Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Jun 2004, 10:43am by Guest

Guest Column: And the Winner Is...

First he poured through the numbers to determine the NFL's worst franchise of all time. Now Mark Hutson turns things around to determine the best franchise of all time. Will it be the Packers? The Cowboys? How about the Pride of Irwindale?

» More...

comments

24 May 2004, 11:53am by Michael David Smith

Similarity Scores

Just the start of another attempt to translate a classic baseball analysis tool into the world of the NFL.

» More...

comments

18 May 2004, 01:39pm by Aaron Schatz

Rock Cartwright vs. DeShaun Foster

One running back ran for 429 yards on 113 carries. The other running back ran for 410 yards on 107 carries. So how come the player often described as a star of the future is at the bottom of our DVOA ratings, while the third-string ex-fullback is listed as above average? A trip inside the world of DVOA...

» More...

comments

13 May 2004, 02:44am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA Gets Another Upgrade

In our neverending battle to improve our statistics, we present a new iteration of our DVOA formula that correlates even better with wins, scoring, and future performance.

» More...

comments

11 May 2004, 12:03pm by Guest

Guest Column: And the Loser Is...

Which is the worst NFL team of all time? The Bengals? Falcons? How about the Saints or Bucs? Mark Huston sorts through history to determine the NFL's most suffering fans.

» More...

comments

10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

Even More Complete Failures

And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.

» More...

comments

07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

» More...

comments

03 May 2004, 11:25am by Guest

Guest Column: Capologist for a Day

"You got your unamortized bonus in my peanut butter!... You got your peanut butter in my unamortized bonus!" Instead of just starting an offseason discussion thread on whether the cap rules need to be changed, we figured we would kick off such a discussion with an article that explained the basics of the salary cap. And it just so happens that Chris Miraglia wrote such an article.

» More...

comments

03 May 2004, 09:14am by

Discussion-Worthy Coaching Decisions from 2003

In this article reprinted from footballcommentary.com, William Krasker uses probability theory and his Dynamic Programming Model to analyze six controversial coaching moves of last season. Should the Packers have kicked a field goal with two minutes left in the first half of the playoff game with the Eagles, instead of going for the touchdown? In their MNF comeback against Tampa, should Indianapolis have tried any two-point conversions? When you need 10 at the end of a game, do you go for the touchdown or the field goal first?

» More...

comments

28 Apr 2004, 02:32am by Aaron Schatz

You Say Tomato, I Say Future Pro Bowler

At this point, we all know that NFL draft report cards are a bit silly, and that you can't truly judge a draft until those players have been in the league for a couple of years. So instead of a report card, Aaron presents a report about report cards. He's examined eight different sets of draft grades to find out which teams caused the most disagreement among the pundits.

» More...

comments