13 Sep 2004, 10:50am by Aaron Schatz
Peter King starts his column today in the exact same way I was planning on starting my column tomorrow -- by reminding everyone not to get carried away by the results of Week 1. But he's pretty excited about the Cleveland Browns anyway. From his description of the game, an improved defense was a big part of keeping Jamal Lewis in check. Of course, we all know that 370+ carries in 2003 was also a big part of keeping Jamal Lewis in check... probably for much of this season. Peter also reveals that there will now be a Tuesday version of MMQB.
09 Sep 2004, 02:33pm by Aaron Schatz
With Hurricane Ivan heading ashore, the Titans and Dolphins have agreed to move their game to Saturday at 1 p.m., the NFL announced today. Unfortunately, the game will only be televised in the Miami and Tennessee areas by CBS. On the important side, how many of these huge storms are going to hit Florida this year before the whole state just collapses? I know when you live down there you expect to be hit by a hurricane every so often but this is really terrible. Three in a row. I seriously feel for those people.
08 Sep 2004, 10:10pm by Aaron Schatz
Since Will Carroll began writing about baseball injuries, the word "medhead" has been added to the sports fan lexicon next to the word "stathead." We had a chance to ask Will to apply his knowledge to some of the NFL's high-profile preseason injuries, as well as players recovering from 2003 injuries. Learn why the labrum will not doom Rich Gannon as it did Robb Nen, why David Boston's injury was not too surprising, and why we can stop making Fred Taylor groin jokes.
08 Sep 2004, 05:24pm by Aaron Schatz
The astonishing conceit of the latest article from B. Duane Cross is that NFL and CFL statistics are equivalent.
08 Sep 2004, 12:31am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic that Football Outsiders uses to rate both teams and players, but I know it can get confusing. You constantly see percentages and those four letters and have no idea what the heck we are talking about because you just discovered Football Outsiders yesterday. So for all those who have just started reading the site in the last couple of months, I wanted to give another explanation of how it works and why DVOA is better than standard NFL statistics. Plus, we've made various improvements to our numbers starting today, and those changes are described here.
4 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:54am by honda scooter 250cc
01 Sep 2004, 07:02am by Aaron Schatz
When Ricky Williams retired last month, it was thought to be a massive blow to the Miami Dolphins. It was, but only emotionally. The team on the field might actually be better. In this article from Slate.com, Aaron explains why the star running back is the most overrated player in football and makes the case for running back by committee.
01 Sep 2004, 04:18am by Aaron Schatz
In which many of the questions posed by readers about the 2004 DVOA projections are answered in one fell swoop. (What the heck is a "fell swoop" anyway? Can you have two fell swoops?)
31 Aug 2004, 01:42pm by Aaron Schatz
Long awaited, never duplicated, here are the 2004 Football Outsiders DVOA projections based on complicated formulas that take into account everything from red zone performance to recent drafts to tenure of coordinators. If they prove accurate, the 2004 equivalent of the 2003 Panthers and 2001 Bears/Patriots will be the New York Jets.
19 Aug 2004, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz
For months now, we've been asked the same question: "How can DVOA rate the Green Bay defense as better than the Green Bay offense?" For months now, we've promised an explanation. Now, in an article originally written for Brassey's Pro Football Forecast 2004, we deliver. Read this article to discover why Green Bay is one of the favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy on February 6.
16 Aug 2004, 04:58am by Aaron Schatz
DVOA and DPAR measure the best running backs in terms of value, but what about consistency? Some running backs are always putting their teams in the position to grab another first down, and others are "home run hitters" that mix highlight-reel runs with lots of 2-3 yard carries. Football Outsiders has a new stat that measures how often a running back has success. Originally called "Running Back Batting Average," it is now called "Running Back Success Rate."