25 Jul 2004, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz
Or, as the article was originally titled, Ricky Williams is Pretty Much Screwed. Perhaps Ricky knew this and it helped him make his decision. Here's the article we wrote for the new book Pro Football Forecast, when everyone thought Ricky was coming back for 2004 and wanted to know if he would return to his 2002 performance level. Read and learn something you didn't know about Eric Dickerson -- and something Ravens fans won't want to know about Jamal Lewis. Plus, some comments on possible Ricky replacements, and the picture that clearly shows why Miami is in trouble.
2 comments, Last at 30 Jul 2009, 9:18am by Reliable but
21 Jul 2004, 11:14am by Aaron Schatz
From July 2004, here's our look at what to expect after the renewed enforcement of illegal contact, along with a 2005 update on where we were right, and where we were wrong. Hint: The prediction of one veteran receiver's first 1,000-yard season was right on the money.
8 comments, Last at 13 Jun 2005, 5:33pm by Jeff F
19 Jul 2004, 06:31am by Aaron Schatz
In which, having given up on stopping the inevitable Tom Brady debates, we try to give them their own space. I believe the Army tried this with the Hulk once, at which point he destroyed half of New Mexico. Note: This ridiculous, irrational Brady-Manning debate is not reflective of the intelligence of the rest of this website.
76 comments, Last at 26 Jul 2012, 4:29pm by theslothook
08 Jul 2004, 02:00am by Aaron Schatz
It started as an article about Terrell Owens moving to the Eagles. Look closer, however, and an interesting pattern emerges. Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Keyshawn Johnson, Owens: all of them declined in 2003. What is in store for the greatest wide receiver draft class of all time as they enter their ninth seasons in the NFL?
22 Jun 2004, 11:07am by Aaron Schatz
The Green Bay Packers are one of the teams at the forefront of using statistical analysis to improve on-field performance, and the man who leads that effort is Director of Research and Development Mike Eayrs. Aaron recently had a chance to ask him a few questions about his career and the work he does with the Packers.
15 Jun 2004, 12:53pm by Aaron Schatz
Last week's article on run defense spawned a good discussion that featured a lot of interesting questions. Aaron buries his nose in the Football Outsiders NFL database (don't let it fall into the wrong hands!) to find the answers.
1 comment, Last at 05 Aug 2005, 8:46pm by David Brude
08 Jun 2004, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz
In which Aaron attempts, yet again, to pierce a hole in the conventional wisdom among football writers that says run defense is the best indicator of a team's playoff chances.
18 May 2004, 01:39pm by Aaron Schatz
One running back ran for 429 yards on 113 carries. The other running back ran for 410 yards on 107 carries. So how come the player often described as a star of the future is at the bottom of our DVOA ratings, while the third-string ex-fullback is listed as above average? A trip inside the world of DVOA...
13 May 2004, 02:44am by Aaron Schatz
In our neverending battle to improve our statistics, we present a new iteration of our DVOA formula that correlates even better with wins, scoring, and future performance.
10 May 2004, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz
And, yea, did the readers of Football Outsiders request new data. They wanted to see the list of failed completes re-ordered by the percentage of total pass plays. They wanted to see the list of failed completes by defense rather than offense. And, yea, did the Football Outsiders comply, and left the analysis up to the readers.