Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Mar 2015, 10:50am by Aaron Schatz

Patrick Willis Will Announce Surprise Retirement

All reports now seem to be pointing to 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis retiring later this week. Willis has dealt with injuries over the last couple years, but that is apparently not the reason; instead, some reports say he's had a "religious awakening" and doesn't want to play anymore.

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48 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:26pm by bloggesrdog

07 Mar 2015, 10:41am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: The Case for Trading Drew Brees

A couple weeks ago in a look at bold moves teams could make in the NFC South, I threw out a quick mention of the idea that the Saints might look to trade Drew Brees and become the NFL's first tanking experiment. Today's article for ESPN fleshes that idea out a bit more with a point-counterpoint of why the Saints should trade Brees to tank, and why tanking wouldn't work in the NFL.

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15 comments, Last at 18 Mar 2015, 11:41am by KilsonFlob

06 Mar 2015, 12:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Bears Deal Brandon Marshall to Jets

The Bears are trading wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Apparently, the only cost is a fifth-round pick. Yes, Marshall is 30, and he's mercurial, but is he really such a huge problem since he figured out how to handle his mental health issues? Nobody wanted to give Chicago more than a fifth-round pick for this guy? Kansas City, maybe? Meanwhile, the Jets are building a nice group of receivers for nobody to throw to. This probably means Percy Harvin gets cut, and next year's group will be Marshall, Eric Decker, and Jeremy Kerley, with Jace Amaro at tight end.

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87 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:27pm by bloggesrdog

04 Mar 2015, 01:48pm by Aaron Schatz

Vikings Deal Matt Cassel to Bills

Well, the Bills certainly are tired of being ignored in the headlines. Second day, second trade. They will send those infamous "undisclosed draft picks" to Minnesota for Matt Cassel. Cassel is the very definition of a replacement-level quarterback and will replace Kyle Orton, who was slightly better than that. Have fun throwing endless screen passes to Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy, Matthew.

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70 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:27pm by bloggesrdog

27 Feb 2015, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

The Combine Survivor Effect

For years now, analytics people have been attempting to find some sort of correlation between NFL combine results and success in the league, so we can use the combine to provide some guidance on who should be drafted, and when. For the most part, these studies fail to find any connection. Even when we play around with combine results here at FO, we don't really get good forecasts unless we blend them with college game stats, as in Playmaker Score and SackSEER. This is a really interesting theory from Brian Burke over at Advanced Football Analytics explaining why this is.

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3 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

23 Feb 2015, 12:45pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: 2015 RB Speed Scores

Here are your Speed Scores for running backs who ran the 40 at the 2015 combine. Matt Waldman fave Karlos Williams is this year's Speed Score champ and a big-time sleeper. Melvin Gordon did fine. Colorado State's Dee Hart is undraftable.

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23 Feb 2015, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Four Downs: NFC South

Winston or Mariota? How about neither? If Lovie Smith and the Bucs are smart, they'll try to trade out of the first overall pick.

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46 comments, Last at 02 Mar 2015, 1:12pm by tuluse

16 Feb 2015, 05:45pm by Aaron Schatz

Introducing Expected Contract Value

Great series over the past week on the website OvertheCap.com featuring a new metric by Bryce Johnston. The idea here is to come up with a metric for measuring the value of a contract that gives us the most accurate accounting of how much of the contract is likely to be earned by the player. Johnston used regression analysis to determine that roughly 80 percent of the decision-making about when to cut NFL players is driven only by the numbers of the contract, not the actual value of the player.

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18 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

13 Feb 2015, 07:25pm by Aaron Schatz

Want to Help FO? It's Guest Column and Extra Points Submission Time!

Hey, readers. I just wanted to remind everyone that the offseason is the best time for Football Outsiders to be running guest columns. You can submit your ideas or rough drafts to us at mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com. We're looking for deep stat analysis and new ideas or theories, although we're willing to look past that for excellent film analysis or Tanier-level humor. Please excuse the fact that we're sometimes very slow to respond to e-mails. We do get to them all, we promise.

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09 Feb 2015, 07:09pm by Aaron Schatz

NFL Films Founder Ed Sabol Dead at 98

Sabol was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011 and was given a Lifetime Achievement Emmy in 2003. His son Steve, of course, passed away due to brain cancer two years ago.

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7 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog