Bill Connelly says hello to the 2014 college football season by giving the F/+ projections some last-second tweaks.
15 Dec 2013
by Mike Ridley
This week, Any Given Sunday gets a special Thursday night edition to go over the Broncos' improbable 27-20 loss to San Diego. Did San Diego discover the blueprint to shutting down the explosive Broncos attack, or was this performance merely a fluke?
Philip Rivers led the 6-7 Chargers to a victory Thursday night despite being 10.5-point underdogs. While Denver was far from a lock to cover the spread, they were the seen as the second-most likely team to come away with a victory, according to Football Outsiders’ premium picks. Instead, San Diego came into Sports Authority Field and limited the Broncos offense to their lowest point total of the season.
San Diego may have held Peyton Manning and the Broncos to 20 points, but they were still below average on defense according to VOA.
|No Ordinary Offense|
|Team||Off. VOA||Def. VOA||Special Teams VOA||Total VOA|
But when we factor in our opponent adjustments, our numbers become drastically different.
|Team||Off. DVOA||Def. DVOA||Special Teams DVOA||Total DVOA|
Denver’s offensive DVOA took such a deep hit due to San Diego’s poor defensive record. The Chargers entered this week with the league’s worst defense at 21.9% DVOA. Conversely, when Denver's offensive brilliance is taken into consideration, the Chargers receive a hefty boost to their defensive DVOA.
Amazingly, this wasn’t the Broncos' worst offensive performance of the year by DVOA. In all three of their losses this year, the Broncos have failed to produce a positive DVOA on offense. Their loss in Indianapolis was their worst performance, coming away with an offensive DVOA of -7.6%, slightly worse than the -2.9% DVOA they had against New England.
This was easily the Chargers best performance on defense when opponent adjustments are included. It was only the second time this season that San Diego has been above average on defense; the other being a Week 6 win over the Colts when they held Indianapolis to nine points and came away with a -8.3% DVOA.
When the Broncos started off the season at 6-0 and appeared to be world-beaters, they were playing at a historic level on third downs. Manning’s offense converted 58.9 percent of their third downs, including 17 of 33 on third-and-7 or longer. This gave them an offensive DVOA of 88.9% in third-down situations, easily the best in the league.
That number has dropped dramatically in the eight games that followed. In Weeks 7-15, the Broncos’ third-down DVOA is down to 26.5%, fifth in the league. Through last Sunday, their third-down conversion rate had dropped to 43.9 percent despite their average distance to go remaining nearly identical (6.5 yards and 6.2 yards, respectively). The biggest drop-off has come in the third-and-long situations that Denver excelled at early on, converting on just seven of 37 attempts (18.9 percent) when there are seven or more yards to go.
On Thursday, third downs were an issue again. The Broncos were just two of nine on third downs, despite encountering fairly reasonable distances. They had only two plays of third-and-7 or longer all game, both of which they failed to convert. Even on manageable third-and-6 situations, the Broncos went 0-for-4, with Manning’s passes falling incomplete each time.
The biggest question coming out of Thursday night was whether others can emulate the defensive game plan San Diego used or if it was simply an off performance by Denver. The answer is probably a little of both.
San Diego excelled at limiting the Denver receivers after the catch. Demaryius Thomas, who leads the league in yards after the catch, was limited to just 18 yards on his four receptions. Julius Thomas was also held to 18 yards after the catch to add to his 314 YAC on the season (fourth among tight ends), and Eric Decker was limited to five such yards on his two catches. By not allowing the Broncos’ receivers to gain large chunks of yardage after the catch, they were able to hold Manning to his second-lowest yardage total of the season.
The other factor that came into play was the absence of Wes Welker. With Welker out with a concussion, the Broncos moved Decker into the slot position, something he had only done on about a quarter of his routes coming into the game. The absence also pushed Andre Caldwell up to third in the depth chart, essentially making two out of the three receivers new. Caldwell did lead the Broncos in every receiving category, but it would be a stretch to say that he presents the same challenges as Welker, especially in those third-and-6 situations the Broncos failed at.
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