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Broncos at Patriots: Week 9 Preview

Brady-Manning XVI: the biggest game in the AFC this year. Denver has juggernaut potential as a complete team, but the Patriots have the crucial home-field advantage in Week 9.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 8 DVOA Ratings

Five teams in the NFL are 6-1 or 6-2. One of those teams, Denver, ranks among the best teams we've ever tracked. None of the other four teams even rank in the DVOA top ten right now. Why not?

133 comments, Last Comment at 4:03pm by Pat

Oct 28, 2014 06:40pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Osemele's Breakout Season

Ben Muth says that Baltimore's third-year guard Kelechi Osemele might be the NFL's next great interior lineman.

8 comments, Last Comment at 12:28pm by atworkforu

Oct 30, 2014 10:11am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 8 Quick Reads

All hail Ben Roethlisberger, owner of the greatest quarterbacking day of the last 25 years (unless you count playoffs).

87 comments, Last Comment at 30 Oct 2014, 4:19pm by commissionerleaf

Oct 27, 2014 08:44pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Justin Houston and Emmanuel Sanders

Cian Fahey breaks down one of the league's best defensive players, and the receiver who has made Denver even more dangerous.

21 comments, Last Comment at 3:40pm by knucklebear

Oct 30, 2014 12:44pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 8

Why are Mark Ingram and the Saints so much better in prime time? And why were seemingly all quarterbacks on Sunday either very, very good or very, very bad?

139 comments, Last Comment at 29 Oct 2014, 11:30am by Steve in WI

Oct 27, 2014 09:30am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 9: USC Holds Steady

While most of the nation is concerned about one-loss teams, Brian Fremeau explains why the USC Trojans are the nation's best three-loss team.

0 comments

Oct 29, 2014 01:23pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Reckoning in the Valley

Another undefeated team fell, expanding the list of one-loss teams and making things even more difficult for the Playoff Selection Committee.

4 comments, Last Comment at 28 Oct 2014, 2:28pm by Pat

Oct 27, 2014 06:02pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: Early Playoff Elimination Round

TCU-West Virginia and Auburn-Ole Miss might as well be early playoff elimination rounds, with the losers likely knocked out of playoff contention.

0 comments

Oct 30, 2014 05:33pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: Honing in

Bill Connelly again looks at which college football teams the F/+ ratings are sure about, and which teams remain a mystery (led by Appalachian State).

0 comments

Oct 24, 2014 03:52pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Steelers Over Colts

Pittsburgh got the win and Ben Roethlisberger got the numbers, but Andrew Healy says that Andrew Luck was the best player on the field.

14 comments, Last Comment at 29 Oct 2014, 1:13pm by Mash Wilson

Oct 28, 2014 12:57pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: October 31, 2014

This week: Coaches past and present talk Peyton, chemistry, stakes, trades, and lousy defenses. Oh, and selfies.

2 comments, Last Comment at 4:22pm by Bright Blue Shorts

Oct 31, 2014 11:33am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Goatee No-tee

Mike and Tom wonder why certain NFL teams are run by '50s Dad and commemorate the Falcons' epic meltdown.

20 comments, Last Comment at 12:48am by The Hypno-Toad

Oct 29, 2014 01:29pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Kansas State WR Tyler Lockett

The Wildcats receiver isn't the best athlete you'll ever see, but Matt Waldman says he could be an effective pro with small improvements in his technique.

0 comments

Oct 25, 2014 12:48pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1DEN97.9% 1DEN30.3% 1OAK43.2%
2IND88.8% 2BAL9.5% 2TB23.0%
3DET85.3% 3DAL7.2% 3JAC15.0%
4ARI78.2% 4GB7.0% 4NYJ13.9%
5DAL78.1% 5DET6.9% 5STL2.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 8

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN47.6% 1DEN47.7%
2BAL26.0% 2BAL26.1%
3SEA18.8% 3SEA18.2%
4KC15.1% 4KC15.2%
5GB15.0% 5GB14.8%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 8

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN31.8% 1DEN31.9%
2NO18.0% 2NO18.0%
3SD16.6% 3SD16.7%
4PIT15.9% 4PIT16.0%
5GB14.9% 5GB14.8%
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2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DET-23.6% 1DET-23.7%
2DEN-17.5% 2DEN-17.6%
3BUF-13.7% 3BUF-13.8%
4MIA-11.9% 4MIA-11.9%
5BAL-10.7% 5BAL-10.9%
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2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI10.1% 1PHI10.1%
2BUF6.1% 2BUF6.0%
3IND4.9% 3IND5.0%
4NE4.9% 4NE5.0%
5KC4.8% 5KC4.9%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN888 1P.ManningDEN41.3%
2P.RiversSD798 2P.RiversSD33.3%
3A.LuckIND785 3A.LuckIND20.9%
4T.BradyNE631 4A.RodgersGB20.8%
5B.RoethlisbergerPIT622 5T.BradyNE20.7%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL255 1J.McKinnonMIN21.8% 1A.BradshawIND172
2A.FosterHOU127 2D.MurrayDAL21.5% 2M.ForteCHI159
3M.LynchSEA122 3R.JenningsNYG20.8% 3L.BellPIT130
4R.JenningsNYG119 4M.LynchSEA18.8% 4P.ThomasNO70
5C.IvoryNYJ98 5D.RobinsonJAC14.5% 5R.HeluWAS68
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.CobbGB284 1R.CobbGB53.3%
2T.Y.HiltonIND282 2M.FloydSD48.9%
3A.BrownPIT258 3S.JohnsonSF41.3%
4E.SandersDEN236 4T.WilliamsDAL39.5%
5J.NelsonGB201 5E.SandersDEN35.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.GatesSD120 1T.WrightNE40.9%
2J.ThomasDEN118 2L.GreenSD35.9%
3R.GronkowskiNE113 3D.AllenIND33.6%
4T.KelceKC100 4J.ThomasDEN33.5%
5D.AllenIND97 5T.KelceKC32.3%
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Most Recent Articles

31 Oct 2014, 12:34pm by Scott Kacsmar

Broncos at Patriots: Week 9 Preview

Brady-Manning XVI: the biggest game in the AFC this year. Denver has juggernaut potential as a complete team, but the Patriots have the crucial home-field advantage in Week 9.

» More...

17 comments, Last at 5:07pm by theslothook

31 Oct 2014, 11:33am by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: October 31, 2014

This week: Coaches past and present talk Peyton, chemistry, stakes, trades, and lousy defenses. Oh, and selfies.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 4:22pm by Bright Blue Shorts

30 Oct 2014, 05:33pm by Chad Peltier

SDA: Early Playoff Elimination Round

TCU-West Virginia and Auburn-Ole Miss might as well be early playoff elimination rounds, with the losers likely knocked out of playoff contention.

» More...

0 comments

30 Oct 2014, 12:44pm by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Justin Houston and Emmanuel Sanders

Cian Fahey breaks down one of the league's best defensive players, and the receiver who has made Denver even more dangerous.

» More...

21 comments, Last at 3:40pm by knucklebear

30 Oct 2014, 10:11am by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Osemele's Breakout Season

Ben Muth says that Baltimore's third-year guard Kelechi Osemele might be the NFL's next great interior lineman.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 12:28pm by atworkforu

29 Oct 2014, 01:29pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball: Goatee No-tee

Mike and Tom wonder why certain NFL teams are run by '50s Dad and commemorate the Falcons' epic meltdown.

» More...

20 comments, Last at 12:48am by The Hypno-Toad

29 Oct 2014, 01:23pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Week 9: USC Holds Steady

While most of the nation is concerned about one-loss teams, Brian Fremeau explains why the USC Trojans are the nation's best three-loss team.

» More...

0 comments

29 Oct 2014, 11:17am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Week 9 Fantasy Matchups

Some of our favorite Week 9 matchups for salary-cap leagues include Colin Kaepernick, Mark Ingram, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Wallace. Rob Gronkowski returns to the elite table of tight ends and you might want to roll with Emmanuel Sanders if Demaryius Thomas is going to be stuck on Revis Island.

» More...

0 comments

29 Oct 2014, 05:47am by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: One-Loss Contenders

Every one-loss power conference team is still in contention for the College Football Playoff. But not every one-loss team is particularly likely to run the table from here out.

» More...

0 comments

28 Oct 2014, 06:40pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 8 DVOA Ratings

Five teams in the NFL are 6-1 or 6-2. One of those teams, Denver, ranks among the best teams we've ever tracked. None of the other four teams even rank in the DVOA top ten right now. Why not?

» More...

133 comments, Last at 4:03pm by Pat

28 Oct 2014, 02:41pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Week 8

Can we move the NFC South to London? Also: Big Ben's big day, Luck's safety, Baltimore deja vu, aggressive Arians and what can former Browns do for you on Monday Night Football?

» More...

5 comments, Last at 28 Oct 2014, 6:19pm by jonnyblazin

28 Oct 2014, 12:57pm by Andrew Healy

Any Given Sunday: Steelers Over Colts

Pittsburgh got the win and Ben Roethlisberger got the numbers, but Andrew Healy says that Andrew Luck was the best player on the field.

» More...

14 comments, Last at 29 Oct 2014, 1:13pm by Mash Wilson

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