Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Mar 2008

Jason Elam Signs in Atlanta

I honestly had no idea there was even a possibility of Jason Elam leaving Denver. He goes home to Atlanta, which is actually where he grew up. Elam has played 15 seasons in Denver since the Broncos took him in the third round of the 1993 draft. In a few years, this will be one of those player-jersey combinations that seems completely ridiculous, like Franco Harris with the Seahawks or Joe Namath with the Rams.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 21 Mar 2008

1
by RyanHarris (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 6:13pm

Atlanta is doing a really good job of rebuilding their team.

Elam is a great signing for any team. His value is even higher for a team like Atlanta who definitely will not be blowing out any teams, and will probably be in a lot of close games.

Atlanta also now has 3 2nd round picks, so if there is a player that The Falcons covet they now have the ammo to trade up and grab him.

Between Turner and Norwood the Falcons will be able to rely on their running game while they allow their young QB (Brohm, Falco, Henne, Ryan) to mature.

On another note how does Denver let this guy go? Wow I cant wait till they lose on a missed FG that (insert rookie kickers name) misses.

Bad move by Shanny and Co.

2
by RyanHarris (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 6:14pm

Oops, I meant Flacco.

There was a rerun of The Replacements and I must have thought of Keanu aka Shane Falco.

My bad.

3
by David (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 6:30pm

Well, boo on this. And given how close the contract numbers were, I'm very mad that this happened. But at the same time, the Broncos are obviously looking to save every dime they can this year and there's some bumbling, stumbling efforts at a youth movement going on, I guess. But his range has been steadily shrinking, his health has been less and less stable, and everytime we had to change his holder, we were treated to weeks of Elam sentences that started with "I'm not complaining about my holder, but..." I love Jason Elam, and I think it's obscene that he's going to another team, but he's not the same player he was even just a few years ago, and if the Falcons think that bringing in a 38 year old on a 4 year deal is worth it, they're probably right, even just for the example he sets in a locker room. Good luck Elam, and when you go into the Hall of Fame, be sure you go in as a Bronco.

4
by Sophandros (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 7:02pm

The best part about this signing is that if Elam gets hurt, the Falcons will probably call up Morten Anderson. Again.

5
by Bronco Jeff (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 7:26pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

Seriously.

This sucks...sad day to be a Broncos fan.

6
by PerlStalker (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 9:15pm

As a Bronco fan, I'll miss Elam but I think letting him go is better than taking having him take up as much cap space as he is. I've sort of been waiting for the Broncos to move on at K the last couple of years.

7
by Torn (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 10:58pm

Not a good last couple of weeks for Denver fans, eh? Sure he was aging but...it's like seeing Montana play for a different team, doesn't seem right. And he was still pretty decent...meh

8
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Fri, 03/21/2008 - 11:34pm

Broncos to have major problesm in 2008. Team lose best player. What does it sya when best player on teaam is kicker? It say team has massive problems. Broncos not going to be very good in 2008,. maybe be relly bad like Chiefs. maybe teams go combined 7-26. with 2 of wins comibng when teams play each other, so rrwally only like 5 wins combine.d not good day for brcons fan

9
by kibbles (not verified) :: Sat, 03/22/2008 - 1:57am

A few thoughts.

First off, I don't agree that this is one day going to seem like one of those player/jersey combinations that's hard to picture. Elam might have another 8 years left in his career. 8 years from now we might be saying "remember when Elam was a Bronco?" Besides, teams have franchise QBs, and franchise RBs... but they don't have franchise kickers.

Second, I have nothing but love for Jason Elam. He was so money. You look at his total accuracy and you'd think it's only mediocre, but that's just the Simpson's Paradox at work- Elam's accuracy at 50+ yards, 40-50 yards, 30-40 yards, and 20-30 yards were all well above average, but since he attempted so many 50+ yarders, the total figure looks lower (for instance, Elam was significantly more accurate than Adam Vinatieri on all field goals except for 40-50 yarders, but Vinatieri is way ahead on career accuracy because Elam's attempted so many bombs). Elam's "clutch" field goal percentage is also comparable to Vinatieri's. He's way ahead of Anderson's scoring pace, and he owns all sorts of records to start his career (and will set a bunch of career records before he's done). I've always said that Elam will be the guy that keeps Morten out of the HoF, because by the time Morten's up for the vote, Elam will already be passing his numbers.

Now, with all of that said, I'm not that bothered by letting Elam go. Rationally I'm not. Emotionally, it's very depressing... but rationally, a kicker's scoring has more to do with the team than it does with the kicker (see Rackers, Neil), so Elam scoring 100+ for 15 straight years is a comment on Denver's offensive prowess and Elam's own durability more than anything else. Second, like FO's data has shown, accuracy is wildly inconsistent from year to year, while leg strength is not, and Elam's leg strength is no longer elite. He hasn't handled kickoffs in half a decade, forcing Denver to go with a P/KO specialist and resulting in very poor kickoffs for years now. Denver's FG/XP and KO units have totaled -1.2, +5.9, and -11.4 DPAR the last three years- it's not like this is an elite kicking unit that Denver's breaking up here.

I wish Elam all the best, I hope he extends his streak of 100+ points to 20+ years and SHATTERS all of the kicking records (especially Anderson's scoring and 50+ yarder records)... but I'm fine with Denver's decision to move on without him. When it comes to kickers, name brands just cost too much for what they give you. Just look at Vinatieri vs. Gostkowski.

10
by RobM (not verified) :: Sat, 03/22/2008 - 4:37am

This really really sucks. For me that's like Elway, Mecklenburg, Nalen, Dennis or Rod Smith not finishing their career as a Bronco.

Maybe we should sign Morten Anderson. Up in Mile High he could kick for another ten years.

11
by MarkV (not verified) :: Sat, 03/22/2008 - 12:16pm

I agree with 9. Elam is a very franchise style player, and its wierd thinking about another kicker.

That said he is getting older and losing some range. He doesnt do kickoffs and really really hates it that his holder keeps changing on him. The Broncos punting and KOS has been much more difficult to work out because of him, and it has sometimes cost a roster spot to keep him (for a punter and a kos). That and if there is a good young kicker out there to draft, it will save money. I think the deal is good.

12
by Hummingbird Cyborg (not verified) :: Sat, 03/22/2008 - 6:41pm

I wish him success in Atlanta. He has had a tremendous career and has been quite underrated.

Still, his range has gone down quite a bit.

This won't affect Denver all that much. It's more that we Denver fans like Elam, but he isn't as talented as he used to be.

Him and Denver had basically agreed to a deal, but he wanted a certain amount of guaranteed money that Denver didn't want to give him because of his age. That's what stalled the deal. Denver wisely decided not to pay a player of his age guaranteed money.

13
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Sat, 03/22/2008 - 10:22pm

There's not enough money in this deal to really hurt the Falcons, but they're still clearly overpaying for a kicker who only even still looks employable because he plays half his games at altitude. A guy who doesn't do kickoffs had better be an elite field goal kicker to even justify a roster spot, much less a big (for a kicker) contract. And why, for the love of God, does a team with no earthly hope of competing this season (or probably next) feel the nned to go out and spend on a 38 year old kicker? Bring every rookie you can find into camp and set yourself up for the next decade if one of them works out.

14
by LI Matt (not verified) :: Sun, 03/23/2008 - 6:28am

Yes, he loses (some of) the altitude (Atlanta is ~1000 ft), but he also loses the wind, and the snow, and the chewed-up turf.

Does that work out to an even trade? We'll see.

15
by Herm? (not verified) :: Sun, 03/23/2008 - 7:12am

Here to extend my sympathies to the Broncos fans. I remember when Vinatieri left the Pats. That was rough, and despite what he did, I would not consider him as much a Patriot as I would consider Elam a Bronco..does that make sense? Anyways, sorry Broncos fans!

To Aaron's uniform statement, I'll add Montana in a Chiefs uniform, and if I can cross pollenate, Bobby Orr in a Blackhawks uniform.

16
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Sun, 03/23/2008 - 7:26am

According to FO's numbers, Denver's FG/XP unit has been worth a mean of 0.233 points per season over league average for the last three years, once adjustments for stadia are factored in. Unless there was a big chunk of 2005 that Elam missed and someone lousy played, I can't see the merit in spending big on a league average field goal kicker who doesn't kick off.

17
by Giudo Merkens (not verified) :: Sun, 03/23/2008 - 11:37am

when the Broncos suck again this year, who will Shanahan blame? he's running out of goats.

18
by Mr Shush (not verified) :: Sun, 03/23/2008 - 10:47pm

Cutler's too good for the Broncos to suck this year. If they can fix their run defense to the point where it is average, they will be a very dangerous team. I'm slightly surprised they weren't in the market for Rogers, Jenkins or Stroud.

19
by PaulH (not verified) :: Mon, 03/24/2008 - 12:13am

According to FO’s numbers, Denver’s FG/XP unit has been worth a mean of 0.233 points per season over league average for the last three years, once adjustments for stadia are factored in. Unless there was a big chunk of 2005 that Elam missed and someone lousy played, I can’t see the merit in spending big on a league average field goal kicker who doesn’t kick off.

I'm with you on this one. Elam isn't a bad kicker by any stretch, but probably nothing particularly special at this point either. He's nice to have on the roster, but I don't see where he is worth what they gave.

I'm just not so sold on the Falcons. They've done a nice jobs of getting a lot of draft picks to rebuild the roster, but the rest has been questionable. Spending huge bucks on an unproven tailback -- at least by the standards of carrying the ball all season -- didn't make much sense to me, especially considering their OL troubles and also the fact that they do a by-committee approach. And now you have this. Call me crazy, but I have a feeling Blank and McKay are going to drop the ball again.

20
by raiderbloe (not verified) :: Mon, 03/24/2008 - 1:10am

Great player and a great guy. I agree with the decision. I think Denver was reluctant to pay someone elite level @ the kicker position who didn't do kickoffs, especially playing half of your games at high altitude.

21
by fyo (not verified) :: Thu, 03/27/2008 - 9:53am

Learn to spell guys! It's Morten Andersen, with an E not an O.

Four references to the guy and not one correct spelling. You guys are all turning into RaiderJoe.

22
by Butt Luv (not verified) :: Fri, 04/25/2008 - 12:58am

I would luv to lick your virginal pussy and beautiful asscrack. My cock will feel so much better than your high school boyfriends and middle finger at 1200 midnight

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