Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Sep 2005, 10:44am by Aaron Schatz

2005 DVOA Projections

Long awaited, never duplicated, here are the 2005 Football Outsiders DVOA projections based on complicated formulas that take into account everything from red zone performance to recent drafts to tenure of coordinators. If they prove accurate, look out for the Carolina Panthers, the Cincinnati Bengals, and -- yes, yet again the numbers love them -- the Tampa Bay Bucs.

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130 comments, Last at 05 Oct 2005, 3:38pm by james

04 Sep 2005, 11:28am by Aaron Schatz

Cuts o' Plenty

Let's see if we can do a quick roundup of the biggest cuts from yesterday's 53-man roster deadline. The Pats cut WR David Terrell. The Eagles cut DE Hugh Douglas and FB Jon Ritchie. The Chiefs ditched fourth-rounder Craphonso Thorpe, and headline writers wept. The Jags cut Fuamatu-Ma'afala, and spell-checkers cheered. San Francisco cut former top Denver pick CB Willie Middlebrooks. Miami cut RB Lamar Gordon, and Denver cut RB Quentin Griffin (following PFP's advice). Oakland cut DE Anttaj Hawthorne (so much for that supposed sixth-round steal) and TE Teyo Johnson (ACHTUNG!

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43 comments, Last at 07 Sep 2005, 12:33pm by Ryan Mc

02 Sep 2005, 07:26pm by Aaron Schatz

Saints to Open in New Jersey

Obviously, there's no way to make this season normal for the New Orleans Saints. But is it heartless for me to say that this is unfair to Philadelphia, Dallas, and Washington? They couldn't find a neutral location for this game? I guess they don't want to make it look like the Saints are leaving Louisiana for good to move to San Antonio or Los Angeles, even though we've known for months, long before the devastation of this hurricane, that the Saints were probably leaving Louisiana for good to move to San Antonio or Los Angeles.

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46 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2005, 10:25pm by Jerry

02 Sep 2005, 11:18am by Aaron Schatz

Defenders Insist Ugly Stats Not a True Sign

I think this article from the San Diego Union-Tribune brings up something that people often forget when discussing preseason results. Yes, the Chargers defense seems to be struggling in the preseason, but there is no game planning. Nobody schemes the opposing quarterback, nobody studies film tendencies, they just throw guys out there and run vanilla strategies to see how they look on the field.

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15 comments, Last at 03 Sep 2005, 10:37pm by Pat

01 Sep 2005, 01:21am by Aaron Schatz

Corey Simon to Colts

Holy Perfect Match, Batman.

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81 comments, Last at 15 Sep 2005, 1:13pm by Jim A

31 Aug 2005, 12:25pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Fantasy Chat at AuctionPlayers.com

Here's the archive of the fantasy football chat I did last night for the website auctionplayers.com. Questions in here about Daunte Culpepper, Matt Hasselbeck, Tiki Barber, LaMont Jordan, and how to deal with our projections when everyone else in your league is using a more standard cheat sheet. Plus, Trent Green's low projection explained.

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2 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2005, 2:31pm by JasonK

29 Aug 2005, 02:10pm by Aaron Schatz

Third Down, Red Zone Efficiency are Significant

No, really? Golly, John, if only one of those "sabermetric converts of baseball" could figure out a method of rating NFL team efficiency that really did judge teams by more than just total yardage. Maybe somebody could measure teams by yards per play, just like you suggest, and give more weight to third downs and red zone performance, and maybe adjust based on game situation and even opponent strength, so that they ended up with a statistic that did a better job of predicting future performance than wins or points or total yards.

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44 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2005, 5:53pm by Pat

29 Aug 2005, 10:58am by Aaron Schatz

Pared Down to Pair

The Miami Dolphins are now considering playing both A.J. Feeley and Gus Frerotte in a quarterback rotation. What on earth is the point of this? Are teams really going to be freaked out trying to prepare for both Feeley and Frerotte? When is the last time a team even tried a quarterback rotation like this? And when's the last time it worked? Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield? (Free registration required.)

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23 comments, Last at 30 Aug 2005, 6:48pm by Oswlek

27 Aug 2005, 11:20am by Aaron Schatz

Ten Undecided Positional Battles

See if you can notice something really weird about this SI.com article by Don Banks. I'll give you a hint: The problem with 1-9 doesn't quite apply to number 10.

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25 comments, Last at 29 Aug 2005, 10:41pm by Björn

25 Aug 2005, 10:27am by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: NFC Preview

Apparently, nobody from FO linked this while I was driving around Dallas on Tuesday. I swear, is there anything in Dallas that is less than an hour away from anything else? Anyway, I haven't had a chance to read this yet but I'm sure it's swell. Apparently, TMQ's opinion of Mr. Ron Mexico is similar to ours.

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119 comments, Last at 04 Sep 2005, 7:50pm by Zac