07 Jan 2005, 06:30pm by Aaron Schatz
This week will mark the fourth time in thirteen months that the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have faced off. Denver's 2-1, but do they have any chance of making that 3-1? And what chances do the fading Jets have against the surging Chargers? For want of a rotator cuff, the season may be lost. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the AFC wild card contests.
07 Jan 2005, 03:20pm by Aaron Schatz
And the winner of King Kaufman's expert predictions contest is... us! King compared the predictions of 27 experts, plus his own predictions and those of his readers, and the most accurate predictions were from the Football Outsiders staff consensus which correctly chose five division winners and three wild cards, plus we were split on the Colts and we took the Falcons for a wild card instead of the division. King, we'll be working on our plane tickets to St. Louis for that dinner.
07 Jan 2005, 02:53pm by Aaron Schatz
St. Louis may be the worst team to ever make the postseason. Seattle has crumbled since the Rams shocked them in Week 5. Minnesota can't play on grass. Green Bay can't stop opposing quarterbacks. Welcome to the wonderfully mediocre world of the NFC playoffs. With help from Michael David Smith's tape analysis and our Football Outsiders statistics, Aaron previews the NFC wild card contests. Plus, a special bonus, a new cartoon. Warning: Mikes Under Pressure!
05 Jan 2005, 08:29pm by Aaron Schatz
More reviews of the major coaching decisions from our friend William Krasker. Issues analyzed this time include the Jets going for two with a 26-21 lead in St. Louis, Buffalo's field goal from the Pittsburgh 11-yard line leading 17-16, and a couple events from the San Diego-Indianapolis tilt. Plus, when is a Hail Mary better than a last-second field goal try?
05 Jan 2005, 05:41pm by Aaron Schatz
For those who missed it, here is the transcript of my online chat at Baseball Prospectus. No, Washington does not have a "god defense." That's a typo.
05 Jan 2005, 12:52pm by Aaron Schatz
Blogger "3martini" proves that in the NFL, there's no accounting for lack of taste. Too bad he didn't also include "alternate" uniforms, or else this list could have been 25 teams long. The Bengals, of course, are number one. My god, their new uniforms this season are hideous. (Hat tip: Off Wing Opinion)
4 comments, Last at 12 Dec 2006, 1:45pm by Richie
04 Jan 2005, 02:18pm by Aaron Schatz
TMQ is here with his regular season wrap-up, featuring the usual look at great plays and bad plays, and maybe the all-time worst Buffalo chicken-out punt. Gregg also shares my bad feeling about Philadelphia's recent slide, backups or no backups.
04 Jan 2005, 02:13am by Aaron Schatz
New England ranks as the top team of 2004 according to the final Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, by the slimmest of margins over both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. What about the Philadelphia Eagles, who led these ratings for much of the season but have set an NFL record for most apathetic performance over two straight losses? In his weekly commentary, Aaron explores the idea that the Eagles began to fall apart before they sat their starters in Week 16.
1 comment, Last at 10 Apr 2006, 2:33pm by cari arneson
03 Jan 2005, 03:12pm by Aaron Schatz
This week's ESPN Page 2 Snap Judgment looks at quarterback matchups in the playoffs and features the final 2004 Football Outsiders quarterback ratings. (If you are looking for the rest of the final FO ratings, I'm running a bit behind on getting the DVOA rankings done, so hold on a bit longer...)
30 Dec 2004, 12:10am by Aaron Schatz
It's time for another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. What does "variance" represent, and why does it think New Orleans and Jacksonville are the most consistent teams in the NFL? Is "first downs per touch" a valuable stat? Was Philadelphia's offense really that bad last season without Terrell Owens? Which quarterback is set to be the Drew Brees of 2005? Plus, the results from recent seasons when playoff teams rested their starters in the final game might surprise you.
1 comment, Last at 29 Dec 2005, 2:35pm by Miles