Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Jul 2004, 02:00am by Aaron Schatz

Hard Times for the Class of '96

It started as an article about Terrell Owens moving to the Eagles. Look closer, however, and an interesting pattern emerges. Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Keyshawn Johnson, Owens: all of them declined in 2003. What is in store for the greatest wide receiver draft class of all time as they enter their ninth seasons in the NFL?

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22 Jun 2004, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz

Football Outsiders Interview: Mike Eayrs

The Green Bay Packers are one of the teams at the forefront of using statistical analysis to improve on-field performance, and the man who leads that effort is Director of Research and Development Mike Eayrs. Aaron recently had a chance to ask him a few questions about his career and the work he does with the Packers.

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15 Jun 2004, 12:53pm by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Run Defense, Continued

Last week's article on run defense spawned a good discussion that featured a lot of interesting questions. Aaron buries his nose in the Football Outsiders NFL database (don't let it fall into the wrong hands!) to find the answers.

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1 comment, Last at 05 Aug 2005, 8:46pm by David Brude

08 Jun 2004, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

Press Check: Run Defense

In which Aaron attempts, yet again, to pierce a hole in the conventional wisdom among football writers that says run defense is the best indicator of a team's playoff chances.

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18 May 2004, 01:39pm by Aaron Schatz

Rock Cartwright vs. DeShaun Foster

One running back ran for 429 yards on 113 carries. The other running back ran for 410 yards on 107 carries. So how come the player often described as a star of the future is at the bottom of our DVOA ratings, while the third-string ex-fullback is listed as above average? A trip inside the world of DVOA...

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13 May 2004, 02:44am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA Gets Another Upgrade

In our neverending battle to improve our statistics, we present a new iteration of our DVOA formula that correlates even better with wins, scoring, and future performance.

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10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

Even More Complete Failures

And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.

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07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

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28 Apr 2004, 02:32am by Aaron Schatz

You Say Tomato, I Say Future Pro Bowler

At this point, we all know that NFL draft report cards are a bit silly, and that you can't truly judge a draft until those players have been in the league for a couple of years. So instead of a report card, Aaron presents a report about report cards. He's examined eight different sets of draft grades to find out which teams caused the most disagreement among the pundits.

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26 Apr 2004, 06:03am by Aaron Schatz

Pass Defense: Tight Ends, Backs, and Slot Receivers

Two weeks ago, we looked at how defenses did against number one receivers compared to number two receivers. Here's part two of that article, examining how defenses fared in 2003 against the opposition's other receivers. Discover the strange magic of the Indianapolis nickel package, San Diego's weapon against the Chiefs, and the secret Achilles heel of the New England pass defense.

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