13 Oct 2004, 12:10pm by Aaron Schatz
The latest mathematical analysis of NFL coaching decisions from our friend William Krasker takes a closer look at Seattle's clock management snafus against St. Louis (Russell is right, they should have run three times and punted) as well as the Tuna's controversial decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 43-yard line in the fourth quarter. I also like William's analysis of Denver's 4th-and-goal play at the Carolina goal line.
12 Oct 2004, 01:27pm by Aaron Schatz
Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 5, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week brings us the first adjustments for opponent, and those adjustments separate the top four teams in the league. Philadelphia has played a difficult schedule, New England an average schedule, and Seattle and the Jets easy schedules. Plus more on which teams look better or worse than the stats indicate so far, and TV announcers who can't tell a quarterback from an offensive tackle.
12 Oct 2004, 01:15pm by Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders -- still home of the "official unofficial" TMQ discussion thread. This week, Gregg Easterbrook introduces you to seven guys who get paid for doing nothing, discusses possible football-related presidential debate questions, and ponders the Single Most Fouled Up Play in NFL history. Hint: It involves the Buffalo offensive line.
11 Oct 2004, 12:43am by Aaron Schatz
One of the more popular statistics for rating the best NFL teams, particularly with gambling touts, is yards per point. It's come up on this site recently, particularly regarding the 2001 Patriots. Does it really recognize an offense's ability to efficiently turn drives into touchdowns, or a defense's ability to "bend but not break" by keeping points allowed down even if the other team drives down the field? How does it compare to DVOA, the play-by-play breakdown rating we use here at Football Outsiders?
06 Oct 2004, 11:30pm by Aaron Schatz
In this week's strategy analysis, our buddy William Krasker looks at the "surprise" onside kick by Tennessee, a play also discussed in Tuesday's TMQ. Other issues discussed: Was Jacksonville correct to go for broke with the 40-yard touchdown on 4th-and-1? (All plays look good if they work, but was it the right gamble?) What the heck was Kansas City doing with its timeouts in the first quarter Monday night? And, what I thought might have been the strangest, most pointless decision of the weekend: How wussy was it for San Francisco to punt from the St. Louis 30-yard line?
05 Oct 2004, 01:58pm by Aaron Schatz
In today's TMQ, Gregg Easterbrook wonders at Emmitt Smith's first career pass, celebrates Randy Hymes and Jason Dunn, and properly delivers the Worst Blocks award to the Buffalo offensive line for the play where they stood around with blank looks on their faces while Richard Seymour took the ball from Drew Bledsoe and lumbered into the end zone.
05 Oct 2004, 01:35pm by Aaron Schatz
Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 4, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Which teams are living up to our preseason projections, and which are not? Can looking at the past tell us anything about which teams will improve or fall apart over the course of the season? And does the win at Baltimore mean there is hope for the Kansas City Chiefs?
04 Oct 2004, 02:31pm by Aaron Schatz
Here's today's ESPN Page 2 Snap Judgment, featuring quarterback ratings and comments by yours truly. The other writers ooh and ah over Peyton Manning, but actually Manning didn't have such a great day yesterday. Sure, there is a major difference in the defenses, but who expected that Byron Leftwich would outpass Manning by 100 yards -- and that the Colts would win anyway? Now featuring some additional commentary on how Terrell Owens really has made the difference for Donovan McNabb this season.
01 Oct 2004, 02:15am by Aaron Schatz
Aaron answers your questions about VOA and our other statistics in his biweekly mailbag. Learn how many points a touchback is worth, how Kurt Warner could make our list of the top 10 passing performances since 2000 without throwing a touchdown, and what Aaron thinks of the new book Patriot Reign. Plus, a question about NFC West teams playing better at home leads to some interesting numbers about home field advantage in general.
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30 Sep 2004, 03:40pm by Aaron Schatz
This article from the new Patriots blog Cold Hard Football Facts argues that Drew Bledsoe is not a great quarterback who is now in decline. According to writer Kerry Byrne, he was never a great quarterback to begin with. You know, as I was researching my TNR article on Byron Leftwich, I came across a few comparisons of Leftwich to Bledsoe, physically (in the words of Butch from the Cape: "He's tall, he's got a strong arm"). But mentally, I mean, Leftwich's sense of what's going on around him is miles ahead of Bledsoe.