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Scramble: 2015 AFC/NFC West Over/Unders

Mike and Tom review the have-and-have-not western divisions, try to say nice things about the Raiders (again), and wonder how we arrived in a world where the St. Louis Rams are a measuring stick for anyone.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.

31 comments, Last Comment at 22 Aug 2015, 5:59am by KimJen

Apr 27, 2015 11:35am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

79 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:15pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: 2015 Season Preview

Resident offensive line expert Ben Muth previews the three teams on which he'll be focusing this season: Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland.

31 comments, Last Comment at 02 Sep 2015, 12:57pm by dryheat

Aug 31, 2015 03:19pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLIX Quick Reads

By FO's advanced numbers, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIX was an easy choice -- even though the losing team actually ended up with a higher DVOA rating.

58 comments, Last Comment at 04 Feb 2015, 7:26pm by herewegobrowniesherewego

Feb 02, 2015 10:44am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Teddy Bridgewater

What did the Vikings quarterback do well in his rookie season, and how high is his ceiling?

7 comments, Last Comment at 3:11pm by jtr

Sep 02, 2015 01:12pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles: 2015 NFL Draft Day Two

The FO staff discusses some of the most surprising moves of the second and third rounds, including Carolina's trade up for Devin Funchess.

27 comments, Last Comment at 06 May 2015, 6:51pm by chemical burn

May 02, 2015 02:22pm GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI 2015 Primer: The 90th Percentile

Just how often do championship teams in college football play at a championship level?

0 comments

Sep 02, 2015 12:27pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: August 2015

As preseason football mercifully winds down, voices around the league discuss injuries, hindquarters, fall guys, and body-shaming.

9 comments, Last Comment at 01 Sep 2015, 11:03pm by LionInAZ

Aug 28, 2015 09:31pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble: 2015 AFC/NFC West Over/Unders

Mike and Tom review the have-and-have-not western divisions, try to say nice things about the Raiders (again), and wonder how we arrived in a world where the St. Louis Rams are a measuring stick for anyone.

0 comments

Sep 03, 2015 12:52pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50 (from Football Outsiders Almanac 2015)
1SEA 14.8%6 STL3.7% 11SD 3.3%
2 NE 12.4% 7 BAL 3.7% 12 DAL 3.1%
3DEN 8.3%8 CIN3.5% 13PIT 3.1%
4GB 8.0%9 MIN3.4% 14ATL 3.0%
5IND 4.6%10 PHI3.4% 15NO 2.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!Based on rosters as of July 15

2015 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

2015 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

2015 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

2015 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,572 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,564 2D.AndersonCAR27.8%
3P.ManningDEN1,412 3T.RomoDAL27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,225 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT26.8%
5T.RomoDAL1,187 5P.ManningDEN23.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

RUNNING BACKS 2015

RB stats will be updated beginning after Week 1.

WIDE RECEIVERS 2015

WR stats will be updated beginning after Week 1.

TIGHT ENDS 2015

TE stats will be updated beginning after Week 1.

Most Recent Articles

03 Sep 2015, 12:52pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble: 2015 AFC/NFC West Over/Unders

Mike and Tom review the have-and-have-not western divisions, try to say nice things about the Raiders (again), and wonder how we arrived in a world where the St. Louis Rams are a measuring stick for anyone.

» More...

0 comments

02 Sep 2015, 01:12pm by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Teddy Bridgewater

What did the Vikings quarterback do well in his rookie season, and how high is his ceiling?

» More...

7 comments, Last at 3:11pm by jtr

02 Sep 2015, 12:27pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI 2015 Primer: The 90th Percentile

Just how often do championship teams in college football play at a championship level?

» More...

0 comments

02 Sep 2015, 12:23pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Overrated and Underrated in ESPN's Top 100

Each year that ESPN has done its #NFLRANK list of the top 100 players in the NFL, Football Outsiders has provided an audit that lists players we think are overrated and underrated on that list. Here's our audit for 2015, starting with the high probability that Adrian Peterson is no longer the top running back in the game. Also overrated: Joe Haden and Joe Staley. Underrated: Andrew Whitworth, Josh Sitton, and Connor Barwin.

» More...

0 comments

31 Aug 2015, 09:50pm by Andrew Healy

Andrew Healy's Futures and Prop Bet Extravaganza

For entertainment purposes only, Andrew Healy makes imaginary wagers with pretend money on real football.

» More...

15 comments, Last at 12:36am by FanZed

31 Aug 2015, 03:19pm by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: 2015 Season Preview

Resident offensive line expert Ben Muth previews the three teams on which he'll be focusing this season: Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland.

» More...

31 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2015, 12:57pm by dryheat

28 Aug 2015, 09:31pm by Rory Hickey

The Month In Quotes: August 2015

As preseason football mercifully winds down, voices around the league discuss injuries, hindquarters, fall guys, and body-shaming.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2015, 11:03pm by LionInAZ

28 Aug 2015, 02:17pm by Scott Kacsmar

Catch Radius: Odell Beckham Has Company

Odell Beckham had the catch of the year, but he wasn't the only rookie star in 2014. We look at the catch radii for Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, and Mike Evans.

» More...

0 comments

27 Aug 2015, 04:15pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble: 2015 South Over/Unders

Mike and Tom finally get a shot at the southern divisions and wade through the fetid morass of mediocrity. Look out for Hott Takez!

» More...

32 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2015, 7:31pm by panthersnbraves

27 Aug 2015, 09:28am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: 2015 Rankings for Under-25 Talent

Our annual rankings for NFL teams' under-25 talent has the Cowboys on top thanks to a well-executed plan for the offensive line. The Seahawks again rank 32nd, as their last few young stars just turned 25.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 27 Aug 2015, 3:56pm by Karl Cuba

26 Aug 2015, 01:00pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Top 25 Prospects 2015

Here's the ESPN Insider version of our Top 25 Prospects list from Football Outsiders Almanac 2015. Once again, this is our annual list of the top prospects among later-drafted and undrafted players who aren't rookies anymore, but are still young with potential to blossom and become important pieces on their teams. Pittsburgh's Martavis Bryant is this year's No. 1.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 27 Aug 2015, 4:37pm by Jerry

26 Aug 2015, 11:09am by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Ryan Fitzpatrick

By most numbers, Fitzpatrick had the best year of his career in 2014. Can he maintain that level with the Jets this fall?

» More...

20 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2015, 8:16am by bubqr

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