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12 Mar 2008
FO Mailbag: Averagest... Teams... Ever
Andrew Apold: This may sound like a weird question... but statistically, what was the most average (or median) season of all the seasons that FO has charted?
I thought this question would make a fun little mailbag bit. This list gives us the teams closest to 0% in the current version of DVOA. Obviously, that can change each time I upgrade the formula.
Believe it or not, the most average team over the 13-year period played just this past season.
5 most average teams
2007 Bengals: 0.1%
2002 Browns: -0.2%
2001 Broncos: 0.3%
2004 Jaguars: 0.4%
2003 Panthers: 0.4%
Yes, that's the 2003 Panthers team that won the NFC.
5 most average offenses
2000 Saints: 0.0%
1996 Steelers: 0.1%
2004 Raiders: 0.1%
2005 Raiders: -0.1%
2001 Cardinals: -0.2%
5 most average defenses
1997 Jets: -0.1%
2006 Cowboys: -0.1%
2003 Eagles: 0.1%
2007 Bills: 0.1%
1997 Falcons: 0.2%
5 most average special teams
2001 Cardinals: 0.0%
1995 Raiders: 0.0%
2005 Eagles: 0.0%
1998 Steelers: 0.0%
2007 Bucs: 0.1%
Note that these numbers may differ slightly from what you see on the stats pages due to small corrections. Cincinnati actually has gone from -0.1% to 0.1% thanks to corrections made on the 2007 season.
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I find it really interesting that all the "average" teams are teams that are good on one side of the ball and bad on the other. I would've expected there to be a few teams that were completely average on both sides, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
Extra Medium.
Is this interesting?
Score one for your metrics. I can't remember any of these teams.
Is the average record for the teams closest to average 8-8?
Averagest… Thread… Ever
I'd kill for the Eagles special teams to get back to average.
What makes a man go neutral? Lust for gold? Power? Or were you just born with a heart full of neutrality?
Re 6
Briliant!!
And which average team - say between +2 and -2 % DVOA - was, on average, most consistently average: that is, had the lowest variance? Or the smallest difference between offense, defense and special teams DVOA?
I read this question differently - which season had the least variance in dvoa between all it's teams? I guess that equates to: which season had the most "parity"? ?
I would find that more interesting than which teams got 0.1% closer to the slightly arbitrary middle-DVOA score.
The 2007 Bengals: chaotic average.
For years all I would tell people is that as a Bengals fan I just wanted to have a normal, average football team NOT the sucktastic 16 non-winning seasons team that I was rooting for. You know, just a couple of playoff appearances with shots at the playoffs in the other years and maybe a down year or two. 2004 = 8-8, 2006 = 8-8, 2007 = 8-8 and the most average team ever according to DVOA.
Be careful what you wish for...
If you are very very average. Are you still average?
I'm curious about some sort of variance-weighted averageness, and also something that weights all averageness of all 3 units separately...
#11 - actually one of the FO interns asked if that was what I had meant when I submitted the question... and even then was asking to clarify if I meant most teams near 0% or fewest outliers.
I guess I was just looking for a baseline benchmark, so when I think of teams as being above or below that point, I had something in mind than a number. And now I do, the 2007 Bengals.
This makes eager to hear if they ever get around to answering my question about how defensive production varies over number of plays faced.
Excellent #8, Zap would be proud
Considering that the Seahawks spent about 10 years going 8-8 (now going 9-7 and winning the division!), I can't believe they aren't somewhere on the most average list.
Have a day.
Would this sound better if it was "Meanest Teams Evar!!!!"?
Meanest teams ever, ar ar.
I do like the spinoff to this question: what was the season with the most parity?
What about taking it to the next level? The Bengals have a good O/bad D so while they're average overall, their components are not average.
So, why not the absolute value of O + the absolute value of D + the absolute value of ST? I'd say a team thats +10% O, -10% D is less "average" than one that was +1 O, -2 D...
The seasons with the lowest standard deviation are 1997 and 2003.
2003's top team, Kansas City, is not even one of the all-time DVOA top 35. 31 of 32 teams were between -25% and 28%, but there was one outlier, Arizona was last at -42.8%.
1997 had a few more teams at the edges, but no one team that stood out like the 2003 Cardinals, and every team was between -26% and 28%.
#14
The abnormally average being?
extremely, exceptionally, excessively, insanely, the ultimate, to the nth degree, beyond all others, immeasurably, phenomenally, wholly, unanimously, widely recognized as, to-the-bone, unapologetically, born-to-be, genetically predisposed to be, middle-of the stack, center of the barrel, just another in line.... average.
By God--damned by no praise at all.
#26, Bobman
That is an impressive sentence.
Great. Now we're going to have to sit through 400+ comments of irrational tim couch/jake delhomme comparisons.
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