by Matt Hinton

The Red River Shootout -– I'm sorry, Red River Rivalry –- always carries do-or-die implications in the Big 12 standings. But it's been a long time since it's come with such a pungent hint of an undercard: Oklahoma and Texas both are already sporting conference losses at the hands of resurgent Kansas State and newcomer West Virginia, respectively (both coming at home, no less), and neither is ranked in the top ten for the Shootout for the first time since 1999. Both programs were in the beginning stages of "rebuilding" mode then under new head coaches, Bob Stoops and Mack Brown, who would go on to combine for ten conference titles and six appearances in the BCS national championship game over the next dozen years.

Theoretically, all of that is still within reach for these two teams, though it would require some help in the polls and more than we've seen from either of them on the field in quite some time. Oklahoma blew its No. 1 ranking last year in an inexplicable loss to Texas Tech, fell apart amid a flurry of key injuries in November, and then sleepwalked through this September. Texas, coming off a pair of disappointing seasons in 2010 and 2011, seemed to validate the growing pains in a dramatic, come-from-behind win at Oklahoma State, only to watch the defense wilt last week under the heat of West Virginia's atomic offense. That loss was Texas' seventh straight against a ranked opponent dating back to the 2010 BCS title game.

This year, the shootout is less about setting the stage for a title run than it is mere survival. The loser in Dallas is effectively out of the Big 12 race, out of contention for a BCS game, and on the fast track to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, which, yes, is an actual thing now. The winner emerges with renewed optimism and at least a shot at a season worthy of the logo on the helmet. At this point, that's all they can ask for.

No. 13 Oklahoma (-3) vs. No. 15 Texas (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)

It wasn't the vintage offensive outburst Sooners fans had been waiting for, but in the wake of an uninspiring September, Oklahoma's convincing win at Texas Tech last week was an obvious step in the right direction. With a defensive score and four offensive touchdown drives covering at least 50 yards, OU put nearly as many points on the board (41) as the Red Raiders' surprisingly-feisty defense had allowed in its first four games combined (43). After an opening-night scare at UTEP and a lackluster, turnover-marred loss to Kansas State, at least it was a comfortable, suitably Oklahoma-worthy effort.

That doesn't mean it will be good enough to beat Texas. Four games in, the Sooners are still justifiably concerned about an offensive line that was hit hard by injuries in the preseason, and has yet to gel in the running game or in protecting senior quarterback Landry Jones. Both are pressing issues against a Longhorn defense that actually was able to get some pressure on Geno Smith in last week's loss to West Virginia, creating two key turnovers in the process, but was ultimately undone by the Mountaineer ground game. Scoring is a given here, but if Texas' All-American bookends, Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat, bring the kind of heat they have the last two weeks against the very similarly-structured, quick-passing schemes of Oklahoma State and West Virginia, it's only a matter of time before they come up with a game-changing turnover.

No. 6 Kansas State (-6.5) at Iowa State (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FX)

Iowa State added another scalp to its trophy room last week in a 37-23 upset at TCU, its fourth win over a ranked team in the last three years, at least temporarily vaulting the Cyclones into the polls themselves for the first time since 2005. They should enjoy it while it lasts: With last week's 56-16 obliteration of Kansas, Kansas State gave no hint of a hangover following an above-the-fold upset of its own at Oklahoma, and with 346 yards rushing on more than nine yards per carry, gave every indication that the offense is hitting its stride in time for a crucial midseason run. In 20 career starts by senior quarterback Collin Klein, the Wildcats have yet to lose a game they were favored to win.

No. 1 Alabama (-21) at Missouri (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Short of a rash of food poisoning at Alabama's pregame meal, or the bus carrying the entire Crimson Tide defense getting stuck in traffic en route to the stadium, there really aren't even any hypothetical circumstances in which Missouri looks like a significant upset threat, especially on the heels of a sobering, 24-20 win over Arizona State on Sept. 15, was aided by four ASU turnovers and a botched punt snap that led to an easy Mizzou touchdown. Alabama, on the other hand, has turned the ball over a grand total of three times in its first five games and leads the nation in turnover margin –- one of the few categories it didn't dominate during last year's BCS title run. Even if Berkstresser manages to keep the defense out of trouble, the Tigers will probably require three takeaways just to keep it competitive.

No. 10 Oregon State (+6) at BYU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN3)

Oregon State just lost its starting quarterback, Sean Mannion, at the same time that BYU is getting its starting quarterback back from a two-week absence. But the Cougars were struggling badly on offense long before Riley Nelson was knocked out of the lineup at Boise State, where they turned the ball over five times and did not come close to scoring until the final, desperate drive of the game, with Nelson on the bench. The previous week, the offense had needed short fields to kick start two of its three touchdown drives in a 24-21 loss at Utah; last week, the Cougars were held to a single touchdown in a defensively-driven, 6-3 slugfest against Utah State.

Obviously, the BYU defense has held up its end, holding opposing offenses out of the end zone in 13 consecutive quarters. With a new, very green quarterback (junior Cody Vaz) taking the reins from Mannion, Oregon State is going to have a tough time faring much better. But the Cougars have hardly proven they're good for more than a touchdown or two, either, if that.

No. 17 Stanford (+7.5) at No. 7 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

There was some thought last week that Notre Dame's previously-impenetrable defense would finally be exposed against Miami, which boasted a proven deep passing attack capable of giving the Fighting Irish's fledgling cornerbacks their first real workout of the season. Which may have proven quite prescient, if Hurricane receivers hadn't come down with a debilitating case of the dropsies. As it was, they failed to score a touchdown in a 41-3 rout, extending Notre Dame's streak of holding opposing offenses out of the end zone to three full games and counting.

If the Irish are susceptible in the secondary, Stanford hardly looks like the team to exploit it after losing what little deep speed it had in the first place with an injury to sophomore receiver Ty Montgomery. With or without a consistent downfield threat, the Cardinal passing game relies heavily on creating mismatches for huge, improbably athletic tight ends Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo off play-action. That means forcing defenses to first respect senior workhorse Stepfan Taylor between the tackles. Nobody plays that old-school game better right now than Stanford, but the next team that successfully runs the ball right at Manti Te'o and Co. will be the first.

No. 5 West Virginia (-3.5) at Texas Tech (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN)

As the point spread indicates, there are no sure things in Lubbock, where many a promising season has gone to die. And even after last week's loss to Oklahoma, the Red Raiders are still looking significantly better defensively than any Tech fan has the right to expect on the heels of a decade of fully embracing the up-tempo shootouts that have come to define the conference. Nowhere is that more true right now, however, than at West Virginia, where Dana Holgorsen –- a longtime Texas Tech assistant under Mike Leach in the salad days of the "Air Raid" -– has the Mountaineers operating on an entirely different plane.

With four touchdown passes in last week's 48-45 win at Texas, WVU quarterback Geno Smith has 24 touchdowns for the season (six more than any other FBS passer) with zero interceptions in 204 attempts. Through five games, Smith's completion percentage (81.4) and efficiency rating (202.4) are both on pace to obliterate NCAA records. His top receivers, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin, currently rank No. 1 and No. 2 nationally in touchdown receptions. There may be a defense out there with the talent and chops to do something about all that, but despite what the statistics say on paper at the moment, there's no reason to believe that defense resides at Texas Tech.

TCU (+8.5) at Baylor (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FSN)

After eight solid months of injury and attrition at TCU, the absence of quarterback Casey Pachall turned out to be the anvil that broke the camel's back. In Pachall's place, redshirt freshman Trevone Boykin served up three interceptions in the loss to Iowa State, accompanied by a pair of fumbles by freshman running back B.J. Catalon, that sent more than just the nation's longest winning streak up in smoke. With Pachall now out for the year, there's legitimate concern about the Frogs' ability to keep pace against a gauntlet of outrageous Big 12 offenses down the stretch, beginning with Saturday's trip to Waco.

Last year, Baylor stunned TCU by hanging 50 points and 564 yards of total offense on the Frogs in the first game of the season, the opening salvo of Robert Griffin's impossible run to the Heisman Trophy. Incredibly, through four games, the post-RGIII Bears are on pace to obliterate all of last year's marks on the arm of senior Nick Florence, and were last seen combining with West Virginia to produce one of the most turbo-charged offensive box scores in the history of the sport. If TCU's defense succeeds in holding them to even half their output in that game, does it have enough offense left to top it?

No. 11 USC (-12.5) at Washington (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, Fox)

Washington under Steve Sarkisian is one of those teams that appears capable of just about anything on a weekly basis, on either end of the spectrum. Seemingly this depends as much on where the Huskies are playing as who: in three-and-a-half years under Sarkisian, Washington is an impressive 16-6 in Seattle, including nine wins in its last ten, the most recent of which was a come-from-behind, 17-13 upset over Stanford on Sept. 27 –- less than two weeks after the Cardinal shocked USC in Palo Alto. On either side of that triumph, though, U-Dub has been thoroughly trounced in road trips to LSU and Oregon.

Meanwhile, USC is just trying to find a rhythm. Last week, the Trojans rallied from a disastrous start at Utah –- a pair of botched snaps put them in a quick, 14-0 hole barely three minutes into the game –- to outscore the Utes 38-7 over the next 56 minutes. Predictably, a certain segment of USC fans anxious for a return to the Reggie Bush/Matt Leinart-era reign of terror have been frustrated with what they see as overly conservative play-calling given the available firepower. But the mere threat that this offense presents counts for a lot. Unlike Stanford, which ran into a wall once it was clear that its receivers could not challenge Washington downfield, USC's dual deep threats, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, will keep the Huskies living in fear all afternoon, and yielding plenty of room to run underneath.

No. 3 South Carolina (+3) at No. 9 LSU (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

South Carolina has had its share of upsets over the years, but last week's primetime romp over Georgia was the moment Carolina has been waiting for during the last two decades. For the first time since arriving in the SEC in 1992, the Gamecocks are 6-0, ranked in the top five nationally, and (when healthy) fully pass the eyeball test athletically against the league's elite. Now, for their next trick, it's time to prove it on the road: In the same span, South Carolina is 0-22 against top-ten opponents outside of Columbia.

The end of that streak seems more plausible now than it did a week ago, before LSU's offense rolled over and died in an all-too-familiar, 14-6 flop at Florida that magnified every nagging question about the Tigers' ability to score points against blue-chip competition. But there are still no doubts about the LSU defense, which is back in its usual perch among the national elite, and there is a heightened sense of urgency after last week's loss in Gainesville. The Tigers still have everything to play for -– SEC and BCS championships included -– and no more mulligans to give.

Tennessee (+2.5) at No. 19 Mississippi State (Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

While the rest of the SEC does the dog-eat-dog thing, Mississippi State continues to lie quietly, patiently in wait. The Bulldogs may be the most mysterious 5-0 team in the country: they've yet to beat a team with a winning record, and with the exception of a solid second half against Auburn back in Week 2, haven't looked especially dominant in the process. (And Auburn, as it turns out, is objectively terrible.) The best thing you can say about them statistically is that they're taking care of the ball. If they hold serve against Tennessee, though, at home, they're almost certain to head into Alabama in two weeks at 7-0, with a legitimate chance at ten regular-season wins for the first time in school history.

Tennessee is in the exact opposite situation: with losses to Florida and Georgia already on the books, a loss in Starkville –- with Alabama and South Carolina looming over the next two weeks -– all but guarantees an 0-5 start in SEC play, and reduces the margin of error in November to zero if Derek Dooley is going to keep his job in 2013.

No. 22 Texas A&M (-7.5) at No. 23 Louisiana Tech (Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

No one outside of the Texas A&M or Louisiana Tech fan bases would have paid the slightest attention to the Aggies' scheduled trip to Shreveport back on Sept. 1, which just goes to show how quickly assumptions can change. Since that game was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac, Louisiana Tech has notched road wins over Illinois and Virginia, moved to 5-0 for the first time since 1975, and suddenly finds itself as the last, best hope for the "Have Not" conferences to crash one of the big-money BCS bowls at season's end. (The only other undefeated team outside of the major leagues is Ohio University in the MAC, which does not have nearly the non-conference juice that Louisiana Tech has –- or will have, if it upsets the Aggies –- despite the Bobcats' opening day triumph at Penn State.) Of course, there's plenty of interest in that: A Tech loss Saturday would instantly cost the five non-BCS conferences somewhere in the neighborhood of $13 million from the total BCS pie, and cost the WAC an additional $8 million.

A&M is not only the tallest hurdle in the Bulldogs' path, but also the last one before they hit the remainder bin that is the WAC schedule, featuring Idaho, New Mexico State, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Utah State, and San Jose State. Barring a sudden, massive improvement on defense (Tech is giving up more than 35 points on 531 yards per game, easily one of the most generous yields in the nation on both counts, due in part to a healthy turnover margin) the stretch run will play out in the obscurity it deserves.

Picks

Posted by: Matt Hinton on 12 Oct 2012

6 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2012, 8:12am by bucko