Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Nov 2005, 01:27pm by Aaron Schatz

Arbitrator DOES NOT Reduce T.O.'s Suspension

Hey, remember earlier today when this Extra Point said that T.O.'s suspension was going to be shortened according to a reporter from New York Newsday? Never mind. "Sources have told FOXSports.com that the Eagles have won on all counts of Terrell Owens' grievance hearing against the team. In a 38-page decision, arbitrator Richard Bloch upheld Owens' four-game suspension. In addition, Bloch also ruled that the Eagles do not have to play the All-Pro receiver after the suspension." (Updated: 1:45 pm)

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70 comments, Last at 26 Nov 2005, 2:00pm by Starshatterer

23 Nov 2005, 12:55am by Aaron Schatz

Playing with the Percentages When Trailing by Two Touchdowns

"It is relatively common for football teams to find themselves down by two touchdowns late in the game. If they score a first touchdown then coaching folklore says that the team should go for the extra point at that time. In this paper I will show that this strategy, which appears to be universally used in both the NFL and the NCAA, is incorrect, and that going for the two-point conversion after the first touchdown is nearly always significantly better."

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31 comments, Last at 24 Nov 2005, 11:18pm by Felton

22 Nov 2005, 07:38pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Colts, Schmolts. With eight different teams showing extreme schedule strength adjustments, it's time to take DVOA into the shop for a tune-up. The result is more accurate, both in past years and in 2005. It also moves Indianapolis up to ... second in the FOXSports.com power rankings. Denver readers of FO, your time is now. This week, enjoy commentary for the math-lovin' right here as well as the usual the commentary for the math-o-phobic on FOXSports.com.

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117 comments, Last at 02 Dec 2005, 7:43pm by RBELL

22 Nov 2005, 03:03pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: If a Federal Bureaucracy Ran Sports

Often a play where TMQ complains that the offensive lineman are standing around doing nothing is really just a blown line call. That being said, if Carolina had five guys standing around doing nothing, that's one hell of a blown line call, isn't it? Plus, TMQ one-ups my Mike Vrabel comment by noting that Vrabel is pictured catching a touchdown pass on the cover of the 2005 NFL Record and Fact Book.

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40 comments, Last at 24 Nov 2005, 6:23am by Elton

21 Nov 2005, 04:51pm by Aaron Schatz

2005 Quick Reads: Week 11

Here's the latest edition of Quick Reads, featuring the best and worst DPAR ratings of the week. Somebody had the most valuable game of the season yesterday, but it wasn't Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. It was Drew Brees. The Sage Rosenfels joke originally read "After watching this game, Reform Judaism reconsidering stance on patrilineal descent" but I decided that this was even more obscure than the Bobby Engram Scientology joke from a couple weeks back.

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41 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2005, 8:25pm by Gut of the quantifier

21 Nov 2005, 01:46am by Aaron Schatz

MythBusters: Swing to the Right

How much is Shaun Alexander's success due to having Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson on the left side of the line? Doug Farrar of SEAHAWKS.NET went to check and discovered that in 2005, Alexander is actually running better to the right side. As I pointed out to him when he showed me this article, however, my belief that the left side of the Seattle line is hugely important makes some sense given that Seattle was better running left in both 2003 and 2004.

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9 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2005, 3:44pm by Liam

19 Nov 2005, 04:01pm by Aaron Schatz

Faking Injuries on the No-Huddle

Reader Stan Brown points out this interview with Bill Polian of the Colts. You have to scroll all the way down to get to the question about teams faking injuries on the field in order to slow down the no-huddle offense, but Polian has some interesting comments.

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87 comments, Last at 23 Nov 2005, 1:13pm by DD Ohio

19 Nov 2005, 02:05pm by Aaron Schatz

Bill Simmons: NFL's Contenders and Pretenders

Sorry, Simmons fans, forgot to stick this up yesterday. This is Bill's take on which teams are playoff pretenders and contenders. Tampa Bay officially now has swagger. His take is pretty close to mine, except that I would not list Jacksonville as "the good bad team." I'd list them as "the complete confusing team." And I would list Seattle as one of the favorites. Bill is right -- when the Red Sox and White Sox have won the last two World Series, maybe we shouldn't be obsessing over Seattle's playoff history.

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34 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2005, 3:10pm by Tony

19 Nov 2005, 01:55pm by Aaron Schatz

Game Previews: TB-ATL, IND-CIN

This weekend's two highlighted games share two things in common. First, both games have extra implications for postseason tiebreakers. Second, all four teams have built their records on easy schedules, and feel they have something to prove.

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25 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2005, 10:50pm by ChicagoScott

18 Nov 2005, 07:55pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Mailbag

In this week's mail: The most frequent questions about the Indianapolis schedule anomaly answered, discussion of the Denver secondary, another look at Eli Manning similarity scores, and a list of the worst special teams games of all time.

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46 comments, Last at 24 Nov 2005, 2:06pm by Jeff