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28 Aug 2012, 04:13pm by Danny Tuccitto
SITE NEWS: 2012 Wisdom of Crowds
Unless you get sadistic pleasure out of watching Richard Bartel short-arm out routes, last night's Hall of Fame game lacked entertainment. Not to worry, loyal FO reader, NFL entertainment returns today in the form of our "Wisdom of Crowds" feature. Over the next four weeks, we'll use our @fboutsiders Twitter account to get your fantasy projections for a player or two each day.
At the end of each week, I'll compile the responses, and have a post the following week about what our readership had to say. Last year, you were pretty darn prescient.
So, if you want to participate, make sure to follow us on Twitter, and check in every day for the next month.
0 comments
10 May 2013, 05:23am by Danny Tuccitto
Andy Reid Loves True Sophomore Running Backs
I'm in the midst of working on a running back projection model that will run in Football Outsiders Almanac 2013, and came across this incredible (at least to me) factual nugget: From 1999 to 2013, there have been 431 college running backs who either were invited to the NFL combine or were drafted despite no combine invitation. Of those 431, 266 amassed some amount of DYAR over the course of their NFL careers.
Of those 266 running backs, only three got drafted as true* sophomores, and their names are LeSean McCoy (2009), Dion Lewis (2011), and Bryce Brown (2012, though his situation was much more complicated). You don't have to be Mike Tanier to notice that the Andy Reid-era Philadelphia Eagles were responsible for all three picks.
Obviously, McCoy's track record speaks for itself and Brown was a dynamic replacement in limited action last season, so this isn't a critique. Rather, it's simply an observation worth relaying to our readership; I have no clue (as yet) what to make of it in relation to the larger picture of projecting college backs.
Discuss.
*Five other running backs since 1999 have been drafted as redshirt sophomores: Willis McGahee (2003), Knowshon Moreno (2009), Ryan Williams (2011), Ronnie Hillman (2012), and Lamar Miller (2012).
12 comments, Last at 12 May 2013, 10:17am by Doc Beara
07 May 2013, 02:48pm by Danny Tuccitto
Four Downs: AFC East
The Patriots need the pass rush to step up, the Bills need more consistent work from their cornerbacks, the Dolphins hope Johnathan Martin can adequately protect Ryan Tannehill, and Geno Smith hopes he has someone to throw to in New York.
24 comments, Last at 10 May 2013, 11:11am by Anonymous1
25 Apr 2013, 02:08pm by Danny Tuccitto
Historical Draft Efficiency: Best and Worst Picks
Tom Brady woke up sucking on a lemon. He's one of the best draft picks in NFL history, but not No. 1. Everything in its right place.
48 comments, Last at 04 May 2013, 10:44am by MC2
16 Apr 2013, 12:10pm by Danny Tuccitto
Historical Draft Efficiency: College Rankings
Which colleges have produced the most relative value in the draft? Start with Miami, LSU, Pitt, and a surprisingly productive SWAC school.
57 comments, Last at 27 Apr 2013, 7:23pm by Ryan Quincy
11 Apr 2013, 11:39am by Danny Tuccitto
Historical Draft Efficiency: Best and Worst Drafts
Ranking 1,094 draft classes is hard, especially when your three metrics say different things. Luckily, they do agree on the four best and the single worst. Pictured: A modern-day metaphor for what happened to one of the best.
86 comments, Last at 01 May 2013, 8:10am by dmstorm22
09 Apr 2013, 04:49pm by Danny Tuccitto
2013 SSAC Football Analytics Panel Video
If you're interested, the video from this year's football analytics panel at the MIT Sloan conference is finally online. Andrea Kremer moderated; panelists were Rams COO Kevin Demoff, 49ers COO Paraag Marathe, former Patriots and Chiefs executive Scott Pioli, and -- drum roll, please -- Football Outsiders progenitor Aaron Schatz.
I was there, and I'm not saying this because he pays my bills, but Aaron was the star of the discussion. To be fair, though, he was basically the only one at liberty to offer blunt opinions. (I'd say full-throated, but he had lost his voice the day before.)
In any event, click for "Armanti Edwards, c'mon!" Stay for the DeAngelo Hall takedown.
5 comments, Last at 11 Apr 2013, 11:26pm by Insancipitory
02 Apr 2013, 10:33am by Danny Tuccitto
Historical Draft Efficiency: Franchise Rankings
Since 1970, two franchises have been really good at drafting; two have been really bad. All four are in the AFC, but New England isn't one of them.
77 comments, Last at 29 Apr 2013, 10:16pm by RSpang
26 Mar 2013, 12:25pm by Danny Tuccitto
Historical Draft Efficiency: An Introduction
Over the next month, we'll be using stats to answer interesting questions about NFL draft history. First, we need an efficiency model that's optimized for comparing across eras.
43 comments, Last at 03 Apr 2013, 1:13am by Scott C
12 Mar 2013, 06:45pm by Danny Tuccitto
2012 Adjusted Games Lost for Team Units
The first thing Andy Reid did when he moved to Kansas City was ask Jeff Fisher for a copy of "Facial Hair Secrets for Injury Prevention."
12 comments, Last at 15 Mar 2013, 7:21pm by efox