04 Dec 2004, 03:08am by Aaron Schatz
In Philadelphia, the Packers and Eagles each match their greatest strength against their opponent's greatest weakness. It's America's chance to decide: Who are we more tired of hearing about, Terrell Owens or Brett Favre? And when Denver and San Diego play for the AFC West title, all eyes will be on the tight end. But will it be the right tight end? Two big games analyzed Football Outsiders-style in this article from Friday's New York Sun.
30 Nov 2004, 11:36pm by Aaron Schatz
The latest strategy review from our friend William Krasker looks at Mike Martz's fake field goal, Arizona kicking a 21-yard FG at the end of the first half, and Dat Nguyen not being an idiot. Two notes: First, William is working on another summary article for us that revisits strategy decisions from Weeks 7-12, so if you want him to further analyze a specific decision please mention it in the comments here. Second, if you feel like these articles have become overwhelmed by coaches making stupid decisions not to go for it on fourth down, you aren't alone.
30 Nov 2004, 04:34pm by Aaron Schatz
That's Gregg Easterbrook's nickname for the Colts, for extremely confusing reasons. He also calls for moratorium on praising Brett Favre. Preach on, brother Easterbrook! Does anyone who does not work for a major network disagree with that idea?
30 Nov 2004, 01:29pm by Aaron Schatz
Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings after Week 12, along with Aaron's usual commentary for the math-o-phobic. This week, we explain why certain teams have DVOA ratings that don't quite match their won-loss records, and where the gap comes from. Also, experience the anger of Tampa Bay and Denver fans as I reprint an email discussion among the FO staff, and a special hidden message for Buffalo Bills fans.
29 Nov 2004, 02:40pm by Aaron Schatz
This week's Snap Judgment looks at Brett Favre's consecutive games streak, the worst quarterback of the year, and the Cleveland-Cincinnati silliness. Of more interest to FO readers are my QB ratings, which starts with an extended commentary on Peyton Manning in which I actually run the numbers to find out if Manning is padding his stats or not. Manning haters and Manning lovers will both want a look.
29 Nov 2004, 02:11pm by Aaron Schatz
Peter King thinks we were all too quick to write off the Indianapolis defense (and, to a lesser extent, the Minnesota defense). Yes, they have looked better over the last two weeks -- against Craig Krenzel, Joey Harrington, and Mike McMahon. As Pulp Fiction's The Wolf might say, let's not go pleasuring our respective Cheneys just yet.
2 comments, Last at 05 Jan 2007, 2:48pm by amputation
28 Nov 2004, 08:42pm by Aaron Schatz
These ratings have been listed as "coming soon" longer than the next album by Guns 'n' Roses, but today we finally continue our look back at previous seasons through the lens of DVOA. In 2000, two teams dominated the DVOA ratings, but they didn't meet in the Super Bowl -- because they were both in the same division. Plus, revisit the horribly messed up 2000 Buffalo Bills, the team that may have simultaneously demonstrated the worst special teams and the worst coaching decision in NFL history.
6 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:03am by ruth van sickle ford
27 Nov 2004, 01:31am by Aaron Schatz
We know the Eagles and Falcons are in, but who else in the NFC will stand up and claim a playoff spot? In this article from Friday's edition of the New York Sun, Aaron looks at what the Giants, Seahawks, and Vikings have to do in order to take another step towards the postseason this Sunday.
1 comment, Last at 02 Jan 2007, 11:00am by Skin Tag Removal
24 Nov 2004, 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz
The latest strategic analysis from our friend William Krasker looks at Mike Tice's decision to go for two with the score 19-13 and further discusses his theory on intentionally committing a penalty in the final two minutes. There's also the usual slate of fourth down choices, and although I'm usually in agreement with William that going for it is better, I disagree with the first situation here: Green Bay kicking a field goal on 4th-and-1 from the Houston 21-yard line. Yes, using generic NFL numbers the probability of a win if greater if you take the risk of going for it.
24 Nov 2004, 12:42pm by Aaron Schatz
Yay, more discussion of overtime! We can never get enough of this stuff. This article from Science News says that the coin flip didn't really determine the winner in overtime until they moved kickoffs back to the 30-yard line in 1994. Since then, the team that wins the flip has won more often in overtime. Of course, we have our own idea about how to solve this.
2 comments, Last at 06 Feb 2007, 8:21am by phenteramine