19 Nov 2014, 01:15pm by Aaron Schatz
Can't believe I missed this when Nate Silver threw it up last week, since it is one of my favorite subjects. I love to discuss expansion possibilities, and I feel bad for cities that don't get to have NFL football. But I also think the logistics of a London franchise would be awful. Silver here tries to estimate the NFL fan base of two dozen different possible expansion markets and points out what I think is mind-numbingly obvious. If you want to expand to another country, we happen to have two very nice countries directly to the north and south of us that already have larger established football fanbases.
42 comments, Last at 01 Jun 2015, 5:46am by loveworth1
19 Nov 2014, 01:09pm by Aaron Schatz
Long article today by Richard Deitsch asking if advanced stats will ever be used on NFL broadcasts. Includes a lot of interview with me, since this question is a passion of mine. To summarize my feelings on the issue: 1) The goal is really not getting advanced stats onto game broadcasts, but rather to get commentators to understand the ideas behind those stats; 2) studio shows are a better place for advanced stats than broadcasts themselves; 3) I'm available.
22 comments, Last at 01 Jun 2015, 5:46am by loveworth1
18 Nov 2014, 08:03pm by Aaron Schatz
Denver is still No. 1, but as the weakest first-place team in DVOA history. Tampa Bay is almost the strongest last-place team in DVOA history. And Arizona is still inexplicably No. 15 at 9-1. Ball of confusion: that's what DVOA is today. Hey hey.
185 comments, Last at 25 Nov 2014, 3:20am by ronnyo
14 Nov 2014, 07:13pm by Aaron Schatz
Information on games we are seeking from 1986 and 1987. (Click to read more.)
11 comments, Last at 02 May 2015, 5:42am by loveworth
13 Nov 2014, 12:44pm by Aaron Schatz
Analyzing the latest FO playoff odds and what they say about the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.
11 Nov 2014, 06:44pm by Aaron Schatz
Now that we have ten weeks of data to work with, even big wins only lead to small moves in the DVOA rankings. Plus: Why schedule strength so far helps both Andrew Luck and Marshawn Lynch make their MVP cases.
208 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2014, 5:50pm by Pat
11 Nov 2014, 02:11pm by Aaron Schatz
Wow, the NFC West just got crushed this weekend. You already knew about Carson Palmer tearing his ACL. This morning, we have reports that the Seahawks have lost defensive tackle Brandon Mebane for the year with a torn hamstring. He's probably the most important player in their front seven. And there are reports that Patrick Willis' turf toe is so bad that the 49ers will be forced to put him on injured reserve. Ugh. The Seahawks have Kevin Williams to plug in for Mebane, but depth is a serious problem on that defensive line.
3 comments, Last at 11 Nov 2014, 6:28pm by Sisyphus
08 Nov 2014, 04:28pm by Aaron Schatz
ESPN asked me to go through our playoff odds and talk about which teams over .500 were most likely to fall short of the playoffs. Remember, since there's no NFC South team currently with a winning record, there are only 11 spots for 17 winning teams. This features updated playoff odds which incorporate the Thursday night Cleveland-Cincinnati game.
06 Nov 2014, 06:50pm by Aaron Schatz
We all know that Thursday night football feels extra sloppy. And it logically seems like it should be extra sloppy, since players haven't had a full week to recover from Sunday's games. But as others have done before, Kevin Seifert has run numbers showing that Thursday games do not in fact feature more injuries or less scoring. There are more turnovers, but also fewer penalties and the same number of dropped passes as in other games.
11 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2014, 11:08pm by jebmak
04 Nov 2014, 07:39pm by Aaron Schatz
Miami makes a big move up to No. 3 with the strongest single-game DVOA of the year, just one of many teams where FO stats and conventional wisdom disagree in 2014.
109 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2014, 2:38pm by The Hypno-Toad