Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Oct 2005, 03:36pm by Aaron Schatz

Football's Hilbert Problems

By now you know the name Ben Alamar: he helped with some of the statistical formulas in PFP 2005 and is involved in PROTRADE. He's also the editor of a new scholarly journal from Berkeley Electronic Press, the Journal of Quantatative Analysis in Sports.

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15 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2005, 2:48pm by Zac

14 Oct 2005, 02:18am by Aaron Schatz

What's Wrong with the Saints?

Everything, actually. Saints weblog "Marchin' In" (written by a FO reader) takes a look at the 52-3 loss to Green Bay and why the conventional wisdom about blame (100% Aaron Brooks, 0% Everyone Else) is a little off.

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14 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2005, 6:10pm by Vince

11 Oct 2005, 06:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 6 DVOA Ratings

Dallas and Seattle move up, Philadelphia and Denver drop, and Cincinnati narrowly remains number one despite a loss. Here are the latest DVOA ratings, with ... Wait a minute, did you say Denver dropped? Didn't they win their fourth straight game? What the hell? All is explained in my infamous commentary for the math-o-phobic featured on FOXSports.com.

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86 comments, Last at 21 Oct 2005, 12:59am by "Andrew"

11 Oct 2005, 03:50pm by Aaron Schatz

Just Catch the Ball

Some folks might remember an article by Kevin Pelton that we ran a few weeks ago, looking at wide receiver drops in terms of drops per pass instead of just total drops. Now, Ben Alamar takes things one step further over at the PROTRADE site, using STATS Inc. data to adjust "drop rate" to remove balls that the quarterback underthrows or overthrows. He also adjusts based on the length of each receiver's routes. The new lists aren't much different than the ones Kevin ran, but there are a few new interesting players.

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34 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2005, 10:08am by tracey

11 Oct 2005, 02:49pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: How to Predict Scores Without Knowing Who's Playing

Another week of TMQ, as Gregg Easterbrook predicts that all games will end 20-17. He also looks in on Mike Nugent (4-for-7, but still better than Doug Brien), addresses the "tuck rule" cancelled safety in the Washington-Denver game, and lambasts the Rams for punting from the Seattle 35-yard line instead of trying a 53-yard field goal. You know, in a dome, with Jeff Wilkins, who has made eight of his last nine attempts over 50 yards. Yep, he's right on that one.

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60 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2005, 5:34pm by Sid

10 Oct 2005, 06:06pm by Aaron Schatz

2005 Quick Reads: Week 5

Back on FOXSports.com with the latest edition of Quick Reads, featuring the best and worst individual performances of the week. The highlight of this week's column is the worst quarterback performance in the history of FO's advanced metrics.

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18 comments, Last at 11 Oct 2005, 2:39pm by Drew

10 Oct 2005, 11:40am by Aaron Schatz

Rare Free Kick Confuses Even Bironas

Does anyone remember the last time that an NFL team took advantage of the "free kick FG attempt after fair catch of a punt" rule? By the way, the free kick also seemed to have confused Mike Patrick, because at the end of the first half of the Bengals-Jaguars game he said that the Bengals were trying one when they were actually just punting the ball on fourth down.

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45 comments, Last at 07 Jan 2007, 1:52am by Rocco

07 Oct 2005, 11:39pm by Aaron Schatz

Chargers Primed for Long Run of Success

Our new colleague at FOXSports.com, Jay Glazer takes a look at which teams have the best and worst cap situations going into 2006. The Chargers rank third in expected cap room (although this doesn't yet count Drew Brees) and can be very active in next year's free agent market. But even better for San Diego is the fact that Oakland, Denver, and Kansas City rank as three of the five teams with the least amount of expected cap room. Say goodbye to some of those veteran Kansas City and Denver offensive linemen. The Jets will have some pretty tough choices to make as well.

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20 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2005, 3:40pm by ElJefe

07 Oct 2005, 07:22pm by Aaron Schatz

Fear, Not Numbers, Sacked Holmgren

I've angered the Washington fans enough, but let's look at last week's game from the other side? When Seattle picked off Mark Brunell with 49 seconds left, why did Mike Holmgren settle for two running plays and a long field goal instead of passing to get closer? Dave Locke of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has more on coaches who play not to lose. (Thanks to reader Jason Zanon for sending the link.)

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15 comments, Last at 09 Oct 2005, 9:21am by Flux

07 Oct 2005, 10:52am by Aaron Schatz

Punter Isn't Raising Bar on Protection

Scott Player: last devotee of the one-bar helmet.

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15 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2005, 7:47pm by Carl