Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Dec 2003, 03:33am by Aaron Schatz

Week 14 Team Efficiency Ratings

This week, Aaron explains why the Patriots aren't number one even though they are number one, why the Chiefs are still riding high off Week 8, and why Jake Plummer may have been even better than Clinton Portis this week. Plus, the introduction of yet another new metric, the FOREST INDEX, that combines DVOA with measures of consistency and late-game ability (now explained for stat geeks on a separate page). Lots of commentary here, and graphs!

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04 Dec 2003, 01:33pm by Aaron Schatz

Five Showdowns

Five big games this weekend match the first place and second place team in a division. Aaron takes an Outsiders-style look at different trends and tendencies of the teams involved to show you what to look for on Sunday.

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03 Dec 2003, 03:59am by Aaron Schatz

Building a Better Mousetrap

Never let it be said we don't take constructive criticism here at Football Outsiders. Responding to one of two common complaints, here is a new attempt at weighting our VOA ratings so they better reflect the current abilities of teams.

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02 Dec 2003, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 13 Team Efficiency Ratings

Why do our VOA ratings have some teams ranked far higher than public perception? The answer lies in teams that have improved or declined since the season began. Aaron breaks the season in half to show which teams are on the rise. Plus, the final word on Tampa's inconsistency, Jon Gruden vs. Dennis Erickson, Miami's lame offense goes nuts on the previously great Cowboy D, and more commentary for the math-o-phobic.

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25 Nov 2003, 12:13pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 Team Efficiency Ratings

The latest VOA ratings are here, measuring how each NFL team has performed on a play-by-play basis. And yes, those losing-record Tampa Bay Bucs are back at #2. Could they share a fate with the team that finished surprisingly high in last year's ratings despite an 8-8 record? Hint: One year later, that team is 10-1.

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18 Nov 2003, 01:30pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 11 Team Efficiency Ratings

Here's the latest run-through of the VOA ratings, which compare every single play in the NFL to league average based on situation. The gap between Kansas City and the rest of the NFL actually widens despite the Chiefs' loss, Carolina brings back memories of the 1998 Arizona Cardinals, and the AFC North struggles to produce an actual winning team.

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13 Nov 2003, 02:28pm by Aaron Schatz

NFC Midseason Report

Aaron breaks down every team in the NFC, complete with DVOA ratings split into pass and rush, special teams ratings split five ways, and projections of every team's final win-loss record. All the stats are ranked 1-32 to help you figure out where your team tops the league and where it comes up short. Even more commentary than the AFC article, including a section on Carolina and Tampa Bay that is longer than the odds on Arizona making the playoffs.

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11 Nov 2003, 03:05am by Aaron Schatz

Week 10 Team Efficiency Ratings

Out of last week's top ten teams, five lost and two more were on bye. So you can imagine that the VOA ratings have gone through some changes. Kansas City's still in the top spot, and they are pulling away from the rest of the NFL. Plus, comments on St. Louis-Baltimore and Miami-Tennessee, and a detailed discussion of what statistics can and cannot tell you.

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06 Nov 2003, 02:19pm by Aaron Schatz

AFC Midseason Report

Aaron breaks down every team in the AFC, complete with DVOA ratings split into pass and rush, special teams ratings split five ways, and projections of every team's final win-loss record. All the stats are ranked 1-32 to help you figure out where your team tops the league and where it comes up short. Plus, obnoxious commentary for the math-o-phobic, featuring pop culture references of Milleresque randomness.

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05 Nov 2003, 02:09pm by Aaron Schatz

Maroon Zone vs. Scarlet Zone

In the final TMQ, Gregg Easterbrook introduced the idea of The Maroon Zone, the area between the 30 and 40-yard lines that often is the barrier between punting and scoring. Or is it? We compare performance all over the field to winning and scoring and discover an even more important new area: The Scarlet Zone.

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