Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 Oct 2005, 06:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Bucs Deal for Tim Rattay

Hey kids, the trade deadline means everyone deal your backup quarterback! This is an excellent deal for Tampa Bay. Remember, Rattay was in the top ten of DVOA for quarterbacks last year until the injuries came, and the Bucs of 2005 are in a much better situation than the 49ers of 2004. Also today, the Chargers dealt Chet Lemon to the Dolphins for A.J. Feeley. Wait, you say Chet Lemon was a baseball player? Hmmm.

» More...

35 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2005, 8:28pm by Mr Shush

18 Oct 2005, 04:25pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks. New England and Philadelphia move down. Jacksonville, Dallas, and Miami move up. Miami? That's explained as part of the famous commentary for the math-o-phobic available at FOXSports.com. Also, the latest info on that hot series from DC Comics, Infinite Crisis: The 2005 Minnesota Vikings.

» More...

210 comments, Last at 17 Dec 2005, 9:43pm by Bonnie Smith

18 Oct 2005, 11:21am by Aaron Schatz

Matt Leinart's Big Score

Josh Levin of Slate argues that Matt Leinart will be a failure as an NFL quarterback. "Leinart looks more like Jason White or Danny Wuerffel—a gutsy Heisman winner who doesn't have the physical ability to succeed when the guys on defense get bigger and faster." I respectfully disagree. Personally, I'll take pocket presence, decision-making skills, and the ability to thread a perfect fade pass on fourth-and-8 to save an undefeated season over a stronger arm and shifty scrambling.

» More...

57 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2005, 2:10pm by Pat

17 Oct 2005, 03:30pm by Aaron Schatz

2005 Quick Reads: Week 6

This week in Quick Reads, I've changed the format in response to some of your requests. I'm now once again listing every quarterback, plus the top five RBs and WRs. This week's ratings are topped by a couple of Bengals, while Tommy Maddox's rating will probably surprise you.

» More...

43 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2005, 5:11pm by B

15 Oct 2005, 06:52pm by Aaron Schatz

Batman vs. The Patriots

As we all know, Batman is a master strategist who can defeat any challenge. Therefore, IGN Comics has a regular feature asking readers to explain how Batman would defeat a series of opponents: the sun, the IRS, menopause, Jessica Alba's no-nudity clause, and so forth. Anyway, how would the ultimate loner superhero defeat the ultimate ego-free football team? Check out the surreal diagram from reader number three.

» More...

30 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2005, 8:53pm by Björn

14 Oct 2005, 03:36pm by Aaron Schatz

Football's Hilbert Problems

By now you know the name Ben Alamar: he helped with some of the statistical formulas in PFP 2005 and is involved in PROTRADE. He's also the editor of a new scholarly journal from Berkeley Electronic Press, the Journal of Quantatative Analysis in Sports.

» More...

15 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2005, 2:48pm by Zac

14 Oct 2005, 02:18am by Aaron Schatz

What's Wrong with the Saints?

Everything, actually. Saints weblog "Marchin' In" (written by a FO reader) takes a look at the 52-3 loss to Green Bay and why the conventional wisdom about blame (100% Aaron Brooks, 0% Everyone Else) is a little off.

» More...

14 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2005, 6:10pm by Vince

11 Oct 2005, 06:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 6 DVOA Ratings

Dallas and Seattle move up, Philadelphia and Denver drop, and Cincinnati narrowly remains number one despite a loss. Here are the latest DVOA ratings, with ... Wait a minute, did you say Denver dropped? Didn't they win their fourth straight game? What the hell? All is explained in my infamous commentary for the math-o-phobic featured on FOXSports.com.

» More...

86 comments, Last at 21 Oct 2005, 12:59am by "Andrew"

11 Oct 2005, 03:50pm by Aaron Schatz

Just Catch the Ball

Some folks might remember an article by Kevin Pelton that we ran a few weeks ago, looking at wide receiver drops in terms of drops per pass instead of just total drops. Now, Ben Alamar takes things one step further over at the PROTRADE site, using STATS Inc. data to adjust "drop rate" to remove balls that the quarterback underthrows or overthrows. He also adjusts based on the length of each receiver's routes. The new lists aren't much different than the ones Kevin ran, but there are a few new interesting players.

» More...

34 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2005, 10:08am by tracey

11 Oct 2005, 02:49pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: How to Predict Scores Without Knowing Who's Playing

Another week of TMQ, as Gregg Easterbrook predicts that all games will end 20-17. He also looks in on Mike Nugent (4-for-7, but still better than Doug Brien), addresses the "tuck rule" cancelled safety in the Washington-Denver game, and lambasts the Rams for punting from the Seattle 35-yard line instead of trying a 53-yard field goal. You know, in a dome, with Jeff Wilkins, who has made eight of his last nine attempts over 50 yards. Yep, he's right on that one.

» More...

60 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2005, 5:34pm by Sid