Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Aug 2004, 02:02am by Al & Ian

Scramble for the Ball: Scramble Survivor Draft

Need fantasy football advice? Ian and Al to the rescue, as they present their annual Scramble Survivor Draft, drafting six teams apiece and giving their opinions on which players are set for good seasons, and which sleepers will just stay asleep. This year, we promise not to suggest you draft anyone who, for example, has retired. (cue bong hit sound fx)

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25 Aug 2004, 02:38am by Guest

Guest Column: Cornerback Coverage Ratings

Deion Sanders was often criticized for his inability and/or reluctance to make tackles in run support. But like all great cover corners, he wasn't paid to help stop opposing running backs. His job was to keep the other team from throwing to his man, and to deflect or intercept the pass when they dared to challenge him. With this in mind, Michael G. Knight has devised a new statistic that tries to judge a cornerback on more than what he does after his receiver has caught a pass.

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23 Aug 2004, 01:34pm by Russell Levine

Confessions of a Football Junkie: College Couch Potato Guide

Our resident college football expert delivers his guide to the must-see games of the season (as well as the can-miss games of the season). Now even the most NFL-centered, college-clueless football fan (say, Aaron) will know which games are worth watching on Saturdays.

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23 Aug 2004, 12:33pm by Al Bogdan

Can Atlanta Blame 2003's Defensive Problems on Vick's Injury?

The general expectation this season is that the Michael Vick-led Atlanta Falcons will rebound from a terrible 2003. But what really caused the terrible season was the collapse of the Atlanta defense. Is it possible that this defensive decline was connected to Vick's injury, giving Falcon fans hope for 2004? Al asks the question and gets an answer that will surprise you. Actually, it probably won't.

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19 Aug 2004, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz

Packer Defense vs. Packer Offense

For months now, we've been asked the same question: "How can DVOA rate the Green Bay defense as better than the Green Bay offense?" For months now, we've promised an explanation. Now, in an article originally written for Brassey's Pro Football Forecast 2004, we deliver. Read this article to discover why Green Bay is one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 6.

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19 Aug 2004, 12:41pm by Al & Aaron

Scramble for the Ball: 2004 NFC Over-Unders, Part II

Aaron and Al finish their rundown of this year's over-under lines, providing a preview of the eight best teams in the NFC. Can Vick bring the Falcons back to the playoffs? Is there a line-item in the Cowboys budget for "Depends"? Al has a surprising pick has best team in the NFC, and an even more surprising pick for a team headed to the basement. Aaron revisits Tampa's strange 2003. Plus, in a new Jason Beattie cartoon, ESPN finds a reporter who can cover the Quincy Carter story.

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18 Aug 2004, 10:55am by Michael David Smith

Every Play Counts: Ted Washington's Super Bowl

Ted Washington is big. But does that mean he'll leave a huge hole now that he's left the Patriots? Not necessarily. Michael David Smith kept a close eye on Washington during the Super Bowl and his findings might surprise you. It's the premiere of our new feature, Every Play Counts.

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16 Aug 2004, 04:58am by Aaron Schatz

Introducing Running Back Success Rate

DVOA and DPAR measure the best running backs in terms of value, but what about consistency? Some running backs are always putting their teams in the position to grab another first down, and others are "home run hitters" that mix highlight-reel runs with lots of 2-3 yard carries. Football Outsiders has a new stat that measures how often a running back has success. Originally called "Running Back Batting Average," it is now called "Running Back Success Rate."

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16 Aug 2004, 02:34am by Russell Levine

Confessions of a Football Junkie: Ask the Magic 8-Ball, Part II

Russell Levine concludes his trip through the NCAA pre-season top 25. Which coaches would benefit the most from jumping to the NFL next season? Can Kansas State actually produce a Heisman winner? Can Auburn ride a Cadillac to an SEC title? Most importantly, can we get odds on the number of weeks before columnists begin whining on Utah being left out of the BCS?

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13 Aug 2004, 04:47am by Aaron Schatz

Pittsburgh of Despair

Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers started the year 2-6 as midnight struck and turned Tommy Maddox's comeback back into a pumpkin. And yet, our team ratings ranked the Steelers at #16 at the season's midpoint, and still ranked them at #16 after the season ended. Why do so many people think the Steelers crashed and burned, when in reality they were an average team? A lesson in the distortive power of strength of schedule, and why Maddox wasn't the main reason the Steelers went 6-10. Plus, important information for those who purchased, or plan on purchasing, our book Brassey's Pro Football Forecast.

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