by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and Robert Weintraub

Never has a sport's fanbase more looked forward to watching a good team (probably) obliterate a bad one as college football fans are regarding tonight's UNLV-Wisconsin game on ESPN. The game itself probably won't be interesting, but nobody will mind because there will simply football to watch instead of scandals to discuss.

It has been a long, arduous, frustrating offseason full of arrests, eligibility issues, more arrests, and Nevin Shapiro. Teams are still in flux due to suspensions and eligibility issues, but the season kicks off tonight regardless.

Up until Saturday night, the first week of games is far from memorable. But if you're looking for a marquee game to officially get you into the football groove, then you've got options come evening time. LSU battles Oregon in Jerry World, while Boise State heads to Atlanta to take on Georgia. These two games will help to set the narrative for the early portion of the season. It will be fantastic.

Previews

UNLV (+35) at No. 11 Wisconsin (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Fifteen games on Thursday night and the main event features a 35-point home favorite? Who cares?! College football is here! Crank the House of Pain at Camp Randall Stadium and let's Jump Around. Wisconsin isn't the glossiest headliner of the weekend, but this game has the potential to be fun anyway. The Badgers scored 70-plus points three times last season and are perfectly content rolling for all 60 minutes, especially since they'll be breaking in "free-agent" quarterback Russell Wilson (formerly of NC State) and may want to keep him in rhythm all night. Wisconsin probably isn't a national championship threat this year, but the Big Ten race is wide open and a trip back to the Rose Bowl could be within reach. The backfield is still loaded with Montee Ball (996 yards, plus-13.4 Adj. POE, 18 TDs) and James White (1012 yards, plus-16.1 Adj. POE, 14 TDs) so Wilson won't be under pressure to carry the offense. And against a UNLV defense that ranked in the bottom 10 percent in most of our adjusted metrics last season and is breaking in new bodies in 2011, a bludgeoning is likely.

No. 14 TCU (-5.5) at Baylor (Friday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Overshadowed by the frenzy over the LSU-Oregon game up the road in Dallas, this Fort Worth vs. Waco battle should get hearts pumping in Texas. TCU has been a machine the last few seasons, reloading its powerful defense several times while winning and winning under quarterback Andy Dalton. He's a Bengal now, however, so Casey Pachall will be relied on to keep the Frogs from becoming toads. Star defenders Tank Carder and Tanner Brock are back, as is running back Ed Wesley, so Pachall will be doing much what Dalton will in the pros -- leaning on his defense and running game while he develops. Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III will pose a severe problem for the Frogs defense with his mobility and strong, accurate arm. Baylor returns a full complement of receivers as well. Defensively, however, the Bears collapsed down the stretch last season, and the addition of Pitt defensive coordinator Phil Bennett isn't likely to impact the unit right away.

Minnesota (+20.5) at No. 25 USC (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Year two of the Lane Kiffin era in Southern California will be an interesting one. The Trojans certainly took a step back last year, but our numbers indicate they were a bit better than their record. USC's problem last year was closing out games, as they fell to late game heroics in home losses against Stanford and Notre Dame. After being manhandled on defense on several occasions, the physicality will be one element to watch for this year, as will the development of quarterback Matt Barkley. He dazzled as a freshman and suffered through injuries in 2010, but has the talent and potential to be one of the strongest passers in the country. Minnesota introduces new coach Jerry Kill in the hopes that it can get a little bit of modest success and momentum started. The Gophers' defense was lousy last year, but lots of experience is back to anchor an otherwise young team. On offense, dual threat quarterback (and former receiver) Marqueis Gray will cause a few fits for the USC defense, but the Trojans ought to be able to control the game throughout.

South Florida (+10) at Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, NBC)

Head coach Brian Kelly delayed the announcement of this year's starting quarterback until last week, and Dayne Crist ultimately got the nod, reclaiming his role after an ACL tear sidelined him in 2010. Backup quarterback Tommy Rees (4-0 as a starter in Crist's absence) will be especially popular if Crist doesn't immediately seize the role and perform with confidence and accuracy. Even more attention is being paid to the Irish defense, and deservedly so. A very experienced unit that loaded up on front seven size and talent in the latest recruiting cycle was the anchor of the late-season run and the main reason why the Irish may be a threat to contend for a BCS bowl this year. South Florida is an intriguing upset candidate, mostly due to head coach Skip Holtz's relationship with Notre Dame rather than their capacity to be a major player this year. Their defense will make things uneasy for the Irish offense, and B.J. Daniels can make plays for the Bulls' offense. Don't expect Notre Dame to lose, but don't expect the game to be decided until the fourth quarter either.

UCLA (+3) at Houston (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, FSN)

Rick Neuheisel's last trip to the state of Texas was a smashing success, a shellacking of the Longhorns in Austin that sent Texas on a tailspin. Unfortunately, it didn't exactly set UCLA in a positive direction either. The Bruins lost six of their last seven games, making for an uncomfortable off-season and pressure to perform in 2011. Quarterback has been a question mark throughout Neuheisel's tenure, and the offensive line replaces four starters. On top of that, Houston is a dicey first week opponent. Sixth-year quarterback Case Keenum has a resume spilling over with gaudy passing numbers and returns for a final hurrah after suffering a season-ending knee injury (against these same Bruins) early last year. Houston ranks as one of several Conference USA contenders according to the F/+ ratings, and a win over UCLA won't impress computers, but will bring a bit more attention to a conference seeking a run at crashing the BCS party.

BYU (-3) at Ole Miss (Saturday, 4:45 PM ET, ESPN)

Just how much will BYU's mormon fan base appreciate the epic views on display in The Grove before the game? That's one of the many pressing questions surrounding the newly independent Cougars as they embark on their initial season away from the major labels. Another is whether or not quarterback Jake Heaps, who started ten games as a prized freshman a year ago, can take his game to the next level and keep the program's tradition at the position going nicely. BYU hung 52 on UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl to finish 2010, and the defense jelled after head coach Bronco Mendenhall took over the coordinating duties mid-season. Nose tackle Romney Fuga makes the Cougars 3-4 scheme work. Ole Miss is extremely young, even at mascot, where Colonel Reb has taken his musket and gone a-raidin' with Jeb Stuart, to be replaced by Rebel the Bear. Running back Brandon Bolden will try to outrun the BYU defense on the flanks, while sixth-year (medical waiver) defensive end Kentrell Lockett is the heart of the Mississippi defense, provided he can make it through the game unscathed.

No. 3 Oregon (-2) vs No. 4 LSU (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

It will be a bowl game atmosphere when a team from Oregon and a team from Louisiana face off in Texas Saturday night. There will be athletes aplenty on the field. However, the star potential of the game was zapped by suspensions. Oregon cornerback Cliff Harris' need for speed (and for speeding with a suspended license) got him placed on the sideline, LSU receiver Russell Shepard will sit because of an NCAA inquiry, and LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson is out because he got into a bar fight. Still, the battle should be a fun one. Oregon's offense moves faster than Cliff Harris' car, and unfortunately for LSU, the Ducks' backfield of quarterback Darron Thomas and running back LaMichael James returns intact. They will try to do damage against one of the best front sevens they will face this year; that matters, because the Oregon offensive line did not acquit itself beautifully against Auburn in last year's BCS Championship. Meanwhile, senior Jarrett Lee assumes Jefferson's spot behind center for the Bayou Bengals. His mistake-prone past might bleed into the present if Oregon is as good at taking advantage of third-and-longs as they were last year.

No. 5 Boise State (-3.5) vs No. 19 Georgia (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

For the first time, the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Classic is venturing outside an SEC-ACC matchup, and what a team to do it with -- Boise State, the most polarizing program in college football. Especially in the south, where everyone with an opinion scoffs at what the Broncos would do if they had to play an SEC schedule. Here's a small chance for Boise to shut those fans up. Heisman candidate Kellen Moore loses his starting wideouts, but everyone else is back on what should be an explosive offense, and the defense is senior-laden and speedy. The Georgia Dome will be an even more severe road game than was last season's supposed neutral field opener (against VaTech at FedEx Field). The loud support for UGA is a given -- what the team will bring to the game is almost completely unknown, save quarterback Aaron Murray. The running game is depleted due to injury and bad behavior, star wideout A.J. Green has graduated, and the defense was the main culprit in last season's 7-6 debacle. Head coach Mark Richt, job squarely on the line, looked to remedy that by bringing in an outstanding crop of freshmen this offseason. While they get ready, the Bulldog defense will get a boost from JUCO transfer "Big" John Jenkins, who is expected to clog the middle as a run-stuffing nose guard. At 6'4", 340, he could have the impact that another JUCO transfer, Nick Fairley, had at Auburn a year ago. With schedules that lighten up considerably after this one (amazingly in Georgia's case -- it's as soft as an SEC schedule you'll ever see), a win for either school sets them up nicely for the weeks ahead.

SMU (+16) at No. 8 Texas A&M (Sunday, 7:30 PM ET, FSN)

What is evidently Texas A&M's final Big 12 campaign will begin with a team that has publicly and blatantly attempted to position itself to replace the Aggies. SMU visits Kyle Field on Sunday, hoping to take advantage of an A&M team that is getting a lot of credit (too much, perhaps) for a late winning streak in 2010. Both teams possess interesting 3-4 defenses that take advantage when they have leveraged you into passing downs, but one has to figure that the A&M running game, featuring both Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, is more well-positioned to avoid second- and third-and-long situations. SMU's passing attack is efficient when quarterback Kyle Padron is avoiding sacks, but, well, he doesn't avoid sacks very well. SMU's run-and-shoot could keep things interesting for a while, but A&M simply has more play-makers.

Miami (+4) at Maryland (Monday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

This Labor Day, commemorate the hard work of Ponzi schemers, prostitutes, and embattled compliance directors by taking in this game that features the depleted, slouching-toward-probation Hurricanes of Miami. Eight Canes are suspended for this one, including defensive studs Ray-Ray Armstrong and Sean Spence. The line has moved nine points on the Nevin News, from Miami -5 to Maryland -4. Mostly, it seems, that's a reaction to another Cane that won't be playing, quarterback Jacory Harris. Many Miami fans would call that a severe overreaction, given Jacory's uneven play over his Miami career. Stephen Morris, the backup, is battle-tested, though not particularly better than Harris. It makes for a challenging debut for new 'U' coach Al Golden. Meanwhile, to far less fanfare (to which he gives much thanks), new Maryland coach Randy Edsall makes his initial bow on stage as well. He will have a full complement of players at his disposal, including quarterback Danny O'Brien, who broke out as a freshman last season. Miami, even with the missing players, might still be more talented than the Terps, but have come up small with the bright lights on them in the last few seasons. Now, everyone will be watching. It's a chance to make a major statement, one way or the other.

Storylines of the Week

Robert Weintraub: Can we just play ball, at long last? Forget the widespread problems the sport has faced this offseason. We've had 86 days of 90 degree or higher temperatures here in Atlanta so far this calendar year, with no relief in sight. I need the cooling breeze of a new college football season desperately, with dreams of slate-gray skies over Notre Dame Stadium, howling winds across Norman, and flurries at State College, PA. Heck, I'll settle for 75 and zero humidity at the LA Coliseum. It's football time again, and for me at least, that means relief in more ways than one.

Brian Fremeau: We have a new celebration penalty in college football and everyone's anxious for it to rear its ugly head. Premature gestures and celebratory actions before the ball crosses the plane (including actions taken by players far away from the ball) can result in the touchdown coming off the scoreboard. I'm not really into the idea of this thing marring the national championship race in any way, so I'm hopeful that we'll get some understanding how this will work in the early weeks when the stakes are pretty low. If Wisconsin wants to test the referees while running in its ninth or tenth touchdown against UNLV, good. I don't approve of excessive showboating, but I'd like to see this penalty in action before things get really serious.

Bill Connelly: Football Outsiders' numbers have loved TCU and Boise State in recent years, and both face interesting tests of their reputation. Since Boise State never actually gets to play a BCS conference team in a bowl game (they seemingly always end up facing another good mid-major like TCU or Utah), their battle with Georgia will almost completely define how people perceive them the rest of the season. Meanwhile, TCU must smoothly replace quite a few key players, especially on offense, and have to travel to Waco to face one of the most efficient, fun offenses in the country. TCU is much more likely to pass their test than Boise State, but both have a lot on the line in their first 60 minutes of 2011 play.

Picks

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 01 Sep 2011

11 comments, Last at 05 Sep 2011, 5:56pm by Sid