24 Nov 2004, 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz
The latest strategic analysis from our friend William Krasker looks at Mike Tice's decision to go for two with the score 19-13 and further discusses his theory on intentionally committing a penalty in the final two minutes. There's also the usual slate of fourth down choices, and although I'm usually in agreement with William that going for it is better, I disagree with the first situation here: Green Bay kicking a field goal on 4th-and-1 from the Houston 21-yard line. Yes, using generic NFL numbers the probability of a win if greater if you take the risk of going for it.
24 Nov 2004, 12:42pm by Aaron Schatz
Yay, more discussion of overtime! We can never get enough of this stuff. This article from Science News says that the coin flip didn't really determine the winner in overtime until they moved kickoffs back to the 30-yard line in 1994. Since then, the team that wins the flip has won more often in overtime. Of course, we have our own idea about how to solve this.
2 comments, Last at 06 Feb 2007, 8:21am by phenteramine
23 Nov 2004, 02:44pm by Aaron Schatz
Our man TMQ is back with his usual collection of Sweet Plays, Sour Plays, great blocks, and cheerleader photos. He also discusses Throwback Thanksgiving, satellite radio, the Grey Cup, and Aaron Brooks' continued loss of sanity when it comes to certain pass plays.
23 Nov 2004, 02:29pm by Aaron Schatz
Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 11, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week the Big Three become the Big Four as the Indianapolis Colts make their case as a top Super Bowl contender. Do they have the defense to do it? And just how amazing was Edgerrin James' day in Chicago? Plus, Buffalo is special, Arizona is not, and Kansas City annoys me in more ways than one.
23 Nov 2004, 12:37am by Aaron Schatz
Here is the chat transcript from over at Baseball Prospectus. Thanks to everyone who asked questions!
5 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 9:21am by honda odyssey go kart
23 Nov 2004, 12:12am by Aaron Schatz
Itâ€™s another edition of our mailbag, where Aaron answers your questions related to VOA and other statistics from Football Outsiders. This week: Is Brett Favre better when the Packers are losing, or when they are winning? Why are the Lions ranked so much higher in our offensive rankings than in the NFL's rankings? And is there any way we could measure how well teams defense short passes compared to long passes?
22 Nov 2004, 04:16pm by Aaron Schatz
This week's gimmick at ESPN.com Page 2's Snap Judgment is letters home for Thanksgiving. We put words in the mouths of Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, and Marc Bulger. Plus, this week's DPAR quarterback ratings from yours truly along with the usual commentary, and Brett Favre saves the world -- AGAIN!
22 Nov 2004, 02:15pm by Aaron Schatz
Peter King thinks Eli Manning did a fine job yesterday even though he didn't win. I'll agree with him and add that I've never seen a game that made me more annoyed that the NFL has such a haphazard way of tracking dropped passes. I wish I could include them in my measurements so poor Eli would rate better. How many passes went right out of the hands of Toomer and Shockey yesterday? I know he caught the touchdown but Shockey is mightily overrated. His hands are horrible.
19 Nov 2004, 01:35pm by Aaron Schatz
Eight teams in the AFC are 6-3 or better. Only six can make the playoffs. Who is in, who is out, and can anyone keep the Patriots and Steelers out of the AFC Championship Game? Aaron analyzes the first half of the season in the NFC through the Football Outsiders lens and predicts which teams will improve and decline with the brand new Midseason DVOA Projection System.
18 Nov 2004, 11:18pm by Aaron Schatz
The latest strategy review from our friend William Krasker includes a long discussion of Herman Edwards vs. the clock. Did you ask yourself if the Jets should have taken a delay of game instead of calling timeout? Krasker asked the same question and has an answer. Plus, Tampa Bay goes for it on 4th-and-1 and fails instead of kicking a game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter. You know William favors going for it most of the time (and so do we) but is that even true when the field goal would tie the game late?