Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Sep 2004, 01:13pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Commentary: Week 1 Strategy Review

Our friend William Krasker begins his regular weekly analysis of NFL strategy using his complicated Dynamic Programming Model. Among Bill's contentions: Steve Mariucci screwed up by not going for two when Detroit went ahead 19-14, the Dolphins punted three times on 4th-and-1 when they should have gone for it, and Joe Gibbs should have gone for a touchdown from the Tampa 2-yard line at the start of the second quarter. Go give Bill's site some love, his stuff is excellent.

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15 Sep 2004, 05:29pm by Aaron Schatz

One for the Junk Stat Hall of Fame

Our buddy King Kaufman on America's favorite new NFL stat, pass speed. "You'll be happy to know that one of Brett Favre's throws Monday night was equivalent to starting a campfire without matches in four minutes flat, completing the Sunday New York Times crossword in one hour, 37 minutes and 53 seconds, and getting to third base with the prom queen by midnight on the second date. " (requires watching advertisement)

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1 comment, Last at 05 Oct 2006, 12:18am by The Mulgrew

14 Sep 2004, 04:56pm by Aaron Schatz

2001 DVOA Ratings and Commentary

Our long-awaited look at previous seasons through the lens of DVOA, starting with 2001. This is the season where the ratings correlate the worst with actual wins, and so there are some strange doings, starting with the team that won the title. Join us as Aaron says something that will make his fellow Patriots fans very, very angry.

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3 comments, Last at 22 Feb 2007, 10:36pm by parochial school

14 Sep 2004, 02:10pm by Aaron Schatz

TMQ: By the Hammer of Grabthar, They Were Avenged!

Gregg shockingly doesn't lead his article this week with Mike Vanderjagt's FG miss. Instead, he talks about the Denver offensive line system, gives props to Drew Brees, and makes probably the only reference to Fielding Mellish in the history of NFL commentary. Don't worry, Idiot Kicker gets three reader haikus further down the page.

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13 Sep 2004, 02:08pm by Aaron Schatz

Snap Judgment: QB or not QB?

I am curious to see what people think of ESPN's new weekly Monday Page 2 column analyzing quarterbacks. It features the usual Page 2 folks, and a couple of new ESPN people including Michael "not David" Smith, ex- of the Boston Globe.

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13 Sep 2004, 10:50am by Aaron Schatz

MMQB: Playing It Smart

Peter King starts his column today in the exact same way I was planning on starting my column tomorrow -- by reminding everyone not to get carried away by the results of Week 1. But he's pretty excited about the Cleveland Browns anyway. From his description of the game, an improved defense was a big part of keeping Jamal Lewis in check. Of course, we all know that 370+ carries in 2003 was also a big part of keeping Jamal Lewis in check... probably for much of this season. Peter also reveals that there will now be a Tuesday version of MMQB.

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09 Sep 2004, 02:33pm by Aaron Schatz

Ivan Forces Titans-Dolphins to Saturday

With Hurricane Ivan heading ashore, the Titans and Dolphins have agreed to move their game to Saturday at 1 p.m., the NFL announced today. Unfortunately, the game will only be televised in the Miami and Tennessee areas by CBS. On the important side, how many of these huge storms are going to hit Florida this year before the whole state just collapses? I know when you live down there you expect to be hit by a hurricane every so often but this is really terrible. Three in a row. I seriously feel for those people.

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08 Sep 2004, 10:10pm by Aaron Schatz

Football Outsiders Interview: Will Carroll

Since Will Carroll began writing about baseball injuries, the word "medhead" has been added to the sports fan lexicon next to the word "stathead." We had a chance to ask Will to apply his knowledge to some of the NFL's high-profile preseason injuries, as well as players recovering from 2003 injuries. Learn why the labrum will not doom Rich Gannon as it did Robb Nen, why David Boston's injury was not too surprising, and why we can stop making Fred Taylor groin jokes.

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08 Sep 2004, 05:24pm by Aaron Schatz

Moon Shines Among All-Time QBs

The astonishing conceit of the latest article from B. Duane Cross is that NFL and CFL statistics are equivalent.

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08 Sep 2004, 12:31am by Aaron Schatz

DVOA Re-introduced and Refined

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic that Football Outsiders uses to rate both teams and players, but I know it can get confusing. You constantly see percentages and those four letters and have no idea what the heck we are talking about because you just discovered Football Outsiders yesterday. So for all those who have just started reading the site in the last couple of months, I wanted to give another explanation of how it works and why DVOA is better than standard NFL statistics. Plus, we've made various improvements to our numbers starting today, and those changes are described here.

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4 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2007, 8:54am by honda scooter 250cc