Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Mar 2015, 01:48pm by Aaron Schatz

Vikings Deal Matt Cassel to Bills

Well, the Bills certainly are tired of being ignored in the headlines. Second day, second trade. They will send those infamous "undisclosed draft picks" to Minnesota for Matt Cassel. Cassel is the very definition of a replacement-level quarterback and will replace Kyle Orton, who was slightly better than that. Have fun throwing endless screen passes to Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy, Matthew.

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70 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:27pm by bloggesrdog

27 Feb 2015, 01:24pm by Aaron Schatz

The Combine Survivor Effect

For years now, analytics people have been attempting to find some sort of correlation between NFL combine results and success in the league, so we can use the combine to provide some guidance on who should be drafted, and when. For the most part, these studies fail to find any connection. Even when we play around with combine results here at FO, we don't really get good forecasts unless we blend them with college game stats, as in Playmaker Score and SackSEER. This is a really interesting theory from Brian Burke over at Advanced Football Analytics explaining why this is.

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3 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:28pm by bloggesrdog

23 Feb 2015, 12:45pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: 2015 RB Speed Scores

Here are your Speed Scores for running backs who ran the 40 at the 2015 combine. Matt Waldman fave Karlos Williams is this year's Speed Score champ and a big-time sleeper. Melvin Gordon did fine. Colorado State's Dee Hart is undraftable.

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23 Feb 2015, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Four Downs: NFC South

Winston or Mariota? How about neither? If Lovie Smith and the Bucs are smart, they'll try to trade out of the first overall pick.

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46 comments, Last at 02 Mar 2015, 1:12pm by tuluse

16 Feb 2015, 05:45pm by Aaron Schatz

Introducing Expected Contract Value

Great series over the past week on the website OvertheCap.com featuring a new metric by Bryce Johnston. The idea here is to come up with a metric for measuring the value of a contract that gives us the most accurate accounting of how much of the contract is likely to be earned by the player. Johnston used regression analysis to determine that roughly 80 percent of the decision-making about when to cut NFL players is driven only by the numbers of the contract, not the actual value of the player.

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17 comments, Last at 24 Feb 2015, 2:33pm by Never Surrender

13 Feb 2015, 07:25pm by Aaron Schatz

Want to Help FO? It's Guest Column and Extra Points Submission Time!

Hey, readers. I just wanted to remind everyone that the offseason is the best time for Football Outsiders to be running guest columns. You can submit your ideas or rough drafts to us at mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com. We're looking for deep stat analysis and new ideas or theories, although we're willing to look past that for excellent film analysis or Tanier-level humor. Please excuse the fact that we're sometimes very slow to respond to e-mails. We do get to them all, we promise.

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09 Feb 2015, 07:09pm by Aaron Schatz

NFL Films Founder Ed Sabol Dead at 98

Sabol was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011 and was given a Lifetime Achievement Emmy in 2003. His son Steve, of course, passed away due to brain cancer two years ago.

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7 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog

09 Feb 2015, 12:48pm by Aaron Schatz

MMQB: The Super Bowl According to Tom Brady

Good MMQB today by Peter King, in-depth interviews as Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady review their strategy going into the comeback drives in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIX. Among the tidbits: they basically realized the only way to beat the Seahawks was death by a thousand paper cuts. Also, updates on the various cheating scandals around the league and whether Darren Sharper should cause us to question the Hall of Fame standards which state players should be considered for football only.

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2 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:29pm by bloggesrdog

03 Feb 2015, 04:39pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Madden 15 Ultimate Team for Super Bowl XLIX

Here's our announcement of the four men who starred in Super Bowl XLIX and will be new Football Outsiders-branded elite players for Madden 15 Ultimate Team this weekend. (Click to read more.)

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1 comment, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 4:30pm by bloggesrdog

29 Jan 2015, 03:27pm by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XLIX Preview

Possibly the closest Super Bowl matchup in history also poses the question: how much does it mean when certain aspects of an NFL team improve dramatically in the second half of the season?

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277 comments, Last at 01 Feb 2015, 6:56pm by BigPoppa