Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Oct 2004, 10:48pm by Aaron Schatz

VOA Mailbag

It's another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: What the heck happened to the Green Bay defense, a further explanation of special teams, and a look at the historic ineptitude of the Miami offense. Plus, could it be better for the defense to decline most five-yard penalties?

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20 Oct 2004, 06:49pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: Unpatriotic Comments

For a number of reasons -- fewer TMQ fans reading FO, people losing their desire to talk about TMQ, moving the discussion to Extra Points -- TMQ discussion has severely dropped off around here, but I have a feeling that's going to change with the subject that kicked off Gregg's column this week. Even I'm a little irked at his statement that he's sick of the Patriots, that they get all the lucky breaks, and that they've avoided injuries. The 2003-2004 Patriots get their share of lucky breaks, but no more than any other team (the 2001 Patriots were a different story). Injuries, I mean, huh?

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20 Oct 2004, 06:08pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 6 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 6, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. Think you know which team holds the title "best team with a losing record"? You may be surprised. Plus, our first look this year at the Football Outsiders offensive and defensive line statistics. Who's responsible for New England's decline against the run? Does Indianapolis have the most underrated offensive line in football?

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1 comment, Last at 18 Oct 2005, 10:39pm by Shred Nard

18 Oct 2004, 02:10pm by Aaron Schatz

Snap Judgment: Big Ben

Here are all the Week 6 quarterback ratings and commentary from ESPN Page 2's Snap Judgment, featuring yours truly. This week we ask if Matt Hasselbeck is good enough to win the Super Bowl and if McNabb-to-Owens has become the best QB-WR combination in football, plus I have some extended comments on Ben Roethlisberger and DPAR for each quarterback who played yesterday.

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15 Oct 2004, 10:11am by Aaron Schatz

Mel Kiper Leaves ESPN

Well, here's a shocker. Mel Kiper is being let go by ESPN because they couldn't agree on language in his contract. I assume that Sporting News, SI.com, et al. now go after him, but isn't a large part of Kiper's value his being on set during the draft broadcast?

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15 Oct 2004, 12:59am by Aaron Schatz

Koyaanisqatsi, or Life Out of Balance

It feels like more than ever the NFL is split between teams that can score at will but can't stop anyone, and teams that can play defense but can't score themselves. Are there really that many more unbalanced teams this season than in years past? It depends how you look at it according to Aaron in this article reprinted from Tuesday's edition of the New York Sun. Possibly the first article about the NFL ever inspired by a Philip Glass composition.

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13 Oct 2004, 12:10pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Commentary: Week 5 Strategy Review

The latest mathematical analysis of NFL coaching decisions from our friend William Krasker takes a closer look at Seattle's clock management snafus against St. Louis (Russell is right, they should have run three times and punted) as well as the Tuna's controversial decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 43-yard line in the fourth quarter. I also like William's analysis of Denver's 4th-and-goal play at the Carolina goal line.

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12 Oct 2004, 01:27pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 5 DVOA Ratings

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 5, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week brings us the first adjustments for opponent, and those adjustments separate the top four teams in the league. Philadelphia has played a difficult schedule, New England an average schedule, and Seattle and the Jets easy schedules. Plus more on which teams look better or worse than the stats indicate so far, and TV announcers who can't tell a quarterback from an offensive tackle.

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12 Oct 2004, 01:15pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: Free the Inactive Seven

Football Outsiders -- still home of the "official unofficial" TMQ discussion thread. This week, Gregg Easterbrook introduces you to seven guys who get paid for doing nothing, discusses possible football-related presidential debate questions, and ponders the Single Most Fouled Up Play in NFL history. Hint: It involves the Buffalo offensive line.

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11 Oct 2004, 12:43am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA vs. Yards Per Point

One of the more popular statistics for rating the best NFL teams, particularly with gambling touts, is yards per point. It's come up on this site recently, particularly regarding the 2001 Patriots. Does it really recognize an offense's ability to efficiently turn drives into touchdowns, or a defense's ability to "bend but not break" by keeping points allowed down even if the other team drives down the field? How does it compare to DVOA, the play-by-play breakdown rating we use here at Football Outsiders?

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