Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

03 Oct 2017, 07:43pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 4 DVOA Ratings

Opponent adjustments have arrived for the first time in 2017, but they can't hurt the Kansas City Chiefs: No. 1 again and undefeated despite playing one of the league's ten toughest schedules so far.

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86 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2017, 10:38am by DezBailey

02 Oct 2017, 07:42pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Mailbag: DVOA vs. Receiver Types

Looking at the difference between DVOA vs. types of receivers and the stats that are more useful for DFS. (Click to read more.)

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6 comments, Last at 05 Oct 2017, 9:16pm by Vincent Verhei

02 Oct 2017, 12:16pm by Aaron Schatz

Ranking NFL Divisional Rivalries Best to Worst

Great piece from Jason Lisk over at the Big Lead, ranking all 48 divisional rivalries based on how often games are close, how often they are important, how often there are upsets, and how long the rivalry has lasted. Baltimore-Pittsburgh is No. 1 because of four playoff meetings and a lot of close games. Giants-Eagles, Chiefs-Raiders, and surprisingly, Jets-Dolphins follow. Dead last is Baltimore-Cleveland, although there's an emotional component to that one that didn't really make it into the formula. (The real least interesting rivalry is probably No. 47, Indianapolis-Houston.)

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16 comments, Last at 06 Oct 2017, 2:09pm by DisplacedPackerFan

29 Sep 2017, 11:36am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Will Defense Doom Patriots?

Can the Patriots possibly win the Super Bowl with defense this bad? The answer is probably not, but the defense is not likely to be this bad all year. Still, it won't be as good as expectations, and that means the Pats are no longer prohibitive favorites. On the other hand, the team that ranked 32nd in defense after three weeks of 2016 almost won the Super Bowl. This article is free, not Insider.

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3 comments, Last at 02 Oct 2017, 9:40am by PatsFan

28 Sep 2017, 07:58pm by Aaron Schatz

Off The Charts Podcast: September 28

This week on the Off The Charts podcast, we expand upon this week's DVOA commentary to talk about why Pittsburgh is a surprising No. 2 and Atlanta is surprisingly not No. 2. We also hit Tankapalooza and talk about whether the Giants or Chargers should consider moving on from their aging quarterbacks after this season. Then Mike Tanier joins us to talk about his Bleacher Report piece on the Seahawks' struggles and what he's seen this year from the Philadelphia Eagles.

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26 Sep 2017, 07:12pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 3 DVOA Ratings

Kansas City is No. 1 in DVOA after three big wins, but Atlanta is surprisingly not No. 2... or even close. Plus: What if we put in opponent adjustments a little earlier than normal? It helps the NFC East.

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86 comments, Last at 03 Oct 2017, 5:11pm by junglejoe_lv

22 Sep 2017, 11:20am by Aaron Schatz

Off The Charts Podcast: September 21

This week on the Off The Charts podcast, we talk about the new downfield passing of Carson Wentz and Alex Smith, and the issue of whether throwing to Jarvis Landry too much hurts the Miami offense. Special guest is NFL scout Ryan Hollern, formerly of the Saints and Bills, who discusses prospects he's had his eyes on early in the season. Does the scouting match the analytics?

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21 Sep 2017, 12:14pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Best Coordinators of the Past 25 Years

Or, the Wade Phillips List. The headline here doesn't quite get at what we were trying to do, which was look at coordinators with success at multiple stops. So we only included those coaches who have led units for at least three franchises in the last 25 years. Al Saunders and Ernie (not Ken) Zampese top the offensive list, Phillips the defensive list, and Scott O'Brien the special teams list. (Dave Toub has only worked for two franchises, so he didn't qualify to be listed.)

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18 comments, Last at 23 Sep 2017, 12:04pm by Shattenjager

19 Sep 2017, 07:59pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 2 DVOA Ratings

The 2-0 teams are on top, led by No. 1 Baltimore and the best defensive DVOA ever measured through Week 2. The 0-2 teams are on bottom, except for the Los Angeles Chargers, who are cursed.

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55 comments, Last at 26 Sep 2017, 10:41am by DezBailey

19 Sep 2017, 02:06pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Ranking 0-2 Teams by Playoff Odds

You've all heard those stats about how only 12 percent of teams since 1990 have made the playoffs after starting 0-2. Yet at least one team has done it each of the past four seasons. Who has the best chance this year? Unfortunately, the best 0-2 team so far is also stuck in a division with three 2-0 teams.

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5 comments, Last at 19 Sep 2017, 5:40pm by JoeyHarringtonsPiano