Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

13 Nov 2014, 12:44pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Race for No. 1 Pick

Analyzing the latest FO playoff odds and what they say about the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

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11 Nov 2014, 06:44pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Now that we have ten weeks of data to work with, even big wins only lead to small moves in the DVOA rankings. Plus: Why schedule strength so far helps both Andrew Luck and Marshawn Lynch make their MVP cases.

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208 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2014, 5:50pm by Pat

11 Nov 2014, 02:11pm by Aaron Schatz

Injury Update: Willis, Mebane to IR

Wow, the NFC West just got crushed this weekend. You already knew about Carson Palmer tearing his ACL. This morning, we have reports that the Seahawks have lost defensive tackle Brandon Mebane for the year with a torn hamstring. He's probably the most important player in their front seven. And there are reports that Patrick Willis' turf toe is so bad that the 49ers will be forced to put him on injured reserve. Ugh. The Seahawks have Kevin Williams to plug in for Mebane, but depth is a serious problem on that defensive line.

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3 comments, Last at 11 Nov 2014, 6:28pm by Sisyphus

08 Nov 2014, 04:28pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Over .500... and in Trouble

ESPN asked me to go through our playoff odds and talk about which teams over .500 were most likely to fall short of the playoffs. Remember, since there's no NFC South team currently with a winning record, there are only 11 spots for 17 winning teams. This features updated playoff odds which incorporate the Thursday night Cleveland-Cincinnati game.

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06 Nov 2014, 06:50pm by Aaron Schatz

Thursday Night Football is Easy to Hate but Hard to Defeat

We all know that Thursday night football feels extra sloppy. And it logically seems like it should be extra sloppy, since players haven't had a full week to recover from Sunday's games. But as others have done before, Kevin Seifert has run numbers showing that Thursday games do not in fact feature more injuries or less scoring. There are more turnovers, but also fewer penalties and the same number of dropped passes as in other games.

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11 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2014, 11:08pm by jebmak

04 Nov 2014, 07:39pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 9 DVOA Ratings

Miami makes a big move up to No. 3 with the strongest single-game DVOA of the year, just one of many teams where FO stats and conventional wisdom disagree in 2014.

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109 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2014, 2:38pm by The Hypno-Toad

01 Nov 2014, 01:05pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Denver Performing at a Historic Level

A look at Denver's historically high DVOA ratings, compared to where New England is right now. This is the largest gap ever between Peyton Manning's team and Tom Brady's team before a game between the two.

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2 comments, Last at 02 Nov 2014, 8:59pm by Vandal

31 Oct 2014, 12:07pm by Aaron Schatz

Houston Cougars Believe They Know How to Make Their Own Luck

University of Houston head coach Tony Levine disagrees with statisticians about the random nature of turnovers, and has tried to build his team's strategy around winning the turnover margin consistently. Is this truly possible, or have the Cougars just had two lucky years?

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17 comments, Last at 02 Nov 2014, 10:49pm by Whatev

28 Oct 2014, 06:40pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 8 DVOA Ratings

Five teams in the NFL are 6-1 or 6-2. One of those teams, Denver, ranks among the best teams we've ever tracked. None of the other four teams even rank in the DVOA top ten right now. Why not?

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139 comments, Last at 04 Nov 2014, 10:39am by mitch

28 Oct 2014, 04:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Tampa Trades Barron to Rams, Casillias to Pats

Tampa Bay is your one team active at the trade deadline, trading safety Mark Barron to St. Louis for fourth- and sixth-round picks, and backup linebacker Jonathan Casillas to the Patriots for... oh, probably not much, but it isn't announced yet. Barron is the big deal here. Really, if I ran an NFL team I would happily trade a fourth and a sixth to get a guy who just two years ago was the No. 7 overall pick in the whole draft... and who has been completely misused by his current head coach. Mark Barron is a strong safety. He belongs in the box. He is not your Cover-2 deep guy.

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19 comments, Last at 31 Oct 2014, 11:02am by dryheat