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21 Jul 2008
Just reported, for a second-round pick and a fifth-round pick. This is the kind of deal where Football Outsiders really has nothing to add to the discussion. Jeremy Shockey is a better player than Kevin Boss. It's nice that Boss had a little run there at the end of last year, but he's not one of the top tight ends in the league. Jeremy Shockey is. This trade is all about personalities and team chemistry. Whether removing Shockey from the locker room is worth the downgrade at the starting tight end spot is simply not something that can be measured by DVOA.
Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 21 Jul 2008
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They just traded my favorite player on the team and my second favorite Giant ever after LT... the REAL LT.
That sucks.
Losing Shockey and Strahan drains a lot of talent from a team that had a good, but not great, level of talent to begin with.
Super Bowl Winner's Curse! Super Bowl Winner's Curse!
Jeremy Shockey...Bourbon Street...what could go wrong?
Seriously, love this deal for the Saints.
Going to be fascinating to see how Payton uses Bush now that they have a real pass-catching TE on the field. If Robert Meachem turns out to be anything at all this is going to be some offense.
I don't care for Shockey's personality but this seems like a relatively poor decision for the Giants. Shockey, despite the injuries and bad attitude is still one of the top TEs in the game. They didn't have a replacement in Kevin Boss and I'm not sure that even if the Saints are lousy this year and the Giants can packaged the 2 and 5 to move into the last half of the 1st that they'll find a TE nearly good enough to replace him.
This seems like an example of the outcome justifying the decisions ex post. We won the SB without Shockey last year therefore we don't need him to win the SB. Yeesh.
Shockey will rack up 900 yards if he stays healthy this season. Good deal for both sides, although the Giants just keep looking weaker to me.
This trade is a double edged sword for the NYG.
A highly-placed source within the NYG organization disclosed to me that trading Shockey will increase team chemistry by 32%.
However, there is apparently an associated 19% decrease in the team's swagger, resulting in a net gain of 13%.
Numbers don't lie. This trade makes all the sense in the world for the defending champs.
He's a twit, but was he really a locker room cancer? There is a big difference.
TO in Philly was a locker room cancer. TO in Dallas (so far) is just a twit.
This is potentially a great move for the Saints. Does this deal happen without the Jason Taylor trade though? Maybe PK was right, the Taylor trade set the standard for any other high-profile veteran deals this off-season.
Terrible deal for the Giants, who have few enough real stars on their team. Shockey is a great pass catching TE and, more importantly, can really block (which is a real question with Boss). The Giants will be clearly be a weaker team without him on the field.
At this point, the Giants look really foolish for turning down the same deal prior to the draft. Not only would they already have the two draft picks on their roster, but the Saints picks next year are likely to be later/worse than than 2008 picks.
I'd like to know if this significantly affects FO's assessment for E. Manning's breakout year. Listed as one of the top risers - with Shockey in the lineup - I'd have to guess that now we have to chop off 3 TD's and 400 yards from Manning's overall season prediction. That's based on simple subtraction of Boss's stats from Shockey's stats.
As a fantasy football owner I'm crying in my Blackened Voodoo over losing value from the year's best sleeper; and Brees, with the full preseason to develop chemistry with Shockey, now may get picked shortly after Romo is taken. As a Giants fan I'm rueing the third consecutive no-playoffs-after-winning-the-Super-Bowl year.
He's not that good.
#10: Excellent point. The previous offer of a 2008 2nd and 5th was MUCH more valuable.
The city of New Orleans is gonna love this dude. He's a Kyle Turley who can score TDs, and this town loved Turley.
First Strahan, now Shockey? This can't be good.
It's really not a bad deal for the Giants. It's a step down at the TE position, but I don't think any one in the organization expects him to be playing by week 17. They don't have a replacement of nearly his quality, but the offense is not built around highlighting a TE. And he clearly wanted out of NY, and it's still good value (though not quite as good as if they had done it on draft day.
The Saints get a guy who they will use more as a receiver and less as a blocker, so he should put up good numbers, and may actually stay healthy.
I think this is good, prob for both teams, but NYG would have been MUCH better served if this was for 2008 picks and not 2009. They've lost a lot in a short amount of time.
Not really on topic, but...
As a Saints fan, I'm often looking for more to read about the team. I followed the link to ESPN, then started reading comments on the ESPN site. I guess I needed a reminder that there are few web sites where reader comments aren't painful. Thanks FO for being one of them (irrational argument threads notwithstanding, and those are pretty easy to avoid).
While I hate to see him go, there are a few things to keep in mind with regards to Shockey.
2007: 21, 6
2006: 24, 14
2005: 18, 8
2004: 19, 8
2003: 21, 16
2002: 20, 6
Those are his ranks, each year, in DVOA and Total Yards/DPAR.
His run blocking makes him better than those rankings, but to what extent? Is he better than Boss? Absolutely. Was he one of the best tight ends in the game? I'm not certain.
Is this good value for him? Well, I don't know. I do know that draft picks next year won't help the Giants this year too much, and Shockey could have helped the Giants this year.
Shockey always seemed overrated to me. I don't think he's ever had a DYAR in the top 5 of TE's. 2nd Rd seems like a lot.
Oh and for the curious:
2008 draft 2nd rd NO chose CB Tracy Porter from Indiana (40th player taken) and NY took CB Terrell Thomas USC (63rd player taken).
#11 - Yea, definitely. I haven't gotten a look at the fantasy magazines out there (there's like 20 on the newsstands already!) but I had a feeling that Brees might be undervalued, so I was going to try to snag him. Eli Manning was who I was targetting as my 2nd QB, and he takes a hit on this now as well.
Personally, I don't think the deal is that bad for the Giants, though. It was pretty clear Shockey didn't want to be there anymore. I would have thought that a 2nd before the draft would have been enough.
What, statistically speaking, makes us think that Shockey is "one of the top" tight ends?
He's consistently in the neighborhood of 20th in DVOA rank for tight ends. He hangs out around 10th in DPAR/DYAR.
Those numbers look like a consistent but moderately talented TE in a system that uses him a lot.
It seems clear to me that the Giants didn't need Shockey. Eli seemed to be a better passer without Shockey in the game. Glad to see him move, but I don't think this trade will help the Saints all that much.
Re #21- blocking, man... blocking. Having a TE that is known for pass-catching (or dropping) be able to stay on the field and be a blocker as well opens up many more possibilities for the offense. A. Gates is always running a pattern. K. Brady is always staying in to block. Shockey is a top talent at both.
Great move by the Giants. Shockeys wheels are broken, and a 2 & 5 is far more valuable than his extra athletism offers. Once he gets nicked, he will lose his added value.
Sorry to hear the editor dismiss Boss' "little run"; I was hoping off season therapy would help.
Thinking about it a little bit more- I know Shockey ran a ton of option routes, which TEs typically don't run. An article on the WWL had Shockey as one of the toughest players to game plan for in the league, just cuz he ran routes that were so different from the typical TE. Taking Shockey out of the offense removed a lot of the optionality towards the end of the year, which, combined with an uptick in weather, really seemed to help the QB click. So hopefully from the Giants side they stick with a "simplified" offense. And from the Saints side Brees can handle Shockey's route adjustments. This could be a win-win.
Side note- does anyone know who becomes the Giants' blocking TE behind Boss?
#1: David Diehl?
Supposedly the Giants were working on a 3 way trade to get Taylor for Shockey (with NO involved) but once that opportunity was lost they made this move. So compared to the draft day trade this move is worse but at least there's a reason. Also Darcy Johnson might beat out Boss for the starting tight end job.
As a NOLA resident, I cheer pretty hard for the Saints, and I'll be up front, I do not like this deal. Period.
For the Saints, did they really even need Shockey? I understand that he is an upgrade over the guys currently on the roster, but the passing game was going to be the clear strength of the Saints regardless of whether or not Shockey was around. Moreover, we have absolutely no evidence whatsoever that would indicate that Shockey is a truly elite tight end, and obviously the Giants didn't need him to win.
For the Giants, it's just a harsh reality. This team wasn't all that good last year, and now without both Strahan and Shockey, things look pretty slim. I don't necessarily think it was a terrible idea to dump him -- especially if they choose wisely in the 2009 NFL Draft -- but it won't help anything in the short-term. I really don't think Shockey was all of that good, but Boss isn't a given either.
All in all, I'm just not a big fan of it, particularly from the Saints perspective. I'm glad they didn't give up Roman Harper for him -- which was rumored to be the Giants' asking price three months ago -- but by the same token he's going to have less time in the system now, too, so that's a trade-off.
I'm just not a big fan of this deal. I might be wrong, but I just don't like it. This seems like one of those deals, particularly for the Saints, that will get casual fans going nuts because it involves a name-brand player, but one that will not really make you win any more football games.
Does this deal marginally help Reggie Bush? Better blocking on the outside? Just thinking aloud here...
"This team wasn’t all that good last year, and now without both Strahan and Shockey, things look pretty slim"
Yes, but the Giants are Super Bowl champions, which makes up for any slights that opinion-givers will make.
A lot of people are referring to the removal of the option plays at TE as the reason for Manning's late season improvement (in addition to the weather). This is a valid point, but it doesn't address the underlying cause for the cause (if you get what I mean). It is a question of who was making the mistakes that lead to the picks and broken plays.
It has to have been either Shockey or Manning, and I have been of the opinion for a while that while Eli may not have Peyton's accuracy for the most part, his decision making has always been pretty good. It was a poster here who once said that on a special tour of the Giants facility (organised by a family member with ties to the organisation) one of the Giants offensive coaches said Manning had only made two incorrect calls on pass protection in two years starting every game. I have no access to comparable numbers from other NFL teams, but I suspect that kind of number is exceptional for an NFL QB. It isn't like he wasn't playing against Jim Johnson's Eagles defense four times during the period. It might be easier to make the correct call pre-snap, but that kind of understanding should tranlate at least in part to the correct read post-snap. At the very least it implies a level of preperation and knowledge of opponent's tendencies which are exemplary.
Which would make Shockey the problem. Possible reasons for this aren't too hard to think of. The fact that Shockey insists on working out in Miami rather than getting his routes down perfectly with Manning is one. The Giants organisation's dissatisfaction with Shockey in this regard is well documented. Let's face it, not having one of your primary targets full cooperation with his QB during the offseason can hardly help matters. Not being a happy camper would not improve things either. He does come across as a bit of a prima donna at times, and that is on the occasions when he doesn't say something really stupid and/or unhelpful to his organisation.
Obviously some of these problems could resurface with the Saints. If Shockey still isn't willing to make the neccessary commitment to his team, he will continue to struggle to find synergy with his QB. If I were Mickey Loomis I would want to build substantial inducements into any new contract that I gave Shockey that virtually guaranteed his full participation in offseason workouts and team activities. If Shockey sees his change of scenery as a clean slate to fill up with fresh antics then the same problems that caused a team to trade one of the most talented TEs in football then he may become a source of disharmony for the Saints too. He does clearly upgrade an already strong offense.
Stu, obviously if Shockey blocks well it helps Bush when he takes a handoff, but I'd also say that a tight end who can stretch the deep middle in the passing game, thus drawing a safety with him, helps get Bush singled up on a linebacker, with no help nearby.
For this to work out for the Giants, in addition to the blocking issues, someone has to step up to be a consistent third target behind Burress and Toomer (esp. because Amani's getting old). Steve Smith is the most likely candidate, but it could be Boss or Manningham. It ain't going to be Tyree or Sinorice Moss.
1. NO will get better
2. NO paid too much
No tight end outside of Antonio Gates is worth a 2nd round draft choice. Let alone a 5th.
Who in their right mind would rather have Shockey than Taylor?!
Wow.
What's the over/under on how long it takes for Shockey to feel overlooked because of all the attention Bush gets? I'd put it at a year, but with Sean Payton there maybe it pushes up to 2.
Talented guy. But never as good as he thinks he is.
Good deal for the Giants. Yes, this makes them a worse team this year, but in the long-run it's a slam dunk. They already captured the vast majority of Shockey's prime, during which he was constantly battling injuries. The chances that he'll have a healthy decline phase are about nil. The chances that they could have gotten anywhere near as much for Shockey next year are about nil. They're selling high.
Or, look at it this way: the Giants used the 14th overall selection in 2002 to take Shockey, and let's say that the Saints' mean 2009 2nd Rounder is the 54th overall pick. By completing this trade, the Giants have effectively moved down 40 spots in order to rent a very good TE for six years out of his seven or eight year prime. Repeat that sort of process ad infinitum and your team can be perpetually young and stacked.
Re 31
I cannot believe someone remembered that anecdote of mine! That's impressive haha.
Yeah, it was November 2006 before the game against the Houston Texans. The coach was raving about that statistic of his because it spoke volumes of Eli's football acumen, diligence in the film room, and his decision making.
Your post makes a ton of sense regarding why it took so long for this level of decision making to translate from pass protection calls pre-snap for the offensive line into post-snap choices of where to throw the ball and when. I tend to believe it was a combination of Eli simply playing better football overall and the elimination of the needlessly complex option routes.
I was thinking that a really smart team would flip Kevin Boss while he's hot rather than Shockey.
spare a thought for the Eric-Johnson-for-fantasy-sleeper movement. Those braves chaps have taken a hit today.
The Saints really, really needed a decent TE. Just not "2nd and 6th rounder" needed.
Paid too much. I'm sure I can find a "games lost due to injury" stat, but I'm wondering how many games Shockey has had reduced effectiveness due to injury throughout his career. I seem to think of him as invariably injured one way or another.
At this point, the Giants look really foolish for turning down the same deal prior to the draft. Not only would they already have the two draft picks on their roster, but the Saints picks next year are likely to be later/worse than than 2008 picks.
Very true, but trading him now for an inferior package is better than keeping him, when he clearly didn't want to be there. At least they didn't follow up one mistake with another because they were overly concerned about looking bad.
I think the Saints paid more than they might have preferred. However, one of the most important aspects of a pass-catching TE (or receiver) is chemistry and experience with a QB. I think this helps explain why Jeremy underperformed in pass-catching situations. He insisted on practicing in Miami rather than building the sort of chemistry Peyton has with some of his receivers.
Will Jeremy be an improvement? Yes. However, unless he plays at a top level for 4+ years and practices with Brees in the off-season I do not think an average pass-catching (and maybe above-average blocking) TE is worth a 2nd round pick.
On the other hand, the Giants had a TE who could have improved their team. (and was not counting for much against the cap) They won the Super Bowl as a result of a great Defensive Line and peaking to win the right 4 games. However, I still believe that they were not the best team in the NFL last season and look a little weaker this year.
Re #31:
Please don't scapegoat Shockey because he chooses to work out down in Coral Gables in the offseason. It's not like he and Eli were teammates for only a year or two; they have had plenty of time to work on their chemistry and timing. Also, Shockey is hardly the only former Cane in the NFL who trains on the UM campus in the offseason. It didn't seem to stifle Kellen Winslow's chemistry with Derek Anderson this past year.
(Disclaimer: I do not claim to be unbiased on this point. Sorry.)
43. While I don't either disagree or agree with you per se, I will say that Derek Anderson and Kellen Winslow did not always seem to be on the same page throughout the year (though the stats will say otherwise, I know). There were plenty of throws that Winslow had to make acrobatic catches on and plenty of "threw outside when the receiver broke inside" plays. But then, they barely had a full offseason to prepare, I agree that Shockey/Manning have no such excuse.
It's not on-topic but it concerns NFCE.
It seems TO is a good guy.
The cowboys are going to need him for their karma.
Link in my name.
44 - Actually, the stats *do* back you up (as will I, who watched plenty of Browns games and saw Anderson throw somewhere in the general direction of where Winslow might plausibly have been on several occasions). Winslow's catch rate last year was 55%, the lowest amongst tight ends with a positive DYAR.
Sure, that's more or less dead on Derek Anderson's completion %, but normally an elite TE will have a higher catch% than the QB, viz Gates 64% vs Rivers 60%, Witten 68% vs Romo 64%, Miller 77% vs Roethlisberger 65%
If Shockey ever stays healthy for a year, he'll have the potential to be an elite tight end. However, he will need an attitude adjustment as well, both on and off the field. He's consistently hurt his team with dumb penalties, frequently taken after big plays. As his team went on their superbowl run, he showed an attitude that if he wasn't 'the guy' then he didn't care about the team. His insistence on being traded away from the SB champions shows a major character flaw. As a Giants fan I say that yes, it hurts the team this year, but better to move on. When I think about Shockey as a Giant, my overriding thought is of wasted potential.
My biggest problem with Shockey (as a Giants fan) is that he would consistently never play until the whistle. If a ball thrown in his direction was intercepted, he would rarely run after the defender who had the ball (most of the time he would stand and sulk). While I cannot discuss the quality of his blocking at the line, he's rarely the guy you'd see running down the field trying to make a 2nd or 3rd block.
The worst thing I ever saw him do was in a game sometime in the last 2 years (sorry, I cannot remember which game)- Giants had the ball on their own 15 or 20, 2nd or 3rd down, and Manning threw a ball over the middle that was to Jeremy's left as he cut across the middle from the right hand side. He lazily reached out for the ball with both hands (even managed to hold on for a second), when a LB comes over and just rips the ball out of his breadbasket and take it back for 6. The reason the LB had such a clear path to the end zone is b/c instead of running after the defender Shockey decides to walk over to the referee and complain about PI- WHILE THE PLAY IS STILL GOING!! You could tell he was more pissed about his own stats than the fact that they Giants were now down 7 more points.
28 - You're taking a pretty harsh view of this deal. Don't just think of the upgrade of Shockey over Johnson. Think of the effect it could have on Colston and Bush to be on the field with Shockey.
It's going to be hard to double-team Colston and leave Shockey in single coverage against a linebacker. It's also going to be hard to bring a safety into the box knowing that Shockey might run right by the guy covering him.
I think Colston will also have a positive effect on Shockey, who has never played with a truly elite receiver. When Colston is double-teamed Shockey will feast.
I trust Payton, both as a talent evaluator and a creative Xs and Os guy. If he thought Shockey was worth this year's second, I'm inclined to be excited about the possibilities. I can't wait to watch this offense.
Last I checked Roy Williams is still in the NFC East and unless he ends up on the Panthers, Bucs or Falcons Shockey will remain the same player he has been the last 3 years. Over-hyped with a big mouth and declining skills.
When I think Shockey, I always think about the ill-timed celebration.
Unfortunately I can't find a youtube link.
Little help please?
49 - Is Colston really that much more "elite" that Plaxico Burress? Neither one is exactly Jerry Rice in their prime. I would say Colston's certainly more reliable but less explosive; catches more consistently, but less of a deep threat.
Why does everybody automatically think about Kevin Boss. The Giants drafted Mario Manningham in the 3rd round, S.Smith in round 2 last year, and Sinorice Moss 2 years ago. Maybe the Giants will run more Shotgun 4 WR sets now that Eli Manning is poised for his best year. Don't just pencil in Boss for Shockey, think about the possible philisophical impact too.
It's not like the Giants suffer in power running situations, FO has them ranked #1, the Giants can still use Boss when needed but I'd have a hunch we see more 4WR sets this year which better isolates our play makers.
Eli Manning often times looks a lot better running hurry up and "muddle huddle" than the conventional offense. Maybe they could speed up the pace by having Manningham or Moss on the field instead of Shockey.
Randy Moss is traded for a 4th rounder but Jermey Shockey is traded for a 2 and 5. The poster who says the Giants "rented" a pro bowl tight end for 6 years has it right. You draft the guy in the middle of the 1st round and then use him for 6 years and trade him for pretty good value.
The Giants do run a lot of option routes ( not just for TE's) and everybody has to be on the exact same page. There was a play, maybe in the Seattle game where Eli was screaming at Toomer after a failed conversion because he cut his drag route towards the left sideline short. There are other examples but running the option offense is a lot more difficult but with bigger potential reward. A QB needs so much acumen and the coach needs confidence in him that most teams don't even bother running those offenses.
My favorite Shockey plays were his first preseason game where he barreled over a Texan cb in the hall of fame game and scampered along for a big gain, and scoring the winning TD in Philly a few years ago over Brian Dawkins and punting the ball into the stands.
One more thing to keep in mind is that in the limited time in charge, Gerry Reese has drafted very well. You sleep on that 5th round pick, but the guy drafted Ahmad Bradshaw in round 7. He had Michael Johnson starting games at safety who was another late round pick. Boss was a mid round pick etc. Manningham at the end of round 3 could end up being a steal.
Obviously Shockey is a better player than Boss, but the question is which one is a better value?
I'm a Plax fan but I think Colston is quite a bit better. Colston caught almost 30 more balls last year and is five years younger.
Plax should face more double coverage this year without Shockey, and Colston will be in just the opposite situation. Will be interesting to see how they each fare. I think by the end of this year Colston will be in the conversation when we talk about who is the best receiver in the league.
The context of the discussion is as interesting as the discussion itself; if Scott Paoli had traded a former #1 in decline phase for a #2 & #5, would the editors as passive?
PFT reports that the secound and fifth could become a first if Vilma plays 85% of the defensive snap and is signed to an extension, because, in this case, the Saints would have to send their second-rounder to the Jets.
And Tom, I'm with you, I think Jerry Reese is a very good GM and the treatment of this story would be different if Watson was the player involved.
PFT hasn't corrected it yet, but apparently the highest the Jets can get from the Saints is a 3rd, so this was just a mistake.
Ok, thanks.
The Giants leased J-Shock for 6 years and traded away a 1st round pick for a 2nd and 5th rounder. Good deal.
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