Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Feb 2015, 05:45pm by Aaron Schatz

Introducing Expected Contract Value

Great series over the past week on the website OvertheCap.com featuring a new metric by Bryce Johnston. The idea here is to come up with a metric for measuring the value of a contract that gives us the most accurate accounting of how much of the contract is likely to be earned by the player. Johnston used regression analysis to determine that roughly 80 percent of the decision-making about when to cut NFL players is driven only by the numbers of the contract, not the actual value of the player.

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17 comments, Last at 24 Feb 2015, 2:33pm by Never Surrender

13 Feb 2015, 07:25pm by Aaron Schatz

Want to Help FO? It's Guest Column and Extra Points Submission Time!

Hey, readers. I just wanted to remind everyone that the offseason is the best time for Football Outsiders to be running guest columns. You can submit your ideas or rough drafts to us at mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com. We're looking for deep stat analysis and new ideas or theories, although we're willing to look past that for excellent film analysis or Tanier-level humor. Please excuse the fact that we're sometimes very slow to respond to e-mails. We do get to them all, we promise.

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09 Feb 2015, 07:09pm by Aaron Schatz

NFL Films Founder Ed Sabol Dead at 98

Sabol was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011 and was given a Lifetime Achievement Emmy in 2003. His son Steve, of course, passed away due to brain cancer two years ago.

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7 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog

09 Feb 2015, 12:48pm by Aaron Schatz

MMQB: The Super Bowl According to Tom Brady

Good MMQB today by Peter King, in-depth interviews as Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady review their strategy going into the comeback drives in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIX. Among the tidbits: they basically realized the only way to beat the Seahawks was death by a thousand paper cuts. Also, updates on the various cheating scandals around the league and whether Darren Sharper should cause us to question the Hall of Fame standards which state players should be considered for football only.

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2 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog

03 Feb 2015, 04:39pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Madden 15 Ultimate Team for Super Bowl XLIX

Here's our announcement of the four men who starred in Super Bowl XLIX and will be new Football Outsiders-branded elite players for Madden 15 Ultimate Team this weekend. (Click to read more.)

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1 comment, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:30pm by bloggesrdog

29 Jan 2015, 03:27pm by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XLIX Preview

Possibly the closest Super Bowl matchup in history also poses the question: how much does it mean when certain aspects of an NFL team improve dramatically in the second half of the season?

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277 comments, Last at 01 Feb 2015, 6:56pm by BigPoppa

28 Jan 2015, 04:47pm by Aaron Schatz

B.S. Report: Aaron Schatz on Super Bowl XLIX

Hey, kids, it's my annual pre-Super Bowl numbers breakdown with Bill Simmons on the B.S. Report. This time, the Patriots aren't favored to win the game. Well, not by us, anyway. 50-50 all the way! We also talk about that other thing, so if you don't want to hear me say the same things I've been saying on Twitter about that thing, don't listen.

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28 Jan 2015, 04:16pm by Aaron Schatz

Key and Peele East-West Bowl III

HELL to the YES. Featuring guest stars!

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8 comments, Last at 01 Jun 2015, 3:58am by loveworth1

28 Jan 2015, 01:08pm by Aaron Schatz

Kickers Are Forever

A good feature on Five Thirty-Eight about the gradual, unstoppable, constant improvement of NFL kickers when it comes to field-goal accuracy. The research points out that many of our fourth-down models are actually outdated because they underestimate the odds of hitting a long field goal. Of course, this also makes punting from the opponent's 35 look even more stupid.

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49 comments, Last at 01 Jun 2015, 4:04am by loveworth1

27 Jan 2015, 05:40pm by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XLIX's Insane Penalty Stats

Seattle and New England were among the most penalized teams in the NFL this year, and among the teams with the fewest penalties on their opponents. But the gap between Seattle and the rest of the NFL on that latter number is a bit nuts.

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27 comments, Last at 31 Jan 2015, 8:47pm by RickD