19 Aug 2004, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz
For months now, we've been asked the same question: "How can DVOA rate the Green Bay defense as better than the Green Bay offense?" For months now, we've promised an explanation. Now, in an article originally written for Brassey's Pro Football Forecast 2004, we deliver. Read this article to discover why Green Bay is one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 6.
19 Aug 2004, 12:41pm by Al & Aaron
Aaron and Al finish their rundown of this year's over-under lines, providing a preview of the eight best teams in the NFC. Can Vick bring the Falcons back to the playoffs? Is there a line-item in the Cowboys budget for "Depends"? Al has a surprising pick has best team in the NFC, and an even more surprising pick for a team headed to the basement. Aaron revisits Tampa's strange 2003. Plus, in a new Jason Beattie cartoon, ESPN finds a reporter who can cover the Quincy Carter story.
18 Aug 2004, 10:55am by Michael David Smith
Ted Washington is big. But does that mean he'll leave a huge hole now that he's left the Patriots? Not necessarily. Michael David Smith kept a close eye on Washington during the Super Bowl and his findings might surprise you. It's the premiere of our new feature, Every Play Counts.
16 Aug 2004, 04:58am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA and DPAR measure the best running backs in terms of value, but what about consistency? Some running backs are always putting their teams in the position to grab another first down, and others are "home run hitters" that mix highlight-reel runs with lots of 2-3 yard carries. Football Outsiders has a new stat that measures how often a running back has success. Originally called "Running Back Batting Average," it is now called "Running Back Success Rate."
16 Aug 2004, 02:34am by Russell Levine
Russell Levine concludes his trip through the NCAA pre-season top 25. Which coaches would benefit the most from jumping to the NFL next season? Can Kansas State actually produce a Heisman winner? Can Auburn ride a Cadillac to an SEC title? Most importantly, can we get odds on the number of weeks before columnists begin whining on Utah being left out of the BCS?
13 Aug 2004, 04:47am by Aaron Schatz
Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers started the year 2-6 as midnight struck and turned Tommy Maddox's comeback back into a pumpkin. And yet, our team ratings ranked the Steelers at #16 at the season's midpoint, and still ranked them at #16 after the season ended. Why do so many people think the Steelers crashed and burned, when in reality they were an average team? A lesson in the distortive power of strength of schedule, and why Maddox wasn't the main reason the Steelers went 6-10. Plus, important information for those who purchased, or plan on purchasing, our book Brassey's Pro Football Forecast.
12 Aug 2004, 09:58am by Aaron Schatz
Saying that the San Francisco 49ers are going to look different this year is a bit like saying that Tom Cruise looked different by the end of Vanilla Sky. Has a team ever turned over so many skill positions in one offseason? Actually, the answer is yes, but never in quite the same way. Aaron and Russell look back into the NFL's past to see if we can discern the 49ers' future.
11 Aug 2004, 01:18pm by Michael David Smith
One way to analyze how much talent each team added in the offseason is to see how many games were started last season by their projected starters for this season. The resulting numbers provide more support for that trendy Jacksonville pick along with hope for a Tampa rebound and a Washington playoff run. Michael David Smith has commentary.
11 Aug 2004, 04:52am by Jason Beattie
With the season only weeks away it's time to start putting together your fantasy cheatsheets. Who will be this year's top pick: Emmitt Smith, Eddie George, Kyle Boller, or the legendary Neil Rackers? What, those people aren't on the top of your draft list? Obviously, you aren't playing our special brand of fantasy football that will have you rooting for missed extra points and goal line carries by some running back you don't own.