Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

01 Aug 2005, 03:08pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Chat at Baseball Prospectus

Here's the transcript of today's chat on BaseballProspectus.com, discussing the 2005 fortunes of numerous teams including the Eagles, Colts, Patriots, Bills, and Packers.

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8 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2005, 9:42pm by someone

29 Jul 2005, 12:18pm by Aaron Schatz

McAllister's Deal Money Well Spent

Um, no. I know McAllister is a nice fellow with a lot of athletic talent, but this is not an economically efficient use of resources. Eight years, $50 million -- which, in reality, is five years, $28 million, still the second-highest RB contract in history. It reduces McAllister's cap figure this year, but the Saints now have a league-average back taking up a big part of their cap for the next few years after 2005.

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93 comments, Last at 14 Jan 2007, 10:29am by someone

28 Jul 2005, 08:58am by Aaron Schatz

Training Camp Postcard: Falcons

No, it is not our intention to link every one of these Peter King postcards, but this one is interesting because somehow Peter King and Len Pasquarelli both wrote about the Falcons on the same day. And yet, they seem to be reporting on two entirely different teams. (The Pasquarelli article is ESPN Insider content.)

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36 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2005, 4:28am by masocc

26 Jul 2005, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz

Winning Formula

Wesleyan kid goes to Australia on a semester abroad and somehow stumbles his way into coaching an amateur American football team called the Kew Colts. 10 years later he's defensive coordinator for the two-time defending Super Bowl champs. Here's a pretty interesting feature on Eric Mangini from the Boston Globe. Among other things, it suggests that the Pats D will become more aggressive with blitzes this season.

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4 comments, Last at 26 Jul 2005, 1:38pm by BBK

25 Jul 2005, 04:52pm by Aaron Schatz

1998 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

Usually at FO we write about the football of today, but we're also busy going through old play-by-play so we can apply our metrics to past seasons and learn more about why teams win and lose. Return with us to that bygone era when the NFL was a tiny league of just 30 teams, when Hall of Famers like Elway, Young, and Emmitt still dominated while Peyton Manning and Tony Gonzalez were but wee lads. Learn why the record-setting Vikings didn't even have the best offense of 1998, and why the 1999 Rams may not have been such a surprise after all. Hint: It ties in with the San Diego chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2005.

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87 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2005, 9:54pm by Björn

15 Jul 2005, 12:36pm by Aaron Schatz

Four Downs: AFC East

What other Buffalo running back left town after a season remarkably similar to Travis Henry's 2004? What are the biggest offensive DVOA turnarounds of the past few years, and could Miami possibly match them? Who will fill the holes in the Jets secondary? Aaron attempts to answer these questions in the latest edition of Four Downs.

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55 comments, Last at 12 Aug 2005, 1:48pm by Led

12 Jul 2005, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Commentary: Overtime Model

C'mon Feel the Math! Our good friend William Krasker is back, using his statistical model to ask the question: Does overtime -- and the presence of a third possible outcome, a tie -- change the optimal strategy for certain situations? The answer: Yes, and it matters more later in the season because teams know how a tie will affect their playoff chances. As an example, Krasker shows how a St. Louis decision to punt in overtime of Week 17 was the wrong decision, even though it would usually be the right decision.

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48 comments, Last at 18 Jul 2005, 11:24pm by Miles

10 Jul 2005, 04:55pm by Aaron Schatz

Cap Cuts vs. Patriots

Lots of websites do a "cap cut all-star team" when they need off-season content, but FOX has done something fun with theirs, comparing the cap cut all-stars to the World Champs position by position and then imagining what a game between the two teams would be like. Two problems: They don't really consider the injury situation with some of the cap cuts like Ty Law and Richie Anderson, and I think the cap cut all-stars would have to make some cap cuts to actually fit under the cap.

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16 comments, Last at 14 Jul 2005, 10:32am by Starshatterer

08 Jul 2005, 10:54am by Aaron Schatz

Jackson Hires Agent of Change

Grady Jackson, long a FO favorite, has hired agent Drew Rosenhaus and is now threatening to hold out of camp because he wants a new contract -- just like his teammate Javon Walker and that other famous Rosenhaus client, Terrell Owens. Now, we're known around here as big supporters of Jackson, even saying that he was deserving of MVP consideration in 2003.

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8 comments, Last at 23 Jul 2005, 3:15pm by DCalla

06 Jul 2005, 05:30pm by Aaron Schatz

New Generation of Backs Ready To Join NFL Elite

In July, the NFL goes on vacation, but NFL fans do not -- because it is time to start thinking fantasy football. No fantasy football position is more important than running back, and in this article from Friday's edition of the New York Sun, Aaron explains why there will be some new names among 2005's NFL rushing yardage leaders. It's your chance to get a sneak peak at some of our fantasy projections and find out why a certain second-year back is featured on the cover of Pro Football Prospectus 2005.

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81 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2005, 4:23pm by jimmy jimmerson