Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Jan 2005, 03:12pm by Aaron Schatz

Snap Judgment: Wheel of (Playoff) Fortune

This week's ESPN Page 2 Snap Judgment looks at quarterback matchups in the playoffs and features the final 2004 Football Outsiders quarterback ratings. (If you are looking for the rest of the final FO ratings, I'm running a bit behind on getting the DVOA rankings done, so hold on a bit longer...)

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30 Dec 2004, 12:10am by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. What does "variance" represent, and why does it think New Orleans and Jacksonville are the most consistent teams in the NFL? Is "first downs per touch" a valuable stat? Was Philadelphia's offense really that bad last season without Terrell Owens? Which quarterback is set to be the Drew Brees of 2005? Plus, the results from recent seasons when playoff teams rested their starters in the final game might surprise you.

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1 comment, Last at 29 Dec 2005, 2:35pm by Miles

28 Dec 2004, 03:41pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: Nick Saban Undecided

TMQ is back this week with his usual sweet plays and sour plays, good blocks, chickening out, complaints about bad NFC teams in the playoffs, commentary on the instructions inside every NFL helmet, and get ready -- you've all been waiting for this since TMQ moved to NFL.com -- a whole section complaining about Direct TV's Sunday Ticket.

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28 Dec 2004, 03:32pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 16 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 16, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Indianapolis moves into the top spot this week, but the top four teams are all bunched up together, and an unprecedented "sit the starters" effect is about to muck things up completely. Aaron discusses that problem, the continued rise of Buffalo, the unexpected rise of Minnesota, and the best and worst DVOA games of the season.

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28 Dec 2004, 01:57pm by Aaron Schatz

Living Off the Fat of the Land

In Christmas craziness we missed this article by Dr. Z on the growth of defensive linemen across the league. Dr. Z is not a big fan of large linemen, feeling that they lose effectiveness late in games and late in the season. Interestingly, one of the linemen that he criticizes is Grady Jackson of Green Bay, a favorite of Football Outsiders. Green Bay's run defense has declined a bit over the past couple games, although I'm not sure this is because Jackson himself is weaker.

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27 Dec 2004, 02:52pm by Aaron Schatz

Snap Judgment: 20-20 Hindsight

Here's the latest Snap Judgment column at ESPN Page 2, featuring the Football Outsiders QB ratings. This week's ratings flip things around to look at the best and worst receivers. The main column asks if San Diego looks better or worse after their overtime loss to Indianapolis, and which AFC wild card team could actually make some noise. Plus, look who made it into the "Quick Hits" portion of the column!

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26 Dec 2004, 03:01pm by Aaron Schatz

Reggie White Dead at 43

Defensive end Reggie White passed away this morning, only 43 years old, of an apparent heart attack. He did not even live to see his induction into the Hall of Fame, which will surely come next year.

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24 Dec 2004, 12:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Indecision 2004: Race from the NFC Playoffs

Disappointing lawyers from Denver to Buffalo, the U.S. Supreme Court yesterday ordered that the NFL must indeed allow six NFC teams in the playoffs. So if we're going to be stuck with these teams, we might as well figure out which ones are going to sneak in. Aaron tries to figure out which team will wake up tomorrow morning to find a shiny new NFC North division title in its stocking, and also previews Sunday games involving the four NFC South squads.

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22 Dec 2004, 02:01pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Commentary: Week 13-15 Strategy Review

The latest analysis from our friend William Krasker on strategic decisions of the last three weeks. What was Dallas thinking by going for two in the first half of its Week 13 game against Seattle? Why should Minnesota have never even been in a situation where they needed a botched extra point to avoid overtime against Detroit? And what's the deal with Jeff Fisher and onside kicks?

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2 comments, Last at 09 Mar 2007, 12:51am by phentarine

21 Dec 2004, 03:14pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 15 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 15, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. One 12-1 team gets upset, two others almost lose, and the shake-up puts Philadelphia back in the top spot -- but with an asterisk. The best team in a T.O.-less league? Hold on to your seats, Manning bashers, here come the Colts. Also, who is the favorite in the NFC with Owens on the sidelines -- and which AFC team could they possibly upset in the big game?

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