12 Aug 2014, 01:48pm by Aaron Schatz
Everyone thinks of San Francisco as one of the NFL's most dominant teams, so why does FOA 2014 only give them a 51 percent chance to make the playoffs this year? In an ESPN Insider article, I explain a bit about why projections are so grouped around 8-8, and why the 49ers' defense may not be as good as we think -- at least through the end of October.
13 comments, Last at 22 Dec 2014, 9:38pm by dongdong31
11 Aug 2014, 02:48pm by Aaron Schatz
I can't, I won't, and I don't stop... promoting Football Outsiders Almanac 2014. Here's a very long appearance on the Advanced Football Analytics podcast hosted by Dave Collins. Among the subjects we cover: the decision to list "edge rushers" as their own position in this year's book, how we determine replacement level, the concept of "Platonic team quality," difficulties with the game charting project, and my hatred of illegal celebration penalties.
1 comment, Last at 11 Aug 2014, 8:06pm by HumanitarianDave
11 Aug 2014, 12:03pm by Aaron Schatz
This week, Peter King looks at the Johnny Manziel circus in Cleveland, Tennessee's attempt to fix Jake Locker's accuracy, and all those flags from the first weekend of preseason football. Plus, lots of Football Outsiders-related stuff, including a plug for FOA 2014 plus Peter's travels with our former colleague Andy Benoit. It's milk-tastic!
5 comments, Last at 11 Aug 2014, 6:22pm by mehllageman56
07 Aug 2014, 05:20pm by Aaron Schatz
How defenders' poor hands made Ryan Tannehill look better than he truly was in 2013, while inexperienced receivers and poor timing made Tom Brady look worse than he truly was.
19 comments, Last at 24 Aug 2015, 11:25pm by Floon
07 Aug 2014, 11:34am by Aaron Schatz
Talking about the Falcons of the last few years -- not as good as their record for a few years, then better than their record in 2013 -- with Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
1 comment, Last at 07 Aug 2014, 1:34pm by bingo762
06 Aug 2014, 03:01pm by Aaron Schatz
Why our no-huddle offense numbers aren't fully trustworthy. (Click to read more.)
2 comments, Last at 07 Aug 2014, 2:19am by Jerry
06 Aug 2014, 09:39am by Aaron Schatz
Hey, kids! Podcasts! Yesterday I recorded an episode of the Sports-Casters podcast to promote Football Outsiders Almanac 2014. This one actually got deep into a discussion of the different kinds of NFL analytics and how Football Outsiders differs from other site. Hopefully I didn't get loopy and say anything obnoxious. I'll have a couple of other podcast links in the next couple days that we'll add to this post as we continue to promote the book.
05 Aug 2014, 12:12pm by Aaron Schatz
Part II of II. We actually measured here the chances of first-place teams dropping to 6-10 or worse, not their chances of finishing fourth this year, which does explain how Indianapolis can end up second on this list. Let's be honest -- even if they somehow flop to 6-10, the Colts aren't finishing last in that division. The clearly most likely first-to-worst team is Carolina.
9 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2014, 1:53pm by morganja
04 Aug 2014, 12:19pm by Aaron Schatz
Time for another edition of America's favorite game show, "try to figure out the language of new NFL contracts." Right now, all we know is that Andy Dalton has been signed to a "six-year, $115 million" extension. How is it structured? Can the Bengals get out of it if Dalton doesn't improve his game? How does this contract compare to the one Colin Kaepernick recently signed? Right now, who knows? Bring on the leaked details, baby.
28 comments, Last at 05 Aug 2014, 3:47pm by commissionerleaf
01 Aug 2014, 03:20pm by Aaron Schatz
Some roster changes here at Football Outsiders. (Click to read more.)
6 comments, Last at 02 Aug 2014, 2:21pm by Rivers McCown