01 Sep 2004, 07:02am by Aaron Schatz
When Ricky Williams retired last month, it was thought to be a massive blow to the Miami Dolphins. It was, but only emotionally. The team on the field might actually be better. In this article from Slate.com, Aaron explains why the star running back is the most overrated player in football and makes the case for running back by committee.
01 Sep 2004, 04:18am by Aaron Schatz
In which many of the questions posed by readers about the 2004 DVOA projections are answered in one fell swoop. (What the heck is a "fell swoop" anyway? Can you have two fell swoops?)
31 Aug 2004, 01:42pm by Aaron Schatz
Long awaited, never duplicated, here are the 2004 Football Outsiders DVOA projections based on complicated formulas that take into account everything from red zone performance to recent drafts to tenure of coordinators. If they prove accurate, the 2004 equivalent of the 2003 Panthers and 2001 Bears/Patriots will be the New York Jets.
19 Aug 2004, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz
For months now, we've been asked the same question: "How can DVOA rate the Green Bay defense as better than the Green Bay offense?" For months now, we've promised an explanation. Now, in an article originally written for Brassey's Pro Football Forecast 2004, we deliver. Read this article to discover why Green Bay is one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 6.
16 Aug 2004, 04:58am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA and DPAR measure the best running backs in terms of value, but what about consistency? Some running backs are always putting their teams in the position to grab another first down, and others are "home run hitters" that mix highlight-reel runs with lots of 2-3 yard carries. Football Outsiders has a new stat that measures how often a running back has success. Originally called "Running Back Batting Average," it is now called "Running Back Success Rate."
13 Aug 2004, 04:47am by Aaron Schatz
Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers started the year 2-6 as midnight struck and turned Tommy Maddox's comeback back into a pumpkin. And yet, our team ratings ranked the Steelers at #16 at the season's midpoint, and still ranked them at #16 after the season ended. Why do so many people think the Steelers crashed and burned, when in reality they were an average team? A lesson in the distortive power of strength of schedule, and why Maddox wasn't the main reason the Steelers went 6-10. Plus, important information for those who purchased, or plan on purchasing, our book Brassey's Pro Football Forecast.
12 Aug 2004, 09:58am by Aaron Schatz
Saying that the San Francisco 49ers are going to look different this year is a bit like saying that Tom Cruise looked different by the end of Vanilla Sky. Has a team ever turned over so many skill positions in one offseason? Actually, the answer is yes, but never in quite the same way. Aaron and Russell look back into the NFL's past to see if we can discern the 49ers' future.
05 Aug 2004, 11:26am by Aaron Schatz
Tennessee defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is well-known for using statistical analysis to improve his game plans. He started reading our website after the playoffs and has shared his ideas with us. Now he answers some questions for our readers, discussing how he takes analysis similar to ours and uses it to improve his team on the field. He also talks about his relationship with position coaches, what to expect from his defense this year, and an honest scouting report on the offenses of the NFC South (since he doesn't have to play them for another three years).
02 Aug 2004, 01:43pm by Aaron Schatz
Aaron on the big year Clinton Portis should expect in Washington, and the big shoes he leaves behind in Denver. Quentin Griffin fans are not going to be pleased.
25 Jul 2004, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz
Or, as the article was originally titled, Ricky Williams is Pretty Much Screwed. Perhaps Ricky knew this and it helped him make his decision. Here's the article we wrote for the new book Pro Football Forecast, when everyone thought Ricky was coming back for 2004 and wanted to know if he would return to his 2002 performance level. Read and learn something you didn't know about Eric Dickerson -- and something Ravens fans won't want to know about Jamal Lewis. Plus, some comments on possible Ricky replacements, and the picture that clearly shows why Miami is in trouble.
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