants the past few years, Shockey is hardly the worst offender in that category. That's why the Gilbride/Hufnagel offense of the past few years has wrecked havoc on my blood pressure and general well being.
I'm pleasantly surprised to not see much Shockey bashing here so far. It's no coincidence that as soon as he went down, Brandon Jacobs became a lot less effective. In fact, according to a recent article in Newsday by Glauber I believe, the Giants think Shockey is the best blocking TE in the league.
46- I was curious about Wilkinson because of the things I heard about him. He played many positions in college and was a team captain at GT. He was a smart player and passing the Giants legendary writing/psyche tests solidify that theory.
I was VERY impressed with Wilki stepping in the Pats game and the other time he got but he is still a question mark. On the other side, I am not sure if Deossie is ready as the only cut I saw was on special teams. I actually like Chase Blackburn as the eventual replacement at MLB, and he is a special teams tackeling machine.
I honestly doubt Kiwi will be playing SAM next year. He is too tall and lacks the awareness/quickness in the passing game. He was abused in the first two games of the year and if Strahan doesn't come back I'd bet dollars to donuts he is starting at DE.
I think the loss of Gibril Wilson will sting as he was probably the most underrated Safety in the league. I know somebody will chime in about Adrian Wilson but most more than casual fans know he's a stud. Wilson will hurt but I understand why they didn't match that huge deal ( 3rd highest paid S in the league).
With Wilson gone, and Butler not even an average player I want the Giants to spend their first draft pick on a stud S or stud OLB. Maybe Zibikowski " don't call me rudy" from Notre Dame ?
Sammy Knight is an aged strong safety that was once known to be a hard hitting tackeler, but weak in coverage. That doesn't bode well with a weak in coverage James Butler. The Giants MUST upgrade the S spot, or else that defense is either going to be giving up big plays or sacking the quarterback. A boom/bust defense if you will.
#39 I like DeSean Jackson too, but the guy is an elf and I can't justify spending a first round pick on a player who's primary, if not only, contribution will be on special teams. McKelvin lead the nation in punt returns last year and he'd be the nickleback before eventually becoming the starter. I wouldn't mind Kenny Phillips either and he's got some experience as a PR (I think he returned two for TDs) but he's the only safety with a first-round grade. If he's gone at #19 where do they go? I doubt Talib or Jenkins will still be around, though Rodgers-Cromartie might. I'm not in love with any of the WR prospects and I don't think OL is an area of great need. Maybe Trevor Laws, the DT from Notre Dame?
Jason Campbell is NOT a good fit for a west coast offense. His strength is a strong arm, height and his size. That made him ideal for that "game manager" role he had last year, or for a more downfield passing offense.
His weaknesses are his slow delivery, lack of experience, the ability to get flustered late in games " or drives", any redskin fan can attest that he was not very good at running 2 minute drills. He threw a lot of interceptions late in games and crunch time, and he failed to manage clock on 2 minute drills ( like Ending the Giants game on the 1 yard line).
His slow delivery doesn't bode well for a quick passing west coast offense. He is built more for what Jacksonville tried to do with Leftwhich, and less for a West Coast offense like Tampa, Seattle, or Green Bay.
Harris- Does a rail thin D. Jack remind you at all of Todd Stinkston? Speedy but built like a human pipe cleaner?
Do you think there is any chance at all that the Iggles land the big prototypical Limas Sweed out of Texas ?
I honestly think that one of the main things that destroyed the Eagles last year was the loss of the tight end in the middle of the field. Especially in that west coast offense. If Smith were healthy I believe the 07' Eagles were a playoff team.
I know you can play that " if only so and so wasn't hurt" game with Mcnabb, Dawkins, Westbrook played through injuries, but in that West coast offense the Smith loss laregely went under the radar.
I clearly rate the Eagles higher than the Redskins for next year, and I think if things played out just a little bit different Philly could have been a 10-11 win team. Just look at GB, Wash 1, Chicago etc. The 07' Eagles were the best last place team I can ever remember.
Let's look at the things against Eli in 07'...
1. Playing in NY
2. His old RB dogged him before the year
3. His top WR didn't practice/played hurt
4. Toomer had the dropsies this year
5. Steve Smith was hurt most of the yr
6. Sinorce Moss was hurt most of the yr
7. Shockey played hurt then went on IR
8. He had 3 starting RB's
9. His receivers dropped more balls than any other WR Corps. in the league
10. He had a Guard that nobody liked playing LT
11. He ran a complex offense
With all of those challenges against him, he still managed to prove his doubters wrong and win the SB. Is he a top 5 QB... NO, but he wasn't as bad as many people around here would lead you to believe, and he is CERTAINLY better than Jason Campbell.
17-14... SB MVP
No, but Shockey is the one who does ridiculously irrational things like spike the ball after picking up a routine first down, making him a better punchline.
Jacobs slowing down did have quite a bit to do with facing tougher defenses at the end. He was able to bull through Buffalo and the second half of New England Part I without Shockey.
Re: #7
Do you know that one of the offenses he ran at Auburn was a WCO-type offense and the season he ran it Campbell completed 70% of his passes? The OC at Auburn was Al Borges at the time.
I'm not trying to call you out on this one, but I'm afraid you are dead wrong. Borges had a background that was largely dominating by the West Coast offense, but he ran nothing of the sort at Auburn with Campbell.
The Auburn offense in 2004 was just like DL described it in the article. They had a power running game, and forced defenses to load the box in an attempt to stop that. Once that took place, they attacked the defense with a deep passing game.
If you don't believe me or DL, just look at the passing statistics for that year. Campbell averaged 14.3 yards per completion. That was the highest yards per completion in the SEC, and only Minnesota -- another offense with a power running game -- posted a higher yard per completion average on the national level (counting only BCS schools). The #1 receiver, Courtney Taylor, averaged almost 18 yards per completion, and the #2 receiver, Devin Aromashodu over 21 yards per completion. Even the tight ends averaged almost 15 yards per completion.
Obviously, you don't average that many yards per completion by throwing all of the short throws that come with the WCO. DL is right on this one.
To all those who forget and claim that Eli only turned the ball over once in the last part of the season and that was because Steve Smith bobbled it:
He threw right to Asante Samuel who then dropped it. That is not good work Eli, that is thank F ing God.
I'm a fan of Eli, but he is streaky. When he's bad, he is very very bad, not like bad meaning good, but like Alex Smith bad.
#39: Philly fans in all sports are notorious bad sports. Christ, the Vet was the only NFL stadium with a jail and courtroom. I assume the Linc continues that fine tradition? But what else can be expected from a from a city with a broken symbol and that booed Santa Claus. And the Mummers, let's not even start...I spent the longest two weeks of my life one night in Philly...
62. One mistake isn't exactly damning and there aren't a ton of CBs who would have come down with that ball anyway. Not that I'm convinced he's top ten now, but I'm willing to wait and see.
Re: 55
I honestly doubt Kiwi will be playing SAM next year. He is too tall and lacks the awareness/quickness in the passing game. He was abused in the first two games of the year and if Strahan doesn’t come back I’d bet dollars to donuts he is starting at DE.
I'm pretty sure that Osi and Tuck will be the starting DEs.
I love how Lewin said in PFP 07 about Eli: "He won't carry the team, but you can win with him"
And then, the Giants win a SB against a team with the highest scoring offense in NFL history, by a score of 17-14, proving that Eli won't carry the team (or they would've scored more than 17 points), but that you can win with him (which they did). And then Giants fans are all like "See, Lewin, you were wrong all along. You just hate Eli, admit it!" Wow.
The lead-in to this story in my RSS reader says the NFC East is “a division so strong that the worst regular-season team in 2007 goes into 2008 as the defending Super Bowl champion†which is odd, because I’m pretty sure the Eagles, at 8-8 were the worst team in the division, and they’re not the defending Super Bowl champions.
Honestly, it should be pretty obvious that they didn't mean the division's worst team by record, because the team with the worst record doesn't go to the playoffs, and therefore doesn't win the Super Bowl. Unless they've added a third wildcard team to each conference while I wasn't looking.
It’s one thing to value DVOA highly; it’s another thing to value it above actual standings.
Right, because it's crazy talk to say that the Giants were better than the Dallas team that blew them out twice and had a better W-L record. Oh, wait...
Is it possible that the better team doesn't always win a given game, and that a team might even have a worse record than a division rival simply because of a harder schedule and worse luck? Could it be that an 8-8 team that lost a game to a 10-6 team by three points after its kicker hit a FG attempt off the right upright on the final play of the game might possibly have gotten slightly unlucky? Perhaps, had the kick been slightly to the left, they might have won in OT, and then they would have had the same record as this other team. Maybe then, it wouldn't seem so crazy to think that that team was better than the other one. Is it possible that things happened in a slightly flukey way, in that game and/or others throughout the season?
Nope! All game outcomes, W-L records, and playoff results are preordained by God. There is no such thing as luck, and all "non-predictive events" are simply the result of the superior swagger, moxie, grit, and "smart, team oriented football" of the team that they benefit. Any attempt to predict game outcomes with objective statistical analysis is completely and utterly futile.
"I guess my point is, if your stats grade out the eventual Super Bowl Champs as the worst team in the division, maybe it’s the stats that are flawed rather than the actual games on the field.
Or maybe they genuinely played better in the postseason than the regular season?"
Now that's just crazy talk. I mean, sure they won playoff games against three teams that they had gone 0-4 against in the regular season. Sure, they outscored those teams by an average of 3 points in the postseason, while being outscored by an average of over 11 points by those teams in the regular season. But they didn't really play better in the playoffs. The scoreboard just better reflected their dominance when the postseason arrived. Yeah, totally.
#66... Not to nitpick, but the Cowboys did not blow out the Giants twice. The first game was extremely tight and the second game was rather close. The closeness of those games was what led some (myself included) to think the Giants had a good chance at beating Dallas.
Just basing opinions on the final score (without really examining the game) is no more intelligent than basing everything solely on W-L record.
64: Eli Manning ranks between Dilfer and Grossman in completion % for active QB's.
If Asante Samuel catches the Int, it is a damning mistake because the Giants lose the game. Eli's line becomes 1 TD, 2 Int, under 56% passing.
Every year he loses the Giants a few games, but every year he wins more games for them, which is what separates him from Dilfer and Grossman.
I'm a fan of Eli. He's not the best but he doesn't try to dink & dunk and manage a game which is akin to trying not losing a game.
Re: Manning.
I'll give you guys credit for one thing...you have your story, and you're sticking with it!!!
LOL...I'm kind of bummed though to be honest, I had my heart set on a DVOA Title and all I got was this lousy "Super Bowl Champions" t-shirt. Oh well, maybe next year?!?!?!
Well no offense... but FO said the Giants in rd 1 were the biggest mismatch in Tampa,then predicted every other playoff game, and Schatz then wrote an article not talking about why NE would win but blow out NY.
Now...the article begins with a teaser of NY being the worst team in the division and then states that Eli's post season run wasn't that good...and then even that overrated run was fluky.
Sorry if I can't help but feel that their is a subjective undercurrent of resentment I detect.
RE#56 I look at our corner situation and I don't see a guy on the roster over 5'10". Having watched Plexico maul our CBs, I want a guy with the size to match up with him. The two CBs with size are Cromartie and Talib - and sadly, I'm not sold that either will pan out. That's why I was looking elsewhere.
As for Jackson, we know Reid's not going to play the draft picks anyway, he never does. So a guy who gives us something on special teams is more then we get most years out of a rookie. Yeah, he's small, but I think he's going to be the rare exception - the little guy who pans out. If not him, then I wouldn't mind getting a big target like Limas Sweed. Yeah, he's got some injury concerns, and he's not going to return kicks, but he's 6'5" and he should be on the board when we pick.
Looking elsewhere, you can never have too many DEs. A guy like Calais Campbell would give us the freedom to cut Darren Howard - which would be addition by subtraction.
I do like the other guy you mentioned - Mike Jenkins - a lot. He's not necessarily the highest rated CB, but he's the guy I think will be the best pro of the bunch.
As for DTs, I'd like to see us add some guys there, but between Bunkley and Patterson, I don't think we need to make it a day 1 priority.
At least you're not suggesting linebackers!
65. Kiwi is taller, longer arms and is more of a straight away speed guy where as Tuck has that interior quickness. Tuck is the 2nd best DT pass rusher off the top of my head next to Tommy Harris.
Here is what I have penciled in...
WILL = Gerris Wilkinson
MIKE = A. Pierce
SAM = To BE Determined
LDE = Osi O.
DT = Tuck
DT = Robbins
RDE = Strahan/Kiwi
If Strah comes back and I think he will due to the issue with his ex wife, then Kiwi can rotate around like he did his rookie year. He can even be in the 4 aces, or play blitzing LB on passing downs like he did in the past.
The Giants probably have the 2 best starting ends, and the two strong young ends waiting in their wings. I think the comparative advantage Tuck has at DT is too great to not play him there on passing downs. His interior quickness is unmatched and it is amazing how quick he can penetrate right past a slower guard in such limited space.
I like Kiwi a lot as a football player and he is honestly big enough and fast enought to play LB, but he is faster than he is quick and more ideal for DE with the height/long arms/ and quick first step.
I want the G-Men to bring in a solid vet/1st or 2nd round stud OLB to play Sam. Maybe Dan Conners or Keith Rivers.
66
No, the Eagles were not better than the Giants last year. In the second game, the last field goal attempt hit the right upright, but it was barely within Akers range. Furthermore, that FG attempt was only set by a Brandon Jacobs fumble that happened on the tail end of a 30 yard run to the Eagles five yard line. On that play, the Eagles benefitted from some good ole' FO fumble luck.
We all know what happened in the first game to the tune of 12 sacks. But if you want to beleive that the Eagles, with four scoring drives (one touchdown) in eight quarters against the Giants, were actually the better team, go ahead. Maybe believing in swagger is stupid, but so is blindly following DVOA and ignoring the fact that the Eagles couldn't keep their quarterback upright and produced only ONE decent drive in two games against the Giants.
Keep the reverse FOMBC coming guys.
I love the comments along the lines of 'if Samuel makes the pick' or 'if Smith doesn't dig a ball out of the turf and hand it to the pats'. If you assume only that Eli's bad breaks hadn't happened, he'd have better stats (and the G's likely win by more than 3). If you assume only that his good breaks didn't happen, he'd have worse stats, and they'd lose. This tells you what? Nothing. In any close game if you changed the outcome of a couple of plays (frequently involving some degree of luck), the score would likely be reversed.
What if both Smith and Samuel catch their balls? Most likely a final score of Giants 17 Pats 14.
68
A Pats Safety dropped a pick on that drive also. I've never seen a player get more credit for great decision making than Eli Manning, who made some awful decisions but just happened to not be punished by them.
If you're playing Russian Roulette and the other guy gets shot down the stretch, it doesn't mean you were somehow skilled or you made a good decision. You just didn't get the chamber with the bullet in it.
#70 Yes, that resentment is palpable. How would you feel if you spent months working on your science project, only to have it self-destruct during show and tell?
Not a lot of respect for the FB...
So I'll be the third to mention it : Tapeh is now with the Vikings where he reunites with Brad Childress and will replace Tony Richardson.
How is Tapeh ? Is he a fine receiver ? Could the vikings be the rare team where the FB is a better receiver and a lesser blocker than their TE (Mr Kleinsasser) ?
#62, 64: All I heard after the game was Samuel's "dropped" interception. I didn't remember a drop. Looking at the replay, the ball glances off the fingers of his right handa at 90mph. That's not a drop. Corey Webster in the Dallas game with a ball in his lap all alone...THAT was a drop. As evidenced by Samuel's play, the "overthrow" to Burress, and Romo's "overthrow" to Crayton at the end of that game, sometimes the bad throw is actually a bad play by the receiver who is not where the qb thought he should be.
Maybe I am being defensive here, but look at Roethlesburger's numbers in his super bowl and all he gets is "the youngest qb to ever win a Super Bowl." He won that Super Bowl? No, the Steelerswon it, almost in spite of him. You keep bashing Eli. Unstoppable? No, but give it a rest.
55: I think your forgetting about Tuck. He had 10 sacks this year and dominated in the SB. He's a DE, even though they lined him up at DT mostly during passing downs. If Strahan retires Tuck should replace him. Tuck is very similar to Strahan, he's plays the run as well as he plays the pass and his bull rush is a thing of beauty.
I see Tuck taking Strahans place and Kiwi staying on as an LB. He did get abused the first two games, but then again that was against the Packers and the Cowboys and he'd never played LB before. He got better as the season went on, he'd definitely make and excellent pass rushing OLB eventually. On obvious passing downs I see them moving Kiwi to DE and Tuck to DT for the 4 Aces package.
Kiwi ended the season with 46 Tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 4 passes defensed in only 9 full games (his first games at OLB ever). For comparison, Kawika Mitchell had 76 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 4 passes defensed in 16 games. It's likely that Kiwi would have put up better numbers than a Mitchell (a 5 year veteran at OLB) if he had played the entire year. I'd say he deserves a shot at OLB again. Wilkinson impressed me the first Pats games with his ridiculous speed. He was stuck covering Moss TWICE in that game, an OLB verus Randy Moss and he stayed with him the entire way. He got called for PI once in the end zone, but how many OLBs would have been right on Randy Moss in the end zone to defend against a deep pass?
The S crop this year is pretty poor, I'd like to see us take the best LB available or a good LT (this class is deep at LT) if one is available for our first pick. I'd like to see a tall possession receiver at some point also since Toomer is getting old and we seem to be stocking up on short injury prone WRs.
74. I love the " we should count the almost interception" against Eli talk.
So we hate the guy so much we should count the dropped interceptions as picks on his stats too ? Should we count the 5 or 6 dropped competions he had too, including a Kevin Boss ball in the endzone? How about leading the league in dropped balls in the reg season ?
Tom Brady threw more picks in the playoffs than Eli did, and Eli played in one extra game. Oh, but he sucks and is comperable to Trent "game manager" Dilfer and certainly isn't as good as Jason " smoke screen" Campbell.
John- If you like Tuck at DE so much then why not have him at DE on obvious passing downs?
Let's just assume Kiwi and Tuck are equals at end. Tuck is much better at DT and that is a fact. His quickness in space is unmatched by anyone not named Harris.
DE is a more important position than SAM, and if they can have Kiwi as a stud at DE then they should keep him there. Tuck can be an equal DE or the 2nd best pass rushing DT in the league. They should keep it at that.
I was never big on Mitchell in the first place. Sure, Kiwi can be at least an average OLB, or he can be a stud end. Keep him there. David Ricardo's law of comparitvae advantage from the 1800's says so.
74:
FO: "Our analysis shows this deck of cards is 25% diamonds."
Doofus: "Diamonds rule! Here I'll draw one. HA! A Diamond! That proves the deck is mostly diamonds! Diamonds outnumber all other suits!"
FO: "Past draws have been about 25% diamonds."
Doofus: "Past, shmast! Diamonds rule!"
FO: "OK, let's look at the cards."
Doofus: "Uhhhh, but the deck is changed since then. This is a new deck. You only get to draw once."
FO: "Sigh. I give up. See ya next year."
Doofus: "Jeez. Those guys are so resentful."
78: Great analogy, but if you're looking at the deck and someone draws 10, 11, 12, diamonds in a row you might decide the composition of the deck isn't as you assumed at the start. Or you might decide they are the luckiest card picker ever.
45, 57: “The thing that jumps out to me is the fact that D-Lew would rather have an Eli Manning with a ring on his finger than a Jason Campbell…†I don’t know where you picked this up. The way I read the article, Mr. Lewin (D-Lew?) was simply asserting that Campbell played better within his system than Manning played in his. He then proceeded to state that because Campbell’s system is changing, Campbell may play more poorly next year.
“…who was benched late in the year in favor of career backup Todd Collins.†Personally, I’d take Steve Young, who was benched late in the year (’91) for career backup Steve Bono, over either Campbell or Elisha. But more to the point, considering the way Campbell, Collins, and Manning all played during the regular season, I think most people would’ve taken Collins. I noted in another thread that Collins’ DVOA and DPAR were near the top of the league (3rd?) during the time he played.
“Blindly comparing their DVOA is absurd. The Redskins had the most vanilla offense in the league full of WR screens, 2 yard fullback passes, and 5 yard tight end drags.†Yep, those 18 catches by fullbacks (17 by Sellars; 1 by Koslowski) were certainly a crucial component of their offense! They actually ran WR screens considerably less frequently than in previous years, probably because the guy they like to run those for (Moss) was hurt for a substantial part of the year.
In the Tampa and @Dal games, Campbell definitely came up short. But I’d say that it was pretty much Campbell, and...Campbell who kept them in the DAL and PHI games in the first place. As for the first Giants game…I have to admit, Campbell really choked by letting the Giants stop Betts on third and fourth down, both from the one. He didn’t block anybody! Actually, it's funny that you cite this game as an example of clock management, because it was actually PERFECT management: If Betts can score from the one on either of his two chances, the 'Skins go ahead with about 30 seconds left. The clock didn't run out on them; the Giants kneeled to end the game.
I have no idea why you enjoy ripping him so much, but I think Campbell is a decent young QB who’s going to start in a new system (again!) that may not play to his strengths.
What is most comical about the hostility towards, aversion to, and irrational hatred of giving the Giants [b]their due[/b] is that it is from nearly everyone the website. Not limited to one writer, this inability to admit the possibility of subjective editorializing slipping into their works is widespread here.
Fervent defensive posturing when people dare criticize an interesting, useful system of numbers that helps explain part of the picture but fails to explain everything -- which is no slight whatsoever against DVOA, by the way -- or job requirement when applying? You decide.
45
Campbell was not benched. He was injured. Why rush him back from injury when the backup is playing well? What do you think the Redskins are, the Bears?
85. Campbell reiterated that he was healthy enough to play but he didn't play. What do you want to call it? It wasn't that he was " coming back", or " 85%" or any of that. He said he was healthy enough to play but his coach chose to go with the other guy who played better ( and many say Al Saunders liked Collins better anyway) where a