Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Oct 2011

SDA: Rebound Saturday

by Brian Fremeau and Robert Weintraub

Last week we predicted a possible upset Saturday and lo and behold we got a few of the undefeated behemoths to fall. This week, we'll have our eyes on Oklahoma and Wisconsin again to see how they respond in what might be challenging bounceback games. Both teams can still be in the mix for conference championships, and if the chips fall the right way, the national title isn't out of the picture either. Will they easily shake off the disappointment or might they struggle again?

On the other side of the coin, USC is looking to ride the momentum of its signature win last weekend by hosting undefeated Stanford in the L.A. Coliseum. There are tricky road landmines this week for a few other national and conference contenders as well, including Clemson, South Carolina, Michigan State and West Virginia. And Georgia and Florida face off in their annual clash in Jacksonville, a game that doesn't have national title implications but one that might go a long way in impacting the future balance of power in the SEC East.

Previews

Virginia (+14.5) at Miami (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

OVERALL When Virginia
Has the Ball ...
When Miami
Has the Ball ...
Category Virginia
(4-3)
Miami
(4-3)
Virginia
Off
Miami
Def
Virginia
Def
Miami
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 54 22
2011 FEI Rk 57 15
2011 S&P+ Rk 48 41 82 68 24 25
2011 FPA Rk 95 50
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 59 52 27 35
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 99 84 25 9
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 93 66 9 25
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
58.2% Run
(65th)
62.5% Run
(39th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 59 60 46 27
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
33.1% Run
(56th)
39.7% Run
(24th)

Both schools are 4-3, yet this feels like a mismatch, especially after the Cavs fell to lowly N.C. State by two touchdowns last Saturday.  Not that anyone would necessarily know that, as this game will be UVA's first on national television this season, and its first Thursday-nighter since 2006.  Miami followed Virginia's blueprint in beating Georgia Tech by stopping the dive play and forcing the Jackets to win the game on the flanks.  The speedy Canes D prevented that from happening, and it doesn't figure that the Virginia QB combo of Michael (Hey) Rocco and freshman David Watford will fare much better.  Miami signal caller Jacory Harris has finally cut down on the turnovers that have plagued his career, with just four picks on the season.  He will have vengeance on his mind after last year's upset loss in Charlottesville, when Harris was knocked into oblivion on a hit that basically submarined Miami's 2010 season.  And since we are a stats site, here's a random (and perhaps meaningless) one: The U is 15-2 on Thursday night.

No. 9 Michigan State (+5.5) at No. 13 Nebraska (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)

OVERALL When Michigan St.
Has the Ball ...
When Nebraska
Has the Ball ...
Category MSU
(6-1)
Nebraska
(6-1)
MSU
Off
Nebraska
Def
MSU
Def
Nebraska
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 9 34
2011 FEI Rk 5 37
2011 S&P+ Rk 10 26 38 18 6 48
2011 FPA Rk 33 19
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 65 35 12 40
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 29 12 3 66
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 43 52 12 47
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
60.7% Run
(49th)
75.8% Run
(seventh)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 38 20 1 81
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
29.6% Run
(74th)
42.2% Run
(16th)

After Michigan State’s thrilling victory over Wisconsin, the Spartans are in the driver’s seat to roll through the rest of the conference schedule and play in the inaugural B1G Championship. Let’s not forget about the Cornhuskers just yet, however. Nebraska controls its own destiny in the Legends division and can have a signature moment by leading with what they do best. Nebraska ranks second in the country in special teams efficiency, and No. 1 in kickoff returns led by freshman Ameer Abdullah (32 yards per return, 1 TD). Defending kickoffs hasn’t been a strength for Michigan State, either. If Nebraska can create a strong field position advantage, Taylor Martinez and company have the explosiveness (No. 10 in explosive drive percentage) to beat the Spartans defense on a short field. On offense, which Kirk Cousins will it show up? Efficient Cousins keeps drives alive with solid decision making (vs. Wisconsin), but inconsistent Cousins kicks open the door for turnovers and a bogged-down offense that can’t move the chains (vs. Michigan, Notre Dame). Coach Mark Dantonio has Michigan State playing with confidence, but they’ve laid a few eggs in big spots in recent seasons. As a 5.5-point underdog, is the betting public counting on it?

No. 22 Georgia (-2.5) at Florida (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)

OVERALL When Georgia
Has the Ball ...
When Florida
Has the Ball ...
Category Georgia
(5-2)
Florida
(4-3)
Georgia
Off
Florida
Def
Georgia
Def
Florida
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 18 40
2011 FEI Rk 27 52
2011 S&P+ Rk 14 23 32 26 16 33
2011 FPA Rk 91 49
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 90 31 29 9
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 2 32 15 43
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 7 35 16 23
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
58.0% Run
(69th)
67.9% Run
(20th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 44 31 30 47
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
51.2% Run
(sixth)
40.3% Run
(22th)

Cocktails!  Get your cocktails here!  The annual jorts-fest in J-ville is usually a scrimmage for the Gators, who have beaten their border rivals 17 of the last 20.  But the Dawgs have things set up for them this time around, especially if Florida quarterback John Brantley either can't go or is rendered ineffective by his injured ankle.  UGA is also buoyed by the return of key defenders Alec Ogletree and Cornelius Washington, although a pair of defenders, including stud end Kwane Geathers, will miss the first half after flagrant personal fouls in the Cheap Shot Bowl against Vandy.  While Florida has struggled to find consistency in Brantley's absence, Georgia has the wind in its sails after an 0-2 start.  A win over the bully to the south would set the Bulldogs up nicely for an SEC East title run.  A loss would probably mean the end of Mark Richt's stay on the sideline.  With super-talented freshman receiver Malcolm Mitchell still slowed by a hammy pull, another star frosh, runner Isaiah Crowell (87 YPG), is key.  The troubled back can be a handful -- he was benched for the start of a recent game, with Richt cynically giving as a reason, "I love him."  We'll see just how far the romance goes in a must-win rivalry game.

No. 25 West Virginia (-7) at Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)

OVERALL When West Virginia
Has the Ball ...
When Rutgers
Has the Ball ...
Category WVU
(5-2)
Rutgers
(5-2)
WVU
Off
Rutgers
Def
WVU
Def
Rutgers
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 45 38
2011 FEI Rk 45 18
2011 S&P+ Rk 43 65 29 20 65 102
2011 FPA Rk 100 13
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 48 33 95 107
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 27 23 78 92
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 46 25 93 112
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
44.0% Run
(115th)
60.2% Run
(51st)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 4 21 47 88
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
25.0% Run
(106th)
23.8% Run
(111th)

Take a look at the Big East standings and try to project the league champion. We dare you. South Florida was an early season darling and sits at the bottom of the pile at 0-3. Cincinnati is the league’s first bowl-eligible team. West Virginia inexplicably fell flat on its face in the Carrier Dome last week and now faces the league’s best defense on the road this week. The Big East is ripe to be dominated by Dana Holgorsen’s electric offense for the few short years it will remain intact, but they’ll need to get a bit more consistency out of Geno Smith to do so. Smith is only 14-of-26 on third and six-or-less this year. Those killers have spoiled the Mountaineers success in getting drives going in the first place -– 83 percent of West Virginia’s drives earn at least one first down, third best rate in the nation. Rutgers defense has been very, very stingy this season, allowing only one opponent (North Carolina) to score more than 20 points.

Baylor (+18) at No. 3 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)

OVERALL When Baylor
Has the Ball ...
When Oklahoma St.
Has the Ball ...
Category Baylor
(4-2)
OSU
(7-0)
Baylor
Off
OSU
Def
Baylor
Def
OSU
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 27 6
2011 FEI Rk 40 4
2011 S&P+ Rk 17 6 4 7 74 7
2011 FPA Rk 67 10
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 16 23 53 1
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 4 4 91 42
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 4 31 81 15
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
57.7% Run
(71st)
44.5% Run
(113th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 6 4 79 13
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
35.7% Run
(35th)
27.6% Run
(89th)

For all the much-deserved acclaim Robert Griffin III has received over the years, he is still seeking a signature conference victory. The highlight reel is dynamite, but the Big 12 breakthrough for Baylor is still sputtering a bit, and the Bears have essentially been forgotten in the conference race. He’s got a big chance this week, however, against a Cowboys defense prone to giving up chunks of yardage. Our opponent-adjusted numbers love Oklahoma State’s defense because they’ve faced so many strong offenses, but they can be gashed, and Baylor has the weapons to take advantage. Unfortunately, RG3 can’t play defense and the Bears have little chance of slowing down the Oklahoma State offense. The only way to beat the Cowboys is to take advantage of every opportunity, and the Cowboys can be forced into three-and-outs. Baylor needs to score on the next possession every time that happens on Saturday if they’ll have any shot at the upset.

No. 11 Oklahoma (-13.5) at No. 10 Kansas State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)

OVERALL When Oklahoma
Has the Ball ...
When Kansas State
Has the Ball ...
Category Oklahoma
(6-1)
KSU
(7-0)
Oklahoma
Off
KSU
Def
Oklahoma
Def
KSU
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 8 31
2011 FEI Rk 11 12
2011 S&P+ Rk 7 62 21 44 5 74
2011 FPA Rk 5 3
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 39 45 6 76
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 33 27 7 101
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 24 38 4 79
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
52.3% Run
(98th)
75.1% Run
(ninth)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 31 24 6 103
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
12.4% Run
(120th)
46.8% Run
(eighth)

Ah, College Gameday, thy love is so fleeting.  Chris, Kirk, Coach and the crew were all set for a trip to Manhattan for this one when the Sooners had to go and screw things up, losing at home for the first time since 2005.  So the bright lights are off to SoCal, and Bill Snyder will have to continue his remarkable coaching job in anonymity.  The 70-year old only came back to K-State because Ron Prince was ruining what Snyder had built, and lo and behold, here are the Wildcats, unbeaten and in a position to eliminate Oklahoma's still quite viable hopes for a backdoor BCS run.  Quarterback Collin Klein may have the name of a fey fashion designer, but he's tough as nails, with 14 rushing TDs to go with efficient if hardly spectacular passing numbers.  He'll need to continue to avoid turnovers if K-State is to defeat OU.  The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games since Y2K panic was sweeping the nation.  Even in defeat, the Sooners offense put up big numbers against Texas Tech, but sloppy tackling and missed field goals led to the upset.  K-State is still allowing fewer than 20 points a game, but they can be gashed--Baylor and Texas Tech put up big numbers on them.  Snyder's bunch has thrived on making big plays at critical times.  The key will be keeping this one close enough so that trend can continue.

No. 14 South Carolina (-4) at Tennessee (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

OVERALL When South Carolina
Has the Ball ...
When Tennessee
Has the Ball ...
Category S.C.
(6-1)
Tennessee
(3-4)
S.C.
Off
Tennessee
Def
S.C.
Def
Tennessee
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 28 35
2011 FEI Rk 26 49
2011 S&P+ Rk 30 18 54 43 21 8
2011 FPA Rk 32 102
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 38 30 36 12
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 64 35 30 3
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 31 32 8 29
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
64.3% Run
(29th)
58.8% Run
(63rd)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 60 32 64 1
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
33.8% Run
(53rd)
27.3% Run
(91st)

Props to Gamecocks Athletic Director Eric Hyman for having the foresight to schedule the bye week precisely when his school needed it most.  After a dismal week that saw Stephen Garcia at last exiled and bellcow back Marcus Lattimore lost for the season to a knee injury, the Cocks desperately needed some time to retreat to the wired cage and lick their feathers.  Brandon Wilds, who has exactly 13 carries in his career, will take over for the brilliant Lattimore, who scored thirty touchdowns in a season and a half.  The Vols are still reeling from a devastating injury in their own huddle, the broken thumb that took out quarterback Tyler Bray.  Matt Simms was ineffective against Alabama (who hasn't been?), so UT will turn to freshman Justin Worley to lead the attack.  It won't be any easier against a Cocks pass defense that leads the nation in yards allowed (138 YPG).  Knoxville is generally a chamber of horrors for South Carolina, who have won just once in its last 15 trips to the Tennessee River.  Even without Lattimore, this seems like an excellent chance for South Carolina to improve that dismal record.

No. 4 Stanford (-7.5) at No. 20 USC (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

OVERALL When Stanford
Has the Ball ...
When USC
Has the Ball ...
Category Stanford
(7-0)
USC
(6-1)
Stanford
Off
USC
Def
Stanford
Def
USC
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 7 21
2011 FEI Rk 7 16
2011 S&P+ Rk 8 34 11 46 8 27
2011 FPA Rk 12 21
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 49 54 19 34
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 30 41 9 26
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 20 46 11 14
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
59.7% Run
(57th)
51.8% Run
(101st)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 74 50 16 43
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
35.3% Run
(38th)
34.8% Run
(45th)

Here’s a couple of fun facts. According to GFEI (opponent-adjusted single game efficiency), USC’s victory over Notre Dame was the best game played to date this season, and the Trojans victory over Minnesota earlier in the year was the worst for a winning team. In terms of variance, USC is the most schizophrenic team in the nation. Which one will show up against Stanford, a team that has been as consistently dominant as any in memory? The Cardinal have recorded ten straight victories by at least 25 points, the only team to do so in the poll era (since 1936). Andrew Luck will finally face a competent defense for the first time all year (No. 120 offensive SOS to date according to FEI), but that won’t slow him down too much. Luck was one of only two quarterbacks in the nation last season to post consistently strong pass efficiency numbers against both the top and bottom defenses he faced. The key for USC will be Matt Barkley, who was as good as ever against Notre Dame last weekend, and Robert Woods (10.3 yards per reception). USC has been great this year at extending drives, and the longer they can keep the ball out of Luck’s hands, the better off they’ll be.

No. 6 Clemson (-4.5) at Georgia Tech (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)

OVERALL When Clemson
Has the Ball ...
When Georgia Tech
Has the Ball ...
Category Clemson
(8-0)
Ga. Tech
(6-2)
Clemson
Off
Ga. Tech
Def
Clemson
Def
Ga. Tech
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 15 23
2011 FEI Rk 3 29
2011 S&P+ Rk 37 21 24 36 53 14
2011 FPA Rk 22 48
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 46 85 75 21
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 19 10 56 20
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 28 74 61 33
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
59.8% Run
(56th)
87.0% Run
(third)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 17 34 40 25
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
29.9% Run
(73rd)
62.2% Run
(second)

All of Atlanta was getting fired up for this one a fortnight ago, but true to its nature, the Yellow Jackets dissipated the momentum by falling in consecutive games.  Perhaps they should change the team nickname to the Scorpions, as in the Parable of the Scorpion and the Frog.  Tech's machine-like rushing attack has thrown a gasket, averaging just 253 yards on offense the last two games.  The triple-option should find some room to operate against a Clemson D that allows nearly 170 yards per game on the ground.  But can it score enough and hold the ball from the Tahj Mahal, Sudden Sammy, and the rest of Clemson's high-flying attack?  Tahj Boyd has thrust himself into Heisman contention with a huge run of games (Boyd and Kellen Moore are tied with 24 TD passes for tops in the country), Sammy Watkins is not only the best freshman in the country, he might be the best player of any age, and the Tigers lead the ACC in yards (482)  and points (40) per game.  A win on the Flats would give Clemson it's best start (9-0) since the fabled 1981 national championship team, when this writer was a little boy and harangued his mother into buying him a Perry Tuttle jersey.  Something about the paw on the shoulders.

No. 12 Wisconsin (-8.5) at Ohio State (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)

OVERALL When Wisconsin
Has the Ball ...
When Ohio State
Has the Ball ...
Category Wisconsin
(6-1)
Ohio St.
(4-3)
Wisconsin
Off
Ohio St.
Def
Wisconsin
Def
Ohio St.
Off
2011 F/+ Rk 5 26
2011 FEI Rk 9 22
2011 S&P+ Rk 5 33 1 14 27 65
2011 FPA Rk 18 4
2011 Rushing S&P+ Rk 7 11 44 37
2011 Passing S&P+ Rk 1 13 48 79
2011 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 3 15 69 80
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
69.5% Run
(16th)
74.4% Run
(10th)
2011 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 7 25 13 41
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)
44.1% Run
(12nd)
42.9% Run
(15th)

This game has all the makings of a potential bloodbath in favor of Wisconsin. It’s an opportunity to unleash the frustration over losing on a last-second pass last weekend and motivation to not let another game slip away and get in the way of Leaders division championship. And does anybody trust this year’s Buckeyes team to step up and win a big game this season? (No, beating previously undefeated Illinois doesn’t count). The only scenario by which Ohio State wins is by playing a perfect field position game – pin Wisconsin consistently deep on punts, record a couple of turnovers to give itself a chance for short field scores, etc. If the two teams play straight up, Wisconsin’s offense will get points (they haven’t been held under 30 this year) and Ohio State can’t keep up (the Buckeyes haven’t scored 30 against anyone other than lowly Akron). Russell Wilson’s Heisman campaign hit a speed bump in East Lansing, but he still leads the nation in yards per attempt (11.9) and boasts the nation’s No. 2 pass efficiency.

Storylines of the Week

Robert Weintraub: Which do you prefer, a one-loss Choklahoma led by "Big Game" Bob Stoops, or the "Let's see them play in a real conference, you know, like the crappy Big Ten or Pac-12 or the SEC East" Boise Staters?  Because the BCS championship game opponent of the LSU-Alabama winner could well come down to that choice, which would explode talk radio for several weeks but leave most folks unfulfilled.  That's provided OU takes out K-State and OK-State, Stanford loses, Clemson loses, and, probably, LSU defeats Bama, which would preclude Oregon from the mix (no one wants to see the Bayou Bengals crush them again).  All of that is quite feasible if not likely.  That would allow the Sooners to come roaring out of Tornado Alley with their fanbase screaming about strength of schedule, demanding to play for All The Tostitos against the SEC champ instead of Boise, who don't play a tough sked but would be thriving just fine in any conference this season, thank you very much.  Ugh.  I think I speak for all fans of reasonable discourse when I say let's go, Wildcats, clap clap clapclapclap...

Brian Fremeau: I'm not sure what to make of it, but we haven't had an overtime game since October 6th (Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee). It sure looked like Michigan State and Wisconsin were headed there last weekend, but we were denied overtime drama in favor of a Hail Mary replay booth review. There have only been 12 overtime FBS vs. FBS games so far this year, behind the average pace per season. I know the college overtime system generally gets a bad rap, but I like the pressure it puts on the offenses and defenses to perform in an automatic scoring territory. The drama of each possession is that much more memorable. I'm hoping we'll get at least one in a high profile game or two this week or some time down the stretch.

Picks

The Picks
(* - "Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week")
Visitor Spread Home Rob F/+
Virginia +14.5 Miami Miami Virginia
Michigan St. +5.5 Nebraska Nebraska Mich. St.*
Georgia -2.5 Florida Georgia Georgia
W. Virginia -7 Rutgers W. Virginia Rutgers
Baylor +18 Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. Baylor
Oklahoma -13.5 Kansas St. Oklahoma Oklahoma
S. Carolina -4 Tennessee S. Carolina Tennessee
Stanford -7.5 USC USC Stanford
Clemson -4.5 Georgia Tech Clemson* Ga. Tech
Wisconsin -8.5 Ohio State Wisconsin Wisconsin
Season-long Results
("Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week" record in parentheses)
Last Week
Season Total
F/+: 4-6 (0-1) 41-38-1 (4-4)
Rob: 6-4 (1-0) 39-40-1 (3-4-1)

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 27 Oct 2011

9 comments, Last at 30 Oct 2011, 3:22am by Solomon

Comments

1
by Kal :: Thu, 10/27/2011 - 8:06pm

"which would preclude Oregon from the mix (no one wants to see the Bayou Bengals crush them again)"

Give us a slightly more neutral field (say, not 500 miles away from LSU vs 2000 from Oregon) and DeAnthony Thomas not carrying the ball like a crazy man and fumbling twice and I'd like Oregon's chances. There's a reason that S&P and FEI both like Oregon this year, and the two teams aren't so far apart.

Another way to put it: when the opposing team has 5 scoring drives that start at the 28 yard line or less, it's probably not quite the dominating performance you think it was.

3
by Alexander :: Thu, 10/27/2011 - 8:54pm

LSU looks like it is getting better as the year goes on, even with injuries.

8
by Kal :: Sat, 10/29/2011 - 4:05am

The exact same thing could be said about Oregon. The person who was probably most responsible for Oregon's loss (De'Anthony Thomas) has not fumbled once since that game and has gotten significantly better as both a runner and a receiver. The Oregon defense is playing better as well.

I think it could be a very good game again, decided again by luck-based issues.

2
by Tom Gower :: Thu, 10/27/2011 - 8:30pm

Picks: Miami, Georgia, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, South Carolina, USC, Clemson, and Ohio State. Buckeyes are the only counter-consensus pick, so they're automatically the Edelstein. Can't believe I'm agreeing with Rob on 9 of 10, that's how I see this week. Hope we do well.

4
by horn :: Thu, 10/27/2011 - 9:00pm

This Miami fan knows they can't give anyone better than, say Bethune-Cookman more than a 2 TD spread.

5
by Solomon :: Thu, 10/27/2011 - 9:21pm

Beating Illinois was pretty big for Ohio State at the time, but apparently the UM writer does not want to give any credit to OSU.

That is a huge point spread for Kansas State, especially at home.

Hopefully, Boise State loses before the title game.

With its strong defense, Ohio State has a decent chance to beat Wisky. OSU probably needs B. Miller to complete around 15 passes (at least 10). Granted, Miller has yet to come close to that number yet.

7
by PHn (not verified) :: Fri, 10/28/2011 - 4:04pm

I'm interested to know what you think a Boise State loss accomplishes.

I'd say Boise St. on a neutral field would stand a good chance of beating any of the current non-SEC teams with aspirations of reaching the title game.

Compared to the Broncos, I don't think any Pac 12, Big 12, or Big 10 team has a significantly better chance of beating the SEC champion. That assessment may change after I've seen Stanford and Oklahoma St. win more games against elite competition, but as it stands now, I think dismissing Boise St. is a huge mistake.

6
by TV_Pete (not verified) :: Fri, 10/28/2011 - 2:51pm

I think a rematch of LSU vs. Alabama is more likely if the Home team (Alabama) wins by 1 or 2 points, perhaps as a result of an officiating call/error.

LSU has faced what may be the toughest schedule of the year, so they seem more likely to edge out Boise State in a perfect storm than any other 1-loss team.

9
by Solomon :: Sun, 10/30/2011 - 3:22am

Well, a Boise State loss accomplishes keeping it out of the title game. I detest Boise State, so that is good for me.

Great win for Ohio State tonight! Miller completed only 7 passes, but that was enough. The D had some late lapses to make it interesting.

Oklahoma-Kansas State reminds me of why I do not bet on football.