Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Aug 2008

FO Live Blog: Hall of Fame Game

Myself, Mike Tanier, and Doug Farrar fielded questions from readers and gave our instant analysis of an utterly meaningless football game for three hours Sunday night. Ah, the first game of the year.

Click here to view the archived version of the chat.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 03 Aug 2008

1
by BucKai (not verified) :: Sun, 08/03/2008 - 10:51pm

Madden made a comment about an HoF inductee who had scored nine different ways in a single game. Anyone know the details?

Seriously, was this guy playing both ways, in addition to kicking and returning?

Say he scores rushing, receiving, punt return & kick return. Then what? Put him in on D for a fumble recovery/score, pick-6 and a safety. That gives him seven.

At that point does he become the kicker and go for some combination of field goal, extra-point or drop kick?

And who was the opponent? Was this like USC vs. Our Lady of Eternal Suffering JV?

Unrelated, Al & John seemed to be in preseason mode also. When they were talking about the retractable roof at Indy's new stadium, John thought that Dungy's ability to determine if the roof would be open or not would create a distinct strategic advantage.

Not to be outdone, Al postulated that the roof position would probably be weather related. Gee guys, thanks for the amazing insights. Definitely added to my understanding of the game.

2
by Doug Farrar :: Sun, 08/03/2008 - 11:21pm

Argh. I actually do know that the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Field both have FieldTurf. Synapses not firing.

3
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 2:39am

To respond to one comment: yeah, Todd Collins was 5/6, so Colt Brennan's 9/10 might not look that impressive. Except Collins was 5/6 for 32 yards, whereas Brennan was 9/10 for 123 yards. Slight difference.

Obviously you can't anoint Brennan as an NFL quarterback based on performance in the third quarter of a preseason game. Duh. But it's definitely an encouraging sign.

After all, Brennan was just a late-round pick. If all he ever becomes is a serviceable backup QB, that's a decent draft pick.

4
by Quentin (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 8:10am

He had a lot of starts and a huge comp%, so if he were a 1st/2nd-rounder I'd say it would look really good.

I see a lot of people trying to ignore the draft position and try to use a high starts/completion percentage as a way of talking themselves into some late round pick or another. I think if you're gonna try and do that, leave starts out of it. If anything, a high number of starts is probably a negative indicator because it means they probably fell for a good reason (though you can still argue that they gained experience, I guess). I think I'd rather look for hope in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown to interception ratio (go Josh Johnson!).

Fun read all in all.

5
by Quentin (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 8:30am

I guess high starts shows an ability to sustain a high completion percentage and whatnot, but if the guy's from a big school I think I'd prefer a late round gamble on a prospect who looks good but is an unknown quantity than a guy who all the scouts tell me- after putting down a pretty large body of work on film- is not cut out for the league.

6
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 9:48am

#5 - Brennan fell in part b/c the system he played in does not translate to many pro offensive systems. His best fit with his skill set is the WCO. There were not many WCO (or WCO-style) teams in the market for a back-up QB in this draft (maybe GB, who took Flynn after Brennan came off the board).

Word was that WAS was coveting Josh Johnson prior to his selection by TB in the 5th round (WAS did not have a 5th round pick).

He got away with an ill-advised pass over the middle in the game (thankfully the WR made a beautiful catch) but Brennan's accuracy looked superb. He looked a little panicked at times but showed some ability to slip out of the pocket and find receivers. I think he put up a good performance though, I'm excited. I would like to see Zorn put him with the 2nd team in some pre-season games, I have a feeling with the proper development he could over-take the #2 spot from Collins, who looked lost.

Defensively, I thought the absence of the starting linebackers on the first team exposed SS Doughty as a little weak in run support. I saw a couple whiffs that should have been stops. He took some bad angles in support. He is a 7th round pick though, and has far exceeded practical expectations.

Fred Smoot looked completely lost.

7
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 10:19am

I still think JDB for the Vikings was the best late round pick at QB and he is probably in the best situation with either a bum starter TJ, or BF to learn from.

8
by db (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 12:12pm

#5 - Brady, Bulger and M. Hasselback were all 6th round picks who the scouts decided weren't cut out for the NFL. Considering that 16% of all starters in the league were undrafted it is safer to assume that most scouts could not find their own ass if allowed to use both hands.

9
by Becephalus (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 12:55pm

db that has got to be one of the dumber things I have ever heard. I think the scouts probably do an excellent job at something which is basically a crapshoot. That is why it looks like a crapshoot (because it is) not because they are idiots.

Hell any of you who have played serious sports know that many coaches aren't even that great at predicting the talent of their own players, much less analyzing hundreds of people they have never met.

You can get some sort of read on the athleticism of a guy, but he maybe nort be disciplined enough to keep it. On top of that even on tape the guy is working with 10 other people on each play, so singling out his contribution is very complicated.

10
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 1:23pm

Re: #5/#8

Not familiar enough to comment on Hass or Bulger, but I think Brady is a great example of Quentin's high-start vs. unknown prospect. Brady had a very low number of starts in college... which is largely what dropped him down to the 6th round. Who is to say that if scouts had more tape of Brady, he wouldn't have shot up the draft boards... (anyone know more about the reasons Hass/Bulger dropped?)

That being said, all three of those guys db mentioned probably are the types of player most often overlooked/underestimated by scouts... good accuracy, decent but not great arm, good-decision making sorts of players.

The big gunned Elways, Marinos, Carson Palmers and Peyton Mannings don't slip by the scouts... but its definitely conceivable that a Colt Brennan or Josh Johnson might...

11
by Nathan (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 1:25pm

Colt's accuracy looked better than a lot of starting QB's I've watched over the years.

That's all I really know. He may not be a starting NFL quarterback, but his throws were closer to the top tier Quarterback's throws than the bottom Tier.

There's a ton of reasons why he could turn out to be a bad quarterback, but I don't see Alex Smith throwing balls with that much precision.

12
by langsty (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 2:03pm

yeah that is unbelivably asinine. i mean, really, 16 percent? that's all it takes to convince you that scouts are useless? do you understand that scouts don't actually do the drafting? and why do you think undrafted players are able to succeed as starters in the nfl? teams look for players that fit their system, which can give guys with very specific, limited skillsets a chance to contribute on certain teams. that is absolutely the foundation of good scouting, for ANY organization - knowing your system and finding guys with the appropriate skill-sets/abilities to play in it.

13
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 2:06pm

He got away with an ill-advised pass over the middle in the game (thankfully the WR made a beautiful catch) but Brennan’s accuracy looked superb.

Are you talking about the one where it just barely sailed over the DBs hands? I was thinking exactly that - "what a stupid throw, damn he got lucky" when I saw that.

But to Brennan's credit, he did put it above where the DB could get it, and the WR did make the catch. But that throw was way, way too dangerous to make unless it's a last ditch hero effort.

The one thing that really surprised me about Colt wasn't just his accuracy - it was his touch, as well. The first deep ball he threw was a great example of that - the ball just fell into the WRs hands, and the WR didn't fall out of stride at all.

It's clear he's got a lot to learn, and I'm sure he'd be the first to admit it, too, but some of those passes were real things of beauty.

14
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 2:09pm

#12 makes a point that a lot of football fans don't realize.

Scouts don't do the drafting.

Along those same lines, just because someone doesn't get drafted doesn't mean they didn't have a draftable grade. A lot of the "success stories" UDFAs in the NFL were guys who had high draft grades, but didn't get picked for some random reason because of the way the draft fell.

15
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 2:15pm

Brady's problem wasn't just the lack of starts, he was a slow, lanky, kid with a unimpressive arm as well.

Let's not get to excited about Colt vs a scrub,vanilla, Indy defense.

16
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 3:32pm

Re: 15 -
I agree... as I said, Brady's skillset doesn't lend itself to scouting... However, another 20 starts would've made his good decision making, pocket presence, etc. stand out a lot more than the limited tape he did have.

And on a completely unrelated comment, I think the Denver Broncos have some competition for RaiderJoe on the DenverPost Blogs... check out this post from "Horvil Tiki" on lynch leaving town...

Lynch bail cause guy don't think Bronco have shot at dynatsy soup bowL? I don't think so guy.

I like the lynch, I like his biggest hits for to make devastat on eenemy player. I like guy determinate. I like guy heart and honor.

Guy want play, guy would play if can was starter. Shanhan not stupid idot. Best 11 makey the team guy. Past dont mater. Guy saw not starter, reduce play time. Guy say no way, I not start, I not even play nikkel then I is gone. I want for to make starter some other teem. Bronco release to for to make other team maybe.

Kisla make crazy typed, say Lynch surpass the Shanhan. Kissla like old crazy man in deserts. Eyes twistd from payotee, mouth is dry cant see anything guy with crazy words.

SHANHAN SAY GAURANTEE PLAYOFF GUY!!! SHANHAN LITLE GENERAL LEAD BRONCO TO DYNATSY VICTORYOUS SOUP BOWL PROPELLER ARM CUTLER PROTEGEE QUART BACK PICK 11 STEAL OF DRAFT. IF DONT LIKE SHANHAN LEARN TO LOVE HIM GUY LEARN TO LOVE HIM. ALL DAY ALL DAY.

LMFAO....

17
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 4:07pm

" I like the Lynch"

Tom Brady had a limited number of starts and physically isn't very impressive.

Jemarcus Russell had a limited number of starts but is physically impressive.

John David Booty is in a Tom Brady-like situation. Drew Henson and Leinart were two big time college players. Not getting the ideal number of starts doesn't mean they stink, it just gives scouts a smaller sample size to work with. Flynn is in a similar situation too but I like Booty's quicker release better.

18
by LooseOnTheLead (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 4:33pm

To me, the thing to keep in mind here is that Brennan's performance last night did not offer meaningfully new information to anyone who'd watched him play at Hawaii. I mean, this is how he racked up those gaudy statistics there. He's already shown via a large sample that he can shine against good college-level competition, assuming he has reasonable protection. And that's pretty much what we saw last night: Brennan looked good against a college-level defense. (The talent may have been better than at most universities, but with less cohesiveness, so maybe it evens out.) The scouts and analysts who didn't think much of him as a pro prospect had already seen this kind of showing in the film room. Nothing has changed. There's no new information.

The claim is that Brennan will not be able to adjust to a real starting NFL defense, especially one that has schemed specifically for him...and nothing that happened last night made me feel any better about him in that regard. (I'm a Skins fan.)

19
by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 4:38pm

18. Even the backup Colts defense is much better than any defense Brennan would have seen in college.

20
by mattfwood (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 5:16pm

1 -- They were talking about Bullet Bill Dudley, who most certainly played both ways and also punted and kicked. He was a halfback but at a time when HBs passed a lot; a defensive back who finished one season with 10 interceptions; and he ran back kicks too.

I can think of more than nine ways to score (depending on how you count) -- and even without going to the dropkick -- and Madden confirmed that one of the methods was a safety.

1. Run for TD
2. Catch a TD
3. Pass for a TD

4. INT for TD
5. Fumble Recovery for TD
6. Safety

7. Extra Point
8. Field Goal

9. Kick return for TD
10. Punt return for TD

21
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 6:00pm

I can't imagine that Dudley (or anyone else) scored 9 different ways in a single game, as post 1 suggests. It must have been in a season, or in a career.

To score 9 different ways in a single game, and three of them were FG, XP, and safety, the player would still be scoring six touchdowns, ALL IN DIFFERENT WAYS, in a single game. That's a bare minimum of 42 points coming from that player in one game.

22
by Oldcat (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 6:04pm

#18

Well Pass for TD isn't "scoring" in and of itself so take that one down.

Possibly Block Kick and Block Punt for TD could be added.

23
by Alex51 (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 6:13pm

#5 - Brady, Bulger and M. Hasselback were all 6th round picks who the scouts decided weren’t cut out for the NFL.

And none of them were four year starters, like Brennan, so scouts didn't have a lot of game film of them. Of course scouts are going to miss good QBs who don't have many starts, they don't have enough information to properly evaluate them. Scouts are good at their jobs, they aren't psychic. But scouts almost never miss on guys that have 40+ starts, like Brennan does.

So unless you can find a quality starter that had 40+ college starts, and wasn't drafted in the first two rounds, Quentin's point still stands. A high number of starts is not a good sign for a late round QB. Maybe he'll be good anyway, but he'd be a huge exception to the rule.

24
by BucKai (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 6:22pm

19: Go back and read my post. I wasn't saying it happened. I said that Madden did. The sheer numbers involved are the reason I was seeking more info.

20: I'm sure you're correct. I doubt the HoF was using fantasy football scoring rules.

Another method I thought of would be running back a short field goal attempt.

25
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 8:21pm

Yea, obviously I meant "as post 1 says Madden said." I didn't hear the comment live, so I don't know whether that's what he said. But if he did say the player did it all in one game, that's pretty clearly erroneous. The game would have to be one of the biggest blowouts ever just to accommodate all that scoring.

26
by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 8:32pm

#21: If Brennan does succeed, the reason he'd be an exception is easy: because he quite possibly had one of the worst appearing January-to-April predraft periods of any quarterback while not actually being bad.

The Sugar Bowl, plus weight loss and illness plus hip surgery - yeah, that adds up to a whole lot of teams saying "no thanks, pass."

But none of those things were actually that bad. The Sugar Bowl was primarily his offensive line, the illness was, well, an illness, and the hip surgery was relatively minor.

27
by Raiderjoe (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 9:21pm

Colt brnennan could be good , but betting money on it would not be smayt.

Drinking Sierra Nevada Stout otnight. Not as good as Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. Definitely not drinking the Stout on Superbowl Sunday when Raiders play Redskins or Eagles or Vikings.

28
by Walt E (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 10:03pm

The NFL record for most points by an individual in a single game is 40. Ernie Nevers did it it for the Cardinals in 1929 by rushing for 6 TDs and kicking 4 PATs. So there's no way it could be 9 different ways in one game because as Yaguar said, to do that requires a minimum of 42 points.

29
by DoubleB (not verified) :: Mon, 08/04/2008 - 10:10pm

21:

I believe David Garrard started 40+ games for East Carolina and he wasn't a 1st or 2nd round pick.

30
by Alex51 (not verified) :: Tue, 08/05/2008 - 12:35am

If Brennan does succeed, the reason he’d be an exception is easy: because he quite possibly had one of the worst appearing January-to-April predraft periods of any quarterback while not actually being bad.

I don't disagree, there are some mitigating circumstances that could explain why he might be unfairly downgraded. I mean, you could say that about most QBs (Peyton Manning's college career didn't exactly end on a high note, and he still went 1st overall), but I could believe that his situation was just a perfect storm of bad luck.

It's not his fault that the Sugar Bowl went badly, nobody could've succeeded there. And the weight issue probably isn't significant. The hip surgery is a concern, but maybe it really was minor. I really would like to see Brennan succeed, so it'd be nice to find out that he really was great all along.

But then you're not arguing that his high number of starts is a good sign, or even that it isn't a bad sign. You're arguing that, while it might be a bad sign, we should ignore it or discount it because there are plenty of reasons to believe that it doesn't accurately reflect his true ability. And that doesn't contradict the argument Quentin and I have made at all.

(anyone know more about the reasons Hass/Bulger dropped?)

Honestly, I don't think they dropped at all, and neither did Brady. I don't think scouts ever had them graded very highly before the draft. Brady started 25 games in college, Hasselbeck 21, and Bulger 30. They didn't get drafted highly for a number of reasons, but probably the most significant is that scouts just didn't know enough about them to tell that they were going to be great.

In contrast, look at other fairly similar QBs who did have a high number of starts: Chad Pennington, who started 51 games, and Drew Brees, 37 games. Neither had a particularly strong arm, and they weren't terribly mobile, either, yet they were both taken in the first two rounds. When scouts have enough game film to analyze, they can give you very good predictions, even when a QB's physical talent doesn't stand out.

That's why Brennan not being drafted in the first two rounds is a bad sign. It's no guarantee that he won't succeed, but it's a negative indicator. After all, if he were really that great, a lack of eye-popping talent or a few bad games/minor injuries are unlikely to make scouts change their minds if they have a ton of game film to base their decision on. Now, he might end up being good anyway, and it wouldn't be entirely unprecedented. Jake Delhomme started 40+ games in college and went undrafted, and he's pretty good. But it's not the most likely thing to happen. As Raiderjoe aptly put it, "Colt brnennan could be good , but betting money on it would not be smayt."

In any case, he was drafted in the 6th round, so if he's even a good backup QB, he'll outperform his draft status. And since he's still on an NFL roster right now, I'd say he's well on his way to doing that.

31
by Alex51 (not verified) :: Tue, 08/05/2008 - 12:55am

I believe David Garrard started 40+ games for East Carolina and he wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick.

True. Still, he's only had one really good year in the NFL, so I'm not entirely sure whether he's that good. But yeah, you can add him to the list with Delhomme. It'll still be a very short list.

32
by The Ninjalectual (not verified) :: Tue, 08/05/2008 - 12:58am

RaiderJoe:

The fact that you pick the Redskins for the superbowl somehow makes me happy.

33
by Chris (not verified) :: Tue, 08/05/2008 - 9:25am

A) The good physical, low starts = a guy with high upside potential.

B) The weak/avg. physical, high starts mean scouts see a lot of holes in his game.

B isn't a bust because people aren't that high on him in the first place, where as group A could be a tremendous Bust.

Jemarcus Russell is the exact opposite of Colt Brennan. He didn't start a lot of games, he has outstanding phsyical attributes, and he piled on a very weak Notre Dame defense in the Sugar Bowl.

John David Booty could be like Tom Brady, playing behind solid college QB's, not a lot of starts, big time program, and a little unknown.

34
by parker (not verified) :: Tue, 08/05/2008 - 10:28am

After watching Wuerfel and Matthews tear it up in the preaseason circa 2002 I'm not going to get excited about a great system college qb tearing up a 2nd/3rd string preseason NFL defense.

35
by masocc (not verified) :: Wed, 08/06/2008 - 1:00am

Actually, the bare minimum points to score 9 differents ways would be 33 points:

XP + 2PTConv + XPSafety + Safety + FG + TD(x4) =

33 points.

If you don't want to count the almost never seen XPSafety, then you could still get 38 by substituting the XPSafety with another form of TD.

Granted, none of these are likely scenarios, and IF it had happened, the man in question would be a Trivia Legend that we'd all know by name.

I *suppose* it's possible that somebody's done this in HS or College?

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