Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 May 2004, 01:39pm by Aaron Schatz

Rock Cartwright vs. DeShaun Foster

One running back ran for 429 yards on 113 carries. The other running back ran for 410 yards on 107 carries. So how come the player often described as a star of the future is at the bottom of our DVOA ratings, while the third-string ex-fullback is listed as above average? A trip inside the world of DVOA...

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13 May 2004, 02:44am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA Gets Another Upgrade

In our neverending battle to improve our statistics, we present a new iteration of our DVOA formula that correlates even better with wins, scoring, and future performance.

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10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

Even More Complete Failures

And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.

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07 May 2004, 04:03am by Aaron Schatz

Complete Failures

Quarterbacks are judged on their completion percentage, but not every complete pass is a successful play. Introducing a new statistic that tells which teams padded their numbers with short passes, failed third down conversions, and the dreaded reception for a loss of yardage.

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28 Apr 2004, 02:32am by Aaron Schatz

You Say Tomato, I Say Future Pro Bowler

At this point, we all know that NFL draft report cards are a bit silly, and that you can't truly judge a draft until those players have been in the league for a couple of years. So instead of a report card, Aaron presents a report about report cards. He's examined eight different sets of draft grades to find out which teams caused the most disagreement among the pundits.

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26 Apr 2004, 06:03am by Aaron Schatz

Pass Defense: Tight Ends, Backs, and Slot Receivers

Two weeks ago, we looked at how defenses did against number one receivers compared to number two receivers. Here's part two of that article, examining how defenses fared in 2003 against the opposition's other receivers. Discover the strange magic of the Indianapolis nickel package, San Diego's weapon against the Chiefs, and the secret Achilles heel of the New England pass defense.

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13 Apr 2004, 12:06pm by Aaron Schatz

Pass Defense: Easy as One, Two, Three

Say it loud, it's back and proud. Did ya miss DVOA over the last few weeks? Did ya? Today, the first of two part articles breaking down defensive performance against different types of receivers. Which teams do the best job against the other team's studs... and which teams do the best job against the men considered "number twos?" There's reason for Ty Law to gloat, and Champ Bailey too, but who the heck is Charles Tillman? And what kind of defensive measure could be led by Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City?

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03 Mar 2004, 06:31am by Aaron Schatz

The Misunderstood Rams

Football Outsiders' DVOA statistics say that the Rams had an average offense in 2003, and the second-best defense in football. Huh? Aren't the Rams an offensive juggernaut? Aaron goes through the season game by game to show how the Rams' 12-4 season was driven by the Most Ignored Show on Turf, the St. Louis D.

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27 Feb 2004, 10:13am by Aaron Schatz

2003 Schedule: The Rich Get Richer

No, not an article from the Dennis Kucinich campaign website, but an analysis of the strange phenomenon that was the 2003 NFL schedule. Our schedule strength rankings say that all the best teams had easy schedules, and all the worst teams had hard schedules. We thought that was strange too, until we looked at 2003 strength of schedule using just regular old wins and losses.

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17 Feb 2004, 03:21am by Aaron Schatz

2002 and 2003 DVOA Ratings Refined

A review of changes to how DVOA ratings are computed, including a new improved baseline that combines 2002 and 2003 plays and changes to the importance of special teams.

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