04 Feb 2005, 12:25pm by Aaron Schatz
Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal discusses the statistical revolution in the NFL and makes clear what I've been saying for two years now. Football stats are the opposite of baseball stats -- the teams are far, far ahead of the journalists and fans when it comes to intricate analysis. After reading some of the numbers Carl quotes about missed tackles and "poor-throw percentages," I went outside and smashed up my car with a baseball bat to try to work out my frustration. FO could be so much better if we had access to information like this.
1 comment, Last at 23 Sep 2006, 7:43pm by Darth Goofy
04 Feb 2005, 01:43am by Aaron Schatz
The New England Patriots have shut down the unstoppable Colts and walked all over the impenetrable Steelers. Now the Philadelphia Eagles will attempt to stand astride their march towards history, yelling "Stop." With help from Michael David Smithâ€™s tape analysis, added notes from resident Eagles fan Mike Tanier, injury analysis from Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews Super Bowl XXXIX.
03 Feb 2005, 11:06am by Aaron Schatz
Doug Drinen is overflowing with neat ideas like a science fair volcano filled with baking soda. Drinen, for those who do not know the name, has done a lot of fantasy-oriented stat analysis and was one of the inspirations behind the creation of Football Outsiders. All week long he's posting football articles at the baseball blog Sabermonics, including the secrets behind the squares contest and a look at whether Super Bowl experience helps you win the Super Bowl (not really).
4 comments, Last at 26 Mar 2007, 11:25pm by 2005 honda vtx 1300
02 Feb 2005, 11:48pm by Aaron Schatz
One of my favorite Super Bowl traditions, the Dr. Z "arrow points one way or the other" positional breakdown. Dr. Z does a very good job this year of going past just the starting eleven on each side, although on defense he's stuck trying to line a 3-4 up against a 4-3. I can't really quibble with his picks, with one exception, but you all know my feelings on the Vinatieri vs. Akers issue regarding kickoffs.
01 Feb 2005, 01:40pm by Aaron Schatz
Gregg Easterbrook gives out his coveted award with shoutouts to both Michael David Smith and myself. The award goes to a New England Patriots player, but those who feel I'm a Patriots homer will be surprised to see the two runners-up suggested by Football Outsiders. Plus, TMQ's pre-Super Bowl analysis, and more on the new Arizona Cardinals logo.
1 comment, Last at 15 Mar 2007, 6:29pm by Capital One Reward
01 Feb 2005, 01:00pm by Aaron Schatz
It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Does DVOA give any value to blocking? Why were defense-oriented teams so bad this year compared to years past? Which correlates better with a team's actual record: Pythagorean wins or estimated wins? Plus, DVOA for every game of the 2004 playoffs.
8 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 7:27am by victory toyota plymouth
31 Jan 2005, 03:30pm by Aaron Schatz
Yowza, it's Football Outsiders day at ESPN Page 2. First, check out this ranking of 80 different Super Bowl quarterbacks based on a complicated statistical formula that takes into account passing, rushing, era, opposing defense, and even clutch second half performance. It all comes out with three Joe Montana games in the top ten and a somewhat surprising number one.
31 Jan 2005, 03:28pm by Aaron Schatz
More from today's attempted takeover of ESPN Page 2, thwarted only by the fact that there are eight -- EIGHT! -- new Page 2 articles today, and the fact that I am not Bill Simmons. This Sunday, we will not only watch the New England Patriots attempt to stake their claim as a great NFL dynasty, we're also going to watch them attempt to complete one of the most dominant playoff runs of all time. Which teams had the greatest marches to the Super Bowl title? Plus, can you name the only team that beat three 12-win teams in one postseason?
31 Jan 2005, 12:23pm by Aaron Schatz
This week, Peter King tells the story of Jack Youngblood, who played in the 1980 Super Bowl on a broken leg. He says this means Terrell Owens is playing. Yes, but playing well? Peter also looks at the amazingly strong market for assistant coaches and says something about coffee.
29 Jan 2005, 07:12pm by Aaron Schatz
I wouldn't watch this cartoon if you are a) a Green Bay fan, b) at work, or c) John Madden. For everybody else, it is funny as hell. Although I wonder if the Tampa Bay fan pictured at the bar is aware that his team is in a different division now... (Hat tip: Off Wing Opinion)