Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Nov 2004, 02:40pm by Aaron Schatz

Snap Judgment: Perpetual Brett

This week's Snap Judgment looks at Brett Favre's consecutive games streak, the worst quarterback of the year, and the Cleveland-Cincinnati silliness. Of more interest to FO readers are my QB ratings, which starts with an extended commentary on Peyton Manning in which I actually run the numbers to find out if Manning is padding his stats or not. Manning haters and Manning lovers will both want a look.

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29 Nov 2004, 02:11pm by Aaron Schatz

MMQB: Unbridled

Peter King thinks we were all too quick to write off the Indianapolis defense (and, to a lesser extent, the Minnesota defense). Yes, they have looked better over the last two weeks -- against Craig Krenzel, Joey Harrington, and Mike McMahon. As Pulp Fiction's The Wolf might say, let's not go pleasuring our respective Cheneys just yet.

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2 comments, Last at 05 Jan 2007, 2:48pm by amputation

28 Nov 2004, 08:42pm by Aaron Schatz

2000 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

These ratings have been listed as "coming soon" longer than the next album by Guns 'n' Roses, but today we finally continue our look back at previous seasons through the lens of DVOA. In 2000, two teams dominated the DVOA ratings, but they didn't meet in the Super Bowl -- because they were both in the same division. Plus, revisit the horribly messed up 2000 Buffalo Bills, the team that may have simultaneously demonstrated the worst special teams and the worst coaching decision in NFL history.

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6 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:03am by ruth van sickle ford

27 Nov 2004, 01:31am by Aaron Schatz

NFC Contenders Look to Clarify Playoff Picture

We know the Eagles and Falcons are in, but who else in the NFC will stand up and claim a playoff spot? In this article from Friday's edition of the New York Sun, Aaron looks at what the Giants, Seahawks, and Vikings have to do in order to take another step towards the postseason this Sunday.

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1 comment, Last at 02 Jan 2007, 11:00am by Skin Tag Removal

24 Nov 2004, 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Commentary: Week 11 Strategy Review

The latest strategic analysis from our friend William Krasker looks at Mike Tice's decision to go for two with the score 19-13 and further discusses his theory on intentionally committing a penalty in the final two minutes. There's also the usual slate of fourth down choices, and although I'm usually in agreement with William that going for it is better, I disagree with the first situation here: Green Bay kicking a field goal on 4th-and-1 from the Houston 21-yard line. Yes, using generic NFL numbers the probability of a win if greater if you take the risk of going for it.

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24 Nov 2004, 12:42pm by Aaron Schatz

Football's Overtime Bias

Yay, more discussion of overtime! We can never get enough of this stuff. This article from Science News says that the coin flip didn't really determine the winner in overtime until they moved kickoffs back to the 30-yard line in 1994. Since then, the team that wins the flip has won more often in overtime. Of course, we have our own idea about how to solve this.

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2 comments, Last at 06 Feb 2007, 8:21am by phenteramine

23 Nov 2004, 02:44pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: Happy Throwback Thanksgiving

Our man TMQ is back with his usual collection of Sweet Plays, Sour Plays, great blocks, and cheerleader photos. He also discusses Throwback Thanksgiving, satellite radio, the Grey Cup, and Aaron Brooks' continued loss of sanity when it comes to certain pass plays.

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23 Nov 2004, 02:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 11, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week the Big Three become the Big Four as the Indianapolis Colts make their case as a top Super Bowl contender. Do they have the defense to do it? And just how amazing was Edgerrin James' day in Chicago? Plus, Buffalo is special, Arizona is not, and Kansas City annoys me in more ways than one.

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23 Nov 2004, 12:37am by Aaron Schatz

FO Chat at Baseball Prospectus

Here is the chat transcript from over at Baseball Prospectus. Thanks to everyone who asked questions!

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5 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 9:21am by honda odyssey go kart

23 Nov 2004, 12:12am by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It’s another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Is Brett Favre better when the Packers are losing, or when they are winning? Why are the Lions ranked so much higher in our offensive rankings than in the NFL's rankings? And is there any way we could measure how well teams defense short passes compared to long passes?

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