Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Nov 2017, 11:33am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Playoff Odds After Week 12

The latest playoff odds report for ESPN Insider dives deeper into our simulations for the 2017 postseason. Find out why Atlanta looks like it will make the playoffs despite the hardest remaining schedule, and why Jacksonville is much more likely than Tennessee to win the AFC South, plus more.

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28 Nov 2017, 07:26pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

The Rams rise again, with Los Angeles and Philadelphia now 1-2 in DVOA and 2-1 in Weighted DVOA. Plus: the big Arizona upset doesn't change the fact that the Jaguars are challenging an all-time DVOA high while the Cardinals challenge an all-time DVOA low... and Miami challenges TWO all-time DVOA lows!

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100 comments, Last at 02 Dec 2017, 11:13am by sandbun

23 Nov 2017, 01:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 Open Game Discussion

Here's your open discussion thread for all the Week 12 action, starting with the Thanksgiving tripleheader of Minnesota at Detroit, Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas, and New York Giants at Washington. Then use this thread to discuss all of Sunday's action, especially the big New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams game.

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116 comments, Last at 27 Nov 2017, 1:23pm by justanothersteve

22 Nov 2017, 08:17pm by Aaron Schatz

Off The Charts Podcast: November 22

The Off The Charts podcast is a bit early this week. We talk about Andy Reid and protege Doug Pederson going in different directions, try to figure out what the Buffalo Bills are doing, and look at Tankapalooza and the Class of 2018 QBs. Plus, previews of Houston at Baltimore and New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams.

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21 Nov 2017, 08:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

DVOA has finally climbed on board the Wentz Wagon! The Eagles move into the No. 1 spot, but they aren't the only strong, well-balanced team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and the Los Angeles Rams make this one of the best seasons ever for multiple teams over 30% in DVOA, and Minnesota isn't far behind.

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79 comments, Last at 07 Dec 2017, 10:55am by MC2

21 Nov 2017, 06:46pm by Aaron Schatz

Raiders Fire DC Ken Norton

Well, it was nice for the Raiders to do this right after I sent out a bunch of tweets about how bad their defense is. Oakland is 32nd in defensive DVOA right now. If the season ended today, the Raiders would have the second-worst pass defense in DVOA history, one-tenth of a percent behind the 2015 Saints.

The Raiders are allowing a 72.3 percent completion rate. Joe Flacco has only four games this year with 200 passing yards, only three completing 70 percent of passes, and only three with no interceptions. There's only one game where he did all three things. It was against Oakland.

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14 comments, Last at 27 Nov 2017, 2:20pm by Bright Blue Shorts

21 Nov 2017, 05:55pm by Aaron Schatz

SITE NEWS: Half-Season Premium Specials / T-Shirts Return!

Time to announce a couple of new special half-season premium products. (Click to read more.)

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2 comments, Last at 23 Nov 2017, 4:01am by Andrew Potter

21 Nov 2017, 01:20pm by Aaron Schatz

New York Jets: Culture of Celebrated Mediocrity

Good article here by Jets blogger Joe Caporoso pointing out how badly the Jets have built their roster. Essentially, the Jets have spent the most money on the least important positions. They have gone cheap at quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback, and left tackle. They pay heavy for 3-4 defensive linemen, safeties, and guards. Combine that with a history of celebrating non-playoff seasons as moral victories, and you end up with a team that seems like it will go 6-10 until the end of time.

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13 comments, Last at 25 Nov 2017, 6:32pm by serutan

16 Nov 2017, 01:27pm by Aaron Schatz

Off The Charts Podcast: November 16

This week on the Off The Charts podcast: Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor benching, the decline of the Denver pass defense, and previews of Rams-Vikings and Seahawks-Falcons. Plus, Nick Underhill of The New Orleans Advocate comes on to talk about the New Orleans Saints' suddenly stalwart defense. (Click for audio link.)

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15 Nov 2017, 12:09pm by Aaron Schatz

Bills Bench Taylor, Start Peterman

I don't even know where to start with this decision. I don't know why the Bills have been so intent on getting rid of Tyrod Taylor, but the time to do it is the offseason not the midseason. The guy is the most underrated quarterback in the game, he's been average this season according to DVOA, and you're going to bench him for a fifth-round rookie? A lot of Bills fans complain that the problem is too many third-down checkdowns to Mike Tolbert. Well, Taylor's ALEX on third down was 4.0 in 2015, 2.6 in 2016, and then 0.1 this year. Maybe the checkdown problem isn't about Taylor himself.

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92 comments, Last at 19 Nov 2017, 10:54pm by The Ninjalectual