Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Nov 2016

Audibles at the Line: Week 11

compiled by Andrew Potter

Each Sunday, the FO staff sends around emails about the games that each of us are watching. We share information about the games that the rest of the group might not be watching, ask questions, and keep everyone else informed about which games they might want to tune into (if they can).

On Monday, we compile a digest of those e-mails and produce this feature. By its nature, it can be disjointed and dissimilar to the other articles on the site.

While these emails are generally written with Audibles in mind, they do not represent a standard review of all the games each week. That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. (If you are a Steelers or Patriots fan, you are probably in luck; if you are a Bills fan, not so much.) We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game.

Buffalo Bills 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 12

Bryan Knowles: Terrible start for the Bengals -- on the second play from scrimmage, A.J. Green is put on the cart. Something with his right leg or hip. Pretty much the last thing the Bengals needed today.

Rob Weintraub: Green was carted off with a hammy. If this was Ben Roethlisberger he'd miss a game maybe two. Green undoubtedly is lost for the season, because Bengals.

Deplorable effort all the way around. Hard to comprehend this drastic a falloff from a 12-4 team, even with all the offseason departures.

Cincinnati is somehow, at 3-6-1, only 1.5 back of the division lead. But a last-place finish behind the winless Browns is more likely than a division tilt at this stage.

Update from Cincy -- indeed, it appears A.J. Green has a torn hamstring and is done for the year. That should kill any chance at some unneeded late-season wins.

Arizona Cardinals 24 at Minnesota Vikings 30

Cian Fahey: The Vikings offensive tackle problem showed up on the first drive as Sam Bradford's touchdown throw to Kyle Rudolph was wiped out. Bradford followed it up with a connection to Adam Thielen on a perfect back-shoulder throw into the end zone.

Bryan Knowles: Minnesota cut Blair Walsh this week after the extra point misses just became too much to take. Kai Forbath is the new kicker... and he just had an extra point blocked by Justin Bethel.

Minnesota has now missed an extra point in three straight games.

Also, this is getting crazy -- I believe that's six missed extra points in just the first half of the early games this week.

Vince Verhei: Vikings score on a Matt Asiata goal-line plunge that is called short on the field, but a touchdown on a replay review. It was set up by a 29-yard pass interference when the Vikings lined Sam Bradford up at wide receiver and gave him the ball on a reverse, and he lobbed it to Adam Thielen. The ball was badly underthrown, but that worked out for Minnesota because Thielen saw this and threw on the brakes, while Tony Jefferson never saw it and just wiped Thielen out for the penalty. The extra point was blocked, leaving Minnesota up 13-10.

Cardinals responded with a Brittan Golden kickoff return that just crossed over into Minnesota territory. Thanks in part to a couple of defensive holding calls, they get a goal-to-go situation, but then on third down Carson Palmer forces an out route to John Brown, who isn't open, and Xavier Rhodes undercuts the route for an interception and the coast-to-coast 100-yard pick-six and a 20-10 lead.

Cian Fahey: Cardinals-Vikings is a randomly great game. Carson Palmer has been betrayed by his non-Larry Fitzgerald receivers, but had a huge play from Jermaine Gresham of all people to score a touchdown before the end of the half. The Vikings offense has looked good when it has been on the field, except when they have tried to throw the ball deep of course.

Vince Verhei: With about a minute to go in the first half, Jermaine Gresham catches a pass in the middle of Minnesota's zone, then breaks a couple of tackles to dive and just barely crosses the goal line before he is down. The ball pops out of his outstretched hand, but even if he had not been ruled to have scored, it would have been a down-by-contact call to set the Cardinals up with a first-and-inches.

Vikings are left with all three timeouts, and they're cautiously driving for a late score, but when a big sack sets them up in long yardage they wave the white flag and let the half expire. Minnesota's right tackle on the sack had about as bad form as a lineman can have. I'm pretty sure that the offensive lineman is supposed to have his back to the quarterback, not to the pass-rusher, right?

The NFL has not totally banned kickoffs yet, which means Cordarrelle Patterson still has some value. He opens the second half with a 104-yard kickoff return touchdown to put the Vikings up 27-17. That's their second 100-yard non-offensive touchdown in barely three minutes of game time. Meanwhile, the offense has 109 yards, total.

Watching that Patterson touchdown again on replay. It's like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl -- he's got defenders diving to the ground left and right without ever getting close to touching him.

Cian Fahey: Frostee Rucker is having a dominant day as a run-stopping defensive lineman. If he was a pass rusher it'd be like getting three sacks in a game.

Vince Verhei: Vikings' next drive results in a fourth-and-3 at the Arizona 38. They opt to go for it, and it's an incomplete pass when Bradford throws behind Patterson across the middle. I think, with a 10-point lead there, I'd have swallowed my pride and asked my punter to pin Arizona deep, especially with the relative strengths and weaknesses of this Minnesota team.

Cardinals give the ball back to Minnesota on a deep interception on first down, and now the Arizona defense is getting some questionable personal foul calls. Minnesota has used a lot of direct snaps to Jerick McKinnon with Bradford split out wide. The last time, Patrick Peterson lined up on Bradford, and at the snap launched forward and shoved Bradford to the ground. It was a running play, so Bradford was technically a blocker, it seems like Peterson should be allowed to take a blocker out of the play. 

Three plays later, Bradford hits Stefon Diggs on a short crosser for a third-down conversion. Diggs runs all the way to the sideline, where he's trying to break a tackle when Tony Jefferson zooms in and wipes him out, and gets called for unnecessary roughness. I have no idea why -- it was well after the catch, Diggs was fighting like hell to break the tackle, and he hadn't gone out of bounds. If that had been a tight end or a big running back instead of a wide receiver, I don't think it's a foul. 

The drive ends in a field goal and the Vikings are up 30-17. Arizona had the ball three times in the third, and produced minus-2 total yards, two punts, and an interception.

Following yet another Arizona three-and-out (that's zero first downs in four second-half drives for Arizona), Bradford gets hit by Kevin Minter, and his wobbly pass is incomplete over the middle of the field. Everyone stands around for a while, then the Cardinals grab the ball and run it back for what they think is a touchdown, claiming the whistle never blew. But the play is ruled incomplete. Bruce Arians challenges, and though the hit and the pass were close to simultaneous, it's hard to argue that this was not a pass given how far the ball went forward. Cardinals lost the challenge. 

And it doesn't matter, because on the very next snap, Chandler Jones blows by the left tackle for a pretty clear strip-sack, and the Cardinals recover. There was a review, because all turnovers are reviewed, but there was little doubt about that one -- fumble all the way.

Cardinals get two first downs on the drive following the fumble, both on David Johnson receptions, the latter a 4-yard touchdown to make it 30-24.

Vikings respond with a three-and-out, complete with a run for a loss of 4 on second-and-short and yet another close call between a fumble and a pass on third down. Not surprising, but their offensive line has been dominated all day. 

John Brown gets a 32-yard punt return to set Arizona up with good field position, but the Cardinals then move backwards (their own offensive line isn't doing so hot) and punt. There are penalty flags everywhere, and when the smoke clears the Vikings have the ball at their own 8, up six, with just over four minutes to go.

And of course it's another three-and-out, but John Brown makes a big mistake and fails to field the ensuing punt, which takes a big Minnesota roll. It goes down as a 72-yard punt for Jeff Locke, but almost 20 of that came after the bounce. Cardinals start at their own 13 instead of the 32.

And the game ends with a whimper. Harrison Smith come unblocked around the edge for a sack on third down, and Palmer's fourth-and-long pass flutters incomplete in the middle of the field.

But I spoke too soon! it's not over! Vikings are called for roughing the passer and the Cardinals have life.

OK, NOW it's over. Cardinals fail to pick up a first down and Palmer is sacked without a penalty on fourth down.

This was the most defensive 30-24 game you'll ever see. Six total sacks, 21 quarterback hits (15 for the Vikings!), two interceptions, neither quarterback hit 200 yards. Cardinals had seven drives in the second half. None gained more than 27 yards; four of them gained zero yards or went backwards. Vikings' offense wasn't much better -- their longest second-half drive gained only 36 yards -- but they were able to avoid disaster and hang on to their lead for the win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 at Kansas City Chiefs 17

Andrew Potter: The Chiefs haven't scored a touchdown on their opening drive in any game this season. They really looked set to break that streak in this one, opening-play Chris Conley fumble aside, moving down the field almost effortlessly on a 14-play seven-minute drive. Once they got inside the 10-yard line though, things went to pot. They followed a 10-yard gain on a Tyreek Hill sweep with a tight end sweep the same way to Travis Kelce, who had just returned after limping off two plays earlier. William Gholston blew up the second sweep, which never had the faintest chance of working. Then they threw incomplete -- to Kelce again -- before another incomplete, this time to Chris Conley. Neither of the throws covered more than the 5 yards they lost on the Kelce sweep.

The Buccaneers just had a 27-yard gain on a play-action play that amusingly happened because the Chiefs didn't bite at all on the play fake. Frank Zombo continued his pass rush; the coverage stayed with their men, and nobody was fooled by the action to Doug Martin. They were, however, so not fooled that they left Martin completely alone in the right flat with two offensive linemen in front of him. Jameis Winston looked deep then came back to Martin, and he gained around 30 on pure yards-after-catch.

Ron Parker ended the drive by yet again failing to bring in an interception in the left (defensive) corner of the end zone, as he did against Jacksonville. Winston made a terrible decision to force the ball toward Mike Evans in double coverage while being hit by Chiefs defensive end Chris Jones; he had rolled out right away from the pressure, and ought to have simply thrown the ball away. Instead, he threw it straight to Parker and got lucky when Parker bobbled the ball as he fell out of bounds. That was third down, so on the next play the Buccaneers kicked a field goal for the lead.

Also, I know we don't like to talk about him, but Tyreek Hill has added a completely new dimension to this Chiefs offense. He's a threat on sweeps and reverses, slowing the pass rush and opening running lanes, but can also take the top off the coverage on deep shots and beat people after the catch on shorter routes. Whatever his other issues he's a very exciting football player, and definitely one to watch if he can keep his head in the game.

Steven Nelson was very impressive the last time I watched him. Today, not so much. Nelson has been forced into a starting role today by the injury to Marcus Peters. Mike Evans will beat legitimate No. 1 corners, and he beat Nelson with physicality on a deep ball earlier. That's not a big concern. Adam Humphries, however, just turned Nelson inside-out on an out-and-in (Winston badly missed the throw), and Nelson got the first flag of the game earlier because he was struggling to cover Humphries. That is a bit more of a worry for the Chiefs, who take a one-point lead into the half-time locker room.

Travis Kelce was so convinced that Lavonte David just intercepted a bad Alex Smith throw that he suplexed the Bucs linebacker. On the next play, he juked Bradley McDougald so badly that McDougald was still moving the opposite way when Kelce caught the ball in 10 yards of space. Kelce and Tyreek Hill are the only two bright spots on an utterly mediocre Chiefs performance today.

If Jameis Winston could get any consistency whatsoever in his throws -- particularly his three bears' porridge deep balls -- the Buccaneers would be up by way more than their current two-point lead. As it is, he's lucky to have avoided two interceptions along the right sideline -- the earlier Parker bobble, and a badly underthrown deep ball to Mike Evans which was pretty much dropped by Kenneth Acker -- so even that two-point lead is precarious. Hard to imagine Marcus Peters turning down those opportunities if he was on the field.

Chris Conte made the play of the game so far, reading Smith in underneath coverage on the goal line and intercepting an end zone throw intended for Chris Conley. His return set the Buccaneers up at midfield, and they're currently deep in Chiefs territory looking for their first touchdown of the day ... which duly arrives to Alan Cross, fourth of four Buccaneers tight ends on the field for that play.

Not much to say about the ending in Kansas City. The Chiefs aren't built to come from down two scores in the fourth quarter, and they only looked in the remotest danger of getting that second score for one very fleeting moment when Tyreek Hill cut upfield on a punt return. Great win for the Buccaneers, achieved without being anywhere near their best.

Baltimore Ravens 17 at Dallas Cowboys 27

Aaron Schatz: Have we secretly exchanged the Baltimore offensive line and the Dallas offensive line while nobody was looking? Actually, no, it's just that the Dallas run defense is not that good, but wow... Ravens just completely slashing the Dallas defense so far. Mike Wallace had a great catch for about 20 yards on a ball that was WAY too low and he basically picked it up off the ground, but the rest of the touchdown drive was almost entirely runs. The Terrance West 12-yard touchdown run was a thing of beauty. Marshal Yanda pulls left and just obliterates Sean Lee, then Kyle Juszczyk leads to the second level to take out Anthony Hitchens, and West breaks a leg tackle by J.J. Wilcox, and in. 7-0 Baltimore, 3:00 left in first quarter.

Vince Verhei: Ravens have run the ball six times so far. Four of those carries have gained 10 or more yards. That's quite bad for the Cowboys.

Andrew Potter: Getting Yanda back is huge for the Ravens; their line has had a rash of injuries putting guys in and out of the lineup. I have been waiting for their run game to get going for a couple of weeks now, and no surprise it finally happens when Yanda returns.

Aaron Schatz: Midway through the second quarter, the Cowboys turned a first-and-30 (after two 10-yard penalties on the offensive line) into a third-and-6 and then hit a 41-yard pass down the left sideline to Brice Butler. That's a good offense.

At halftime in Dallas, the winner of the battle between the No. 1 run defense and the No. 1 run offense is "tie." Ezekiel Elliott has six runs for 26 yards. The problem is that Ezekiel Elliott has only six runs, in part because Baltimore is holding onto the ball FAR more than you would have expected, and in part because penalties have put the Cowboys into some bad down-and-distance situations. (They have gotten out of them, as I noted about the first-and-30, but it does mean less Elliott.) Oddly, for the second straight week Elliott did not gain a single rushing yard in the second quarter -- this time because he didn't even have a carry.

On the other side of the ball, I realize the Ravens have only 10 points (10-10 tie at halftime) but they are moving the ball pretty well considering they are the No. 32 offense by DVOA. This does not inspire confidence in the Dallas defense.

The general facts about these teams certainly reasserted themselves in the second half. The Baltimore offense went back to mostly struggling, although they did hit a couple of nice passes to Mike Wallace. Their one touchdown drive was extended by a face mask penalty on what would have been a sack on third-and-12. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense has moved the ball much better against the Baltimore defense. Elliott is still getting only about 4 yards per carry, but the passing game is moving the ball. The Ravens' cornerbacks are a real weakness with Jimmy Smith not playing due to injury. Tavon Young has a lot of promise and was a good choice for our midseason Top 25 Prospects list, but he's simply not ready to be covering Dez Bryant. Gave him something like 10 yards of cushion on a 13-yard touchdown pass. It's not always Young; Shareece Wright was covering Bryant and was easily boxed out on Bryant's first touchdown catch (4 yards in the third quarter). Jerraud Powers has also gotten beat a couple times.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 at Cleveland Browns 9

Scott Kacsmar: This game is flying by with all of the successful runs by Pittsburgh and short Ben Roethlisberger completions. Coming into Sunday, there were eight drives of nine-plus minutes this season. The Steelers have started with two field goal drives that were at least nine minutes each. That's the disappointing part, but Le'Veon Bell looks fantastic. He missed both Cleveland games last year when the Steelers were held to 94 yards rushing combined. Bell has already rushed for 77 yards on two drives today. Meanwhile, Cleveland's running game has been completely stifled by a Pittsburgh defense that has not missed Cameron Heyward yet today. That's a bit troubling in this nasty weather for Cleveland, because Cody Kessler is not someone you want to rely on too much. He started the game with a great 38-yard throw to Terrelle Pryor, but has been under a lot more pressure since then, going down three times on sacks. Corey Coleman has had a few drops already. The Steelers may get to halftime with just three possessions, but a 6-0 or 9-0 lead would still feel like a disappointment.

Well, this sounds like something an 0-10 team would do. Pittsburgh basically just ran a red zone practice to end the half. Tomlin was aggressive to go for the touchdown with only five seconds left, and Roethlisberger took too long on the play before forcing an incompletion that should have ended the half. However, the Browns were penalized for a needless hold, extending the half. Tomlin still went for it, but another bad pass play was forgiven by pass interference in the end zone. Finally, the Steelers just ran Bell up the middle since he has been dominating all day, and added a two-point conversion from Roethlisberger to a wide-open David Johnson. Instead of allowing zero points with a good stand, the Browns just gave up eight points and trail 14-0. That's 14 points on just three drives for Pittsburgh.

Aaron Schatz: So in the first half Pittsburgh has only three drives, and Cleveland has only 14 plays. This sounds like one of the most mind-numbing games of all-time.

Vince Verhei: What is it about the Browns that no matter how bad they are, they manage to have one receiver who's exciting enough that he almost makes them worth watching by himself? First it was Josh Cribbs (OK, more of a returner than receiver), then Josh Gordon, and now Terrelle Pryor. He just made a great leaping sideline catch, showing great physical talent and mental timing to get up and high-point the football, while the cornerback just kept on running. That set Cleveland up at the 1-yard line. Then, because they are Cleveland, they moved 5 yards backwards before kicking a field goal. But man, that Pryor catch was outstanding.

Scott Kacsmar: As is often the case, the Steelers won in Cleveland by dominating on defense. A very unexpected eight sacks put some pain on Kessler and Josh McCown, the latter of whom was dying to throw a pick in his relief appearance with a ton of dangerous throws. A fumble-six put the game away, but I too came away impressed with Pryor as a wide receiver. But that offensive line was a mess against a short-handed Pittsburgh defense that has struggled all year to get pressure.

Bryan Knowles: The Browns are now mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the first team officially out this year. That's 14 seasons and counting since they have seen postseason action, as well as 10 straight losing seasons. Ben Roethlisberger won his 10th game at FirstEnergy Stadium, tying the record for most wins for a starting quarterback there despite only playing one game per season in Cleveland.

Other than that, not a bad day for Browns fans.

Tom Gower: Have we linked tothis yet? We should, because it's just so fun notwithstanding the deep and fundamental limitations of quarterback wins.

Chicago Bears 16 at New York Giants 22

Bryan Knowles: Jay Cutler has bounced back quite well from last week's disaster; he's 8-for-9 for 105 yards and a touchdown already. He might be being helped by Jordan Howard having a great day on the ground -- 63 yards on 10 carries. The Giants just have no answers for this, ahem, high-powered Bears offense.

Aaron Schatz: Red Zone switches to the Bears on the New York 30 with 2:00 left and no timeouts. They need a touchdown. First play, Jason Pierre-Paul puts the Chicago right tackle completely on skates and slaps the ball out of Jay Cutler's hand. Cutler doesn't even see it. Who is 76 for the Bears? Wait... that's Mike Adams? Mike Adams is on Chicago now? Oh, man, that offensive line is not in a good place if Mike Adams is starting. I guess he's in with Bobby Massie and Kyle Long both injured on the right side. Whoa boy.

The Bears recovered but Cutler threw a pick to Landon Collins on the very next play. Terrible decision, terrible throw, receiver totally covered. Just awful. Announcers then talk about how the Giants defense has been trending upwards. No it hasn't. It's been good all year. There's no trend. It's good now. It was good early. It's been good. It was not good for two games or so, but otherwise, it's pretty good. There's no trend.

Tennessee Titans 17 at Indianapolis Colts 24

Aaron Schatz: Uh, Tom? What in the Sam Hell is going on in Indianapolis?

Tom Gower: Colts up 21-7 at the half, a score that probably flatters the Titans. Tennessee's offense was mostly miserable for the first 28 minutes of the half. The Colts were the one team in the past four games DeMarco Murray and company were able to have consistent success against (not surprising, given that whole league-worst rushing defense and all), but Indy has been solid up front and limited him to 10 yards on six carries. That hasn't been a problem for the Titans, because the passing offense has been so efficient on third down, but they're not today. First four third downs: incomplete, sack, incomplete, checkdown on third-and-26, and zero points. At the end of the first half, Marcus Mariota got their first two conversions, the first with his legs and the second finding DeMarco Murray after using his legs to avoid an unblocked Hassan Ridgeway.

The dirty secret of last week's game is the Titans didn't play good defense after the first quarter. Green Bay scored on their next five non-kneeldown possessions, and Richard Rodgers miscues (drop and bad route) ended the next two Green Bay possessions. And Indianapolis has more explosive wide receivers, to better challenge a none-too-fast Tennessee secondary. Explosive pass plays have been a problem -- Frank Gore had 49 yards on a catch-and-run on a play where he took the direct snap, tossed the ball back to Andrew Luck, back in the backfield after lining up out wide, and Luck eventually checked it down to Gore, whom the Titans had seemingly ignored. The other went to Phillip Dorsett, wide open after two Titans ran into each other on pursuit crossers (T.Y. Hilton was probably even more open). The Titans have actually been getting near Luck, which they weren't really in the game in Nashville, but he has made throws off balance and under duress, including a touchdown throw that Hilton pretty much took away from Perrish Cox. The Titans' only stop (Indy only had four non-kneeldown possessions) came when Dwayne Allen, open and past the sticks, dropped a ball and Adam Vinatieri missed his first field goal since Week 4 of 2015 (karmic punishment by the cruel Football Gods for Pagano keeping the field goal team out after a Titans penalty turned fourth-and-6 into fourth-and-1).

Bryan Knowles: And now Adam Vinatieri's record consecutive field goal streak is broken! Blair Walsh has hexed the entire league this week.

Aaron Schatz: On the Red Zone, I just saw the Titans run a "chaos" formation play. Baltimore had one earlier today where they started in that formation and then motioned out of it. Hue Jackson, what hath ye wrought? Is this going to be like the Wildcat, where everyone tries to run something that looks like "Chaos" or "Emory & Henry" but they all run it wrong without the proper handoff option?

Tom Gower: Colts offense started misfiring in the second half, repeatedly. After marching up and down the field the first two quarters, they managed only one first down in the third quarter and two in the fourth. The two in the fourth were both incredibly important, though. The first was on a 50-yard pass to T.Y. Hilton to set up a field goal that extended the lead to 24-17, and the second was a conversion on third-and-5 that helped Andrew Luck tank his official rushing yardage totals (officially 8-22 today, actually 4-18 plus 4-(minus-4) that would be attributed to TEAM by the NCAA). Why'd the offense sputter? Derrick Morgan against Joe Haeg (and Jack Doyle at least one play) was a big reason -- the pass rush got there enough to sack or disrupt, not just harass Luck. Hilton dropped what would have been a big gain, potentially a 41-yard touchdown. Brice McCain had two big plays on Hilton -- one to break up a third-and-16 would-be conversion and the other an interception.

And the Titans offense actually did something. No, not the ground game, really, as DeMarco Murray didn't break any long runs and it seemed like he had to break tackles in the backfield just to get 6 yards on first down, but "good" Marcus Mariota picking apart the weak links (mostly, though Vontae Davis did get flagged for PI) of DVOA's 31st-ranked defense. But Clayton Geathers sticked Murray on fourth-and-1 after a fourth-and-2 conversion earlier, that Indy first down, and that was that.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 at Detroit Lions 26

Aaron Schatz: The Lions just picked off Blake Bortles YET AGAIN to win 26-17. That team is just living off close wins, but screw it, they're 6-4. If somebody gets to be on top of their division despite not really being that good, it might as well be a team with a long-suffering fanbase that deserves some happiness (and where I like the guys in the front office).

Philadelphia Eagles 15 at Seattle Seahawks 26

Cian Fahey: God, I love C.J. Prosise.

Vince Verhei: Remember in Quick Reads, when I said the Eagles defense was vulnerable to long runs? Second drive for Seattle, C.J. Prosise takes it off tackle to the right, makes Jalen Mills miss, and gets a 72-yard touchdown. And of course, the extra point is blocked. Announcers are literally scrambling to keep track of all the missed XPs today, trying to figure out if this one came before one in San Francisco.

First quarter ends with the score still 6-0, but the Eagles are driving. They moved the ball well on each of their first two possessions, but stalled in Seattle territory and twice punted into the end zone. Richard Sherman hasn't been playing his typical left corner spot -- it looks like he's spending more time inside, covering tight ends. As a result of that, the Eagles have run a ton of quick slants to the right wide receiver, whoever ends up lined up over there, with more success than failure. 

And they finish the drive with a touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, who split out wide in a bunch and beat Kam Chancellor on an out-and-slant route. The point is good and Philly leads 7-6.

Meanwhile, Seattle's offense has done nothing aside from the one long run -- 85 total yards on three drives, 72 of them on one play.

Seahawks go back up top 13-7 on an all-time great Russell Wilson touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham. With pressure from his left, Wilson steps up in the pocket and scrambles to the sideline. With a defender closing in, and his chest and shoulders pointed directly toward the sideline, he keeps his eyes downfield, then brings his arm up behind his head, and I swear that ball actually went behind him based on where he was running. And somehow it hits an ad-libbing Jimmy Graham right in the hands, and Graham breaks a couple of tackles to get into the end zone. I don't know if there's another quarterback in the league who could have made that throw. 

That pressure from the left, by the way, came in part because George Fant has left the game. Announcers are saying Fant was backing up Bradley Sowell, but that's not true anymore -- Seahawks have announced that Fant, the college basketball player, has won the left tackle job, and Sowell will compete with Garry Gilliam on the right side when he's healthy again. Jason Peters also left for Philadelphia, though he's back on the field now.

Here's that Wilson touchdown. Look at this form and then realize he laid this down soft as a baby into Graham's hands, 20 yards downfield.

Chancellor redeems himself with an interception on a deep cross on the Eagles' last possession of the half. Seahawks get the ball at their 40 with 16 seconds and three timeouts, but Wilson missed Paul Richardson on a deep pass that would have given them a chance at a field goal from the 30, and that was that. 

So it's 16-7 at halftime. Seattle's offense has looked tremendous all in all, especially considering this is DVOA's top defense. The defense has made some plays, but has also gotten lucky that the Eagles have beaten themselves in some big instances. They had a 57-yard middle-screen touchdown to Zach Ertz called back on an illegal formation penalty on the far side of the field. On the next drive, Nelson Agholor beat Richard Sherman on a deep post and was open for a 20-plus-yard gain, but dropped a perfect pass from Carson Wentz. In fact, Agholor might have been the guy who screwed up on the formation foul too.

Teams open the third exchanging punts and interceptions, then the Seahawks extend their lead to 23-7 on a Doug Baldwin pass to Russell Wilson, and no, that's not a typo. I'm not going to lie, that was so great because I could see it coming as soon as Wilson faked to the running back and pitched back to Baldwin. We're almost exactly halfway through the third quarter and the Seahawks are averaging 9.2 yards per play against DVOA's top defense.

Carl Yedor: It seems like players are dropping like flies in Seattle today. By my count, DeShawn Shead, Fletcher Cox, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Jason Peters, George Fant, C.J. Prosise, and Connor Barwin have all had to leave the field with an injury at some point today. Earl Thomas also looked like he might have a hamstring issue after the Richard Sherman interception. These are two of the best defenses in the league, and halfway through the third quarter the physicality of the game may be taking its toll.

As I'm typing this, Doug Baldwin and Russell Wilson reverse roles, with Baldwin throwing a touchdown to Wilson on a trick play. I remember the Seahawks running this once in 2014 against Denver, but it didn't result in a score that time. That's a play they certainly couldn't have ran successfully with Wilson as hobbled as he was earlier in the season.

Vince Verhei: I should add that injuries are hurting both teams in this game. Peters and Fant have returned, but Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles are both out for Philadelphia. I think C.J. Prosise is out for Seattle, and Earl Thomas has left the game after tweaking his hamstring on a Richard Sherman interception. (Do not ask me why Carson Wentz was forcing a deep pass to Bryce Treggs with Sherman and Thomas both in coverage, but that's what happened.)

Philadelphia just punted with about six minutes to go in the third. At this exact moment, Russell Wilson has 15 receiving yards -- or, exactly as many as all Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers combined.

Aaron Schatz: This really feels like a dominant performance by the Seahawks. The offense looks good -- especially considering the quality of the Eagles defense coming into this game -- and the defense has shut this Eagles offense down completely. This game is nowhere near as close as the 23-7 score. With 20 minutes left, the Seahawks have outgained the Eagles by 228 net yards and have a minus-2 turnover margin.

Vince Verhei: Eagles got the ball with 7:15 left, down 19. They got 8 points, but used 3:33 to do it. Remind me who Doug Pederson coached for last year? It looks like the student has learned from the master.

Seahawks recover the ensuing onside kick, but they are literally out of running backs. And so we have got Trevone Boykin trying to play deep tailback. Seriously.

Miami Dolphins 14 at Los Angeles Rams 10

Tom Gower: 7-0 Rams after one half of play (not all of which I saw). Neither offense is that good at consistently executing, which is a problem when you don't have many explosive plays or the sort of field position where you just need one explosive play to put points on the board. In point of fact, there was precisely one third-down conversion in the first half, when Jared Goff spun to his left and found an open Lance Kendricks for 20 yards on third-and-8. The lone score game when I saw a unicorn -- oh, wait, that was just Todd Gurley's first rush of the season for more than 24 yards. He sped through a crease, and the Dolphins didn't have much at the second level.

Vince Verhei: Miami, by the way, another defense that ranked poorly in Quick Reads at allowing explosive runs.

Tom Gower: Miami's depleted offensive line, sans Mike Pouncey and Branden Albert and without Laremy Tunsil late in the first half as well, has been creating problems in pass protection and making it hard for Jay Ajayi to find consistent success, no matter how violently he runs. Damien Williams' (I think) blitz pickup has been a particular problem, with Ryan Tannehill going down a couple times on third downs to unblocked defensive backs while Williams didn't get anybody.

Goff in general? Not a disaster, but this isn't a good situation and I don't see him transcending it.

Aaron Schatz: I think I have figured out how the Rams are playing so well against the Dolphins today. They think they are playing the AAFC's Miami Seahawks. They always do well against the Seahawks.

It's like the Rams' defense suddenly froze up with five minutes left, except for the Jarvis Landry touchdown where a crowd of Dolphins had to push a crowd of Rams into the end zone. And then the Rams had 40 seconds to come back to score, one timeout left, and they threw an 8-yard slant in the middle of the field. Seriously, guys?

Tom Gower: Rams pass rush completely shut down the Dolphins offense for the first 53 minutes, then disappeared for Miami's final two drives, unless you want to count Aaron Donald's roughing-the-passer penalty that helped kick off the second, decisive touchdown drive.

New England Patriots 30 at San Francisco 49ers 17

Aaron Schatz: Patriots defense still trying to figure out how to organize without Jamie Collins around. They also left Jabaal Sheard home today, and they're blitzing more defensive backs than usual trying to get pressure on Colin Kaepernick. It's been very hit-or-miss. Patriots sacked Kaepernick five times in the first half, but Kaepernick also went 8-for-9 when he threw the ball. The Patriots offense is moving the ball well -- egads the 49ers run defense is awful -- but they went into halftime with only 13 points because of a drive ruined by penalties, a good drive that ended in no man's land as the half ran out of time, and a missed extra point.

Chip Kelly has really slowed down his offense since Colin Kaepernick became the starting quarterback, it seems. Look at these play times for five plays on a third-quarter drive: 13:27, 12:58, 12:23, 11:41, 11:02. Who are you and what have you done with Chip Kelly?

Tom Brady just bought time with his feet against San Francisco pressure, got free to connect with Malcolm Mitchell downfield for a 56-yard touchdown, about half air yards and half after the catch. Brady's pocket movement today has been outstanding.

Tom Gower: In what I have seen of this game, San Francisco's relatively anemic pass rush has been doing a good job of getting Brady off his spot, but he has done an even better job of pocket movement and resetting and then finding open receivers (or maybe I have just had the good/bad/whatever luck of flipping over to see Patriots scoring drives).

Green Bay Packers 24 at Washington Redskins 42

Aaron Schatz: Can I register that I really don't quite understand Jordy Nelson's touchdown catch with 9:27 left in the second quarter? It looked to me like Josh Norman slapped it out of his hand. You lose a catch if you have it for a while but don't hold on while going to the ground, but not if you have it for a while but don't hold on while standing still?

Tom Gower: The rules for going to the ground are different. Nelson wasn't going to the ground, so he needed control, two feet, and had the ball long enough to become a runner by tucking the ball away (or doing some other actions). Nelson controlled the ball immediately, got two feet down, and turned before Norman slapped the ball out. Catch, touchdown.

Vince Verhei: Well that's ridiculous. (The rule, not Tom's explanation.) I know nobody knows what a catch is anymore, but that looked like such a non-catch I was angry at the call, and I don't have a dog in this fight. The TV announcers had a good point: are you telling me that if that catch had been at the 50 instead of the end zone, they would have called it a catch-and-fumble?

Tom Gower: Correct, catch plus fumble.

Washington up 13-10 at the half. I don't know what to say about this game. Packers offense is the Packers offense, mostly improvisational after nothing happens in the quick game, except when it does, in which case it's often devastating barring receiver failure. Washington has a lot of talented pass catchers. Green Bay's defense seemed to get a Clay Matthews-related bump (what's the DVOA split with and without him? probably not as much as the 15-points-per-game difference would suggest), but the cover guys are still problems, and Washington has pass catchers.

Aaron Schatz: The other thing is that honestly it's like the problem with the route combinations in the Packers offense has just been worse because of the high winds that are basically taking any deep passes out of the playbook.

Third quarter, Packers defense having some real problems. Their secondary is so banged up... no Sam Shields, Demetri Goodson going out tonight. Washington just hit Jamison Crowder deep for a 44-yard touchdown. I can't believe I wrote "Jamison Crowder deep." It's like saying "Wes Welker deep." Apparently, Washington does not think the winds have taken deep passes out of the playbook.

Bryan Knowles: Washington playing the interesting "have no one on the same side of the field as James Starks" defense. Looks like there was confusion pre-snap, and everyone decided that they'd better cover Jordy Nelson. Easiest 31-yard touchdown you'll ever see. I could have scored on that, and my 40-yard time is measured with an hourglass.

Aaron Schatz: Well, Washington just came back with another deep torching of the Green Bay secondary. This one was by Pierre Garcon so it made a little more sense. Shouldn't DeSean Jackson be getting involved in this?

Vince Verhei: Is it just me or is NBC's audio mix all screwed up? The announcers are too loud and the ambient stadium noise is way too quiet. Or is there just nobody in this stadium?

Scott Kacsmar: I like any quarterback sneak call, but that one by Washington was especially exciting. A little bit of a risk with a 5-point lead in your own end, but felt like the right call with the way the game has been going. Don't want to risk a crap punt in this wind. For that reason, hope Washington remains aggressive on this drive. Touchdown wins the game, but field goal will keep it a one-score game.

Bryan Knowles: 12 missed extra points today. I know it's a fluke that all are happening in one day, but that's certainly remarkable.

Posted by: Andrew Potter on 21 Nov 2016

137 comments, Last at 25 Dec 2016, 12:36pm by gusto

Comments

1
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 11:55am

Ottawa beat Edmonton and Calragry beat bc Lions in cfl oplayoff games. would be nice to occasionll y discuss CFL gams on this forum,

14
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:43pm

This deserves recognition as one of the better trolls of the FO staff.

52
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:08pm

well not wanting staff to do DVOA for CFL teams btu maybe an extra point thing on another league like CFGL or Artena league would be cool once in whiel. Like, maybe extra point previewing CFL seasn in June and then playoff preview or just one for Grey Cup. so maybe 3 CFL things max in a year or maybe just one.

but wouldn't throw hissy fit if CFL doesn't get any coverage. do not live in Canada so figure maybe some psoters here follow it and could be some brief CFL chatting.

54
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:15pm

Your work is not done until the FOMBC is invoked for the Stampeders!

65
by Guest789 :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:29pm

As a Canadian, I'd be super-down for this.

82
by Axe2Grind :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:51pm

Also a Canadian. It would be interesting to see some CFL coverage on the site. This year my home team, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, had an unreal number of takeaways.

They lead the league with 59 takeaways and only turned the ball over 30 times. They had 30 interceptions vs giving up only 13. They were +29 vs. Calgary's +19 on the turn over ratio in an 18 game season. That's an average of 1.6 turnovers more than your opponent a game.

Perhaps even more startling was the fact they averaged 8.3 points off turnovers per game and were +75 points off turnovers minus points given up off turnovers. The next best team was just +20 points.

Our kicker set a CFL record with 60 field goals in one season. He had 7 in one game. We lost in the semi-finals when he missed a 61 yard attempt. Earlier in the year he made one from 58 yards. He was 5 of 8 from 50+ yard attempts.

Jereme Brown

83
by Axe2Grind :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:55pm

blah, double post

Jereme Brown

85
by amin purshottam :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:01pm

Well I'm inToronto and I really couldn't care less about the CFL but that's just me.

92
by Axe2Grind :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:13pm

I'm on this site because I like football. I like both the CFL and the NFL because in part they are very different games and yet a lot of the strategy and analysis is still applicable to both.

Jereme Brown

117
by Rich A :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 1:54am

Hey Jereme,

I'm in Winnipeg too.

We should watch some football together sometime. I think I found you on facebook, I just sent you a friend request and a message, look out for it in the hidden inbox.

24
by Guest789 :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:05pm

Do you think Ottawa has a chance in the Grey Cup? Calgary has been a juggernaut all season and dismantled BC.

51
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:05pm

Calgary will probably win but you never knwo. game played on neutral field in Toronto. preiciton is Calgary 34, Ottawa 16

88
by Axe2Grind :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:05pm

If Ottawa does manage to have a huge upset and win, it will be the first time in league history that a team with a losing record (8-9-1), has won the Grey Cup in 104 seasons.

We have a cross-over playoff format which allows the 4th place team in one division to get a playoff game in the other divison if their record is better than the 3rd place team in the other division. The team Ottawa beat to get in the Grey Cup, Edmonton, finished 10-8-0. No cross-over team has ever played in a Grey Cup final.

Jereme Brown

41
by Paul R :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:36pm

After the Bengals/Steelers playoff game last year, I got disgusted with football and started watching cricket.

The Australian Big Bash League kicks off in a few weeks. Could we add that as well?

Go Scorchers!

2
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:02pm

Eags should go down below Raiders in next round of DVBOA ratings. eags 5-5. kinda crappy team actually. deegensive backfield kind of iffy. linebacking alrright. defensive line some good players. Quarterback very green. Can see C. Wentz not going through reads well enough. Feel like complete moron having switched spread pick from seattle -6.5 to Eags getting points beucuase listened to some blowhard on wekekend whno was certain eags would keep it close. should have stuck with gut. no way some rookie quarterback on team witgh crappy secondary going to go into seattle and do good.

6
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:17pm

We get another week where there is reason to think Seattle is going to become adequate, maybe even better than adequate, at blocking. That makes them very, very, good.

Like the Raiders o-line tonight wearing out the Texans' defense, in the polluted, 7200 foot elevation, air of Mexico City.

26
by LyleNM :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:09pm

Will, you and I (and others) were rightly concerned about the state of the Seahawks OL after they traded Unger. Now it appears as though Justin Britt - who was a failure at tackle and mostly a failure at guard - might be turning into an average or above average center. He's got the smarts for it and they actually have some young talented guards if they can manage to stay on the field at the same time. Center continues to be the most underrated position on the field in the NFL. With a trustworthy center, Tom Cable's coaching can turn this line into something that Wilson can use to maximum advantage.

28
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:12pm

Unger trade looking like it may be poor in the short term, but quite good in the long term. In other words, a good trade.

38
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:31pm

Yes, a poor short-term ---move when your team was on a SB window due to amazing wealth of draft success on C1 deals..... ---is a good trade.

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

42
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:39pm

Hey, if they become a good blocking unit within a season and a half of trading Unger, become a more dangerous offense because Graham now is used better than he was in his 1st year in Seattle, then it eventually became a good trade. Now, if the what we have seen recently from the Seattle 0-line is not a trend, but just an anomaly, then of course that changes things. Sometimes you don't have the answer yet. Through the early part of this season, I wasn't a fan of the trade. If I was wrong, then I was wrong.

58
by Joe Pancake :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:51pm

A few things to remember about this trade:

1) Rumor had it that Unger was going to be cap casualty anyway.
2) Graham's injury last year came on an unforeseeable, fluke play. And had he been available in the playoffs against the Panthers (he had a great game against them in the regular season), it might have been a great move in the short term.
3) The Seahawks gave up a (low) first-rounder, but got back a (mid-range) fourth-rounder, which they used in a package to trade up to get Tyler Lockett.

As a Seahawks fan, I was tepidly in favor of it at the time, and now I think it looks even better.

33
by RickD :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:25pm

It's certainly going to be interesting looking at the disparity between the Eagles' DVOA (which I doubt will go down much losing to Seattle) and their playoff odds. They've got GB, @Cincy, Was, @Bal, NYG, Dal. The Packers and Bengals are in free fall, but the last four are going to be tough, and they'll have to win at least three of them. On the plus side, they won't have to travel much - after the short flight to Cincinnati they will only have to take the bus to Baltimore.

And yes, Wentz certainly wasn't ready for the Seahawks' defense.

84
by Insancipitory :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:01pm

The Eagles went from a solid chance at a wild card to last in their division in one game. Their defense could also take a hit from what DVOA currently thinks the Seahawks true offense is that shows up in the simulation. It might be more than a 30% drop.

93
by Lance :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:23pm

Just looking at the standings shows how hard Philly's changes are. They are 5-5 while Washington is 6-3-1. For Philly's purposes, that's basically 7-3. Moreover, the Eagles are 0-3 in the division, and 3-5 in the conference. Both of those are high on the list of play-off tie-breakers.

Even though I have been following this site for over a decade, I won't pretend to understand the nuances of DVOA, etc. I was about to write that I was going to expect Philly to drop q bit after this game, but... Seattle quite good, and losing to a good team doesn't hurt one's ratings that much in this system (e.g. New England after their loss to Seattle). So, who knows? I am curious what will happen this week!

3
by johonny :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:03pm

Mia/LA This was the dullest NFL game I've watched in years sans the last 6 minutes or so. I'm not sure why Parker playing better is a surprise. It used to be wide outs took a few seasons to transition to the NFL. I know there are more college ready WR now, but Parker seems to be growing just fine for a guy with holes in his college game. Welcome back to LA NFL. I'm guessing Jeff Fisher will get fired at the end of the season. The LA crowd is not with him and his prize QB looks iffy. Their defense is legit though. Someone is going to walk into a nice situation if they work out the QB position next season. As for the Dolphins, their old man and the sea OLINE seems to be setting up for a big December let down. Oddly their old man Dline has held up this season while their youngish Oline has been a MASH unit. The unicorns are gone again. AFCeast watch 1) the Pats had a by week right? 2) Miami-Part of what makes the AFCeast such a terrible division isn't that the teams are terrible behind the Pats every season. It's that even when they're good they miss the playoffs and never challenge for the division title. This season seems to be shaping up that way. 3)Bills-see Miami comment above. 3)Jets-IDK maybe ROMO as a two year rental?

8
by James-London :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:26pm

I couldn't get the Miami game yesterday, and went to bed when the Seahawks game turned into a laugher. At that point Miami were 10-0 down without a 3rd down conversion to their name. so I was pleasantly suprised to wake up this morning to a 14-10 win. What changed on the final two drives?

Miami should beat the 49ers next week, but Baltimore's D against anything but Miami's best O-line could be painful.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

40
by johonny :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:36pm

Hard to say. The Oline kept them off Tannehill and Parker caught fire. It was a terrible result for Jeff Fisher. They wanted his head in LA before this...

45
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:41pm

The mind of Kroeneke is hard to discern. The best I can figure is that he wants to time a big coaching hire with his stadium construction, to maximize the ease of PSL sales.

122
by fyo :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 8:19am

Luck is what happened. Luck combined with skill, at least.

The whole comeback started with some defensive penalties and an unlikely scrum touchdown for Landry, who was wrapped up by three guys (!) at the 4.5 yard mark. Six LA defenders were closer to the goal line than that, but every single one appeared to think the play was over and did nothing. It's pretty funny watching the broadcast in slomo and seeing four offensive linemen enter the frame right as Landry gets hit. They are a good 10 yards away at that point, but four big guys with a full head of steam...

Only three actually hit the three defenders + Landry pile, with Kraig Urbik stopping just a few feet short, apparently thinking the play was wrapped up. The charge was lead by Anthony Steen (center) and there's no doubt in my mind the play would have been dead if not for him. He came flying in and completely removed one of the three defenders on Landry, while his knees pushed down on the defender who had Landry's legs wrapped. With both guys out of the way, it was a 1-on-1 shoving match for a few steps until the Ju'Wuan James (RT) and Jermon Bushrod (RG) came and hit the pile. Damien Williams (RB) added to the momentum and even though the pile was still at the three yard line and the Rams had another four players hitting the pile from the endzone, that was it. Too much momentum and Landry was in for the score.

The woeful offensive line managed a few decent blocks in a row and Tannehill threw the passes he always throws, but that his receivers never catch. The touchdown pass to Parker was perfectly placed, but it's one that is still dropped by the Dolphins nearly half the time. The catch Parker had a couple of plays before wasn't even close to a 50/50. The ball was really low and Parker just barely got his hands under it before it hit the ground. It's one of those passes that was hailed as "great" because it was caught, but would have been called "just a bad pass" if it hadn't been. There was more room to the outside and Parker had his man beat. Had it been half a foot short, it would have been incomplete. Had it been half a foot further to the inside, it would have been picked off.

56
by jonsilver :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:24pm

No...rest of Jets team not good enough to justify that outlay (D-line has shown itself to be overated this year, and Richardson will be gone...a couple of good young linebackers, but Harris (team's best tackler/run defender) will retire...secondary needs a corner when Revis moves to safety, which should be yesterday...O-line needs new LT, C at minimum...no tight end on roster...) task #1 for next 21 regular season games is figuring out if one of the two young qbs can be depended upon, because the word is there's no qb worth drafting this coming April...also sign a cheap free agent qb as stopgap, perhaps...meanwhile, trade for/stockpile picks...yet another Jets rebuild is required...Jon Silverberg (Jets fan since they were the Titans of NY)

79
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:25pm

Personally, I like Mitch Trubisky, but he won't look good in Qbase, but he looks good on the field as long as a Hurricane isn't approaching. He also has a year of eligibility left.
If the Jets do sign Romo, it's shows that the owner cares more about money and selling seats than winning.

Hopefully one of the supposed franchise qbs falls to the Jets slot and they can get a boatload of draft picks from another team. I have doubts about Kizer, Watson and Kayaa right now. Myles Garrett would be great, but they aren't bad enough to get him.

There's no justification for starting Fitzpatrick unless Petty gets hurt. Also, Revis will have to be cut. If they were going to try him at safety, it'd have to happen now.

113
by jonsilver :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 11:13pm

Can't speak to your college qb comments; regarding college ball, all I know is what I read in the funny papers, and I don't spend much time doing that...
2 Best outcome for Romo and the Jets would be if he goes to Denver, as he supposedly would like to do...
3 Bowles announced Fitz would start Sunday...sigh...

69
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 4:16pm

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/9/15/12896532/jeff-fisher-los-angeles-rams-...

"jeff fisher is a ponzi scheme"
lol

--------------------------------------
The standard is the standard!

121
by Bobman :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 4:01am

He has now passed (or tied, can't recall) Tom Landry for the second most losses of any NFL coach. With about 100 fewer games coached. Ouch. When he and McNair and George and Kearse played my Colts twice a year I grudgingly admired him, but now... yes, Ponzi scheme. If the Mendoza line in MLB is batting .200, then the Fisher line in NFL coaching is going 8-8.

124
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 10:46am

I was going to argue the Fisher Line should actually be 7-9, but I looked up his career coaching record on PFR, and it's debatable:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/FishJe0.htm

8-8 five times, 7-9 four times, 7-8-1 once. In 20 seasons as a full-time coach (not counting his first partial year, or this year), he finished with between 7 and 8 wins 12 times, meaning he's .500 or slightly more mediocre 60% of the time. Six winnning seasons, in all that time.

Jeff Fisher's coaching career has to be one of the singly most inexplicable things in all of NFL history.

125
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 11:26am

I think what happened is that he had some success while working for a terrible, terrible, ownership situation, and had the legitimate excuse of having gone through cap hell a couple times, which, combined with a current owner who has had different priorities than on the field success for several years now, has given him more rope than any NFL coach since the merger. Just a weird confluence of events. It is possible that he was a mush better coach in his first decade than in his second. We tend to think that an individual coach's performance is a near-constant throughout their career, but there isn't much reason to think that is case. They improve sometimes and get worse as well.

126
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 12:44pm

No matter what you think of Fisher now, no one can argue that his first few seasons in the NFL were very good, given what he had to work with. He took over a mess of a Houston Oilers team, who had roughly the equivalent roster talent of today's Cleveland Browns (remember Bud Adams gutted the team in order to get under cap, when the salary cap first took effect). To get several seasons of competent play out of that team, and then come within a yard of taking the Greatest Show on Turf Rams to overtime in Super Bowl 34, was very impressive.

As you imply, he either "lost his touch" after that, or he became set in his ways and the game passed him by. I remember his tenure in Tennessee in the 2000's as squandering some very talented teams by failing in the playoffs over and over again.

127
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 1:15pm

I really think a lot of fans greatly underestimate what a impediment to success it is to have the likes of Bud Adams as an owner.

128
by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 1:42pm

I think that's a fair point, but, even with that, this is his fifth year as the Rams HC. 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10, 7-9, and now 4-6 so far. Granted, the Rams have been planning on moving and that's pretty much all Kroenke has appeared to care about, but, at some point, owner quality or not, just maybe something better than Fisher was out there?

I don't doubt that Fisher has kept his job because he's worked for lousy owners who cared more about profit than winning, but that doesn't mean Fisher's consistent level of mediocrity is somehow comprehensible. Mike Brown in the 90s, the old Bidwill regime, the Fords . . . there are a lot of bad and/or apathetic owners in the NFL, and even they fire bad coaches. Fisher's like a cockroach at this point, he apparently just can't be ended by any means.

129
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 1:54pm

Kroeneke really may be unique, in that it isn't merely that he doesn't care about winning at this point in time, but actively doesn't want to make a good and showy coaching hire until his stadium is closer to completion. He may be actively embracing the suck for several more months, until he is within a year of playing in the new place.

130
by jtr :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 3:21pm

Kroenke has really been flashing a giant middle finger at the LA fanbase so far this year. The kicker for me has been that the team has been wearing away jerseys at home, just to show how little they care about anything that happens before they open up their shiny new stadium.

131
by Will Allen :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 3:59pm

Well , look, he's building the joint with his own money, which is showing a lot more consideratation to the fan base than the overwhelming majority of owners exhibit. He's doing those things which he thinks will make him more money, and I don't you or I are particularly qualified to give him advice in that endeavor.

133
by BJR :: Wed, 11/23/2016 - 9:00am

In defense of Fisher, he took over the Rams at a point when the team was an utter tire fire and had just endured one of the worst 3/4 years stretches in NFL history. He quickly made them competitive again, and evidently has an ability to motivate his players and coach defense.

Obviously Fisher's ideas about offence in the NFL belong in the distant past, and its way past the point when a fresh injection was needed there to stimulate what has been a putrid situation on that side of the ball for many years now. But that his career has become a punchline is somewhat unfortunate and unfair; he has achieved respectable results in some terrible situations.

4
by serutan :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:05pm

Too bad McCarthy didn't open his post game presser with "I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue."
______
Was wr

5
by bingo762 :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:14pm

"I said the Eagles defense was vulnerable to long runs"

How can a defense be vulnerable to long runs? Aren't long runs the result of the defense being vulnerable to something else. For instance, I'm a ginger. Would the writer say I was vulnerable to sun burn and be accurate? No, I'm vulnerable to UV rays which cause sun burn

9
by DavidL :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:27pm

"At risk of giving up long runs," then. Whatever words you'd use to express the fact that they're not good at stopping RBs who make it past the defensive line.

66
by gomer_rs :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:33pm

"Vulnerable to long runs" translates to, NFL running backs can outrun the free safety in a foot race.
_______

I remember when they were the Sea-chickens.

94
by Jimmy Oz :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:28pm

On this run it looked like a gap discipline issue by rookie CB Jalen Mills, along with good blocking. After the initial cut-back, Prosie faked inside the Baldwin block and got Mills to leave outside contain. The safety McLeod had the gap inside the Baldwin block so when Mills bit inside it meant that two Eagles were both filling the same gap.

http://www.seahawks.com/video/2016/11/20/cj-prosise-runs-72-yards-touchd...

101
by Perfundle :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 7:06pm

Getting free is one thing. It's just that you rarely see a running back with the ball outrun defenders for 50 yards to the end zone with no blockers; even Lynch had blockers for both of the Beast Quakes. It was funny seeing the safety barely running ahead of a DT, though to be fair Cox is one of the fastest DTs in the league.

103
by gomer_rs :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 7:54pm

The CB definitely has bad gap discipline, he chases Prosise back toward the middle of the field when Prosise angles off his blocker's hip rather than staying wide and containing. But, giving up leverage and the edge should have cost the Eagles 15-20 yards not 70. The single high FS, lined 20-25 yards off the ball, charges the line at the snap (because who has responsibility for the back third? Apparently not this guy!), and then angles out to even with Prosise maybe a half yard behind, and 30 yards later he's 2-3 yards behind.

Not an Eagles fan, but that was terrible play by the safety. Especially for a play with a single high with 10 other players withing 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

I almost want Baylor style third level RPOs to enter the league to expose crummy safety play like that. I think there is a lot of bad free safeties.
_______

I remember when they were the Sea-chickens.

111
by Jimmy Oz :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 10:47pm

Not saying McLeod covered himself in glory, but i put this about 90% on Mills.

https://youtu.be/lvc0rULLddM?t=159

Very similar play, but the WR takes a different route to the block. There's a big gain, but by maintaining gap responsibility the CB doesn't take himself out of the play, and the safety is in position to help if needed.

119
by gomer_rs :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 2:15am

That's basically the same defense. Both Mills and McLeod play it much better. Mills maintains leverage and McLeod doesn't concede his depth at the snap so he can react and help. It's just a matter of which player you want to focus on. Both players need to fail spectacularly to give up the 70 yard run.
_______

I remember when they were the Sea-chickens.

86
by bubqr :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:03pm

I think both safeties are very aggressive, and go downhill really fast, which means higher variance (more TFLs but bigger holes when they miss a tackle or take a wrong angles). It applies to that long run IIRC where Jenkins missed a tackle and McLeod took an overaggressive angle very early on and could not recover.

7
by TecmoBoso :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:26pm

I'm still trying to figure out why Nelson was given a catch, even he thought he dropped it and in the replay it doesn't really look like he ever has it. I find it hard to believe that's a catch at the 50 yard line.

I understand that DVOA is trying to tell us something more than the eye test, but the Eagles/Seahawks game did not look like the top two teams in the league playing each other. Though I understand, it is one of those years. But usually in a year like this even the bad teams wouldn't be that bad. But the Browns are really bad, and the Jags, Bears, 49ers, and Jets are pretty bad themselves. So it's odd that we have five bad teams and then no really very good team outside of, maybe, Seattle (though Dallas could get there too).

12
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:30pm

I think there's a decent chance they call that a fumble by Nelson, if it happens at the 50.

13
by justanothersteve :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:35pm

I'm a Packers fan and have Nelson in FFL. I didn't think it was a catch and was stunned when the replay didn't overturn it. It didn't matter in the end. The Packers defense can't stop anyone at this point. That includes the Browns.

18
by Joe Pancake :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:51pm

Nelson catch could have gone either way, in my opinion.

One thing I think we need to get used to as fans is that some plays are so close that there is no definitive "right" or "wrong" call. This isn't because the refs are bad or because rules are poorly written; it's because each person sees and processes an event a little differently than everybody else, and when you are breaking plays down to the microsecond and millimeter, as we can do now with hi-def, super slo-mo replay, reasonable people can come to different conclusions.

I seem to be in the minority among NFL fans, in that I have no problem with how catches are adjudicated on field. In fact, I think the rules actually make a lot of sense, and I almost always agree with the referee's decision. I don't really get the "nobody knows what a catch is" refrain.

22
by RoninX :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:00pm

I definitely agree with your first point, and I think it actually answers your second point.

To me, the real meat of the "nobody knows what a catch is" derives from that very possibility for reasonable people to watch a bang-bang play in super slo-mo and disagree. We as viewers (and announcers) literally do not know what a referee is going to decide when they go under the hood on a certain moiety of these close catch calls. For starters, I wish the super slow-mos had a timer running in them to give a little more context on just how small a slice of time we are looking at.

35
by Eddo :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:28pm

My brother had an idea that I actually like: only allow super slow motion during reviews for clear "boundary issue" plays. That is, if the review is whether or not the ball crossed the goal line, or a player stepped out of bounds, and so forth, but not for "was this a catch" reviews. (Not sure where a challenge over down-by-contact would fall, exactly.)

This would do nothing to improve accuracy, but would mitigate the constant bitching about "I don't know what's a catch any more" for the reasons you discuss.

36
by RickD :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:28pm

I think super slo-mos actually make it harder to determine if there is possession. I wish the networks would mix in slow-mo replay with full-speed replay more. A lot of things are easier to see at full speed because that's how our brains operate.

43
by Noah Arkadia :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:40pm

I'm with you. Football is mechanically complex and implementing the rules is always going to be a mess. The catch was as close as they come, but the rule is clear enough.

47
by RBroPF :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:44pm

Thank you for this comment, I couldn't agree more.

I know what a catch is, just like I know what pass interference is, or what holding is. But on the field these are subjective judgement calls and I won't always agree with the refs. That doesn't mean I don't know or can't understand the rules.

10
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:27pm

As long as the Vikings gets two tds a game from defense and special teams, they're fine. That's sustainable, isn't it? I actually think the offense is coached pretty darned well. They just have guys blocking who don't belong in the league.

I don't watch the 10-12 games a week you need to watch to have an educated opinion on who deserves to be selected as All-Pro, but Xavier Rhodes is really, really, good, big, and very football-fast. The way he kept increasing his lead on Brown, after 30-50 yards, while carrying the football on his pick-6, was pretty impressive. He'd probably be a wide receiver if he could catch the ball reliably.

17
by James-London :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:47pm

The Vikes D was great, and, as a bonus, Minnesota didn't have the worst O-line on the field yesterday. The Vikings O-line wasn't great, but man, Arizona were terrible.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

23
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:02pm

Well, to be fair, the Vikings have better pass rushers than the Cards, and Shurmur has to be a lot more careful about asking his o-linemen to sustain blocks. It is remarkable that both qbs finished the game, the way they were getting bludgeoned. The Vikings offense is kind of morbidly interesting, because this is likely the best receiving corps they have had since Randy Moss was in his prime, and Bradford can generally put the ball where he wants to, on time. There's just rarely enough time, and with Peterson hurt, defenses don't play the run at all.

David Johnson's terrific, isn't he?

27
by James-London :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:10pm

Johnson's a beast. For all that Elliot is getting (deserved) attention, how good would Johnson be in Dallas?

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

30
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:16pm

I think he could threaten the single season yard from scrimmage record with that offensive line, and the Dallas receivers, around him.

46
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:42pm

Everything about Johnson is pretty great; speed, power, vision, receiving ability, the college he went to . . .

Go Panthers.

48
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:51pm

That whole neck of the woods in Iowa is kind of an unknown treasure. I wonder at what point, if ever, that Kirk Ferentz realized that there was kid playing a few miles away from Iowa City, in Cedar Falls, who was better than anybody he had on his roster.

50
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:59pm

if he didn't in the past, he's learning. They actually have a top25 national recruit from IL coming in.

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The standard is the standard!

63
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:25pm

Ferentz's teams rarely have a really great RB. They tend to look like the old Broncos -- they keep plugging in a new guy who rushes for about 1000 yards at 5 yards a rush.

The bigger question is why didn't Wisconsin notice him?

67
by Ben :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:38pm

As a Colts fan, I always get depressed when I see Xavier Rhodes highlights.

A lot of people will point to the Trent Richardson trade as Ryan Grigson's worst move as the Colts' GM. I will put the 2013 Draft first round right up there.

The Colts picked Bjorn Werner. While, the Colts needed a pass rusher, Werner never panned out and was cut after his rookie contract. With the very next pick, the Vikings picked Rhodes(the Colts certainly needed secondary help as well as pass rush, and a lot of Colts fans thought Rhodes would be the pick). Two picks after that, the Texans picked Deandre Hopkins. Certainly there would have been a lot of grief given to Grigson if he had picked a WR there, but Luck throwing to Hopkins and TY Hilton would have been a hell of a show...

Le sigh.

120
by Bobman :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 3:58am

The way Jerry Hughes became a pro bowler in Buffalo, I was half expecting Werner to explode once they released him.

Whenever I saw Hughes, he was fast but raw and too weak on the edge, getting blocked (manhandled really) by TEs. He only looked good when unblocked and let's face it, you and would look okay if unblocked as well. Somehow he leaves Indy and racks up 10 sacks per year. So with that in mind, I assumed that if Werner didn't move on to greater success in football, it's probably because he just discovered the cost-free, painless solution to global warming. Or something.

72
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 4:49pm

"As long as the Vikings gets two tds a game from defense and special teams, they're fine. That's sustainable, isn't it?"

I can empathize with your consternation about your favorite team winning in unsustainable ways. Fun fact: not only have the Lions trailed in the 4th quarter of all 10 of their games (only sharing that ignominy with the Browns), they've been outgained by their opponent in every single one of their victories.

The upcoming early Thanksgiving game could be called "The Unsustainably Winning Teams Bowl", or perhaps "Well, I guess someone has to win this division Bowl".

75
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:02pm

"How is this Possibowl?"

81
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:41pm

LeBrom James, F, C. cavaliers would find Possibowl name too racist-sounding

95
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:29pm

Okay, I'm going to need that one explained. Neither being from the US nor a follower of basketball, I cannot figure out any possible racist connotations of any of that. Feel free to e-mail me through the Scramble address or the contact form if it's too close to being a Rule One violation, but I'm deeply curious to know how that could be possibly (mis)construed racially in any way.

97
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:43pm

Rj is engaging in some punnery related to Lebron taking offense to Phil Jackson's use of the term "posse" to describe James' business associates/life long friends.

102
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 7:29pm

Thanks to both you and Mike Tomlin's #1 fan for the explanation. And here, I always thought a posse had more to do with the classic John Wayne movies my grandfather loved than any Cleveland basketballer and his compadres.

105
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 8:14pm

Yes, weird thing for Jamesto say. Neversww posse used im any type of racial way in past.

Also, didn't mean to make you wonder if I was accusing you of racism. Never seen anything racist here. Just saw opp for comment that might befunny .

115
by Andrew Potter :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 12:05am

I definitely appreciate the play on words -- now that I understand the joke!

112
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 10:59pm

Some hip hop guys started to use "posse" to refer to their entourages back in the day, and I'm sure that's where Jackson picked it up. Elderly former coaches should never try to sound cool.

98
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:44pm

http://www.espn.com/blog/golden-state-warriors/post/_/id/2770/kevin-dura...

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The standard is the standard!

99
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:44pm

http://www.espn.com/blog/golden-state-warriors/post/_/id/2770/kevin-dura...

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The standard is the standard!

104
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 8:09pm

Yes, will Allen explained it below
was just play on James saying "posse" is racist word.

123
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 9:27am

I don't think he was implying that "posse" itself was racist (although thug is coming around to that concept, even though I've never seen it used to refer to an Indian highwayman, which is the canonical usage), he was implying that referring to his business associates as a posse was racist.

It's certainly denigratory, regardless of its larger social context.

87
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:05pm

The Cavs and Cubs won titles. Trump won the election.

In the context of 2016, this is downright mundane.

76
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:06pm

Given the Lions had about 115 passing yards until 26 seconds were left in the game in Minneapolis two weeks ago, and still managed to win, I'm guessiing their mojo is stronger in Detroit on Thursday.

78
by Travis :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:17pm

The Lions ran 21 times yesterday and gained a grand total of 14 yards against the 28th best rush defense in the league, and their only rushing first down came on a jet sweep by the tight end.

118
by andrew :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 2:06am

The Vikings are now 2-0 when gaining less than 220 yards (217 Sunday, 211 vs Panthers week 3).

The rest of the NFL is 0-10.

11
by jtr :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:28pm

The Cleveland Browns are so bad. (Audience: "HOW BAD ARE THEY?"). They're so bad, they made the Steelers pass rush look awesome!

Seriously, with Cam Heyward hurt and 2015 first round OLB Bud Dupree playing one single snap, there is a desperate lack of playmaking talent up front for the Steelers. It's a terrible indictment of the Browns offense that they allowed eight sacks to a defense that had only 13 to its name coming into the game.
After taking four sacks and a couple of other brutal hits, I have to wonder how much 37-year old Josh McCown really wants to suit up next week for the Browns.

37
by RickD :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:30pm

That sounds suspiciously like how I felt about the 49ers yesterday afternoon. Suddenly the Pats have a pass rush! Um, before we get excited there...

39
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:34pm

I was shocked he got up from the Tuitt hit.

Candidate for hit of the year.

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The standard is the standard!

15
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:43pm

Shocked KC's defensive front seven didn't turn this into a rout for the Chiefs; Tampa just marched up and down the field all day, and, had they been able to complete passes in the red zone, some of those four FGs are TDs, and this game isn't even close. Tampa faced 16 third downs and got 11 conversions, which is patently ridiculous. I just don't know how KC's pass rush didn't stop that.

No mention of Winston's great comic moment, literally just dropping the ball when passing on the Bucs' first drive? Mike Glennon did the same thing a few years back. Must be something in the water supply in Tampa.

Felt like Tampa simply played relatively solid football, the Chiefs didn't capitalize on the few opportunities Winston invariably gives other teams during games, and KC was basically asleep for most of the game.

"Three Bears' Porridge Deep Balls" is both a great description of Winston's deep ball accuracy issues, and also coincidentally the name of my new NFL Films-only indie rock cover band. Look for our new album, "The Atmun Wnid is a Raiderjoe", coming soon.

21
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:56pm

No mention of Winston's great comic moment, literally just dropping the ball when passing on the Bucs' first drive?

Alas, that happened during the ten minutes I was in the kitchen eating dinner. I didn't see the highlight until much later.

Felt like Tampa simply played relatively solid football, the Chiefs didn't capitalize on the few opportunities Winston invariably gives other teams during games, and KC was basically asleep for most of the game.

That's exactly how I'd describe this game. The Chiefs played the flattest I've seen them play this year; just no spark there at all, particularly on defense. Both teams sort of meandered up and down the field, then stalled out just when they looked like they were getting somewhere.

Must be bizarre for you to see Chris Conte come up with two huge positive plays in successive weeks.

44
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:41pm

Actually, the thing I found genuinely hilarious about that Conte play yesterday was he utterly blew his coverage a play or two before that when he didn't get over fast enough, and the Chiefs WR caught a deep ball down the right sideline. He had a horrible play, then he had the pick for a good play. Likewise, his pick-six last week? The play right before that Conte utterly whiffed on a tackle on a running play and looked utterly stupid, then did something good. It's not like Chris Conte is inherently awful all the time, it's just that's he's awful consistently enough to be a huge liability, whether or not QBs throw the ball right into his hands two weeks in a row.

16
by EricL :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:46pm

If there's ever been a play that shows how Russell Wilson's 2nd baseman's training pays off, it's that throw to Graham in the clip above.

It is much harder to throw away from your body's direction vs. across it and not have your body's momentum affect the throw.

19
by James-London :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:53pm

"In an hour, Ben Roethlisberger will have 10 wins at Browns Stadium, tying Derek Anderson for most wins by a QB. Ben plays there once a year."

That tweet should be on the reverse of 'Browns QBs' T-Shirt.
Poor Cleveland.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

20
by RoninX :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 12:53pm

After watching the Seahawks struggle so much in the red zone this year (despite a healthy Graham and an improving OL), I'm going to be very curious to take a look at how the updated offense DVOA stats map to TD efficiency. The Seahawks will presumably continue to move up on the offensive side of things, get their red zone efficiency remains in the bottom tier (21 of 32) at 51%.

25
by Southern Philly :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:06pm

"Seahawks go back up top 13-7 on an all-time great Russell Wilson touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham."

Hyperbole alert.

29
by EricL :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:14pm

Not as much as you think. There might be two or three QBs in the league, tops, that can make that throw.

31
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:21pm

It's what makes him so dangerous. DBs think he can't get the ball downfield accurately from the position he is in, and, time after time, the ball comes out in a flash, on target, well downfield.

53
by Southern Philly :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:08pm

So you think that's one of the greatest TD throws you'll ever see?

60
by Joe Pancake :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:59pm

I'll say this about it: It was one of the *least likely* touchdown passes you will ever see.

It wasn't flashy but the degree of difficulty was insanely high, and 99.9% of the time you see that play the quarterback is throwing it out of bounds. I was amazed he even tried to throw it downfield, let alone putting it in the perfect spot for Graham to catch it and run.

68
by Perfundle :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:50pm

I also wonder if the slight inaccuracy on the throw helped turn it into a touchdown. It was thrown a bit behind Graham, and he had to reach back to get it. The spin move that Graham did as a result perfectly spun him out of Watkins' grasp.

89
by Southern Philly :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:07pm

I'm not denying it was a good play, but "all timer" is over the top.

110
by EricL :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 10:01pm

"greatest" is a pretty vague term, but I will say it's one of the most physically difficult, unlikely throws I've ever seen. "Amazing" might be a better word than "greatest."

Very few QBs would even attempt that throw, let alone do so as if it was second nature.

116
by theslothook :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 12:48am

I didn't see the play or the game, but this thread made me go and watch for myself. Frankly, the throw was pretty impressive but in terms of jaw dropping? Frankly, though it was probably a worse throw - the Wilson 2 pt conversion against the Packers was more jawdropping than this was.

132
by Perfundle :: Tue, 11/22/2016 - 4:20pm

Well that one was impressive in a completely different way than the Graham touchdown. First, it was infinitely more crucial than Graham's. It was also more about the defender messing up than the QB making a good throw (Watkins messed up too, but the TD wasn't the most impressive part of the play).

I just checked and Seattle has gone 1-6 on 2-pt conversions since that one, no surprise considering how bad Seattle is in the red zone.

34
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:28pm

Indeed, in more ways than one.

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The standard is the standard!

32
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:25pm

Steelers- Browns

3 thoughts, post-mortem

1) Tomlin remains clueless, arrogant, etc.
See pre-half-time decision with clock, not kicking FG, etc.

2) BigBen continues to get roughed/abused and the refs do nothing
see Danny Shelton

3) Lawrence Timmons (not an OLB) and James Harrison (old, OLB)
are both better pass-rushers than Jarvis Jones (1st round draft bust, benchwarmer/waterboy)

Thoughts non Steeler related

Steve Smith - catch of the year

Xavier Rhodes- looking like the 2nd best player in his draft class

Leveon Bell- hope you had him in a PPR league

Catch rule- gotta get changed. If you don't take it back to the bench and have a crowbar used to take it out of your hands, it's a drop. If you go to the ground, you have to hold onto it through an 8 hour sleep.

Bruce Arians- I hope this isn't an Urban Meyer type thing

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The standard is the standard!

49
by jtr :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 1:55pm

Totally agree about Tomlin at the end of the half. I was screaming at my TV to just kick the field goal. Between this and the two point conversion thing, he tends gets way to aggressive at the most random times. Against a lousy team like the Browns, you want to just play boring low-variance football.

As far as Steelers OLB's go, Timmons has certainly shown some edge rush chops over the course of his career. He looks a step slower this year and it's showing sometimes in coverage. A full-time move to OLB might be the right move to get the most out of the (limited) front-seven talent on the roster. Nobody is going to be too sad to see fewer snaps for Jones, Moates, or Chickillo. Plus, Vince Williams has played pretty well this year, so it won't be a tremendous dropoff if he becomes the full time starter at ILB.

106
by Raiderjoe :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 8:17pm

Was big Dan of Rhodes in college eehen he played for Florida state
Also liked m. Alexander who is not getting much playing time for team.

55
by kramskoi :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:22pm

Mr. Schatz needs to worry less about a Dallas offense that has tied the all-time record for consecutive 400+ yard performances and more about the perennial fly in the ointment named the Philadelphia Eagles, who are now 4 full games behind division leader Dallas...but are likely to still be number one when the new ratings are issued. The number 2 FO defense...came...saw and were put away quite handily and if not for Crawford accidentally jabbing to Flacco's facemask, might have won this game by 14 or more points. Baltimore never recovered from Dallas' conversion of 1st and 30. So who's the next number one run defense that is supposed to stop the Cowboys? Elliot might have come three shy of 100 but he had 127 all-purpose yards.

57
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:26pm

lol

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The standard is the standard!

77
by Led :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:13pm

I'm really enjoying and admiring this Cowboys team, which is something I could never have imagined saying. I also don't root for any organized football team, since I'm a Jets fan (hat tip to Will Rogers). So I'm begging you not to call down the Football Outsiders Message Board Curse.

80
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 5:25pm

If you don't like watching the Cowboys offense, well, I just don't see how you like football. I've enjoyed the Cowboys' failings for the past 20 years, because I dislike the owner, but it's just great to see a team constructed around superior offensive line play have this level of success, and the fact that Jerel had to be physically restrained from picking Johnny Manziel instead of one of the o-linemen would make it possible for me to thoroughly enjoy a Cowboys championship. I'm rooting for them, except for the game against the Vikings in 10 days, but I'm pretty sure they'll run well enough against the Vikings to win pretty comfortably, as the Vikings stuggle to get to 13 points.

91
by Lance :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:12pm

I'll agree with Will, even if my longtime Cowboys-homer status makes the sentiment less interesting. Still, as a guy who grew up watching a different style of football-- and who has come to sort of loathe the more modern style of the game (e.g. 4- and 5-WR sets on all downs, the disappearance of the FB, the TE regularly lining up wide, and the ease with which even an average QB can pass for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs in a season), seeing this version of the Cowboys is sort of fun.

And yes, Weill, given how horrible Jerry has been in the past, it is nice that this team is having success precisely because they drifted differently than what he wanted. If only he would learn his lesson and stay out of the personnel business. Alas!

59
by Denverite :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 2:59pm

Why was Andy Reid running dives into the line inside the five down by 9 with three minutes left? By my count, that cost the team about 40 seconds, and that 40 seconds is the difference between needing to gain about 40 yards and leave time to kick with 8 seconds left (no chance), and needing to gain it and leave time to kick with 48 seconds left.

61
by Tomlin_Is_Infallible :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:17pm

Is this rhetorical?
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The standard is the standard!

62
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:20pm

Andy Reid-->Clock Management = Superman-->Kryptonite

64
by jtr :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 3:29pm

At Superman KNOWS that he should try to avoid Kryptonite. Andy Reid just keeps obliviously dialing up the staple plays of his efficient five-yards-at-a-time offense as if there's no problem that game situation that can't be won with a well-designed screen pass.

70
by theslothook :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 4:26pm

Ive wondered if this deficiency alone is enough to keep Reid from being a deserving hall of famer. Im personally on the fence.

71
by Andrew Potter :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 4:27pm

Cos he's a scorpion, and the game clock is his frog.

96
by Joe Pancake :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:36pm

You are talking about a guy whose team had the ball down 10 on their own 21 with 5:40 left, and it took them nearly 2.5 minutes to move the ball across *midfield*, in the Super Bowl!

Donovan McNabb took a lot of grief for that, but he actually bailed Andy Reid out by throwing a 30-yard touchdown, with just under two minutes left. Who knows how long it would have taken them to score without that?

Andy Reid has the reputation as the worst clock manager in the game, and it's not for nothing.

73
by DavidL :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 4:50pm

The Eagles' wide receivers are so bad at catching the football that I suspect they have negative DVOA against Hole In Zone.

74
by gomer_rs :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 4:57pm

They definitely have a negative DVOA against Lined Up Correctly.
_______

I remember when they were the Sea-chickens.

90
by bubqr :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:08pm

I'm not sure any stat can highlight how bad Agholor has been this season. I can't recall an Eagles WR I've hated as much as I hate him in recent memory. I miss Riley Cooper.

100
by DavidL :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 6:48pm

It's not what you'd call a football stat, but Google hits for "Todd Pinkston" and "James Thrash"?

107
by billprudden :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 9:15pm

Whenever criticism vs. McNabb and/or Reid comes calling, I always remember what they accomplished with Pinkston and Thrash as starters...

108
by Will Allen :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 9:19pm

Don't disrespect forget FredEX!!!

109
by tuluse :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 9:28pm

[same face and voice as Blondie watching the battle for the bridge]

I've never seen such a good nickname wasted so badly.

114
by jonsilver :: Mon, 11/21/2016 - 11:37pm

the judge: "Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez..."
Blondie: "...otherwise known as "The Rat..."

134
by bubqr :: Wed, 11/23/2016 - 11:19am

Both were not bad WRs, just #4/#5 receivers who should never be starters. Agholor is a terrible football player.

136
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by gusto :: Sun, 12/25/2016 - 12:36pm