Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

Even More Complete Failures

And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.

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07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

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03 May 2004, 11:25am by Guest

Guest Column: Capologist for a Day

"You got your unamortized bonus in my peanut butter!... You got your peanut butter in my unamortized bonus!" Instead of just starting an offseason discussion thread on whether the cap rules need to be changed, we figured we would kick off such a discussion with an article that explained the basics of the salary cap. And it just so happens that Chris Miraglia wrote such an article.

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03 May 2004, 09:14am by

Discussion-Worthy Coaching Decisions from 2003

In this article reprinted from footballcommentary.com, William Krasker uses probability theory and his Dynamic Programming Model to analyze six controversial coaching moves of last season. Should the Packers have kicked a field goal with two minutes left in the first half of the playoff game with the Eagles, instead of going for the touchdown? In their MNF comeback against Tampa, should Indianapolis have tried any two-point conversions? When you need 10 at the end of a game, do you go for the touchdown or the field goal first?

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28 Apr 2004, 02:32am by Aaron Schatz

You Say Tomato, I Say Future Pro Bowler

At this point, we all know that NFL draft report cards are a bit silly, and that you can't truly judge a draft until those players have been in the league for a couple of years. So instead of a report card, Aaron presents a report about report cards. He's examined eight different sets of draft grades to find out which teams caused the most disagreement among the pundits.

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27 Apr 2004, 12:53pm by admin

TMQ Draft Article Discussion Thread

Yes, it's the return of two Football Outsiders favorites: The "unofficial official" TMQ discussion thread, and the Jason Beattie comic strip of the week.

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26 Apr 2004, 06:03am by Aaron Schatz

Pass Defense: Tight Ends, Backs, and Slot Receivers

Two weeks ago, we looked at how defenses did against number one receivers compared to number two receivers. Here's part two of that article, examining how defenses fared in 2003 against the opposition's other receivers. Discover the strange magic of the Indianapolis nickel package, San Diego's weapon against the Chiefs, and the secret Achilles heel of the New England pass defense.

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26 Apr 2004, 02:29am by Michael David Smith

Draft Holes That Weren't Filled

You hear a lot after the draft about which players will fill holes on their new teams. What about the holes that went unfilled? Michael David Smith wonders who is playing cornerback in Dallas and Arizona, not to mention offensive line in Cleveland. Plus, the winner of our mock draft contest, and how he did against the professionals.

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22 Apr 2004, 01:45pm by admin

Guest Column: Turnovers and the Unpredictability of Defense

Winning the turnover battle, as the media points out roughly every twelve seconds, is the key to winning football games. But what does this really mean? How important are turnovers and how much control do teams have over them? Does winning the turnover battle this week mean you will win it again next year? Jim Armstrong investigates in an enlightening guest column.

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20 Apr 2004, 02:34am by admin

Who Makes Draft Trades and Why

Michael David Smith looks at draft-day trades, and what they tell us about team strategies, executive longevity, and who your friends are.

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