Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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» OFI: SEC Surprises

In an opening week where even the elite teams in college football looked mortal, the SEC had two big surprises in Texas A&M and Georgia defeating their South Carolinian opponents by big scores.

10 Nov 2011

SDA: There Will Be Football

by Brian Fremeau and Robert Weintraub

For college football fans across the country, this has been about as disturbing a week as can possibly be imagined. The scandal and fallout at Penn State has been a daily saga of wrenching emotions that make it very, very difficult to discuss trivialities like the games themselves. But there are many games to be played this weekend, and as Paul Myerberg of the outstanding Pre-Snap Read blog reminds us, there are many great things in the college football world worth celebrating, and it's still OK to cheer.

So we'll tune in this weekend to this week's best, including a top-10 clash in Palo Alto between Stanford and Oregon with the Pac-12 North crown on the line. TCU and Boise State have a Mountain West score to settle on the blue turf in Idaho. Conference battles in the SEC, Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, and Big East will be integral to division races as teams jockey down the stretch. It's okay to cheer.

Previews

No. 10 Virginia Tech (-1) at No. 21 Georgia Tech (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

OVERALL When Virginia Tech
Has the Ball ...
When Georgia Tech
Has the Ball ...
Category Va. Tech
(8-1)
Ga. Tech
(7-2)
Va. Tech
Off
Ga. Tech
Def
Va. Tech
Def
Ga. Tech
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 13 15
2011 FEI Rk 28 12 52 20 16 22
2011 S&P+ Rk 11 19 45 38 7 15
2011 FPA Rk 41 56
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 60 93 37 19
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 45 13 6 24
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 47 77 26 32
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
63.7% Run
(33rd)
87.4% Run
(third)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 93 42 4 25
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
40% Run
(20th)
63.1% Run
(second)

The Institute's huge win over Clemson gives this Thursday night clash on the Flats enormous implications for the Coastal Division, which is as it should be. Since 2005, the winner of this game has always gone on to the ACC title game. Paul Johnson's squad has been a different team at home this season, winning all six matches and averaging 41 points per game in the process. The key, as usual for Tech, will be the play of quarterback Tevin Washington, who bounced back from poor performances at Virginia and Miami with a monster ground game against Clemson (176 yards). However, the Tigers aren't in Virginia Tech's class in terms of run defense -- the Hokies are sixth in the nation in yards allowed on the ground, at 86 yards per game. They will try and follow the model that Miami, in particular, used to stuff the triple option: throttling the middle and outrunning the Jackets on the flanks. The loss of Bruce Taylor, perhaps their best defender, to a foot injury won't help that cause. The lads from Blacksburg have issues on offense, as proven by the 14-10 quagmire against Duke two weeks back. David Wilson is pretty much the entire VaTech attack of late: Wilson is the nation's third-leading rusher in yards per game (132), and it was his kickoff return touchdown that was the difference in last year's game against the Bees. If G-Tech can stop him, it will go a long way towards a trip to Charlotte in early December.

No. 19 Nebraska (-3) at No. 12 Penn State (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)

OVERALL When Nebraska
Has the Ball ...
When Penn State
Has the Ball ...
Category Nebraska
(7-2)
Penn St.
(8-1)
Nebraska
Off
Penn St.
Def
Nebraska
Def
Penn St.
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 21 12
2011 FEI Rk 16 25 30 3 49 81
2011 S&P+ Rk 27 12 48 4 18 80
2011 FPA Rk 13 21
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 45 5 32 50
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 60 3 11 88
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 57 3 37 89
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
74.6% Run
(10th)
62.6% Run
(42nd)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 53 7 16 31
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
44.6% Run
(13rd)
40.8% Run
(18th)

Somehow, a football game will be played in Happy Valley on Saturday. The following is what might happen if the two teams on the field play as their performances to date suggest they might. Penn State’s defense this year has been very impressive, holding six opponents to 10 points or fewer and giving up only 32 percent of available yards (seventh-fewest nationally). The key will be limiting the big play, and the Nittany Lions have been remarkably stout, allowing an explosive drive on only two percent of opponent possessions. Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez, alone, has more plays from scrimmage of 40 or more yards (four) than Penn State has given up all year (three). The Penn State offense plods to a weak 1.6 points per drive on offense. It’s nothing flashy, but it’s enough to take capitalize on a decent field position advantage and an elite defense. Penn State running back Silas Redd has five consecutive 100-yard performances heading into this weekend, and has carried the ball at least 28 times in four of the last five weeks. The Blackshirts have been torched on the ground more than once this year, but they’ll need to keep Redd in check in order to control the game. Even before the scandal broke last week, there were questions about whether the Nittany Lions would be able to finish strong due to the tough stretch of schedule they face in November. They are undefeated in conference play thus far, and one more victory might seal up a division title. Will this game actually come down to X's and O's, or will the emotional toll of this week be a bigger factor?

West Virginia (+3.5) at No. 23 Cincinnati (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC)

OVERALL When West Virginia
Has the Ball ...
When Cincinnati
Has the Ball ...
Category WVU
(6-3)
Cincinnati
(7-1)
WVU
Off
Cincinnati
Def
WVU
Def
Cincinnati
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 38 28
2011 FEI Rk 39 24 6 43 67 7
2011 S&P+ Rk 40 34 12 46 79 25
2011 FPA Rk 104 11
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 18 28 110 12
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 14 85 88 54
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 28 102 100 33
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
45.1% Run
(113th)
62.5% Run
(43rd)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 1 24 69 13
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
27.5% Run
(92nd)
34.8% Run
(45th)

The Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the positive surprises of 2011, having raced out to a 7-1 start, and they are on the verge of running away with the Big East title. West Virginia has been a bit of disappointment. Certainly, there were expectations of bumps in the road for Dana Holgorsen in his inaugural season in Morgantown, but after a 5-1 start (the only loss coming against LSU), West Virginia laid a pair of eggs on the road against Syracuse and at home against Louisville. The Mountaineers are capable of turning it around, and the league title can still be won if they can find some more consistency and avoid special teams miscues. Both the Orangemen and Cardinals scored special teams touchdowns in their victories and the Mountaineers have both a dreadful field position advantage and overall special teams efficiency. Cincinnati’s offense will take advantage of that if given the chance.

No. 17 Michigan State (-2.5) at Iowa (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

OVERALL When Michigan State
Has the Ball ...
When Iowa
Has the Ball ...
Category Mich. St.
(7-2)
Iowa
(6-3)
Mich. St.
Off
Iowa
Def
Mich. St.
Def
Iowa
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 16 36
2011 FEI Rk 14 31 50 46 13 29
2011 S&P+ Rk 17 43 57 61 9 30
2011 FPA Rk 20 33
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 74 40 11 41
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 47 101 17 31
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 58 81 7 35
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
59.6% Run
(59th)
59.1% Run
(61st)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 69 96 9 24
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
29.3% Run
(82nd)
34.2% Run
(50th)

Just when the Spartans were getting anxious about Big Ten tiebreakers, Michigan and Nebraska handed them back sole possession of the Legends division last weekend. The Spartans can’t take a road trip to Iowa City lightly, but they have the stronger overall team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Spartans aren’t allowing opponents to move the football at all -– they're No. 5 in available yards (31.5 percent), and No. 2 in value drives (18.4 percent). Hawkeyes running back Marcus Coker ranks fifth nationally in total yards on the ground (1101), and the battle at the line will be fierce. When Michigan State has the ball, which Kirk Cousins will be winging it for them? He put up the weakest passer rating of his career two weeks ago, on the road at Nebraska (40.7 completion percentage, zero touchdowns, one interception). Iowa played impressively against Michigan last week, but their overall profile is inconsistency as well. The Iowa defense can’t get opponents off the field, allowing an FBS-worst 29.8 percent of opponent drives to last 10 plays or more.

Florida (+3.5) at No. 13 South Carolina (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, CBS)

OVERALL When Florida
Has the Ball ...
When S. Carolina
Has the Ball ...
Category Florida
(5-4)
S. Caro.
(7-2)
Florida
Off
S. Caro.
Def
Florida
Def
S. Caro.
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 42 24
2011 FEI Rk 47 29 72 11 45 68
2011 S&P+ Rk 31 21 40 14 35 58
2011 FPA Rk 34 74
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 9 30 27 34
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 35 7 43 78
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 15 5 31 42
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
66.3% Run
(25th)
64.9% Run
(29th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 43 28 47 63
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
37.2% Run
(30th)
35.1% Run
(44th)

The poster children for the disappointing SEC East. Injuries have ravaged both offenses, but the issues in Gainesville and Columbia run deeper that that. South Carolina can't seem to deploy its advanced weaponry like Alshon Jeffrey and Ace Sanders. Without Marcus Lattimore, the Gamecocks are lost on offense, and the defense has tired from carrying the load. Their job will be easier on Saturday, as Florida has little attacking power on the flanks, with only nine passing plays of 30 or more yards this season. Connor Shaw was knocked out of the Arkansas game late, but is expected to play, as is John Brantley for UF, who likewise missed the end of the Vanderbilt game due to injury. Florida was strong defensively against the 'Dores, holding them to 80 yards rushing in ending its four-game losing nightmare. The Cocks need this one, and some help from Auburn against Georgia, to get back to the SEC title game. Shaw and his receivers will need to be far more effective than they have been thus far for that to occur.

Miami (+9) at Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN)

OVERALL When Miami
Has the Ball ...
When Florida State
Has the Ball ...
Category Miami
(5-4)
FSU
(6-3)
Miami
Off
FSU
Def
Miami
Def
FSU
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 31 10
2011 FEI Rk 20 17 1 18 93 45
2011 S&P+ Rk 42 9 13 6 80 34
2011 FPA Rk 30 14
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 28 8 44 57
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 9 20 113 30
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 16 6 84 37
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
60.8% Run
(53rd)
54.9% Run
(86th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 12 35 71 19
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
40.5% Run
(19th)
27.6% Run
(90th)

Florida State continued its renaissance under E.J. Manuel by bashing Boston College for its fourth straight win. Miami got healthy against Duke. The edge in this version of the great rivalry will likely be decided up front. Miami's massive offensive line, featuring stud left tackle Brandon Washington, will do battle with the Seminoles' powerful rush line, led by Bjoern Warner and Brandon Jenkins. Whichever unit can get the upper hand will have a significant advantage. Going the other way, The U's athletic defensive front should be able to control FSU's offensive line, which has struggled. The return of flashy frosh wideout Rashad Greene to the Noles offense could counteract that, as will the play of Manuel, who has finally been at full strength for the past couple of weeks. Jacory Harris has had a more consistent season than he's played for most of his career, but he will need to avoid mistakes in the cauldron of Doak Walker Stadium for Miami to win. The road team has won the last five times theses teams have met, so it's not like that's an impossibility.

No. 20 Auburn (+13.5) at No. 15 Georgia (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)

OVERALL When Auburn
Has the Ball ...
When Georgia
Has the Ball ...
Category Auburn
(6-3)
Georgia
(7-2)
Auburn
Off
Georgia
Def
Auburn
Def
Georgia
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 57 11
2011 FEI Rk 53 26 35 24 82 27
2011 S&P+ Rk 61 10 50 11 64 33
2011 FPA Rk 7 86
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 31 19 64 77
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 39 15 58 3
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 22 10 69 13
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
74.2% Run
(11th)
58.4% Run
(67th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 49 20 62 48
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
36.8% Run
(32nd)
48.6% Run
(sixth)

The season has played out just as many predicted for Georgia -- two early losses to Boise and South Carolina, as a young team found its feet, followed by seven straight wins against soft competition. Auburn is the last hurdle blocking a Dawg trip to the Georgia Dome, and this isn't the bunch that put 49 points on UGA a year ago. New Auburn quarterback Clint Moseley will undoubtedly get some confidence from his four-touchdown performance against Ole Miss, and the bye week can't hurt, either. The first Tiger priority, however, will be to establish Michael Dyer, who is second in the SEC in rushing, and it's speed sweeps. Georgia's defense has improved mightily since its early struggles, led by Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree. The Bulldogs' speedy secondary is well=suited to run with Dyer and Onterrio McCalebb. Georgia will have two important freshmen in the lineup: runner Isaiah Crowell, whose debut season has been marked by strong running and questionable off-field decision making, and impact receiver Malcolm Mitchell, who is ready to go after a hammy injury forced him to the sideline for the last three games.

TCU (+15) at No. 5 Boise State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, VS)

OVERALL When TCU
Has the Ball ...
When Boise State
Has the Ball ...
Category TCU
(7-2)
Boise St.
(8-0)
TCU
Off
Boise St.
Def
TCU
Def
Boise St.
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 33 3
2011 FEI Rk 44 7 40 12 44 37
2011 S&P+ Rk 25 3 26 3 31 7
2011 FPA Rk 10 1
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 29 15 6 36
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 57 1 67 7
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 41 15 20 21
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
64.9% Run
(28th)
58.7% Run
(63rd)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 45 5 72 17
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
42.5% Run
(15th)
29.9% Run
(75th)

With both teams looking ahead to moves to bigger conferences, this could be a one-off battle for Mountain West supremacy. Enjoy it while it lasts. Boise is equally concerned with beating the Frogs by enough to rally its flagging hopes for a BCS title game bid. At this moment, even the notion of being the sole unbeaten outside of LSU doesn't seem to carry much weight, which is ridiculous. So the Broncs would do well to pummel TCU, which is, of course, easier said than done. Gary Patterson's defense was shoddy early, but it has dropped about 100 yards allowed per game off its average in October. TCU has won 21 straight conference games, and has played Boise very tough in recent bowl meetups. Quarterback Kellen Moore is at the top of his game, but Boise is beat up. Leading rusher Doug Martin left the UNLV game with a leg injury, and two important defenders, Billy Winn and Jamar Taylor, didn't dress in Vegas. This game was originally slated for Ft. Worth, but the MWC moved it to Boise to spite TCU for leaving. With Boise likely gone too, perhaps they should instead consider playing somewhere in Colorado.

Washington (+12.5) at USC (Saturday, 3:45 PM ET, FX)

OVERALL When Washington
Has the Ball ...
When USC
Has the Ball ...
Category UW
(6-3)
USC
(7-2)
UW
Off
USC
Def
UW
Def
USC
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 51 18
2011 FEI Rk 52 10 14 51 81 10
2011 S&P+ Rk 50 30 27 43 78 20
2011 FPA Rk 105 17
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 39 54 71 43
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 13 28 62 17
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 27 48 61 14
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
57.9% Run
(73rd)
49.8% Run
(106th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 14 58 92 29
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
32.8% Run
(63rd)
33.7% Run
(55th)

USC is playing some of its best football of late, but there is an underlying concern about the defensive side of the ball. The Trojans don’t usher opponents off the field very swiftly, allowing at least one first down on 71 percent of opponent drives (88th nationally) and giving up 4.5 points per opponent methodical drive (101st nationally). Washington’s offense can take advantage of that if Huskies quarterback Keith Price keeps cool under pressure. He has 25 touchdown passes this year, third in the Pac-12 behind only Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, but his 10 interceptions have held the Huskies back in a few games. USC has been consistently strong under Kiffin in maintaining a field position advantage, a weakness for the Huskies and a key to this game. Washington has lost the field position battle in every loss this year, and they’ve struggled to dig themselves out of poor starting field position against the competent defenses they’ve faced.

No. 7 Oregon (+3.5) at No. 4 Stanford (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

OVERALL When Oregon
Has the Ball ...
When Stanford
Has the Ball ...
Category Oregon
(8-1)
Stanford
(9-0)
Oregon
Off
Stanford
Def
Oregon
Def
Stanford
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 7 8
2011 FEI Rk 9 4 20 10 9 28
2011 S&P+ Rk 4 13 2 26 10 10
2011 FPA Rk 53 32
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 3 47 29 38
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 8 24 9 33
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 2 30 11 18
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
67.6% Run
(22nd)
60.1% Run
(56th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 47 26 17 65
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
47.9% Run
(eighth)
36.4% Run
(33rd)

We wrote about Stanford’s edge in value drives for ESPN earlier this week, but that conversation was almost exclusively FEI-based. Oregon and Stanford are one of those great test cases for our two systems, FEI and S&P+. The drive-based data likes Stanford more (in part due to special teams play) and the play-by-play system is favoring the Ducks. We created F/+ to smooth out the differences, but it can also call our attention to the things to watch out for in a game like this. How will Stanford manage to meet Oregon’s aggressive, up-tempo attack, and can they do so over a full 60 minutes? The Cardinal jumped out to an early lead last season and were obliterated in the second half. Will Oregon have any success defending the red zone, Andrew Luck’s most prolific and efficient area of the field? Will this game come down to field position and special teams play, an apparent advantage for Stanford? The Cardinal still need help to get to a BCS title game, and after having played one of the softest schedules to date, they need to seize games like this one to impress voters and computers alike.

Storylines of the Week

Robert Weintraub: We'll keep it short this week, as there is only one story, and any sentient being should have the same opinion on it. Just read the grand jury report. In a sport where doing the right thing is often anathema to the people involved in it, this is the most graphic and horrific example. When people talk about the system in college football being broken, they aren't necessarily talking about the culture of deification of the major programs, but as this incident proves, it's as compelling a problem as paying players or figuring out a playoff system.

Brian Fremeau: It won’t get quite the same attention as last week’s Game of the Century, but it will be big, and Oregon-Stanford might be just as significant in the national championship race. Like last week’s SEC battle, it represents the de facto championship game for a division, and for all practical purposes, for the league as a whole. I know this kind of thing has happened before, but should we be pleased or upset that the best two teams from the Pac-12 and the best two teams from the SEC won’t be playing one another in those respective conference championship games? They do meet in the regular season, which is great. Some might argue that a playoff would be better for college football because the loser of these kinds of games are all but eliminated from the national conversation. On the other hand, some might argue that regular season games are that much more special because they mean so much. The method by which we crown a national champion in college football, and in these cases, the way we crown conference champions, demands major regular season clashes like these. I hope we demand that any changes and improvements to the postseason down the road reinforce that importance rather than diminish it.

Picks

The Picks
(* - "Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week")
Visitor Spread Home Rob F/+
Va. Tech -1 Ga. Tech Ga. Tech Ga. Tech
Nebraska -3 Penn St. Nebraska Penn St.
W. Virginia +3.5 Cincinnati Cincy Cincy
Michigan St. -2.5 Iowa Mich. St. Mich. St.
Florida +3.5 S. Carolina S. Carolina S. Carolina*
Miami +9 Florida St. Miami Fla. St.
Auburn +13.5 Georgia Auburn Georgia
TCU +15 Boise State TCU Boise
Washington +12.5 USC USC* Washington
Oregon +3.5 Stanford Oregon Oregon
Season-long Results
("Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week" record in parentheses)
Last Week
Season Total
F/+: 3-7 (0-1) 49-50-1 (4-6)
Rob: 7-3 (1-0) 52-47-1 (5-4-1)

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 10 Nov 2011

11 comments, Last at 14 Nov 2011, 7:39pm by Kal

Comments

1
by andrew :: Thu, 11/10/2011 - 10:04pm

One of my thoughts this week was "they should rename Happy Valley". Then I looked it up and saw it wasn't an official name, just a nickname.

2
by Brian Fremeau :: Thu, 11/10/2011 - 10:31pm

Sorry for the initial error, but Rob's pick in the USC-Washington game is the Trojans, not Huskies, and he made USC his lock of the week. We've updated the table.

3
by Tom Gower :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 2:13am

Whee, missed the Thursday night game again. Glad to see VT go down. I'll take Nebraska, Cincinnati, Iowa, South Carolina, Miami, Georgia, Boise, USC, and Stanford. The Hawkeyes and Cardinal are my counter-consensus picks, and I'll take the Hawkeyes as my Edelstein lock.

6
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:00am

VT won, big guy.

Incidentally, how did GT have such a highly-rated defense? Their scoring stats are abominable, given their level of competition and average time-of-possession numbers.

4
by Kal :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 2:23am

Sad to say, but fei was more right last year than s&p. So oregons gonna have a tough time.

5
by Iostcause :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 7:04am

FSU's stadium is Doak Campbell, not Doak Walker.

7
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:01am

Doak Walker could make a field goal.

8
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:02am

Robert Weintraub: We'll keep it short this week, as there is only one story, and any sentient being should have the same opinion on it. Just read the grand jury report.
Any opinion that cannot handle scrutiny is not worth having.

9
by Adam H (not verified) :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:47pm

Funny how no one's talking about the stupid "statistic" that the loser of the UGA/USC game has never won the SEC East. You'd think this is the week that would be relevant.

10
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 11/11/2011 - 2:03pm

Primarily because usually the winner of the UGa/USC game doesn't win the SEC East, either.

Much in the same way that people largely don't care about the winner of the Illinois-Northwestern or UNC-NC State games.

11
by Kal :: Mon, 11/14/2011 - 7:39pm

Woo! S&P Wins! (at least for Oregon).

Though I bet that as far as it goes FEI likes Oregon's game a lot more than S&P does. Oregon won through more turnovers (3 meaningful ones to 2), shorter fields and conversion of chances. But as far as methodical drives they didn't do as well as Stanford did, and Stanford (in the eyes of S&P) faced a far more difficult defense. Plus, all those turnovers didn't matter as far as S&P goes. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ducks stayed the same in F+ but FEI said they were awesome - and S&P said that they were meh.