by Brian Fremeau and Robert Weintraub

Maybe it's a bit harsh, but there's a lot of concern about the meaninglessness of this week's games. Alabama is sitting at home potentially already having wrapped up a BCS title game ticket, and LSU may join them win or lose. UCLA is representing the Pac-12 South with a fired coach at the helm and a waiver in their pocket to get to a bowl game at 6-7 after Oregon cleans their clocks.

There is plenty to play for, of course, and there will probably be some great games. The Big East BCS bid is still up for grabs with West Virginia and Cincinnati trying to take the bid away from clubhouse leader Louisville. Wisconsin gets a rematch with Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten title game, and Clemson has a chance to win the ACC with a win over Virginia Tech. The Big 12 finale couldn't have been scripted any better with Oklahoma heading to Oklahoma State. Ohio and Northern Illinois #MACtion should be exciting, and Houston attempts to cap its perfect regular season with a Conference USA championship against Southern Miss.

Forty-five different programs have played in a BCS bowl game, and four more teams may join that list after this weekend: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Michigan State and Houston are all in position to grab their first-ever bids. There's something to play for, with or without BCS championship drama.

Previews

No. 22 West Virginia (-1.5) at South Florida (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

This must-win for the Mountaineers is on Thursday night, thus Cincinnati will know what it has to play for by Saturday. Ironically, the 'Neers need Cincy to suck up their pride and beat Connecticut even though a WVU win eliminates them, as West Virginia needs a three-way tie to get their hands on the BCS bid. First they'll have a little business to attend to in Florida. The trip isn't nearly as scary as it might have been in September, when the Bulls were 4-0 and fresh off an upset win at Notre Dame. Now quarterback B.J. Daniels is injured, the run defense is a sieve (one that allows 183 yards per game), and Skip Holtz is on the verge of missing a bowl berth and perhaps Skipping town to North Carolina or elsewhere, according to the rumor mill. The 'Neers aren't good enough to overlook anyone, despite the presence of the conference's best offensive player, Geno Smith, at the controls. They discovered that a week ago, when WVU fell behind Pittsburgh 20-7 in the Backyard Brawl, only to rally after wholesale substitutions on the offensive line. The defense rose up to the challenge with ten sacks, six after halftime. If West Virginia brings the intensity it had in the final thirty minutes to Tampa, it should be able to don red and black and root on Cincinnati 48 hours later.

MAC Championship: Ohio (+3.5) vs. Northern Illinois (Friday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

The Bobcats started out 1-2 in conference play and the Huskies lost their MAC opener against eventual three-win Central Michigan, but that’s part of what makes the MAC so darn exciting! The other part? The crazy offensive outbursts that have peppered weekday nights this fall, including Northern Illinois’ 63-60 win over Toledo back on November 1. Senior quarterback Chandler Harnish threw for 265 yards that night and added 133 on the ground, the first of four consecutive 100-yard rushing games to close out the year. Ohio hasn’t been particularly special at any phase of the game, though they do have a knack for getting involved in close games -– six of their league games were decided by a single score and the Bobcats won four of them. Ohio senior wide receiver Lavon Brazill has been a playmaker with 10 receiving touchdowns on only 56 total receptions and five 100-yard receiving games in conference play.

Pac-12 Championship: UCLA (+31.5) at No. 8 Oregon (Friday, 8:00 PM ET, Fox)

Hoo boy. UCLA found out 24 hours before their game against USC last week that they didn’t need a win to secure a trip to Autzen for the Pac-12 championship. The 50-point blowout had little to do with resting starters or anything of the sort, but one has to wonder if they can summon a bit more motivation against Oregon on the road a few days after finding out they don’t need a win to be bowl eligible. Rick Neuheisel was fired after the blowout loss to the Trojans, but gets one more game at the helm. Oregon has a Rose Bowl berth awaiting it after they take care of business against the Bruins, which won’t be a problem. UCLA boasts the worst defense the Ducks will have played all year according to FEI, and they’ve rolled against every weak defense they’ve faced to date.

Conference USA Championship: No. 24 Southern Miss (+13) vs. No. 7 Houston (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC)

The C-USA title is on the line, but for the Cougars, the stakes are far higher -- an undefeated season and the huge BCS payout that comes with it are theirs if they can best Southern Mississippi. Houston's most impressive outing of the season came last weekend against a tough Tulsa team. Case Keenum strafed them for 457 yards and five touchdowns, so the Golden Eagles defense, which is much better against the run (20th in the nation, compared to 55th against the pass) won't scare Keenum much. Even by system-based, stats compiling standards, Keenum has had a virtuoso campaign, with 43 touchdown passes against only three picks. He has become the NCAA all-time leader in yards and touchdown passes, and, unlike last season, has been injury-free. But the Cougs are in the BCS discussion because of a vastly improved defense. They've lopped 11 points per game off their average from 2010, and have held their last four opponents under 20 points. For Southern Miss to pull the road upset, quarterback Austin Davis has to play at the limit of his talents. Certainly, he'll have to play better than Tulsa's G.J. Kinne, who Davis closely resembles statistically, did a week ago.

Connecticut (+9) at Cincinnati (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Cincy held the reins of the conference in a tight grip until quarterback Zach Collaros broke his ankle against West Virginia. The Bearcats lost that game, and lost the next as well before beating Syracuse to give themselves a shot at the BCS with a win and a West Virginia loss. Winning with backup QB Munchie Legaux won't be easy against Connecticut's big play defense, led by FBS sack leader Travardo Williams. The Huskies have 33 team sacks and 28 takeaways, so Munchie will have to hang on to the ball as well as he did against the Orange. The reverse is plenty true as well -- Cincy has 38 sacks and 27 takeaways themselves, and the defense should tee off on a Huskies line that has allowed 35 sacks. Only seven teams have given up more. The Huskies had by far their best offensive game of the season last Saturday against Rutgers, scoring 40 points behind workhorse back Lyle McCombs and six forced turnovers. They will have to repeat the strong ground performance against the stingy Bearcats to become bowl-eligible and end Cincy's longshot hopes of another BCS bid.

Texas (+2.5) at No. 19 Baylor (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)

Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III gets one more shot to make a Heisman statement this weekend against Texas, though it will come against the best defense he has faced all year according to F/+. He had little trouble moving the ball against everyone else this year, but Oklahoma State intercepted him twice and kept Baylor out of the end zone until garbage time back on October 29. Since then, he’s thrown for more than 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns on 115 attempts (11.3 yards per attempt, better than his national-best 10.6 yards per attempt season average). Texas will make him work, as they rank fourth nationally in limiting opponent explosive drives and have only given up 29 plays all year of 20 or more yards (third-fewest in the nation behind LSU and Alabama). Griffin led Baylor to its first-ever win against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, and got the Bears their first win against Texas in more than a decade last season. Here’s hoping he is 100-percent recovered from his concussion that sidelined him during last week’s game against Texas Tech, so Texas will get the Bears’ best shot.

No. 12 Georgia (+13.5) at No. 1 LSU (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, CBS)

Georgia's ten-game winning streak doesn't possess many impressive pelts, but the Dawgs have a puncher's chance at a surprise BCS bid thanks to quarterback Aaron Murray and a snarling defense that conjures memories of Days of Pollack, Thurman and Blue in Athens. Shutting down LSU's metronomic ground attack will be crucial, and with Johnathan Jenkins and Kwame Geathers stuffing things inside, and Jarvis Jones cleaning things up behind them, UGA has the best shot at doing so of anyone LSU has played outside of Alabama. Meanwhile, brittle frosh running back Isaiah Crowell needs to flash some of the five-star hype that accompanied him to Athens and not be on the sideline surrounded by trainers. Of course, even Georgia's best shot may not be good enough to slow the Tigers, whose weekly exploits have been well-documented in this corner of the internets. Perhaps the Dawgs' best ally may be the fact that LSU almost certainly will play in the BCS title game regardless of the outcome in the Georgia Dome. Les Miles may decide that going all-out to win the conference title isn't the best use of resources with bigger game on the horizon. But that's likely grasping at straws with a capital 'G' -- that stands for Georgia.

No. 13 Oklahoma (+3.5) at No. 3 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

We’ve spent a lot of time talking lately about how underrated that Oklahoma State defense is, so we’ll be watching this one for the data as much as for the drama. The drama is particularly interesting since so much may or may not be on the line. Two weeks after stumbling in overtime in an emotionally tough situation on the road, where are the Cowboys’ heads at? Will they feel the pressure of a chance for a Bedlam victory to vault them into the BCS? Have they been distracted by the talk of an LSU-Alabama title game that might leave them on the outside looking in? Oklahoma has flopped in big games too, but they’ve owned the series against Oklahoma State -– eight straight victories, only three of which were decided by less than three scores. This is as good a Cowboys team as there has been, and Oklahoma State has been special on both sides of the ball in its best games this year. Last year's game gave us a 47-41 shootout with a wild fourth quarter. With two top-15 F/+ defenses, we won’t be surprised with a more modest final score this time around.

No. 5 Virginia Tech (-7) at No. 21 Clemson (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

It's payback time in Charlotte, where Virginia Tech looks to avenge the sole loss of its season against stumbling Clemson. Back in early October, the Tigers propelled their run to the Atlantic Division title by squashing the Hokies 23-3 in Blacksburg -- but these are different teams now. VaTech has straightened itself out behind the improved play of quarterback Logan Thomas and ACC Offensive Player of the Year David Wilson. Thomas was held to 125 passing yards in the first encounter, but has become a dual-threat dynamo since. Clemson's spread attack has sputtered in the last month, as Tahj Boyd has gone from a Heisman candidate to a passer completing just 59 percent of his throws. Boyd threw five picks in November, doubling his total from the prior two months, and the offense that sped past all comers in the warm weather was throttled by South Carolina a week ago. Still, with Sammy Watkins back at full health and grasping his award for best freshman in the ACC in his mitts, the big-play potential is there. Andre Branch demolished VT's line in October, and a repeat performance would go a long way toward getting the Tigers to the Orange Bowl.

No. 15 Wisconsin (-9) at No. 11 Michigan State (Saturday, 8:17 PM ET, Fox)

All Montee Ball does is score touchdowns. If he hasn’t earned his ticket to the Heisman ceremony with his 34 touchdown (29 rushing, 5 receiving), 1622 rushing yard campaign so far, he’ll have one more shot to punch that ticket against the Spartans. A solid day would be impressive against Michigan State’s rush defense (100 yards per game, eighth in S&P+) and Ball was effective in the first game (115 yards on the ground, one rushing touchdown, one receiving touchdown). Quarterback Russell Wilson threw two of his three interceptions on the season against the Spartans, though neither ensuing Michigan State drive resulted in points. The Spartans did have a punt return touchdown and the dramatic final Hail Mary pass to win. If Wisconsin is able to limit those kinds of all-or-nothing plays, the Badgers have the offensive and defensive profile to win on a drive-by-drive basis. Michigan State had the special teams and field position edge in the first game, and were better over the course of the season in those categories, too.

Storylines of the Week

Robert Weintraub: So here we are -- a season's worth of "Every Game Matters" propaganda later, we've arrived at the final weekend of the season with a slate of games that mean exceptionally little. LSU and Alabama, rightly or wrongly, are almost certainly gonna defy Apollo Creed (Rocky version) and stage a rematch at the Superdome for all the Tostitos. In other words, Alabama's missed kicks, plural, are less damaging than Boise State's, Oklahoma's, or Oklahoma State's. So be it. But imagine if this weekend's hostilities were not only for conference championships, but a berth in a postseason playoff, or the chance to host a playoff game or two. Suddenly, VaTech-Clemson, Michigan State-Wisconsin, and even the Big East games become Must See TV. Alas. As this is a numbers-based site, here are a few digits for you:

Big Ten Championship Game -- $10
Pac-12 Championship Game -- $22
UConn @ Cincinnati -- $23
C-USA Championship Game -- $35

These are the prices of tickets on Stubhub. I'm sure you can find cheaper ones if you try. Something tells me that if a lone berth in a college football playoff was on the line, the prices for the (inaugural, by the way) Big Ten Championship game would be higher than a tenner.

Brian Fremeau: The best conference championship game is the one that isn't an official conference championship game. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State each played everyone else in the conference before this weekend, posted the best records, and will meet for the title. It's the way these things hopefully work out, and it's too bad that it doesn't, especially in conferences that have a divisional structure. I talked about my problems with the conference championship structure in the FEI column this week, so I won't rehash all the arguments again here. But in the emerging age of superconferences, let's celebrate Bedlam and the significance of every game leading up to the title (conference or otherwise) meaning something.

Picks

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 01 Dec 2011

8 comments, Last at 04 Dec 2011, 12:33am by Tom Gower